About
Carlos Casanova is Senior Economist, Asia at UBP. Based in Hong Kong, he leads UBP’s macroeconomic research in Asia and serves as a key link between the Asian investment teams and global economic research. He is a key contributor to the global macroeconomic framework and supports the formulation of our Asia investment strategy.
He was most recently Economist, Asia Pacific at Coface, where he was responsible for managing the company’s research on Asian economies. He has also served as Economist for the Spanish multinational banking group Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA) in Hong Kong and the European Commission in Beijing.
Carlos holds an MA in International Economics from Johns Hopkins University, School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), and a BA Joint Honours from the University of London, School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS). He is fluent in Mandarin Chinese, English and Spanish.
Specialties: economics, emerging markets, Asia, China, FICC, international trade and and investments, wealth management, asset allocation.
Articles by Carlos
Activity
-
If you’ve ever visited the Louvre Museum in Paris, the OCBC Centre in Singapore or the Bank of China Tower in Hong Kong, then you’ve experienced the…
If you’ve ever visited the Louvre Museum in Paris, the OCBC Centre in Singapore or the Bank of China Tower in Hong Kong, then you’ve experienced the…
Liked by Carlos Casanova
-
Bittersweet. End of an era and the start of a new one. We bid farewell to “Bloomberg Markets Asia” and we’re launching a new show from Monday 21…
Bittersweet. End of an era and the start of a new one. We bid farewell to “Bloomberg Markets Asia” and we’re launching a new show from Monday 21…
Liked by Carlos Casanova
-
Michael Blake, CEO Asia, UBP - Union Bancaire Privée, features in the Opening CEO Thought Leaders Panel, "Charting the course – Strategies, skills…
Michael Blake, CEO Asia, UBP - Union Bancaire Privée, features in the Opening CEO Thought Leaders Panel, "Charting the course – Strategies, skills…
Liked by Carlos Casanova
Experience
Education
Licenses & Certifications
Publications
-
Africa’s rising commodity export dependency on China
BBVA Working Paper
China has played a decisive role in facilitating South-South cooperation, marking a clear departure from traditional North-South dominance. Nothing reflects this shift more clearly than bilateral trade flows. Trade has grown exponentially between Africa and China but, notwithstanding the continent’s commodity abundance, the region may have already accrued a trade deficit with China. Moreover, exports to China are remarkably concentrated around a limited number of products, all of which are…
China has played a decisive role in facilitating South-South cooperation, marking a clear departure from traditional North-South dominance. Nothing reflects this shift more clearly than bilateral trade flows. Trade has grown exponentially between Africa and China but, notwithstanding the continent’s commodity abundance, the region may have already accrued a trade deficit with China. Moreover, exports to China are remarkably concentrated around a limited number of products, all of which are classified as commodities. The nature of bilateral trade flows raises some alarms. China’s growth momentum has begun to dwindle and, more importantly, the growth model is being geared from investment towards consumption. For this reason, it is unlikely that the pace of growth in bilateral trade can continue, at least as concerns Chinese commodity imports from Africa. The extent to which a slowdown in bilateral trade will impact African exports depends on how vulnerable these commodities are to shifts in Chinese demand. To measure this, we have deployed an export dependency index for the major countries in Africa. Our index reveals that commodity dependence has increased overboard in Africa between 2005 and 2015. Looking at commodity dependence on China in absolute terms, it is apparent that the story in Africa is really about Angola, and Zambia, while on a commodity basis, dependence is largest in the case of mineral fuels. This increase in dependency has three major implications for Africa: 1) Trade dependency on China may have played a role in reducing the potential for interregional trade; 2) African countries need to develop policies that boost manufacturing and downstream processing capacity, and 3) Value retention also lies ahead as a big challenge for trade relations between Africa and China unless good policies are put in place.
Other authorsSee publication -
Measuring Latin America’s export dependency on China
In this paper we deploy an export dependency index to identify the sectors and countries in Latin America which are most exposed to fluctuations in Chinese demand.
Other authorsSee publication -
China's growing ODI: Where does it all go?
BBVA
We shed light on the magnitude and distribution of Chinese outbound foreign direct investment (ODI) as well as the factors that will accelerate its growth looking forward.
-
China’s ODI: How much goes where after round-tripping and offshoring?
BBVA
Chinese official statistics may be distorted by the presence of stop-over destinations such as Hong Kong and offshore centers in the Caribbean. In this paper we recalculate these flows in a way which accounts for these distortions, estimating the actual magnitude and distribution of China’s ODI and flows and stocks based on weighted averages. Our estimates show that Chinese ODI flows in 2013 may have been overstated due to the presence of round-tripping, dislodging previously held assumptions…
Chinese official statistics may be distorted by the presence of stop-over destinations such as Hong Kong and offshore centers in the Caribbean. In this paper we recalculate these flows in a way which accounts for these distortions, estimating the actual magnitude and distribution of China’s ODI and flows and stocks based on weighted averages. Our estimates show that Chinese ODI flows in 2013 may have been overstated due to the presence of round-tripping, dislodging previously held assumptions that the country is close to becoming a net exporter of FDI. Furthermore, the distribution of China’s ODI may be more diversified than previously thought, with developed markets such as Europe and North America featuring more prominently. Finally, Chinese ODI is a relatively new phenomenon, so its global stock, not including valuations, remains small when compared to other major economies (China 2.3%, Japan 4.5%, US 22%). This is bound to change rapidly following from a number of policy initiatives that aim to assist China to rebalance its economy and internationalize its companies.
Other authorsSee publication -
China’s trade relations with the South: What can Africa learn from the Latin American case?
BBVA
China has played a decisive role in facilitating South-South cooperation, marking a clear departure from traditional North-South dominance. Nothing reflects this shift more clearly than bilateral trade flows. Trade has grown exponentially between both regions and China but it is even more relevant for Africa. Notwithstanding its commodity abundance, Latin America has already accrued a trade deficit with China, while Africa has a questionable surplus. The message may be bad news for Latin…
China has played a decisive role in facilitating South-South cooperation, marking a clear departure from traditional North-South dominance. Nothing reflects this shift more clearly than bilateral trade flows. Trade has grown exponentially between both regions and China but it is even more relevant for Africa. Notwithstanding its commodity abundance, Latin America has already accrued a trade deficit with China, while Africa has a questionable surplus. The message may be bad news for Latin America, as relatively higher PPP levels hint towards a greater degree of substitution versus Africa. However, Africa’s surplus is relative, as excluding the surge in exports of unclassified goods from South Africa to China between 2010 and 2013; Africa would also have a trade deficit with China. Commodity exports accounted for the majority of exports to China in both cases; however some countries are more exposed than others. On a per GDP basis, Chile and Venezuela emerge as Latin America’s top exporters to China (Brazil falls in third position given its larger GDP), while Angola and Zambia head the list for Africa. Mineral products and base metals exports feature prominently for both regions. Our findings reveal increasing dependence on China for virtually all countries and all types of commodities reviewed (mineral, base metal and agriculture products) from 2005 to 2013. When accounting for the value added in trade using trade in value added (TiVA) figures, China’s rapidly increasing trade with the South slows down. Value retention lies ahead as a big challenge for trade relations between these regions and China.
Languages
-
English
Native or bilingual proficiency
-
Spanish
Native or bilingual proficiency
-
Chinese
Full professional proficiency
Recommendations received
1 person has recommended Carlos
Join now to viewMore activity by Carlos
-
Michael Ostro, Head of Private Markets, Asia, UBP - Union Bancaire Privée, on "The new role of private markets in the wealth management industry" at…
Michael Ostro, Head of Private Markets, Asia, UBP - Union Bancaire Privée, on "The new role of private markets in the wealth management industry" at…
Liked by Carlos Casanova
-
Chinese enterprises "Going Abroad" and Hong Kong 🧐 Not everyone knows that China is 'quietly' rising to become a major powerhouse of global outward…
Chinese enterprises "Going Abroad" and Hong Kong 🧐 Not everyone knows that China is 'quietly' rising to become a major powerhouse of global outward…
Liked by Carlos Casanova
-
Take some time to read this great story and understand why BYD is actually ahead of global peers when it comes to making affordable EVs. Amazing…
Take some time to read this great story and understand why BYD is actually ahead of global peers when it comes to making affordable EVs. Amazing…
Liked by Carlos Casanova
-
It's a sunny and hot day outside the Hong Kong Government Complex and Tamar Park. I shared my view on Bloomberg News with Stephen Engle on my preview…
It's a sunny and hot day outside the Hong Kong Government Complex and Tamar Park. I shared my view on Bloomberg News with Stephen Engle on my preview…
Liked by Carlos Casanova
-
Purple Power 💜 in a show of support on Spirit Day. Standing firmly against bullying. CNBC International #pridenbcu #spiritday2024
Purple Power 💜 in a show of support on Spirit Day. Standing firmly against bullying. CNBC International #pridenbcu #spiritday2024
Liked by Carlos Casanova
-
Teresa Lee, UBP - Union Bancaire Privée; Peter Beske Nielsen, EQT Group; David Shick, Julius Baer; and Arnaud TELLIER, BNP Paribas Wealth Management…
Teresa Lee, UBP - Union Bancaire Privée; Peter Beske Nielsen, EQT Group; David Shick, Julius Baer; and Arnaud TELLIER, BNP Paribas Wealth Management…
Liked by Carlos Casanova
Other similar profiles
Explore collaborative articles
We’re unlocking community knowledge in a new way. Experts add insights directly into each article, started with the help of AI.
Explore MoreOthers named Carlos Casanova
814 others named Carlos Casanova are on LinkedIn
See others named Carlos Casanova