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Modeling and Simulation for the 2018 FIFA World Cup

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world_cup

Modeling and Simulation for the 2018 FIFA World Cup.

  • world_cup.R: File builidng Poission regression model to predict and simulate the 2018 FIFA World Cup
  • international_soccer_game_data.csv: Data for intertional soccer matches dating back to 1872.
  • fixtures.csv: Fixtures and results for matches played in the 2018 FIFA World Cup
  • rankings.csv: International soccer rankings producted from model coefficients.
  • wc_sims.csv: Up to date probabilities for each country to advance to each round of the World Cup.
  • knockoutdisparty.R: Script for scraping historical data from Wikipedia to examine Knockout Round talent disparity between 2 halves of bracket for every tournament since 1998.

Methodology can be found here.

Graphical Examples

Pre-World Cup Round by Round Elimination Probabilities

Pre-World Cup Round by Round Elimination Probabilities

Pre-World Cup Expected Points

Pre-World Cup Expected Points in Group Stage

goaldist

Example of goal distribution plot, Portugal vs. Morocco (06/20/2018)

goal_plot(team1 = "Portugal", team2 = "Morocco", location = "N", col1 = "aquamarine1", col2 = "red4")

goaldistheat

Example of goal distribution plot, Colombia vs. Japan (06/19/2018)

goal_plot(team1 = "Colombia", team2 = "Japan", location = "N")

fcscrapR

  • wc_data_collect.R: A script used to collect all World Cup data from Ron Yurko's R package, fcscrapR.

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