Antes de empezar a crear escenarios, debe definir el ámbito y el propósito del análisis. ¿Cuál es la pregunta principal o el desafío que desea abordar? ¿Cuál es el horizonte temporal y el alcance geográfico de su análisis? ¿Cuáles son los objetivos y resultados clave que desea lograr? Al aclarar estos aspectos, puede enfocar su análisis en los temas más relevantes e importantes, y evitar sentirse abrumado por demasiados detalles o suposiciones.
¡Gracias por avisarnos! Ya no verás esta contribución
🎯Define the scope and purpose clearly.
🔍Identify key questions and challenges to address.
🕒Set a realistic time horizon for the analysis.
🌍Determine the geographic scope relevant to your analysis.
🎯Focus on key objectives and desired outcomes.
📊Gather relevant data and information for scenario building.
🧠Consider multiple perspectives and factors influencing the scenarios.
🔄Develop diverse scenarios, including best-case, worst-case, and most likely outcomes.
📉Analyze the potential impact of each scenario on your objectives.
📝Document assumptions and rationale behind each scenario.
🔄Review and update scenarios regularly based on new information.
¡Gracias por avisarnos! Ya no verás esta contribución
- Plasmar la situación en un rango 360 para poder analizarla. Para ello se necesita una investigación profunda de los departamentos involucrados, escuchar, entender y plasmar.
- Al analizar el tema tomando en consideración los comentarios de diversos departamentos, se podrá comenzar a visualizar los diferentes escenarios.
- Una vez que se tengan, se necesita corroborar con las personas y departamentos clave para asegurar que se encuentra completo.
¡Gracias por avisarnos! Ya no verás esta contribución
Key steps for a succcessful scenario planning project include:
- Spend time to get to the most useful framing question for the scenarsio and define the scope.
- Throughout the process ensure that executive thinking is stretched beyond usual frames while maintaining plausibility.
- Make sure that scenarios are not just factual descriptions of future states but include compelling narratives and timelines.
- Involve a broad range of stakeholders throughout the process.
- Bring in external perspectives to broaden thinking.
- Focus on effective, engaging communication of the scenarios rather than simply creating a document.
- From the outset clearly design specifically how the scenarios will inform strategic thinking and decision-making.
¡Gracias por avisarnos! Ya no verás esta contribución
Potential scenarios are limitless.
Therefore, limit the scope of your simulations.
Not because examining several scenarios isn't important. It is.
But you have to be practical.
Ensure you're focused on scenarios with the highest likelihood of occurrence.
¡Gracias por avisarnos! Ya no verás esta contribución
I've consistently found that establishing clarity at the outset of a scenario analysis is fundamental to its success. Explicitly articulating the objectives to all stakeholders involved is critical to preventing misalignment and directing collective efforts towards common goals.
To facilitate this clarity and maintain a consistent understanding among all participants, I advocate for the use of a structured briefing document. This document should comprehensively outline the scope, purpose, and desired outcomes of the scenario analysis. It serves as a vital tool that guides the entire process, ensuring that every participant, from team members to top management, shares the same focused and unified direction for the analysis.
¡Gracias por avisarnos! Ya no verás esta contribución
In my experience, defining scope and purpose is crucial. When conducting scenario analysis, it's also beneficial to involve diverse stakeholders and adopt a multidisciplinary approach. Encourage creative and critical thinking, explore various possibilities, and consider both external trends and internal organizational factors. Use visual tools, narratives, or simulations to enhance scenario understanding. Regularly revisit and update scenarios based on new information for dynamic, inclusive, and actionable insights in strategic planning and decision-making.
¡Gracias por avisarnos! Ya no verás esta contribución
communicate and monitor the scenarios. You need to share your scenario analysis with your organization and stakeholders, and explain the rationale, assumptions, and findings of your analysis. You also need to monitor the external environment and internal performance, and update your scenarios as new information or changes occur
¡Gracias por avisarnos! Ya no verás esta contribución
Identifying the task at hand and communicating this effectively to ensure that everyone understands the task is a vital step in solving the problem. This ensures that we all know the problem to find an adequate solution and the type of solution process that is needed
¡Gracias por avisarnos! Ya no verás esta contribución
Scenario Analysis is the best way of getting a wide range possible outcomes while considering all the variables and their effect on the outcomes. The major and most use cased domain today is investment and finance.
- You should be selective while choosing the variables to model.
- Break Even analysis should be collated in the process.
- Base case - Worst case - Best case : This should be ideal followed manner to get fruitful analysis.
¡Gracias por avisarnos! Ya no verás esta contribución
Best practices for conducting scenario analysis include:
Define Objectives: Clearly outline the purpose and scope.
Identify Key Drivers: Focus on critical factors that influence outcomes.
Develop Scenarios: Create plausible, diverse scenarios covering a range of possibilities.
Engage Stakeholders: Involve experts and stakeholders for diverse perspectives.
Quantify Impacts: Assess the financial, operational, and strategic implications.
Review and Refine: Continuously revisit and update scenarios as new data emerges.
Integrate with Decision-Making: Use insights to inform strategic planning and risk management.
2Identificar los factores clave y las incertidumbres
El siguiente paso es identificar los factores clave y las incertidumbres que darán forma a los escenarios futuros. Los impulsores son los factores que influyen o determinan la dirección y la magnitud del cambio, como las tendencias tecnológicas, económicas, sociales, ambientales o políticas. Las incertidumbres son los factores que son impredecibles o desconocidos, como las preferencias de los clientes, las acciones de la competencia, los cambios regulatorios o los desastres naturales. Puede utilizar varias fuentes de información, como datos, investigaciones, opiniones de expertos o lluvia de ideas, para identificar los impulsores y las incertidumbres que son más relevantes e impactantes para su análisis.
¡Gracias por avisarnos! Ya no verás esta contribución
Scenario analysis would be of high probability to be more accurate if the variables to be considered are much so long they are relevant.
The number of key drivers and uncertainties in a scenario analysis helps to plan ahead of multiple possible future event that are already prepared for through analysis of data available.
¡Gracias por avisarnos! Ya no verás esta contribución
People are super lazy when it comes to identifying drivers of change in the future.
1. They assume that the drivers of the past will be the same in the future. Such assumptions should be challenged.
2. They choose broad drivers, like "economic growth," that do little to shed light on the future. Such broad topics should be broken down so the most relevant drivers are identified.
3. They choose superficial drivers. For example, if growth in the telecoms industry is important, what are the drivers of that uncertainty?
Only by choosing appropriate levels of specificity can we learn anything useful about the future.
¡Gracias por avisarnos! Ya no verás esta contribución
Begin with a thorough environmental scan to identify trends, uncertainties, and potential disruptors that could impact your industry. This includes examining political, economic, social, technological, legal, and environmental factors. Engage a diverse group of stakeholders to gain a broad perspective on potential drivers and uncertainties. This group should include individuals from various levels and functions within the organisation, as well as external experts where relevant.
¡Gracias por avisarnos! Ya no verás esta contribución
In my experience running Futures-focused events for USSOCOM, we effectively combined Futures Thinking and Design Thinking to tap into the collective wisdom of diverse, multinational teams.
Cross-functional discussions uncovered a wide range of potential influences, from geopolitical shifts to emerging technologies. To identify critical uncertainties, we challenged teams to imagine extreme scenarios and "black swan" events, pushing them to confront assumptions.
Diverse perspectives from different nations, industries, and disciplines helped identify a richer set of drivers and uncertainties. By integrating these approaches, we unlocked our teams' collective intelligence to better understand the key factors shaping the future.
¡Gracias por avisarnos! Ya no verás esta contribución
Versuchen sie die Unsicherheiten zu quantifizieren um diese neutraler berücksichtigen zu können. Bewerten Sie das Risiko. Akzeptieren Sie Risiken die sie nicht beeinflussen können und fokussieren sie sich auf Risiken wo sie etwas tun können.
¡Gracias por avisarnos! Ya no verás esta contribución
In my experience, effective scenario analyses involve diverse perspectives and challenge conventional wisdom. Engage a wide range of stakeholders to uncover blind spots and introduce novel insights. Encourage contributions from different functions, levels, or external partners. Consider extreme or unlikely scenarios alongside predictable ones to prepare for broader possibilities and stimulate innovative solutions. Regularly revisit and update scenarios as new information emerges to ensure relevance and robustness. Scenario planning is about thoughtful and comprehensive preparation for the future, not predicting it.
¡Gracias por avisarnos! Ya no verás esta contribución
From my perspective, integrating AI into this process offers a transformative opportunity to enhance the depth and breadth of our analysis conducting scenario analysis. Leveraging AI is a great opportunity to identify critical drivers and uncertainties effectively. AI's capability to analyze vast datasets enables a deeper understanding of influential factors like technological and socio-economic trends. Furthermore, AI can uncover potential uncertainties by identifying patterns in customer behavior and competitor strategies. This approach not only enriches our analysis with nuanced insights but also equips us to anticipate future challenges and opportunities more accurately, enhancing strategic planning and decision-making.
¡Gracias por avisarnos! Ya no verás esta contribución
There are two ways to identify key drivers of change: the lazy way and the diligent way.
The lazy way is to come up with something generic, like economic growth. Yes, it checks the boxes of being a driver of change and source of uncertainty, but it lacks utility.
The diligent way is to dig deeper, by:
1. splitting the driver into its constituent parts. For example, which specific industry sectors are growing?
2. identifying the drivers behind the drivers. For example, is it consumption, investment or government spending that is driving economic growth?
Greater levels of granularity generate superior analysis.
¡Gracias por avisarnos! Ya no verás esta contribución
The richness of scenarios are significantly impacted by the rigour with which we identify the drivers & uncertainties. This is why conducting a comprehensive review of both internal & external factors is critical.
To achieve this, we run workshops with cross-functional teams & leverage external expertise for a wider perspective on potential drivers & uncertainties.
This can involve industry experts, market research, PESTEL & SWOT analysis. This thorough process ensures that a wide array of influences are considered.
These external viewpoints provide a valuable counterbalance to internal perspectives, helping to identify potential drivers & uncertainties that may not be immediately apparent from within the organisation.
3Desarrollar una matriz de escenarios y narrativas
Una vez que haya identificado los impulsores e incertidumbres clave, puede usarlos para desarrollar una matriz de escenarios y narrativas. Una matriz de escenarios es una herramienta simple que le ayuda a crear diferentes combinaciones de impulsores e incertidumbres, en función de su probabilidad e impacto. Por ejemplo, puede utilizar una matriz de 2x2 con dos controladores en cada eje y cuatro cuadrantes que representen cuatro escenarios posibles. Como alternativa, puede utilizar una matriz de 3x3 con tres controladores en cada eje y nueve escenarios. Una narrativa de escenario es una historia que describe cómo se desarrollaría cada escenario, cuáles son los principales eventos y características, y cómo afectarían a su organización y partes interesadas. Puede utilizar varias técnicas, como la narración de historias, la visualización o la simulación, para crear narrativas de escenarios atractivas y realistas.
¡Gracias por avisarnos! Ya no verás esta contribución
Developing a scenario matrix involves mapping key drivers and uncertainties on a grid to form various future scenarios. Then, through storytelling and visualization, these scenarios are brought to life, aiding strategic planning and preparedness.
¡Gracias por avisarnos! Ya no verás esta contribución
Crafting effective scenario matrices and narratives is crucial for comprehensive scenario analysis. Key best practices include:
Rigorous identification: Precisely define key drivers and uncertainties shaping the future environment.
Matrix construction: Develop a structured matrix to systematically explore potential outcomes.
Narrative development: Construct coherent and plausible storylines for each scenario quadrant.
Critical evaluation: Ensure scenarios are internally consistent and align with underlying assumptions.
Iterative refinement: Continuously assess and update scenarios based on new information and insights.
Stakeholder engagement: Incorporate diverse perspectives to enrich scenario development.
¡Gracias por avisarnos! Ya no verás esta contribución
Use the most critical uncertainties to construct a scenario matrix. Typically, two key uncertainties are plotted on a two-axis grid, creating four quadrants. Each quadrant represents a distinct scenario based on different outcomes of these uncertainties. For each scenario, develop detailed narratives that describe a plausible future state. These narratives should include how the scenario might unfold, key events, potential challenges, and opportunities. Engage your team in this creative process to leverage diverse insights and enhance the richness of each scenario.
¡Gracias por avisarnos! Ya no verás esta contribución
Catchy words help capture attention and engage participants in the scenario planning process. People are more likely to be interested and actively participate when the language used to describe the various scenarios is compelling and resonates with them. Memorable scenarios are more likely to stick with participants, aiding in the retention and recall of key information. Using vivid and descriptive language helps create mental images that participants can easily remember. Words with emotional resonance can evoke feelings and reactions, helping participants connect on a deeper level with the scenarios. Emotional engagement can lead to more thoughtful discussions and a better understanding of the potential impacts of each scenario.
¡Gracias por avisarnos! Ya no verás esta contribución
While scenarios a-z forecasts and projections has been listed, you can consider imagining 2 minutes max/day that you have achieved the best case scenario. an element of drive and hope in uncertainties.
Alternatively, if you are thinking the worst case. Equally use 2 minutes max/day and list all of your fears in detail. You will often find yourself in a better actual than what you overthought in that list.
¡Gracias por avisarnos! Ya no verás esta contribución
A scenario matrix is an easy and accessible way to start practicing scenario analysis, but it's far from best practice. Its simplicity and ease of use (its strength) is exactly what holds it back because it limits the user's ability to develop complex, detailed, and immersive scenarios. A maturing program would gain much more benefit from archetypal, morphological, and/or worldbuilding techniques. Under certain circumstances, sophisticated programs can benefit from esoteric techniques. As far as 3*3 matrices go, the article is incorrect. If an x*y 2D matrix is used, then any scenario created will, of necessity, only be using 2 of the uncertainties, else it's morphological. To correct this, an x*y*z 3D dimensional model should be used.
¡Gracias por avisarnos! Ya no verás esta contribución
When developing your matrix it's more important to think about 'predictability' than 'likelihood' If the likelihood of something is very high or almost certain then there no need to develop alternate scenarios as you already know what will happen. Ideally you base your matrix on independent 'critical uncertainties'. Critical uncertainties are high impact, difficult to predict events. Because they are difficult to predict they have the potential to create wildly different possible futures that your organisation might need to plan for.
¡Gracias por avisarnos! Ya no verás esta contribución
Identify key drivers and uncertainties to create a scenario matrix. Use a simple 2x2 or 3x3 format to visualize potential outcomes. For each scenario, write a concise narrative detailing key events and impacts on your organization. This approach helps clarify possible futures and informs strategic decisions.
Una vez que haya desarrollado su matriz de escenarios y narrativas, debe analizar las implicaciones y opciones para cada escenario. ¿Cómo afectaría cada escenario a las fortalezas, debilidades, oportunidades y amenazas de su organización? ¿Cuáles son los riesgos y beneficios potenciales de cada escenario? ¿Cuáles son las opciones estratégicas y las acciones que puede tomar para responder a cada escenario? ¿Cómo puede aprovechar sus recursos y capacidades para adaptarse a cada escenario? Puede utilizar varias herramientas, como el análisis FODA, la evaluación de riesgos o la matriz de decisión, para evaluar las implicaciones y opciones para cada escenario.
¡Gracias por avisarnos! Ya no verás esta contribución
Remember we did not build our scenarios to predict an exact future. We thought through the driving forces within our environment, envisioned the impact of emerging futures on stakeholders, and considered how we would respond. “How we would respond” is key. We built the scenarios to consider our actions should analogous events occur. Our intent was to have a considered direction that we could adapt as required during times that potentially could be extremely stressful. Move beyond broad plans and think through the teams and organizational functions who will engage as the future becomes clearer. If a potential future may force a shift in an organization’s function, make sure they are aware of that possibility and have prepared accordingly.
¡Gracias por avisarnos! Ya no verás esta contribución
In my approach to scenario analysis, I use it as a dynamic tool for strategic foresight. By envisioning diverse future scenarios, I assess how each might impact our organization's trajectory.
This process involves a deep dive into understanding potential shifts in market dynamics, customer behavior, and technological advancements. I then map out strategic responses that are agile and robust, ensuring our organization is not just reacting to changes but is proactively prepared.
Using this method, we can navigate through uncertainties, enabling our organization to seize opportunities and mitigate risks effectively.
¡Gracias por avisarnos! Ya no verás esta contribución
Determine early warning signs for each scenario, which could indicate which direction the future is heading. This enables your organisation to respond proactively rather than reactively. Encourage the adoption of flexible strategies that can be adapted as the future unfolds. This may involve investing in capabilities that are valuable across multiple scenarios or creating 'optionality' in strategic decisions.
¡Gracias por avisarnos! Ya no verás esta contribución
Scenario implications reveal hidden risks & opportunities, which can be translated into actionable strategies. A key component of this process is the identification of early indicators. These indicators serve as triggers for initiating specific scenario-driven actions, which are critical in ensuring timely responses required to capitalise on opportunities or mitigate risks as scenarios begin to unfold.
Tools like SWOT & risk assessments provide structured frameworks for dissecting each scenario, enabling us to analyse & prioritise strategic responses.
Additionally, the use of risk assessments further aids in identifying the probability & impact of potential events, allowing us to prioritise actions based on their potential impact.
¡Gracias por avisarnos! Ya no verás esta contribución
I find this is done best in a collective workshop where you can get diverse stakeholders to interrogate the scenarios and identify strategic opportunities, challenges and responses. Done well this is a deeply enagaging approach that ensures the scenarios don't just exist on paper but instead, they enter the heads and infiltrate the future conversations of participants.
¡Gracias por avisarnos! Ya no verás esta contribución
This include thoroughly analyzing the implications of each scenario and evaluating various options. Assess how different scenarios impact goals and operations, and consider potential responses or strategies for each outcome. This approach helps in understanding risks, identifying opportunities, and preparing actionable plans to navigate different future conditions effectively.
El paso final es comunicar y monitorear los escenarios. Debe compartir su análisis de escenarios con su organización y partes interesadas, y explicar la justificación, las suposiciones y los hallazgos de su análisis. También debe supervisar el entorno externo y el rendimiento interno, y actualizar los escenarios a medida que se produzca nueva información o cambios. Puede usar varios métodos, como informes, presentaciones, talleres o paneles, para comunicarse y supervisar los escenarios.
El análisis de escenarios es una poderosa herramienta de pensamiento estratégico que puede ayudarlo a anticipar y prepararse para diferentes futuros posibles. Al seguir estos procedimientos recomendados, puede realizar un análisis de escenarios que sea relevante, realista y procesable para su organización.
¡Gracias por avisarnos! Ya no verás esta contribución
Criticisms of scenario planning focus on the unfolding future not exactly matching the scripts of the different scenarios. As you communicate the various scenarios’ scripts, reinforce that the scenarios were never intended to be forecasts. Each option is a different lens the firm can view alternative futures through. When I first studied scenario planning techniques the literature discussed lengthy processes that featured considerable time lags between iterations. We must make the scenario planning and environmental monitoring process a continuous discipline. Generative AI tools can help you update your scenarios frequently, and the actual corporate responses considered and implemented quickly.
¡Gracias por avisarnos! Ya no verás esta contribución
Scenario planning is most effective when the narratives are plausible, meaning they are realistic and relevant. These narratives aren't like forecasts with exact numbers on Excel sheets; instead, they are stories that help us understand potential future developments. They address the big question, “What the heck is going on?” By painting detailed pictures of possible futures, scenario planning offers different pathways that organizations can consider. These pathways guide how to respond to various situations, making it easier to identify potential risks and opportunities. Ultimately, these narratives help organizations become more flexible and prepared, making smarter decisions in an uncertain world.
#strategy
#scenario
#planning
#forecast
¡Gracias por avisarnos! Ya no verás esta contribución
The biggest problems with traditional scenario generation are that the process takes too long, focuses on too narrow a range of drivers, and is conducted too infrequently.
Frequent scenario generation that combines different drivers of change stimulates a more consistent consideration of the future and deeper understanding of the possibilities.
¡Gracias por avisarnos! Ya no verás esta contribución
Effective communication and monitoring are crucial for scenario analysis success. Key practices include:
Clear and Concise Communication: Present scenarios in a clear, understandable manner, tailored to the audience's knowledge level.
Transparent Methodology: Explain the underlying assumptions, data sources, and analytical methods used to build credibility.
Interactive Engagement: Encourage feedback and questions to refine understanding and identify potential blind spots.
Regular Monitoring: Track key indicators and compare actual results to scenario projections to identify early warning signs.
Dynamic Updates: Continuously assess the relevance of scenarios and update them as needed to reflect changing conditions.
¡Gracias por avisarnos! Ya no verás esta contribución
Using appropriate language when communicating facilitates discussions. It makes scenarios more interesting and accessible. Participants are more likely to actively engage in conversations about future possibilities if the language used sparks their interest.
¡Gracias por avisarnos! Ya no verás esta contribución
Excel scenario analysis where numbers reflect management's various cases [base, high, etc.] can be very effective if done properly.
Plus, sophisticated investors/lenders love a well done, well reasoned Excel model with the capability to adjust assumptions and examine various scenarios.
¡Gracias por avisarnos! Ya no verás esta contribución
Key benefits of scenario analysis include:
- It helps companies manage risks more proactively by assessing the impact of potential future events and situations.
- It can help businesses make better decisions by investigating the risks and benefits of different options.
- The methodical approach to analyzing the future may enable companies to spot opportunities or risks that might otherwise be overlooked.
Challenges of Scenario Analysis
-Scenario analysis can be a time-consuming process that requires specific skills and expertise, although modeling tools can help.
-It can be difficult to envision all possible scenarios, make realistic assumptions and assign probabilities to them.
¡Gracias por avisarnos! Ya no verás esta contribución
Three points, 1) Please read "The Art of the Long View" by Peter Schwartz to understand the purpose and limitations of scenario planning as well as a thorough guide to its use. It is a wonderful book. 2) Enormous creativity is required to develop and consider really diverse scenarios. I have never met an executive that could do it and had to invent them myself. I suppose that they are too involved with reality to abstract new realities with orthogonal dimensions. 3) For those from Finance, scenario planning is not sensitivity analysis. If you can do it in Excel, it is not scenario planning.
¡Gracias por avisarnos! Ya no verás esta contribución
Conducting effective scenario analysis involves several best practices. Start by identifying key variables that impact your objectives. Develop a range of scenarios, considering both optimistic and pessimistic outcomes. Assign probabilities to each scenario based on thorough research and expert insights. Regularly update scenarios to reflect changing conditions. Evaluate the impact of each scenario on strategic goals and financial metrics. Maintain flexibility in your approach, and use scenario analysis as a tool for informed decision-making, helping your organization navigate uncertainties and mitigate risks.
¡Gracias por avisarnos! Ya no verás esta contribución
There is a very important aspect to consider in scenario planning, which is usually overlooked. It is vital to assess at least two or three risk factors/events with very, very low probability of occurence, but with very high impact. That is, something that most probably will not occur, but if it does kills the business. That will help improve readiness and assess strategic options usually not taken into account.
¡Gracias por avisarnos! Ya no verás esta contribución
Evaluar la probabilidad y el impacto: Además de desarrollar una matriz de escenarios, es útil evaluar la probabilidad y el impacto de cada escenario identificado. Esto puede ayudar a priorizar los escenarios más relevantes y significativos para la organización, centrándose en aquellos con una combinación alta de probabilidad e impacto potencial.