Carlos Casanova

Carlos Casanova

Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR
500 connections

About

Carlos Casanova is Senior Economist, Asia at UBP. Based in Hong Kong, he leads UBP’s macroeconomic research in Asia and serves as a key link between the Asian investment teams and global economic research. He is a key contributor to the global macroeconomic framework and supports the formulation of our Asia investment strategy.

He was most recently Economist, Asia Pacific at Coface, where he was responsible for managing the company’s research on Asian economies. He has also served as Economist for the Spanish multinational banking group Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA) in Hong Kong and the European Commission in Beijing.

Carlos holds an MA in International Economics from Johns Hopkins University, School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), and a BA Joint Honours from the University of London, School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS). He is fluent in Mandarin Chinese, English and Spanish.

Specialties: economics, emerging markets, Asia, China, FICC, international trade and and investments, wealth management, asset allocation.

Articles by Carlos

  • China: Not on Track

    China: Not on Track

    Weak start to Q3-24 may fuel calls for additional policy support. Date: August 15, 2024.

    5 Comments
  • Bank of Japan: A Hawkish Pivot

    Bank of Japan: A Hawkish Pivot

    Date: July 31, 2024 Key takeaways: 1) The Bank of Japan (BOJ) raised its key interest rate by 15 basis points to 0.25%,…

    6 Comments
  • India Budget Dispels Election Fears

    India Budget Dispels Election Fears

    Date: July 24, 2024 On July 23, 2024, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman presented the first budget of the current…

    1 Comment
See all articles

Activity

Join now to see all activity

Experience

Education

  •  Graphic

    Activities and Societies: Dragon Boat Team Captain

Licenses & Certifications

Publications

  • Africa’s rising commodity export dependency on China

    BBVA Working Paper

    China has played a decisive role in facilitating South-South cooperation, marking a clear departure from traditional North-South dominance. Nothing reflects this shift more clearly than bilateral trade flows. Trade has grown exponentially between Africa and China but, notwithstanding the continent’s commodity abundance, the region may have already accrued a trade deficit with China. Moreover, exports to China are remarkably concentrated around a limited number of products, all of which are…

    China has played a decisive role in facilitating South-South cooperation, marking a clear departure from traditional North-South dominance. Nothing reflects this shift more clearly than bilateral trade flows. Trade has grown exponentially between Africa and China but, notwithstanding the continent’s commodity abundance, the region may have already accrued a trade deficit with China. Moreover, exports to China are remarkably concentrated around a limited number of products, all of which are classified as commodities. The nature of bilateral trade flows raises some alarms. China’s growth momentum has begun to dwindle and, more importantly, the growth model is being geared from investment towards consumption. For this reason, it is unlikely that the pace of growth in bilateral trade can continue, at least as concerns Chinese commodity imports from Africa. The extent to which a slowdown in bilateral trade will impact African exports depends on how vulnerable these commodities are to shifts in Chinese demand. To measure this, we have deployed an export dependency index for the major countries in Africa. Our index reveals that commodity dependence has increased overboard in Africa between 2005 and 2015. Looking at commodity dependence on China in absolute terms, it is apparent that the story in Africa is really about Angola, and Zambia, while on a commodity basis, dependence is largest in the case of mineral fuels. This increase in dependency has three major implications for Africa: 1) Trade dependency on China may have played a role in reducing the potential for interregional trade; 2) African countries need to develop policies that boost manufacturing and downstream processing capacity, and 3) Value retention also lies ahead as a big challenge for trade relations between Africa and China unless good policies are put in place.

    Other authors
    See publication
  • Measuring Latin America’s export dependency on China

    In this paper we deploy an export dependency index to identify the sectors and countries in Latin America which are most exposed to fluctuations in Chinese demand.

    Other authors
    See publication
  • China's growing ODI: Where does it all go?

    BBVA

    We shed light on the magnitude and distribution of Chinese outbound foreign direct investment (ODI) as well as the factors that will accelerate its growth looking forward.

    See publication
  • China’s ODI: How much goes where after round-tripping and offshoring?

    BBVA

    Chinese official statistics may be distorted by the presence of stop-over destinations such as Hong Kong and offshore centers in the Caribbean. In this paper we recalculate these flows in a way which accounts for these distortions, estimating the actual magnitude and distribution of China’s ODI and flows and stocks based on weighted averages. Our estimates show that Chinese ODI flows in 2013 may have been overstated due to the presence of round-tripping, dislodging previously held assumptions…

    Chinese official statistics may be distorted by the presence of stop-over destinations such as Hong Kong and offshore centers in the Caribbean. In this paper we recalculate these flows in a way which accounts for these distortions, estimating the actual magnitude and distribution of China’s ODI and flows and stocks based on weighted averages. Our estimates show that Chinese ODI flows in 2013 may have been overstated due to the presence of round-tripping, dislodging previously held assumptions that the country is close to becoming a net exporter of FDI. Furthermore, the distribution of China’s ODI may be more diversified than previously thought, with developed markets such as Europe and North America featuring more prominently. Finally, Chinese ODI is a relatively new phenomenon, so its global stock, not including valuations, remains small when compared to other major economies (China 2.3%, Japan 4.5%, US 22%). This is bound to change rapidly following from a number of policy initiatives that aim to assist China to rebalance its economy and internationalize its companies.

    Other authors
    See publication
  • China’s trade relations with the South: What can Africa learn from the Latin American case?

    BBVA

    China has played a decisive role in facilitating South-South cooperation, marking a clear departure from traditional North-South dominance. Nothing reflects this shift more clearly than bilateral trade flows. Trade has grown exponentially between both regions and China but it is even more relevant for Africa. Notwithstanding its commodity abundance, Latin America has already accrued a trade deficit with China, while Africa has a questionable surplus. The message may be bad news for Latin…

    China has played a decisive role in facilitating South-South cooperation, marking a clear departure from traditional North-South dominance. Nothing reflects this shift more clearly than bilateral trade flows. Trade has grown exponentially between both regions and China but it is even more relevant for Africa. Notwithstanding its commodity abundance, Latin America has already accrued a trade deficit with China, while Africa has a questionable surplus. The message may be bad news for Latin America, as relatively higher PPP levels hint towards a greater degree of substitution versus Africa. However, Africa’s surplus is relative, as excluding the surge in exports of unclassified goods from South Africa to China between 2010 and 2013; Africa would also have a trade deficit with China. Commodity exports accounted for the majority of exports to China in both cases; however some countries are more exposed than others. On a per GDP basis, Chile and Venezuela emerge as Latin America’s top exporters to China (Brazil falls in third position given its larger GDP), while Angola and Zambia head the list for Africa. Mineral products and base metals exports feature prominently for both regions. Our findings reveal increasing dependence on China for virtually all countries and all types of commodities reviewed (mineral, base metal and agriculture products) from 2005 to 2013. When accounting for the value added in trade using trade in value added (TiVA) figures, China’s rapidly increasing trade with the South slows down. Value retention lies ahead as a big challenge for trade relations between these regions and China.

    See publication

Languages

  • English

    Native or bilingual proficiency

  • Spanish

    Native or bilingual proficiency

  • Chinese

    Full professional proficiency

Recommendations received

More activity by Carlos

View Carlos’ full profile

  • See who you know in common
  • Get introduced
  • Contact Carlos directly
Join to view full profile

Other similar profiles

Explore collaborative articles

We’re unlocking community knowledge in a new way. Experts add insights directly into each article, started with the help of AI.

Explore More

Others named Carlos Casanova

Add new skills with these courses