Quais são as melhores práticas para escolher e aplicar indicadores de previsão EVM?

The iEAC is a calculated forecast of the cost at completion factored by the past historical cost and schedule performance, SPI & CPI. It aims to statistically assess the ‘Integrity’ of a bottom up estimate & current forecasts. iEAC = ACWP ((BAC- BCWP)/CPI*SPI) If CPI & SPI are equal to 1, the formula will output a result equal to the future budget for the remaining work the actual costs to date. But if the CPI and SPI is less than 1, the formula outputs an outturn cost that reflects past performance & will be greater than the budget for the remaining work, the actual costs. iEAC is used to assess the reasonableness of the bottom up forecast. A bottom up forecast should be completed annually & updated with risk & trends, monthly.

Correction to one statement…TCPI does not indicate “the project’s efficiency” but rather the CPI necessary, for the remaining work (BCWR), to achieve the EAC.

Pour que cette méthode fonctionne, il faut être capable de traduire un planning très détaillé comportant un avancement en valeur par rapport à un budget très macro. Qui l'applique réellement ?

What Does £10M negative Schedule Variance Mean? Depending the activities behind schedule in the baseline, the project may/not be behind, if activities are on/near the critical path the project could be behind, but the delay may relate to other non critical issues. Accurate SV relies on baseline change & extension of time being implemented in a timely manner. The project needs to review the CP before knowing if the project is delayed. SV/SPI converge to 1 near the end of the project. CV accuracy is dependent on timely implementation of change into the baseline. If change is not implemented in a timely manner, CV analysis should take account of the change that has not been implemented into the baseline and has contributed to the variance.

I’d also like to add that schedule variance analysis should include “are we doing the right work at the right time?” This often occurs when a positive schedule variance is indicated.

EVM forecast indicators are used to support decision making and should be applied monthly to provide guidance and illustrate where the project may have cost and schedule pinch points, and for the leadership team to support or challenge the reasonableness of the project teams bottom up forecast.

The implementation of EVM systems and process will not solve a projects difficulties but will help drive: - • greater performance clarity • involvement from the delivery teams • consistent and standardised reporting at all levels of the project • early warnings notice to allow mitigation actions to be established to help change cost and programme overs run. Ultimately it will help ensure project performance information is readily available to assist with informed cost and programme decision making.

It ultimately comes down to fidelity of planning in the first place. Percentage of LOE and how material/sub EV is taken. If you put the effort into the planning up front or in your rolling waves, then you have a chance for it to be more meaningful. I have been partial to the dance floor plot metric.

Understanding the customer's priorities, the structure of the work breakdown structure, and how the lower level tasks roll up, and lately with supply chain impacts, how the flow of invoices for subcontractors and materials may impact your effort are critical.

Establishment of EVM systems should be setup & alined to ANSI-748 & should ensure the integration of programme & cost reporting, they key points to address are: 1. Organisation, 2.Planning & Budgeting, 3. Accounting, 4.Reporting, 5.Data Maintenance. It is documented, project cost & schedule overruns at the 20% point will not be less than the overrun to date. Which means if a project has a CPI of 0.85, at the 20% point, it will likely maintain that level of cost performance through the reminder of the project & may not improve, but is likely to decrease. This is because, if a project underestimated the near-term planning (when detailed known plans should be in place) there is little hope the project will do better on the long-term planning.