@Article{Baier2007,

author = {Baier, Peter and Pennerstorfer, Josef and Schopf, Axel},

journal = {Forest Ecology and Management},

title = {{PHENIPS—A comprehensive phenology model of \emph{Ips typographus} (L.)(Col., Scolytinae) as a tool for hazard rating of bark beetle infestation}},

year = {2007},

number = {3},

pages = {171--186},

volume = {249},

doi = {10.1016/j.foreco.2007.05.020},

file = {:H\:/FVA-Projekte/P01851_IpsRisk/Dokumentation/Literatur/Baier_Phenips-model_FEM_(2007).pdf:PDF},

publisher = {Elsevier},

}

@Article{Jakoby2019,

author = {Jakoby, Oliver and Lischke, Heike and Wermelinger, Beat},

journal = {Global Change Biology},

title = {{Climate change alters elevational phenology patterns of the European spruce bark beetle (\emph{Ips typographus})}},

year = {2019},

number = {12},

pages = {4048-4063},

volume = {25},

abstract = {Abstract The European spruce bark beetle Ips typographus is the most important insect pest in Central European forests. Under climate change, its phenology is presumed to be changing and mass infestations becoming more likely. While several studies have investigated climate effects across a latitudinal gradient, it remains an open question how phenology will change depending on elevation and topology. Knowing how an altered climate is likely to affect bark beetle populations, particularly across diverse topographies and elevations, is essential for adaptive management. We developed a time-varying distributed delay model to predict the phenology of I. typographus. This approach has the particular advantage of capturing the variability within populations and thus representing its stage structure at any time. The model is applied for three regional climate change scenarios, A1B, A2 and RCP3PD, to the diverse topography of Switzerland, covering a large range of elevations, aspects and slopes. We found a strong negative relationship between voltinism and elevation. Under climate change, the model predicts an increasing number of generations over the whole elevational gradient, which will be more pronounced at low elevations. In contrast, the pre-shift in spring swarming is expected to be greater at higher elevations. In comparison, the general trend of faster beetle development on steep southern slopes is only of minor importance. Overall, the maximum elevation allowing a complete yearly generation will move upwards. Generally, the predicted increase in number of generations, earlier spring swarming, more aggregated swarming, together with a projected increase in drought and storm events, will result in a higher risk of mass infestations. This will increase the pressure on spruce stands particularly in the lowlands and require intensified management efforts. It calls for adapted long-term silvicultural strategies to mitigate the loss of ecosystem services such as timber production protection against rockfall and avalanches and carbon storage.},

doi = {10.1111/gcb.14766},

keywords = {forest pest, infestation risk, Norway spruce (Picea abies), phenology, temperature, time-varying distributed delay model, voltinism},

}

@Article{Ogris2020,

author = {Nikica Ogris and Mitja Ferlan and Tine Hauptman and Roman Pavlin and Andreja Kavčič and Maja Jurc and Maarten {de Groot}},

journal = {Ecological Modelling},

title = {{Sensitivity analysis, calibration and validation of a phenology model for \emph{Pityogenes chalcographus} (CHAPY)}},

year = {2020},

issn = {0304-3800},

pages = {109137},

volume = {430},

abstract = {The purpose of the study was to develop, calibrate and validate a comprehensive phenological model for the spatiotemporal simulation of the seasonal development of the six-toothed spruce bark beetle, Pityogenes chalcographus (CHAPY). The validation dataset was acquired through monitoring of the bark beetle's phenology at eight sites in Slovenia in 2017 and 2018, along with air and bark temperature measurements. The predictions were made using air temperature from the INCA system (Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis), which is used to calculate the effective bark temperature for beetle development. Since the biology of P. chalcographus is poorly studied, a sensitivity analysis was used to pinpoint the most important model parameters. The first order (main) effect was the highest for the lower developmental threshold (DTL), while the second order (interaction, total) effect was the highest for the optimum temperature (TO). DTL was calibrated with an iterative procedure, and the best result with the lowest mean absolute error (MAE) was achieved at 7.4°C. Effective temperatures in the range between TO and the upper developmental threshold were calculated with a nonlinear function whose parameters were appropriately calibrated. The spring date threshold when the model calculation starts was calibrated with an iterative procedure and set at 9th March, which had the minimum MAE. The onset of Norway spruce infestation in spring was estimated using a lower threshold of 15.6°C for flight activity and a mean thermal sum of 216.5 degree-days (dd) from 9th March onward. The observed mean thermal sum required for total development of filial beetles was 652.8 ± 22.7°C, while the predicted mean thermal sum was 635.4 ± 31.4°C. Re-emergence of parental beetles occurred when 52.7% of the minimum thermal sum for total development was reached. The relative duration of the egg, larval and combination of the pupal and teneral adult developmental stages was 9.4%, 58.2% and 32.4%, respectively. Mass swarming concluded in the end of August when daylength was lower than 13.6 h, which was determined with the independent dataset of 1,017 pheromone traps. The diapause initiation at a daylength < 13.6 h is included in the model as an assumption. Successful hibernation of established broods is predicted by assessing the developmental stage of initiated generations at the 31st December. For validation, we compared the timing of phenological events in the field with predicted events using both 30-minute recorded data at study sites in the field and hourly data from the INCA. The time of spring swarming was estimated with a MAE of 5.6 days. The onset of infestation was predicted with a MAE of 6.0 days. The predicted onset of emergence of filial beetles was estimated with a MAE of 2.1 days. Additionally, CHAPY simulates the number of generations. CHAPY was successfully incorporated into two publicly available web applications. Development of the model revealed several knowledge gaps in P. chalcographus phenology, thus providing opportunities for further research of the second most damaging bark beetle of Norway spruce in Central Europe and for further improvement of the CHAPY model. Potential applications of the model for monitoring and management of P. chalcographus are discussed.},

doi = {10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2020.109137},

keywords = {Six-toothed spruce bark beetle, Insect outbreak, Population dynamics, Voltinism, Ecological modelling, Pheromone trap, Trap tree, Monitoring},

}

@Article{Ogris2020a,

author = {Nikica Ogris},

journal = {MethodsX},

title = {Calculation procedure for RITY - A phenology model of \emph{Ips typographus}},

year = {2020},

issn = {2215-0161},

pages = {100845},

volume = {7},

abstract = {The RITY-2 phenology model was developed for the spatiotemporal simulation of the seasonal development of European spruce bark beetle, Ips typographus. RITY-2 is based on the PHENIPS model and was developed through improving PHENIPS with innovative approaches and calibrating and validating it for Slovenia. RITY-2 predictions are based on air temperatures from Integrated Nowcasting through a Comprehensive Analysis (INCA) system, which is used to calculate the effective bark temperature for beetle development. In this paper we describe the calculation procedure for RITY-2.•INCA enables high resolution spatial and temporal simulations and predictions.•An innovative procedure was introduced that finds the most appropriate spring date threshold from which the calculation of the phenological model is initiated.•Simplified and customized linear models for calculation of the air temperature in the forest and bark temperatures were developed.},

doi = {10.1016/j.mex.2020.100845},

keywords = {European spruce bark beetle, Phenology, Ecological modelling, Voltinism, Population dynamics},

}

@Article{Jonsson2011,

author = {Jönsson, Anna Maria and Harding, Susanne and Krokene, Paal and Lange, Holger and Åke Lindelöw, Ake and Økland, Bjørn and Ravn, Hans Peter and Schroeder, Leif Martin},

journal = {Climatic Change},

title = {{Modelling the potential impact of global warming on \emph{Ips typographus} voltinism and reproductive diapause}},

year = {2011},

pages = {695-718},

volume = {109},

doi = {10.1007/s10584-011-0038-4},

publisher = {Springer},

}

@Article{Wermelinger1998,

author = {Wermelinger, B. and Seifert, M.},

journal = {Journal of Applied Entomology},

title = {{Analysis of the temperature dependent development of the spruce bark beetle \emph{Ips typographus} (L) (Col., Scolytidae)}},

year = {1998},

number = {1-5},

pages = {185-191},

volume = {122},

abstract = {Abstract: Following individual development by means of the ‘sandwich method’ the duration of egg, larval, and pupal stages, as well as of adult maturation feeding of the spruce bark beetle (Ips typographus) was measured at constant temperatures in the range between 12° and 33° C. At 20° C complete development from egg to adult emerging from pupa averaged 29 days. The proportion of the duration of larval development relative to total preimaginal development increased with temperature. Developmental rates, i.e. the speed of development increased linearly with temperature in a range between 15° and 25°C. Based on linear regressions, lower developmental thresholds were calculated to be 10.6°C (eggs), 8.2°C (larvae), 9.9°C (pupae), and 8.3°C (preimaginal development egg to pupa), respectively. Differing heat sums reported in the literature matched ours when recalculated with our developmental thresholds. A nonlinear model (Logan/Lactin) was fitted to the data which allowed to describe development in the entire temperature range. It further permits to identify lower and upper (≅ 40°C) developmental thresholds as well as optimum temperatures (30–33°C) of the instars.},

doi = {https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1439-0418.1998.tb01482.x},

}

@Article{Tran2007,

author = {Trân, J. Khai and Ylioja, Tiina and Billings, Ronald F. and Régnière, Jacques and Ayres, Matthew P.},

journal = {Ecological Applications},

title = {{Impact of minimum winter temperatures on the population dynamics of \emph{Dendroctonus frontalis}}},

year = {2007},

number = {3},

pages = {882-899},

volume = {17},

abstract = {Predicting population dynamics is a fundamental problem in applied ecology. Temperature is a potential driver of short-term population dynamics, and temperature data are widely available, but we generally lack validated models to predict dynamics based upon temperatures. A generalized approach involves estimating the temperatures experienced by a population, characterizing the demographic consequences of physiological responses to temperature, and testing for predicted effects on abundance. We employed this approach to test whether minimum winter temperatures are a meaningful driver of pestilence from Dendroctonus frontalis (the southern pine beetle) across the southeastern United States. A distance-weighted interpolation model provided good, spatially explicit, predictions of minimum winter air temperatures (a putative driver of beetle survival). A Newtonian heat transfer model with empirical cooling constants indicated that beetles within host trees are buffered from the lowest air temperatures by 1–4°C (depending on tree diameter and duration of cold bout). The life stage structure of beetles in the most northerly outbreak in recent times (New Jersey) were dominated by prepupae, which were more cold tolerant (by >3°C) than other life stages. Analyses of beetle abundance data from 1987 to 2005 showed that minimum winter air temperature only explained 1.5\% of the variance in interannual growth rates of beetle populations, indicating that it is but a weak driver of population dynamics in the southeastern United States as a whole. However, average population growth rate matched theoretical predictions of a process-based model of winter mortality from low temperatures; apparently our knowledge of population effects from winter temperatures is satisfactory, and may help to predict dynamics of northern populations, even while adding little to population predictions in southern forests. Recent episodes of D. frontalis outbreaks in northern forests may have been allowed by a warming trend from 1960 to 2004 of 3.3°C in minimum winter air temperatures in the southeastern United States. Studies that combine climatic analyses, physiological experiments, and spatially replicated time series of population abundance can improve population predictions, contribute to a synthesis of population and physiological ecology, and aid in assessing the ecological consequences of climatic trends.},

doi = {https://doi.org/10.1890/06-0512},

keywords = {adaptive seasonality, bark beetle, climate change, cold tolerance, Dendroctonus frontalis, distribution limits, lower lethal temperature, microclimate, pest management, population dynamics and monitoring, Scolytinae, southern pine beetle},

}

@Article{Lange2006,

author = {Lange, Holger and Oekland, Bjoern and Krokene, Paal},

journal = {Interjournal Complex Syst.},

title = {{Thresholds in the life cycle of the spruce bark beetle under climate change}},

year = {2006},

month = {01},

volume = {1648},

}

@Article{Schroeder2017,

author = {Schroeder, Martin and Dalin, Peter},

journal = {Agricultural and Forest Entomology},

title = {{Differences in photoperiod-induced diapause plasticity among different populations of the bark beetle \emph{Ips typographus} and its predator \emph{Thanasimus formicarius}}},

year = {2017},

number = {2},

pages = {146-153},

volume = {19},

abstract = {Abstract Photoperiod is a common cue for diapause induction in insects. In a warmer climate, the photoperiod-sensitive life stage can be expected to be reached earlier in the season, when day length is still long, thereby increasing the probability of an additional generation. Populations from four latitudes in Sweden of the tree-killing bark beetle Ips typographus (L.) and its predator Thanasimus formicarius (L.) (Coleoptera, Cleridae) were reared at day lengths from 8 to 23.5 h. Ips typographus adults were classified as being reproductive or in diapause by dissection. Thanasimus formicarius new generation adults were classified as direct developers, whereas last-instar larvae in pupal chambers were classified as in developmental diapause. The frequency of reproductive diapause among new generation I. typographus adults was negatively correlated with day length and positively correlated with latitude of population origin. The two northernmost populations included a considerable proportion of individuals that entered reproductive diapause even at the longest day lengths. By contrast, diapause entry in the predator T. formicarius was generally independent of photoperiod and geographical origin. In a warmer climate, two generations per year may be more common for I. typographus in Sweden. The predator is less likely to increase voltinism.},

doi = {https://doi.org/10.1111/afe.12189},

keywords = {Clerid beetle, climate warming, day length, phenological mismatch, spruce bark beetle, voltinism},

}

@Article{Ogris2019,

author = {Ogris, Nikica and Ferlan, Mitja and Hauptman, Tine and Pavlin, Roman and Kav{\v{c}}i{\v{c}}, Andreja and Jurc, Maja and De Groot, Maarten},

journal = {Ecological Modelling},

title = {{RITY--A phenology model of Ips typographus as a tool for optimization of its monitoring}},

year = {2019},

pages = {108775},

volume = {410},

doi = {10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2019.108775},

publisher = {Elsevier},

}

@Article{Annila1969,

author = {Erkki Annila},

journal = {Annales Zoologici Fennici},

title = {Influence of temperature upon the development and voltinism of Ips typographus L. (Coleoptera, Scolytidae)},

year = {1969},

number = {2},

pages = {161--208},

volume = {6},

abstract = {The influence of temperature upon the overwintering, swarming and other phases of activity as well as reproduction and development of the spruce bark beetle (Ips typographus L.) was studied in 1964 — 1967 in south Finland, where the species is univoltine. Detailed microclimatic measurements were made and thermal sums required for different phases of the life history were calculated on the basis of the data obtained. Lethal temperature limits of the larvae, pupae and adults are presented, and the effect of extreme winter and summer temperatures upon the survival of the spruce bark beetle are discussed.},

publisher = {Finnish Zoological and Botanical Publishing Board},

url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/23731366},

urldate = {2024-06-10},

}

@InProceedings{Lange2008,

author = {Lange, Holger and Økland, Bjørn and Krokene, Paal},

booktitle = {Unifying Themes in Complex Systems: Proceedings of the Sixth International Conference on Complex Systems},

title = {To be or twice to be? The life cycle development of the spruce bark beetle under climate change},

year = {2008},

organization = {Springer},

pages = {251--258},

doi = {10.1007/978-3-540-85081-6_32},

}

@Comment{jabref-meta: databaseType:bibtex;}