IGM | Informa Connect

As this week comes to a close, what does the week ahead look like? A focus on flash PMIs, European wages and the Fed's Powell at Jackson Hole... We posed the question last week in our headline for the week ahead asking which is most important US CPI or jobless claims, but in the end it was the US retail sales report that helped the most to improve investor sentiment. The usual safe havens, the Franc and the Yen, have been this week's worst FX performers, but it is notable that the Usd hasn't been able to mount much of a recovery. Today's comments from the Fed's Goolsbee and the weak US housing numbers has soured sentiment this afternoon, as we look ahead to next week. Explore further here: https://lnkd.in/eVa6bNeP #IGM #FX

[THE ENDGAME] : The Great Debate Henry Clay vs Stephen A. Douglas, Harlow Shipley vs Heber Curtis, Samuel Wilberforce vs Thomas Huxley, Donald Trump vs Kamala Harris. Nope, it's none of these. It's the 25bp vs 50bp great debate. It appears to be a foregone conclusion that a rate cut is coming. But does the latest CPI data warrant a 50bp rate cut by the Fed next month? 💭 Take a read Ken Jaques, Head of US Credit, IGM explores this >> https://lnkd.in/eyh657RK #IGM #credit #IG

Things That Stick Out: Wednesday Edition Wednesday sees another red flag raised over global macro with a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. It wasn’t a complete surprise, but the rapid shift in outlook is rather noteworthy. As recently as May, the Kiwis were still talking rate hikes and said they wouldn’t consider easing until the second half of next year. So reports that a larger 50 basis point reduction was even considered at today's meeting smacks of panic. Undoubtedly, it’s a reflection of the state of play in China, which accounts for about one-third of New Zealand’s exports. But it’s also a warning for the soft-landing camp in the US as to how quickly conditions may be deteriorating. See: Things That Stick Out: Friday Edition  and Things That Stick Out: Risk-Off Edition See original IGM post here: https://lnkd.in/ej3S-zjs IGM | Informa Connect #inflation #interestrates #nzd #rbnz #newzealand #china #financialmarkets #macroeconomics

Global insights. Local expertise. IGM is the global source for independent, actionable expertise on the credit, rates and foreign exchange markets. Request your free trial to get access to: > Instant access to concise bond deal info > Live, self-sourced deal postings > Comprehensive asset class services  > Up to 80 key data points, including NICs & Books > 25 years of historical data, fully exportable to Excel > Real-time pipeline and priced deals tables and more! Request your free trial now! >> https://lnkd.in/gBHQcbnb #IGM #bonds #credit #FX

Request your free trial of IGM today! 💡 We're now offering exclusive free trials of our cutting-edge platform. Be amongst the first to discover how our stories and real-time data can give you the competitive edge you need! IGM is the primary source for live, trusted syndicated bond data and intelligence, and a leading provider of insight on market-moving events in foreign exchange and rates markets. Don't be the one missing out! Request your free trial now >> http://spr.ly/6049Y8SDT #IGM #bonddata #FX #rates #credit

Things That Stick Out: Yen Edition, Part 2 Funny how all the attention on the ‘yen carry trade’ is almost entirely focused on the yen side of the trade but not the other, presumably things that earn higher rates of interest or are meant to benefit from positive economic trends. Now that the BOJ has sent out its deputy governor to express remorse for daring to raise rates, the yen is back in its box and the carry trade’s 15 minutes of notoriety appear to be over. Smiles everyone! Maybe not. What’s equally plausible is that the recent decline in stocks and bond yields is simply a reaction to an economy that is losing momentum. While the yen’s appreciation kicked loose some leveraged positions in spectacular fashion, a deteriorating macro landscape is the primary driver. For weeks, we’ve been seeing red flags in procyclical commodities and FX that had nothing to do with the Japanese yen and rather reflect intensifying headwinds. See chart below and Things That Stick Out: Risk-Off Edition So in our opinion, any relief rally inspired by a weaker yen from here is meant to be faded and not chased. See original IGM post here: https://lnkd.in/eQ3AaHcr IGM | Informa Connect #economy #yen #boj #Japan #financialmarkets #commodities #metals #fx

IGM Global Credit Snapshot - July 2024 ✅ Key takeaways include: 1️⃣ Overall European issuance dipped in July in line with summer ‘norms’ but that trend was bucked by the FIG and HY sub-sectors. The YTD total passed through the EUR1tn marker and remains around 10% higher than last year. 2️⃣  APAC saw the wind taken out of its sails in the latter half of the month with July’s total of USD24.619bn (incl. Japan) marking a sharp decline from the USD35.384bn seen in June. That said, it was still sufficient for July to record the third highest month of the year so far 3️⃣  IG ex-SSA issuance in the US for July 2024 was USD125.504bn - the second-highest ever for the month, surpassing July 2017's USD120.33bn and coming just behind July 2015's USD128.48bn. The surprisingly large haul brought the year-to-date ex-SSA new issue volume to USD1.009tn, or 23.1% ahead of this time last year Take a read of the full snapshot by Gavin Kendrick below, and sign up to your free IGM trial now to access regular industry updates: https://lnkd.in/gBHQcbnb #IGM #credit #Euro #USD

There seemed little to no chance of issuance yesterday, given what had transpired in equity markets (and markets more generally) during Monday's session... However, high quality issuer KfW demonstrated its ability to get a deal done even against the toughest of backdrops on Tuesday, with a GBP650m long 5yr sterling deal that also pushed total 2024 supply above the GBP100bn mark! Joint leads were Bank of America, NatWest Markets Plc, Santander and TD. Read the full report here: https://lnkd.in/g83z_6US #IGM #credit #issuance

Did you miss our July review of European structured finance? There was plenty more to keep market participants busy outside of primary market activity in July. The ECB kept rates unchanged as expected, as did the Fed, while markets have fully priced in reductions at the central banks’ next meetings in September. Download the full report to catch up on all the insights 👉 http://spr.ly/6040Y1P0e #IGM #credit #finance

Things That Stick Out: Yen Edition For nearly three decades, Japan’s easy monetary policy served as a cheap funding source and an anchor for the price of money globally. And because the Japanese maintained NIRP for the last two years while the rest of the world was raising rates, the yen offered an attractive workaround that allowed leverage to flourish despite the intentions of Western central bankers. The ‘yen carry’ trade takes many forms, but all are implicitly short of the yen. Now that the Japanese are raising rates, and the ROW is beginning to cut, these carry strategies are getting squeezed by a rising yen on one side, and by declining global growth prospects on the other. The question becomes, how big of an aggregate position do these trades represent? According to the Wall St Journal Monday, cross-border lending in yen by Japanese banks amounted to about $1.75 trillion. We’re unable to confirm but have heard that the number is as high as $4 trillion. Either way, this isn’t something that’s going to get sorted in just a few days. See original IGM post here: https://lnkd.in/eDTgS9Jb IGM | Informa Connect #inflation #interestrates #Japan #boj #yen #carrytrades #federalreserve #finanialmarkets #fx #jpy