Donald Trump has been elected as the 47th President of the United States.🎉 Since COVID-19, the shipping industry, which has faced numerous challenges, has closely watched this U.S. presidential election given that the U.S. is the world’s largest importer. Lars Jensen has shared his predictions on the key impacts of Trump’s election on the shipping industry: • Expected Surge in U.S. Import Demand: With Trump’s election, the likelihood of increased tariffs is higher. As a result, there may be a short-term surge in U.S. import demand, especially for goods that can be stored long-term. • Supply Chain Shifts Due to U.S.-China Trade Tensions: Over the long term, we may see shifts in supply chains, such as Chinese goods being imported via Mexico. This could potentially lead to container shortages in certain regions. • Potential Strike on the U.S. East Coast: A strike is scheduled on the U.S. East Coast for January 15th, involving the ILA. The Trump administration may choose to intervene by applying the Taft-Hartley Act or by engaging in negotiations. • Ongoing Red Sea Crisis and Potential Shifts in Middle East Policy: The Red Sea crisis is expected to continue into 2025, with a potential shift in U.S. policy in the Middle East. However, it remains uncertain whether a resolution is achievable at this point. #DonaldTrump #Election #UnitedStatesofAmerica #ContainerShipping #Logistics #MaritimeIndustry
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Trump has won the presidential election in the US. This is not a political posting, but from a shipping perspective we should expect an added surge in US import demand in the short term as shippers with non-timesensitive goods will bring in more goods prior to any new tarriffs. As it is not known excatly how big such tarriffs might be, nor where they will apply and nor when this would happen it could amount to quite a demand surge. Longer term we should expect more changes in supply chain patterns as the US tradewar will be heating up. For US imports this would most likely entail more changes in sourcing patterns such as what we for example have seen with Chinese goods in recents years routed via Mexico. But we might also expect this to add a negative impact on US exports due to retaliatory tarriffs – and in turn increasing the imbalance between full and empty container flows. It also means that the issue related to a potential strike on the US East Coast from January 15th now has to be seen through the added question of whether or not a Trump administration would invoke Taft-Hartley and/or how they would engage with ILA and USMX to find an agreement. In Canada the port strikes on both East and West coasts continue, and the longer they drag on, the larger the impact on the tradeflows in the northern range of the US as well. At the same time Shanghai, Ningbo and Kaohsiung are seeing significant vessel delays as a ripple effect of typhoon Kong-Rey. Today is day 353 of the Red Sea crisis. The Houthies apparently are monetizing the crisis to the tune of 180 Million USD per month. The news outlet Maritime Executive has a story based on a UN report which is not yet released where this estimate is included. However, the story also says that the UN report states that the information regarding the money being made could not be independently verified - hence use caution in terms of the accuracy here. For the full story please see the link in the comments below. And as is also the case with the looming US East Coast strike on January 15th, the Red Sea crisis development in 2025 should also be contemplated in light of the presidential change in the US. Not that I have a crystal ball saying what Donald Trump will do or will not do in the Middle East crisis – I believe the only element that can be anticipated with some reasonable degree of certainty is that we might see a change in the US behaviour in the conflict. But whether that change will serve to resolve or escalate the complex conflict is hard to predict at this point. From a shipping perspective, however, it might be prudent to keep in mind that Trump's agenda is very much America-first, and the fact that most merchant vessels are not US-flagged (and hence American vessels) might weigh in on his policy decisions when the issue is specifically on shipping matters. #containershipping #redseacrisis #portstrike #trump #vesseldelay