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2018 United States Senate election in Missouri

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For related races, see 2018 United States Senate elections.

2018 United States Senate election in Missouri
← 2012 November 6, 2018 2024 ⊟
Turnout58.2% Decrease[1]
 
Nominee Josh Hawley Claire McCaskill
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 1,254,927 1,112,935
Percentage 51.4% 45.6%
Hawley:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
McCaskill:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%      50%      No votes
U.S. senator before election

Claire McCaskill
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Josh Hawley
Republican

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The 2018 United States Senate election in Missouri took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Missouri, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections, including Missouri's quadrennial State Auditor election.

This was one of ten Democratic-held Senate seats up for election in a state Donald Trump won in the 2016 presidential election. Incumbent Democratic Senator Claire McCaskill ran for re-election to a third term. McCaskill easily won her party's nomination, defeating several minor candidates in the primary, while Missouri Attorney General Josh Hawley comfortably won the Republican primary.[2]

The candidate filing deadline was March 27, 2018, and the primary election was held on August 7, 2018.[3] Pollsters predicted a tight race, however Hawley defeated McCaskill on election day by 5.8%, taking 51.4% of the vote to McCaskill's 45.6%, a somewhat larger margin than expected. This resulted in Republicans holding both Senate seats in Missouri for the first time since McCaskill took office in 2007. Hawley was also the youngest incumbent senator at that time and continued to be until the inauguration of Jon Ossoff in 2021.[4]

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominated

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]
  • Angelica Earl, former insurance verification specialist[7]
  • David Faust[8]
  • Travis Gonzalez, perennial candidate[8]
  • John Hogan, perennial candidate[8]
  • Leonard Steinman, perennial candidate[8]
  • Carla (Coffee) Wright

Endorsements

[edit]
Claire McCaskill

U.S. President

U.S. Senators

State officials

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
  McCaskill
  •   80–90%
  •   70–80%
  •   60–70%
  •   50–60%
Democratic primary results[17]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Claire McCaskill (incumbent) 501,872 82.60%
Democratic Carla Wright 41,126 6.77%
Democratic John Hogan 15,984 2.63%
Democratic David Faust 15,958 2.63%
Democratic Angelica Earl 15,500 2.55%
Democratic Travis Gonzalez 9,480 1.56%
Democratic Leonard Steinman 7,657 1.26%
Total votes 607,577 100.00%

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominated

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Withdrew

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Josh Hawley

U.S. Presidents

U.S. Vice President

U.S. Executive Branch official

United States Senators

U.S. Representatives

State officials

Cabinet-level officials

Organizations

Austin Petersen

Individuals

Organizations

Courtland Sykes

State judges

Debates

[edit]
Host
network 		Date Link(s) Participants
Josh
Hawley 		Austin
Petersen 		Courtland
Sykes 		Tony
Monetti 		Peter
Pfeifer 		Kirsti
Nichols
America First Missouri May 11, 2018 [53] Absent Present Present Present Present Present

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Josh
Hawley 		Austin
Petersen 		Courtland
Sykes 		Other Undecided
Emerson College[54] April 26–29, 2018 283 ± 6.0% 37% 8% 6% 5% 45%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Josh
Hawley 		David
Steelman 		Ann
Wagner 		David
Wasinger 		Undecided
Remington Research Group[55] April 28–29, 2017 915 ± 3.1% 30% 7% 14% 2% 47%
37% – 16% – 47%

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
  Hawley
  •   60–70%
  •   50–60%
  •   40–50%
  Monetti
  •   40–50%
Republican primary results[17]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Josh Hawley 389,878 58.64%
Republican Tony Monetti 64,834 9.75%
Republican Austin Petersen 54,916 8.26%
Republican Kristi Nichols 49,640 7.47%
Republican Christina Smith 35,024 5.27%
Republican Ken Patterson 19,579 2.95%
Republican Peter Pfeifer 16,863 2.50%
Republican Courtland Sykes 13,870 2.09%
Republican Fred Ryman 8,781 1.32%
Republican Brian Hagg 6,871 1.03%
Republican Bradley Krembs 4,902 0.74%
Total votes 664,889 100.00%

Libertarian primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominated

[edit]
  • Japheth Campbell, entrepreneur[56]

Withdrew

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
Campbell
  •   100%
No votes
  •   No votes
Libertarian primary results[17]
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Japheth Campbell 5,380 100.00%
Total votes 5,380 100.00%

Green primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominated

[edit]
  • Jo Crain

Eliminated in primary

[edit]
  • Jerome Bauer

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
  Crain
  •   100%
  •   80–90%
  •   70–80%
  •   60–70%
  •   50–60%
  Crain/Bauer tie
  •   50%
  Bauer
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   100%
No votes
  •   No votes
Green primary results[17]
Party Candidate Votes %
Green Jo Crain 906 57.67%
Green Jerome Bauer 665 42.33%
Total votes 1,571 100.00%

Independents

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]
  • Craig O'Dear, attorney[60]

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[61] Tossup October 26, 2018
Inside Elections[62] Tilt R (flip) November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[63] Lean R (flip) November 5, 2018
CNN[64] Tossup November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[65] Tossup November 5, 2018
Daily Kos[66] Tossup November 5, 2018
Fox News[67] Tossup November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[68] Tossup November 5, 2018

Debates

[edit]

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018
Candidate Total receipts Total disbursements Cash on hand
Claire McCaskill (D) $35,361,401 $33,863,412 $1,789,381
Josh Hawley (R) $10,221,143 $7,376,209 $2,844,933
Source: Federal Election Commission[69]

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Claire
McCaskill
(D) 		Josh
Hawley
(R) 		Japheth
Campbell
(L) 		Craig
O'Dear
(I) 		Jo
Crain
(G) 		Other Undecided
HarrisX[70] November 3–5, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 45% 46% – – – – –
HarrisX[71] November 2–4, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 44% 47% – – – – –
Trafalgar Group (R)[72] October 29 – November 4, 2018 1,791 ± 2.3% 44% 48% – – – 4% 3%
Emerson College[73] November 1–3, 2018 732 ± 3.8% 46% 49% – – – 3% 3%
HarrisX[74] November 1–3, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 46% 46% – – – – –
Missouri Scout/Remington (R)[75] November 1–2, 2018 1,424 ± 2.6% 47% 47% 1% 1% 1% – 3%
HarrisX[76] October 31 – November 2, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 45% 46% – – – – –
NBC News/Marist[77] October 30 – November 1, 2018 600 LV ± 5.2% 47% 44% 3% – 2% <1% 4%
50% 47% – – – <1% 3%
920 RV ± 4.1% 46% 43% 3% – 2% 1% 6%
50% 46% – – – 1% 4%
HarrisX[78] October 30 – November 1, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 46% 43% – – – – –
HarrisX[79] October 29–31, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 45% 43% – – – – –
HarrisX[80] October 24–30, 2018 1,400 ± 2.6% 46% 44% – – – – –
Fox News[81] October 27–30, 2018 741 LV ± 3.5% 43% 43% 0% 3% 1% 0% 9%
45% 45% – – – 2% 8%
851 RV ± 3.0% 41% 42% 1% 3% 2% 1% 10%
43% 44% – – – 3% 9%
Cygnal (R)[82] October 26–27, 2018 501 ± 4.4% 46% 49% – – – 1% 3%
Missouri Scout/Remington (R)[83] October 24–25, 2018 1,376 ± 2.6% 45% 49% 1% 1% 1% – 3%
Missouri Scout/Remington (R)[84] October 17–18, 2018 1,215 ± 2.7% 46% 47% 2% 1% 1% – 2%
OnMessage Inc. (R-Hawley)[85] October 16–18, 2018 800 ± 3.5% 42% 49% – – – 4% 5%
The Polling Company (R-Citizens United)[86] October 11–13, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 47% 50% – – – 0% 3%
Ipsos[87] September 27 – October 7, 2018 1,111 ± 3.0% 44% 45% 1% 2% 0% 2% 6%
1st Tuesday Campaigns[88] October 5–6, 2018 1,052 ± 3.0% 42% 44% 1% 1% 1% – 11%
Fox News[89] September 29 – October 2, 2018 683 LV ± 3.5% 43% 43% 2% 4% 1% 1% 6%
46% 46% – – – 3% 5%
805 RV ± 3.5% 41% 41% 2% 4% 2% 1% 9%
44% 44% – – – 3% 8%
McLaughlin (R-Missouri Rising Action)[90] September 29 – October 2, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 44% 52% – – – – –
Vox Populi Polling[91] September 29 – October 1, 2018 869 ± 3.3% 49% 51% – – – – –
CNN/SSRS[92] September 25–29, 2018 756 LV ± 4.3% 47% 44% 3% – 1% 0% 4%
906 RV ± 3.9% 43% 42% 4% – 2% 0% 6%
Missouri Scout/Remington (R)[93] September 26–27, 2018 1,555 ± 2.5% 46% 48% – – – – 6%
YouGov[94] September 10–14, 2018 917 – 45% 45% – – – 4% 6%
Trafalgar Group (R)[95] September 11–13, 2018 1,724 ± 2.4% 44% 47% – – – – 8%
Fox News[96] September 8–11, 2018 675 LV ± 3.5% 44% 41% 1% 3% 1% 1% 8%
45% 45% – – – 3% 7%
808 RV ± 3.5% 41% 39% 1% 4% 1% 1% 11%
42% 43% – – – 3% 10%
NBC News/Marist[97] August 25–28, 2018 568 LV ± 4.8% 44% 40% 5% – 3% <1% 8%
47% 47% – – – 1% 5%
774 RV ± 4.2% 43% 39% 6% – 3% <1% 8%
46% 47% – – – 1% 5%
WPA Intelligence (R-Club For Growth)[98] August 12–14, 2018 501 ± 4.4% 41% 48% – – – 3% 8%
Missouri Scout/Remington (R)[99] August 8–9, 2018 1,785 ± 2.3% 47% 47% – – – – 6%
WPA Intelligence (R-Club For Growth)[98] July 10–12, 2018 602 ± 4.0% 42% 43% – – – 4% 11%
The Missouri Times/Remington (R)[100] July 7–8, 2018 1,034 ± 3.2% 46% 48% – – – – 6%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[101] June 11 – July 2, 2018 1,038 ± 5.0% 49% 47% – – – – 4%
McLaughlin (R-Missouri Rising Action)[90] June 2018 – – 46% 42% – – – – –
Global Strategy Group (D-SMP)[102] June 11–13, 2018 804 ± 3.5% 47% 41% – – – – –
Gravis Marketing (R-Petersen)[103] May 16, 2018 822 ± 3.4% 43% 50% – – – – 7%
Missouri Scout/TJP Strategies (D)[104] May 9–10, 2018 898 ± 3.3% 48% 44% – – – – 8%
Emerson College[54] April 26–29, 2018 600 ± 4.2% 45% 45% – – – – 11%
Missouri Scout/TJP Strategies (D)[105] April 19–20, 2018 1,542 ± 2.5% 48% 44% – – – – 8%
OnMessage Inc. (R-Hawley)[106] April 16–18, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 46% 47% – – – – 7%
Global Strategy Group (D-SMP)[102] April 9–12, 2018 – – 46% 44% – – – – –
Mason-Dixon[107] April 4–6, 2018 625 ± 4.0% 45% 44% – – – – 11%
Gravis Marketing[108] March 5–7, 2018 931 ± 3.2% 42% 40% – – – – 18%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[109] February 12 – March 5, 2018 1,938 ± 3.6% 44% 52% – – – – 4%
Public Policy Polling (D-TMI)[110] January 8–9, 2018 965 ± 3.2% 45% 44% – – – – 11%
Missouri Scout/Remington (R)[111] January 3–4, 2018 1,122 ± 2.9% 45% 49% – – – – 6%
Missouri Scout/Remington (R)[112] October 11–12, 2017 965 ± 3.1% 45% 48% – – – – 7%
Missouri Scout/Remington (R)[113] August 16–18, 2017 922 ± 3.0% 45% 50% – – – – 5%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[114] July 10–11, 2017 500 ± 4.4% 42% 46% – – – – 12%
Missouri Scout/Remington (R)[115] July 7–8, 2017 928 ± 3.2% 44% 50% – – – – 6%
Hypothetical polling

with Austin Petersen

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Claire
McCaskill (D) 		Austin
Petersen (R) 		Undecided
Gravis Marketing (R-Petersen)[103] May 16, 2018 822 ± 3.4% 40% 56% 4%

with generic Republican

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Claire
McCaskill (D) 		Generic
Republican 		Undecided
Fabrizio Lee (R)[114] July 10–11, 2017 500 ± 4.4% 38% 54% 8%

with Vicky Hartzler

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Claire
McCaskill (D) 		Vicky
Hartzler (R) 		Undecided
Missouri Scout/Remington (R)[115] July 7–8, 2017 928 ± 3.2% 44% 48% 8%

with Blaine Luetkemeyer

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Claire
McCaskill (D) 		Blaine
Luetkemeyer (R) 		Undecided
Missouri Scout/Remington (R)[115] July 7–8, 2017 928 ± 3.2% 43% 50% 7%

with Todd Richardson

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Claire
McCaskill (D) 		Todd
Richardson (R) 		Undecided
Missouri Scout/Remington (R)[115] July 7–8, 2017 928 ± 3.2% 43% 48% 9%

with Eric Schmitt

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Claire
McCaskill (D) 		Eric
Schmitt (R) 		Undecided
Missouri Scout/Remington (R)[115] July 7–8, 2017 928 ± 3.2% 45% 49% 6%

with Jason Smith

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Claire
McCaskill (D) 		Jason
Smith (R) 		Undecided
Missouri Scout/Remington (R)[115] June 7–8, 2017 928 ± 3.2% 45% 48% 7%

Results

[edit]
State Senate districts results
State House districts results

Sen. McCaskill conceded a few hours after the polls closed on Election Day. Despite performing strongly in the St. Louis suburbs, she ran well behind her 2012 vote in Southeast Missouri, especially in the Lead Belt and the Missouri Bootheel. She also ran poorly in the northern part of the state.[116]

United States Senate election in Missouri, 2018[117]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Josh Hawley 1,254,927 51.38% 12.27
Democratic Claire McCaskill (incumbent) 1,112,935 45.57% −9.24
Independent Craig O'Dear 34,398 1.41% N/A
Libertarian Japheth Campbell 27,316 1.12% −4.95
Green Jo Crain 12,706 0.52% N/A
Write-in 7 <0.01% N/A
Total votes 2,442,289 100.00% N/A
Republican gain from Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

[edit]

By congressional district

[edit]

Hawley won 5 of 8 congressional districts, with the remaining 3 going to McCaskill, including one that elected a Republican.[118]

District McCaskill Hawley Representative
1st 82% 16% Lacy Clay
2nd 50% 48% Ann Wagner
3rd 38% 59% Blaine Luetkemeyer
4th 36% 60% Vicky Hartzler
5th 61% 36% Emanuel Cleaver
6th 39% 58% Sam Graves
7th 31% 65% Billy Long
8th 28% 69% Jason Smith

Voter demographics

[edit]
Edison Research exit poll
Demographic subgroup McCaskill Hawley % of
Voters
Gender
Men 42 57 49
Women 51 47 51
Age
18–24 years old 55 42 6
25–29 years old 57 42 7
30–39 years old 52 45 15
40–49 years old 44 54 16
50–64 years old 43 56 31
65 and older 45 54 25
Race
White 42 57 84
Black 91 8 8
Latino 53 44 4
Race by gender
White men 37 62 41
White women 46 52 43
Black men 91 7 4
Black women 90 9 5
Education
High school or less 34 64 22
Some college education 48 51 27
Associate degree 46 53 14
Bachelor's degree 51 48 22
Advanced degree 58 41 15
Party ID
Democrats 93 6 31
Republicans 7 92 37
Independents 46 51 32
Ideology
Liberals 90 9 23
Moderates 60 37 38
Conservatives 8 91 39
Marital status
Married 43 55 63
Unmarried 57 41 37
Gender by marital status
Married men 39 61 34
Married women 49 49 28
Unmarried men 47 50 11
Unmarried women 64 33 21
First-time midterm election voter
Yes 59 38 13
No 44 56 87
Most important issue facing the country
Immigration 13 86 20
Healthcare 71 27 47
Gun policy 52 47 8
Economy 33 65 23
Area type
Urban 67 32 35
Suburban 42 57 37
Rural 27 71 28
Source: CNN[119]

References

[edit]
  1. ^ 2018 Voter Turnout Report (PDF), Missouri Secretary of State, December 7, 2018
  2. ^ Wise, Lindsay (October 17, 2017). "GOP's top Senate recruit in Missouri won't commit to voting for McConnell as leader". McClatchy. Retrieved July 29, 2018.
  3. ^ "United States Senate election in Missouri, 2018 - Ballotpedia". Retrieved March 3, 2017.
  4. ^ "Missouri Election Results". The New York Times. November 11, 2018. Retrieved November 11, 2018.
  5. ^ Wise, Lindsay (September 1, 2016). "McCaskill to seek third term in U.S. Senate". McClatchy Washington Bureau. Retrieved November 17, 2016.
  6. ^ Mannies, Jo (November 18, 2016). "Undaunted by Democratic setbacks, McCaskill running for re-election in 2018". St. Louis Public Radio. Retrieved November 28, 2016.
  7. ^ McDermott, Kevin (August 9, 2017). "McCaskill faces primary challenge from the left by political novice". St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Retrieved August 12, 2017.
  8. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l "Candidate Filing List, 2018 Primary Election". Missouri Secretary of State. Retrieved June 20, 2018.
  9. ^ "Obama coming to California to raise money for an endangered Democratic senator". Los Angeles Times. March 30, 2018. Retrieved March 31, 2018.
  10. ^ "MO & WI-Sen: Sen Catherine Cortez Masto (D. NV) Helps These Dems Keep Up The Resistance". Daily Kos. September 30, 2017.
  11. ^ "MO-Sen: Dick Durbin (D. IL) Slams Josh Hawley (R) Over Remarks Linking Feminism To Sex Trafficking". Daily Kos. February 6, 2018.
  12. ^ "MO-Sen: Kamala Harris (D. CA) Helps Claire McCaskill (D) Fight Back To Defeat Trumpcare". Daily Kos. June 13, 2017.
  13. ^ "MA & MO-Sen: Maggie Hassan (D. NH) Helps Warren (D) & McCaskill (D) Fight Back Against Trump". Daily Kos. May 31, 2017.
  14. ^ Jones sent out an email to supporters soliciting donations to McCaskill.
  15. ^ "MA, WI, MO & NV-Sen: Elizabeth Warren (D) Helps These Dems Keep Up The Resistance Against Trump". Daily Kos. September 16, 2017.
  16. ^ "Trump, in visit to Missouri, endorses Josh Hawley while promoting GOP tax plan". KansasCity.com. Retrieved January 17, 2018.
  17. ^ a b c d "2018 Missouri primary election results". Retrieved June 12, 2019.
  18. ^ "Hawley Announces Bid Against McCaskill". Roll Call. October 10, 2017. Retrieved October 10, 2017.
  19. ^ "Austin Petersen Announces He's Running for US Senate as Republican". Liberty Hangout. July 3, 2017. Retrieved July 4, 2017.
  20. ^ "Exclusive: Libertarian Activist Austin Petersen Is Running for U.S. Senate...as a Republican! [Reason Podcast]". Reason Magazine. July 4, 2017. Retrieved July 4, 2017.
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  23. ^ "Trump supporters, protesters turn out for presidential visit in Springfield". The Columbia Missourian. August 30, 2017. Retrieved January 7, 2018.
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  27. ^ "State Rep. Curtman backs off possible U.S. Senate bid". St. Louis Post-Dispatch. October 14, 2017. Retrieved October 14, 2017.
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[edit]

Official campaign websites

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