BLOCK ASSET MANAGEMENT

Los activos digitales alcanzan su fase clave económica. El ciclo alcista actual ha sido muy similar a los dos anteriores, lo que sugiere que ahora es el momento de expansión basado en los patrones históricos de los ciclos. Este ciclo ha mostrado la consistencia A/B/C actual y que ya casi está completada. Se espera otro impulso hacia arriba seguido de una expansión importante en el cuarto trimestre y una “Altseason” (rendimiento superior del mercado en general). Una condición clave para que esto suceda es la verdadera expansión del mercado. El impulso de BTC se aceleró en la fase uno del ciclo alcista actual cuando BTC alcanzó un nuevo máximo histórico (en marzo, liderado por los flujos de entrada del ETF de BTC y la expectativa en torno al halving en abril). Una verdadera expansión del mercado deberá estar impulsada por un comportamiento generalizado de los inversores de “riesgo”, con las capitalizaciones pequeñas superando típicamente a las grandes. ¡Observa el índice Russell 2000 para detectar señales tempranas de una “Altseason”! #Criptomonedas #InversiónDigital #Altseason

Digital Assets are entering their money-time zone. The current bull cycle has been very similar to the previous two, suggesting that now is the time for expansion based on historical cycle time patterns. This cycle is also consistent with the A/B/C consolidation currently at play, which is now almost complete. Another leg upward is then expected, followed by major expansion in Q4 and an ‘Altseason’ (broader market outperformance). A key condition for this to happen is true market expansion. BTC’s momentum accelerated in phase one of the current bull market cycle, when BTC experienced a new all-time high (in March, led by BTC spot ETF inflows and the hype surrounding the halving in April). A true market expansion will have to be driven by widespread ‘risk-on’ investor behaviour, with typically small caps outperforming big caps. Watch the Russell 2000 index for early signs of an ‘Altseason’! #Cryptocurrencies #DigitalInvestment #Altseason

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Varias gráficas fortalecen la tesis alcista. El Nasdaq alcanzó un nuevo máximo histórico, un evento que normalmente debería haber sido muy alcista para los activos digitales. No obstante, BTC disminuyó un 16% en los últimos dos meses (frente al 14% del Nasdaq), mostrando una desconexión (como a mediados de 2023) que debería resolverse al alza para BTC. Mientras tanto, la tasa de hash de BTC ha caído a niveles consistentes con la capitulación de los mineros. Históricamente, señales similares anteriores han proporcionado grandes puntos de entrada (ver 2023). Este análisis está corroborado por la fuerte caída en el Múltiplo de Puell, que ahora se acerca al área de 'compra profunda'. ¡El miedo ha vuelto! El índice de Miedo y Codicia ha alcanzado un nivel que ha proporcionado puntos de entrada atractivos durante este ciclo alcista. Finalmente, USDT, la stablecoin número 1, ha mostrado un crecimiento continuo este año, sugiriendo que la liquidez ha seguido entrando en activos digitales, éstos y BTC deberían recuperarse. Esos gráficos sugieren que la reciente liquidación ha proporcionado a los inversores puntos de entrada atractivos. En nuestra opinión debemos ser pacientes, esperamos un rally importante una vez que la corrección actual haya seguido su curso, probablemente en el cuarto trimestre #RallyCripto #ActivosDigitales #RecuperaciónDelMercado.

Several charts adding to the bull case. The Nasdaq composite jumped to new all-time-high, an event which should normally have been very bullish for digital assets. Nonetheless, BTC declined 16% in the last two months (vs 14% for the Nasdaq), showing a disconnect (like in mid-2023) which should be resolved to the upside for BTC. In the meantime, BTC’s hash rate oscillator has crashed to levels consistent with Miner capitulation. Interestingly, previous similar signals have provided great entry points, historically (see 2023). This analysis is corroborated by the sharp decline in the Puell Multiple, which is now nearing the ‘deep buy’ area. Fear is back! Fear & Greed Index has reached a level which has provided attractive entry points during this bull cycle. Finally, USDT, the number 1 stablecoin, has shown continued growth this year, suggesting that liquidity has kept entering the asset class and that BTC & digital assets should recover. Those charts suggest that the recent sell-off has provided investors with attractive entry points. Let’s be patient, we expect a major rally to take-off once the current correction has run its course, probably in Q4, in our opinion. #CryptoRally #DigitalAssets #MarketRecovery

📌 Bull market update : enough is enough? 👉 Over the past few days, all digital assets have seen significant declines. BTC is now down around 25% from its peak and many Altcoins are down 50 - 70% from their highs. 🤔 Is this the start of a new bear market? We don’t think so. The correction has been brutal but is not unusual (see chart below). Looking at the markets as a whole excluding the top 10, it appears that we are still in a normal wave 4 consolidation (with an ABC corrective pattern) within a primary uptrend (bull cycle). We are now in a major support zone and expect it to hold, as many of the technical indicators we cover are displaying deeply oversold readings. 👉 Although the current market action is disappointing, we must remember that the broader market could very quickly and substantially rise on the back of the first US ETH spot ETFs going live (attracting new liquidity for the entire ETH ecosystem and other Altcoins as well), a surprise change in the FED’s guidance (becoming more dovish), a change in investor risk appetite (we are currently back to fear territory), the election of a new US administration supporting more crypto friendly regulation. Many protocols are generating positive cash-flows, with billions in revenues overall (DeFi) and growing activity metrics. Adoption of digital assets by institutions has greatly increased so we are in a fundamentally better situation than 5 years ago. This will be reflected in prices sooner or later. Let’s be patient and take a longer-term view. 💡It’s worth remembering that the entire digital asset class is worth less than $ 2 trillion (tn) at current market levels. This compares with $16 tn for Gold, $115 tn for global equities and around $900 tn for all global assets. Therefore, this asset class has every chance of experiencing significant growth over the next few years. Manuel Ernesto De Luque Muntaner Kevin Ballard BLOCK ASSET MANAGEMENT #digitalassets #luxembourg Note : this chart shows the evolution of the total market cap ex top 10 (source: Tradingview), with some intermediate drawdowns highlighted (weekly, closing) and BAM's projections for the current cycle (based on EWA).

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Fin de la espera: Los inversores muestran impaciencia al inicio de la temporada alta. Los flujos de inversión han sido negativos recientemente, lo que sugiere que los inversores pueden estar perdiendo la paciencia después de una corrección prolongada de varios meses. Sin embargo, el momento de los inversores podría estar equivocado, ya que históricamente, comprar BTC entre 60 y 90 días después del halving resultó en aumentos de precio sustanciales. La consolidación lateral de BTC solo necesita un poco más de tiempo para resolverse, probablemente hasta septiembre de 2024. La próxima subida verá a las altcoins superando a BTC (también conocida como ‘Altseason’) ya que estamos en un mercado alcista confirmado (2º año). En el último ciclo, el resto de mercado (excluyendo las 10 principales) logró casi un retorno de 8x sobre BTC en solo 4 meses, desde diciembre de 2020 hasta mediados de mayo de 2021. Ahora no es el momento de abandonar la diversificación. Al contrario, debería ser uno de los principales impulsores de los rendimientos de los activos digitales en los próximos meses. #Altseason #InversiónCripto #MercadoAlcista

Time-capitulation is almost over: investors are losing patience as an Altseason gets underway. Investment flows have been negative recently, suggesting that investors may be losing patience after a prolonged correction of several months. However, investors’ timing might be off, as historically, buying BTC 60 to 90 days post-halving resulted in substantial price increases. BTC’s sideways consolidation just needs a little more time to resolve, probably until September 2024. The next leg higher will see Altcoins outperforming BTC (aka ‘Altseason’) as we are in a confirmed bull market (2nd year). In the last cycle, the broader market (ex top 10) achieved almost an 8x return over BTC in just 4 months, from December 2020 to mid-May 2021. Now is not the time to give up on diversification. On the contrary, it should be one of the main drivers of returns on digital assets in the coming months. #Altseason #CryptoInvestment #BullMarket