Oxford Economics

What is the biggest risk to the global economy right now? In a LinkedIn Poll last week we asked, our followers, what you thought the current biggest risk to the global economy is and 60% of voters believed that the biggest risk to the global economy was geopolitical tensions. In our latest Global Scenarios Service Survey, we asked our clients the same question and here are their responses. We then we developed and analysed the impact of these scenarios on the baseline forecast based on different financial conditions and demand projections, which you can discover in our latest report: https://okt.to/sv0h8B #EconomicOutlook #GlobalTrends #ScenarioAnalysis

UK buyers are willing to pay more for homes with high EPC rating Using econometric analysis on a dataset containing 11 million registrations, we estimate the impact of an Energy Performance Certificates (EPC) rating on the UK residential property price. Our research shows that consumers are willing to pay 3.4% more for a high energy efficient home (A or B rated) compared with Band D. Despite the benefits, cost remains to be the largest barrier to preventing improvements. And government programs like the Energy Company Obligation (ECO) have not been effective enough. Read more in our latest blog: https://okt.to/6fJzuG

How are the US Elections affecting downside risk? While our short-term outlook for the global economy has largely remained steady over the past quarter, the balance of risks around the base case has become more negative. Our subjective odds assigned to the US election outcomes have shifted to a toss-up between Harris and Trump, highlighting the extreme uncertainty surrounding this election. Learn more about our Q3 IFRS 9 and CECL scenarios: https://okt.to/SKZTWg #IFRS9 #CECL #USElections2024

Asia Pacific will contribute more than half of a 1.7ppt nominal growth acceleration in global US$-measured tech spending in 2025. In real terms, regional spending growth is set to slow to 7.6% from 10.2% in 2024. Still, the growth is faster than in Europe (4.3%) and Americas (5.1%). 📌 Download our latest research briefing or speak to our team in APAC to learn more: https://okt.to/p93ABy #AsiaPacific #AI #Semiconductor

Which megatrends are supporting the top industrial markets? Our Commercial Real Estate Megatrend Resilience Index ranks the resilience of CRE markets across regions and sectors in relation to four critical megatrends: demographics, technology, geopolitics and climate. Within the industrial sector, Singapore, the UK and Australia are taking the lead, with demographics and technology the key driving megatrends. Climate scores well for the sector overall. For the full index and rankings, check out here: https://okt.to/pHRr8d #Megatrends #CRE #realestateresilience

An industrial tale of three regions: EU struggles, China grows, US thrives Our latest forecasts for the global industrial sector, based on September data, show that the EU’s industrial output will shrink by 0.7% this year, a massive downgrade from our previous forecast of 0.1% growth. The poor outlook for European industrial output offsets positive signs in the other major global economic powers, with the United States’ industrial output forecast to grow by 1.9% in 2024 while China is expected to enjoy a relatively strong whole-year industrial growth of 5.5% this year. Over the longer run, we expect higher productivity growth through 2050 for the US, due in part to the adoption of new technologies like generative AI. Read more in our blog: https://okt.to/eqBfSi

Despite higher risks of hurricanes like #Helene, we still expect metros in the southeastern US to be among the fastest-growing in the country over the next five years. In a recent research briefing, we show that many of the fastest-growing US metros over the next five years are among those most at-risk from natural disasters: https://okt.to/7Cu6VX The risks of hurricanes and flooding have done little to curb the strong population growth of many southeastern US metros in the past few years, as people have been attracted to the robust metro economies in Florida and South Carolina. But the destruction left in the wake of Hurricane Helene demonstrates the natural hazard risks facing an increasing number of people in the US. #cities #population #migration #climatechange

Middle East Tensions Rising: How Will It Impact the Global Economy? Find out more: (https://okt.to/53jLDy Israel’s invasion of southern Lebanon and Iran’s missile attack have raised tensions, pushing oil prices above $75 per barrel. How Israel responds will shape the economic fallout. Economic Risks: According to Oxford Economics’ Global Scenarios Service, the probability of a regional war has heightened. If this scenario unfolds, global GDP growth could drop by 0.4 percentage points in 2025, with oil prices spiking to $130 due to disrupted supply chains. Impact on the GCC: The GCC could see a 1.5% GDP decline this year due to energy and tourism disruptions, but higher oil prices might offset some of the damage. MENA in a minute with Scott Livermore #MiddleEast #OilPrices #GlobalEconomy #MIAM

China-Taiwan tensions: Where will hurt, and how hard? China-Taiwan tension is emerging as a critical global risk. According to our risk survey, 20% of businesses that view China-Taiwan tensions as a significant risk to the global economy over the next two years. To help businesses quantify the impact, we have developed a global framework showing cross-country GDP vulnerabilities to an escalation in China-Taiwan tensions. Our analysis reveals that an escalation could extend beyond the region, with East Asia, Germany, US among the most vulnerable. Download our full infographic for detailed insights: https://okt.to/ZViwtO

How can you measure indirect climate and sustainability risks across your portfolios? Join our next climate focused webinar on 8th October https://okt.to/GKzdVw Attendees will discover: • The growing importance of climate and sustainability risks in portfolio management. • How hidden supply chain risks can affect the performance of your portfolio. • A demonstration of our advanced capabilities, designed to analyse and manage climate risks. • Results from a back testing experiment using real market data that highlights how applying our ‘indirect climate risk scores’ can boost portfolio performance. #sustainability #climaterisk #portfoliomanagement