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Israel

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Will Israel hit Iran's nuclear sites in 2024?20% chance
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Will a state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?5% chance
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Will a state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 10,000 deaths before 2025?6% chance
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When will there be an Israel-Hamas temporary ceasefire?
4%
December 1st or earlier
10%
January 1st or earlier
90%
No ceasefire in 2024
Resolved
NO
May 1st or earlier
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[Metaculus] Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before November 5th, 2024?NO
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When will Gaza have a ceasefire? (before end of which month?) [Israel Hamas Conflict]
0.6%
Before the end of Aug 2024
0.3%
Before the end of Sep 2024
1%
Before the end of Oct 2024
7%
Before the end of Nov 2024
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Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel before the Israel–Hamas war ends?32% chance
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When will the hostilities in Gaza end?
3%
Nov 2024 or earlier
4%
Dec 2024 or earlier
5%
Jan 2025 or earlier
28%
Feb 2025 or earlier
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Will Israel win the 2023 Israel–Hamas war?62% chance
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[ACX 2024] Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024?97% chance
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[Metaculus] Will at least 500,000 Palestinians be displaced from Gaza before December 31st, 2025?10% chance
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Yahya Sinwar killed or captured by Israeli forces by end of 2024?YES
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Will Gaza be de facto controlled by Israel at the end of 2024?14% chance
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Will the International Court of Justice (ICJ) determine that Israel committed genocide in Gaza?26% chance
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