WDPN33 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 26W (TORAJI) WARNING NR
019//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 21.1N 114.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 73 NM SOUTH OF HONG KONG
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 22 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), AS THE COLD
CENTRAL COVER IS SIGNIFICANTLY SHEARED NORTHEASTWARD, AND SLOWLY
TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT IS EMBEDDED IN THE
LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD SURGE. TS
26W IS BECOMING MORE SHALLOW AS IT IS TRANSITING THROUGH THE HIGHLY
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ANIMATED EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
131355Z ASCAT UHR PASS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY COLD SURGE

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 44 KTS AT 131329Z
   CIMSS ADT: 37 KTS AT 131730Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 35 KTS AT 131730Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 42 KTS AT 131800Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 25-26 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: FOLLOWING THE CONVECTIVE DECAPITATION, THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY THE NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD SURGE FLOW THROUGH THE TAIWAN STRAIT.
TS 26W IS THEREFORE FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 12, AFTER WHICH THE LLCC WILL START TURNING
SOUTHWESTWARD,
WHILE RAPIDLY DETERIORATING, DUE TO HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS.
THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DISSIPATION AT TAU 24 FOLLOWED BY THE
INTENSITY DROP BELOW THE WARNING CRITERIA AT TAU 36.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
IN REGARD TO THE TRACK, PREDICTING A SOUTHWESTWARD CURVING TURN
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AS ALL CONSENSUS MEMBERS SHOW RAPID
WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM, THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IS RELATIVELY
LARGE, DUE TO DIFFERING PREDICTIONS FOR TIMELINE OF THE
DISSIPATION, HOWEVER INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS,
WHILE THE INTENSITY PREDICTION IS CONSISTENT WITH ALL MEMBERS
SHOWING DISSIPATION BY TAU 36.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
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