Publicación de Grupo Hotusa

In just a few days, 373 million Europeans are called to the polls to renew their representatives in the European Parliament in the largest exercise of transnational democracy in the world. The European Parliament is the only EU institution that is elected by direct suffrage and its renewal will mark the start of a new political cycle at the EU level. From the Chinese systemic competition, to the US economic decoupling and the Russian security threat, a cocktail of existential challenges awaits. We call them, for short, European elections, although technically they are the sum of 27 elections held at the national level and which generally take place according to internal political dynamics. Never, however, have the European elections been more deserving of this adjective than on this occasion. Watch my video at La Vanguardia #useyourvote #usatuvoto #9J # Europeanelections #eleccioneseuropeas #europe #europa

Today EL ESPAÑOL publishes my analysis on the results of the European elections. Here are three key takeaways: 1) Low Turnout (≈50%): This indicates that Spaniards (and Europeans in general) have yet to fully grasp the crucial role the EU will play in the coming years. 2) Rise of Nationalist and Populist Right: Factors like immigration and the impact of the Green Pact have fueled significant gains for these groups, leading to a notable decline in support for Centrist and Green parties. 3) Endurance of the Centrist Coalition: The alliance between socialists, liberals, and conservatives remains the main political force, maintaining enough support to potentially secure a second term for Von der Leyen. For a deeper dive, read the full article here: https://lnkd.in/dSwWtvTJ #EUElections #FTIConsulting #PublicAffairs.

Spain has been one of the few countries that has dodged the wave of the far-right that is growing strongly in much of the European Union in these elections. #democracy # justice # diversity # equality The PP won the elections (34.2% of the vote) but narrowly, by two seats (22-20) and four points, and the PSOE showed great resistance at a time of extreme weakness for European social democracy as a whole, making Pedro Sánchez the leader of a kind of progressive Spanish Gala village - along with Portugal, where the Socialists are winning - in the midst of a conservative whirlwind that could bring down several European governments. The PSOE is holding on to 30% of the vote, a record in a European Union where the once all-powerful SPD, which governs in Germany, has not reached 14%. The ultra-right in Spain, adding Vox and Alvise Pérez, stands at 14.21%, a figure even lower than the 15% that Vox obtained in the general elections of November 2019 and well below that of its European allies, who in France have reached 33%.

Outlets in Chile calling the result of Sunday’s referendum 90 minutes after polls closed on Sunday evening . For a second time it looks like Chileans will reject a new proposal for a new constitution. 🤷🏻♀️ According to the consolidated data of Radio Bío Bío and BioBioChile, the final result of the Plebiscite will be 55.4% for the En Contra and 44.6% for the A Favour. It is expected that in the next few minutes the Electoral Service will deliver a new calculation that reaffirms this projection. Currently, the agency reported that with 27.81% of the counting tables, the En Contra option is imposed with 54.61%, while the A Favour reaches 45.39%.

Yolanda Díaz has surprised and announced that she is leaving all the positions she held in Sumar, but she does continue as vice president of the Government. This news causes a crisis in the party after the results obtained in the European elections: “I have decided to leave my position as coordinator,” she said in a streaming appearance and without questions. “There needs to be a debate and with this decision I open the way,” this is her reflection after her party obtained only three seats, one more than Podemos. With this decision without turning back, Yolanda believes that it is time to leave new leadership in the party to others. The result of the elections leaves Sumar in the pillory. Almost the technical tie with Podemos has made him consider this decision that he wanted to make public today. #YolandaDíez #Dimisión #Bilbao #Política #Vivienda #AyuntamientoDeBilbao #NoticiasBilbao #GestiónPública #ViviendaVacía #ZonasTensionadas #ActualidadPolítica #NoticiasLocales #GobiernoMunicipal #PolíticasDeVivienda #BilbaoNoticias #SpanishPolitics #Spain #GovernmentOfSpain #SpanishParliament #SpanishSenate #SpainElections #PoliticalParties #PSOE #PP #Podemos #Ciudadanos #Vox #NationalPolitics #SpainNews #PoliticalNews #PoliticalDebate #PoliticalReform #GeneralElections #Politicians #Governance #Democracy #SpanishInstitutions #Spain2024 #EconomicPolicy #PoliticalTransparency #CivilRights #SpanishSociety #CivicParticipation #Legislation #SocialJustice

Nothing new in Central and Eastern Europe ?   French media paid little attention to the outcome of Slovakian parliamentary elections this weekend, despite more global consequences to be expected, Slovakia being both EU and NATO member.   Scoring first with abt. 23 %, former Prime Minister Robert FICO and its party SMER may success in building a parliamentary majority. Such change of regime should shift Slovakian attitude vis a vis:   1. Russo-Ukrainian war and should result in stopping support to Ukraine. Even if practical consequences would be very limited, political impact should be important with a further crack in the “united” front against Russia.   2. European Union, Slovakia has some common views and interests with Hungary and Poland, that should become less isolated inside the Union.   In a context where Central and Eastern Europe populations suffer from a deteriorated economic situation, it is to be expected that 2024 June European elections should lead to a further blossoming of euroscepticism in the area. https://lnkd.in/eKfxcae5

Today I am sharing my view about the upcoming #euelections in the Spanish newspaper Expansión. There is a lot at stake in shaping the future of the EU. The rise of anti European parties may have a substancial impact on EU policies, including immigration, industrial policy and the EU Green Deal. #publicaffairs #EU European Commission European Parliament Council of the European Union FTI Consulting

Once again PM Pedro Sanchez from center-left PSOE (122 seats) rise from the ashes. All polls consistently predicted a majority (175 seats) for center-right political party Partido Popular (PP) and a likely coalition formed by PP (136 seats) and far-right Vox (33 seats). PM Sanchez proved opinion pollers and journalists wrong and the end of his political career will have to wait. What’s next? A new coalition goverment formed by PM Sanchez and far-left Sumar (31 seats) or new elections. The goverment will need that four nationalist/pro-independe parties (19 seats) vote again for the new coalition in parliament and the abstention in parliament of Junts (seven seats). The latter is a pro-inpendence/center-right party led by Carles Puigdemont, who fled to Belgium in 2017 after being charged for his role in an unconstitutional pro-independe referedum in Catalonia. An unfamiliar reader would think that Spain is heading back to the polls but would you bet against PM Sanchez?

The Spanish liberals of Ciudadanos join the Partido Popular in the run up to the EU elections. Their electoral promiscuity is no cause of surprise: they have been flirting with both the PP and Vox over the past 5 years, in full contradiction with their EU political family (ALDE/RENEW). That’s why they lost momentum and disappeared in Spain. This move will further weaken the liberal group on the next EP, likely to lose its position as 3rd largest group and becoming the 5th after the ECR and ID, that is the new and old right The EU elections are neither elections nor are European #EP24 #EUCO My take for El Pais https://lnkd.in/dA27fwEh

My last article on #Venezuela with Antulio Rosales for Nueva Sociedad. Ahead of the July presidentials the Maduro-regime has set the table for the most unequal elections in Venezuelan history: disqualified opposition candidates, harassed and imprisoned political activists and human rights defenders, shut off competitors from registration of candidates, and promoted the so called "anti-fascist law" that basically prohibits any political thinking that the regime deems unwanted. Yet, there is a small window of opportunity, we argue. To strengthen the possibilities for a minimally competitive election, the so called "progressive governments" in Latin America - a.o. Brazil, Colombia, Chile - have a pivotal role to play.