Yup. The closest real-world example that I can think of is the current war in Ukraine. Cotton = natural gas. Ironclads = HIMARS. The domestic politics of Western nations play an outsized role in the conflict. Like Ukraine, the Freedman's Republic would be a nation with a lot of moral authority and support in the West. However, that support might not be enough to ensure statehood in the US, and could complicate peace negotiations with the confederacy. Ukrainians looking to join NATO and the EU would know the feeling.