Cornwall Insight

The Climate Change Committee has issued its 2024 Progress Report to Parliament, highlighting that UK emissions are less than half the levels they were in 1990 but warns that only a third of the emissions reductions required to achieve the country’s 2030 target are currently covered by credible plans. To this end, it outlines a number of priority actions for the government. Some of these have seen progress already, such as the removal of planning barriers to onshore wind and intentions to reverse electric vehicle policy rollbacks.

Ofgem recently announced that they are investigating several energy suppliers regarding their smart meter rollout performance last year. In FY23, suppliers’ rollout performance had improved compared to the previous year but still fell short of the target by 1.7mn installations. Some major suppliers only reached 64% of their target and others exceeded it by 1945%. Are you aware of your competitors’ targets, their performance, and their new targets for this year? As part of our Home Supply and Services offering, we keep our customers up to date with the smart meter rollout performance. To find out how suppliers performed against their targets, please contact us here: https://lnkd.in/geermGXS  

Our upcoming report with Smart Energy GB explores how technology that allows EV users to sell electricity back to the grid during peak times could be a game changer for EV driver's electricity costs. Before the launch, our Senior Consultant Jacob Briggs shared his insights with The House Magazine - click on the link in their post below. You can also find out more on the report here: https://lnkd.in/etXNvcxt

Our latest Benchmark Power Curve report shows that by 2030, solar, onshore, and offshore wind are set to provide only 44% of Great Britain's electricity. Well below the 67% required to achieve the government's 2030 zero-carbon target. The government's plans to double onshore wind, triple solar power, and quadruple offshore wind capacity would require extensive increases beyond current 2030 projections. This is forecast to cost an additional £48bn on top of the £18bn the current infrastructure buildout is already predicted to cost. Attracting investment into the country is going to be critical to delivery. Increased funding for schemes such as Contract for Difference might attract more business by providing greater returns, but significant global bottlenecks remain. Read our coverage in the Financial Times: bit.ly/4d2DSOE Discover more by downloading our GB Benchmark Power Curve summary report. You can find the latest summary reports on all our covered markets here: bit.ly/3WdEM41. Curious about the future of energy? Unlock exclusive insights with our 30-year price forecasts, capacity mix projections, and technology-specific forecasts. Discover more here: bit.ly/46HW1y6

We have a training course, ‘Flexibility Academy’ from 3-6 September, which will demystify how balancing services are evolving to meet the challenge of a more decentralised and low-carbon electricity system, recent outturn value trends, and the type of assets featuring in flexibility markets. Learn more about the course and book your spot today: Flexibility academy - energy market training (cornwall-insight.com) 

Cornwall Insight is renowned for our energy forecasting in the GB market, but did you know we also cover several other energy markets? Our comprehensive energy modelling service spans Australia, Ireland, Germany, and Japan.   Discover more about all our Benchmark Power Curves here: bit.ly/3WdEM41 We also have dedicated LinkedIn pages for the Australian and Irish energy markets. Follow Cornwall Insight Australia to stay updated on the NEM energy market including our Frequency Control Ancillary Service curve. For updates on the SEM market and insights into navigating the Renewable Electricity Support Scheme, follow Cornwall Insight Ireland.

It's not too late to register for our 'Flexibility market signals for the electrification of heat' webinar on Tuesday 23 July. Join us, WSP and National Grid ESO as we explore the current market landscape for heat electrification and associated signals for demand flexibility. Register here: https://lnkd.in/ewsbme_b

The King's speech provided some welcome clarity on the new government's plans to accelerate the green energy transition. With such ambitious goals, the government will need to show quick progress to assure both industry and consumers that it will meet its manifesto promises. We expect the legislation on Energy Independence and Great British Energy announced in the speech, to be the driving force behind industry wide change, turning policies from ideas on paper into real, tangible progress. Early signals from Labour have mirrored pre-election promises on making the UK a clean energy superpower, including a lift on the de facto ban on onshore wind and granting approval of three large solar PV projects. However, they face significant challenges in reaching their 2030 power decarbonisation targets, as financial constraints, supply chain challenges, and intense global competition for limited resources pose hurdles. Structural issues we’ve previously seen act as a barrier to decarbonisation – notably how the electricity market works and issues with planning and grid access – will become prominent and more urgent. While we now have some detail on the plans, the industry will no doubt press for more clarity on reforms. Investors and operators will be eager to see certainty and progress on existing programs, such as REMA, which seem to have been relegated to the side-lines. Detail on how Great British Energy's involvement would accelerate a mature market like offshore wind isn't yet known. Much reform will be dependent on availability of regional experts, for example partnerships with the National Wealth Fund and planning reform are expected to draw on local government resources. While initial signals have been positive, there is considerable external pressure to maintain momentum and demonstrate how promises can be realised. If you have questions about how changes to the energy landscape might affect your organisation, our Consultancy team is here to help. Gain access to comprehensive independent analysis, research, and market intelligence, and ensure your business stays ahead in the ever-changing energy market. Contact us here: https://bit.ly/3XXln9K

Our Green Certificates Survey for July 2024 is now open and will run until 5 August. If you’re interested in learning about how the green certificates markets are currently developing, this a great opportunity to gain insight into current pricing levels from those in industry. Participants from across generator/producer, supplier and broker organisations are invited to take part in the survey and will receive the headlines summary findings as a thank you for participation. Take the survey here: https://lnkd.in/enYKTihh

Yesterday the ESO released the 2024 edition of the Future Energy Scenarios report, which included updated modelling and new more strategic pathways to credibly reaching net-zero by 2050. View the report here: https://bit.ly/4cH2AnP Here are our key takeaways: ➡ New emissions modelling and a slower roll-out of low-carbon technologies results in future Carbon Budgets being met with less headroom and relying on more Bio Energy with Carbon Capture (BECCS) to meet them. ➡ Modelling of network constraints & all three aspects of the energy trilemma (security, sustainability, and affordability) has seen a 7GW increase in the minimum forecasts of BESS capacity by 2050. ➡ The government's ambition of up to 24GW of nuclear generation by 2050 is missed in all pathways but is higher than FES 2023, reaching 22GW in the most ambitious case. ➡ Decisive action must be taken within the next two years to reach net-zero by 2050 across areas like network investment; planning reform; and heat decarbonisation A full analysis of the report will feature in next week’s Energy Spectrum. Find out more about Energy Spectrum and our Industry Essentials service, here: https://bit.ly/3sdjk45 Customers can access our Industry Essential’s Daily Bulletins, weekly Energy Spectrum’s and webinar recordings here: https://bit.ly/4d1NARg