2009 Queensland state election

2009 Queensland state election

21 March 2009 (2009-03-21)
All 89 seats in the Legislative Assembly of Queensland 45 Assembly seats were needed for a majority
Turnout	90.93 ( 0.46 pp)
First party Second party Third party   ON Leader Anna Bligh Lawrence Springborg Rosa Lee Long Party Labor Liberal National One Nation Leader since 13 September 2007 (2007-09-13) 21 January 2008 (2008-01-21) 7 February 2004 (2004-02-07) Leader's seat South Brisbane Southern Downs Tablelands (lost seat) Last election 59 seats, 46.92% 25 seats, 37.92% 1 seat, 0.60% Seats won 51 seats 34 seats 0 Seat change 8 9 1 Popular vote 1,002,415 987,018 9,038 Percentage 42.25% 41.60% 0.38% Swing 4.67 3.68 0.22 TPP 50.9% 49.1% TPP swing 4.1 4.1
Winning margin by electorate.
Premier before election Anna Bligh Labor Elected Premier Anna Bligh Labor

The 2009 Queensland state election was held on 21 March 2009 to elect all 89 members of the Legislative Assembly, a unicameral parliament.

The election saw the incumbent Labor government led by Premier Anna Bligh defeat the Liberal National Party of Queensland led by Opposition Leader Lawrence Springborg, and gain a fifth consecutive term in office for her party. Bligh thus became the first female Premier of any Australian State elected in her own right.

This was the first election contested by the LNP following its creation with the merger of the National and Liberal parties.

The 2009 election marked the eighth consecutive victory of Labor in a general election since 1989, although it was out of office between 1996 and 1998 as a direct result of the 1996 Mundingburra by-election.

Background

See also: 2006 Queensland state election and Candidates of the 2009 Queensland state election

The Labor Party, led by Premier Anna Bligh, and the LNP, led by Opposition Leader Lawrence Springborg, were the two main parties in Queensland at the election. It was the first election contested by the LNP following its creation with the merger of the National and Liberal parties. At the previous election, Labor won 59 seats, the Nationals won 17 seats, the Liberals won eight seats, One Nation won one seat, and independents won four seats. Former Labor MP Ronan Lee joined the Greens in 2008, thus becoming their parliamentary leader. Lee lost his seat at the election.

A redistribution saw Labor notionally pick up three seats. Therefore, the LNP notionally needed to pick up 22 seats rather than 20 seats to form a majority government, which equated to an unchanged uniform 8.3 percent two party preferred swing.

Former Premier Peter Beattie resigned in September 2007, which triggered the October 2007 Brisbane Central by-election.

Key dates

Date	Event
23 February 2009	Writs were issued by the Governor to proceed with an election.
28 February 2009	Close of electoral rolls
3 March 2009	Close of nominations
21 March 2009	Polling day, between the hours of 8am and 6pm
26 March 2009	The Bligh Ministry was reconstituted
7 April 2009	The writ was returned and the results formally declared
12 April 2009	53rd Parliament convened

Electoral redistribution

A redistribution of electoral boundaries occurred in 2008.

The electorates of Charters Towers, Cunningham, Darling Downs, Fitzroy, Kurwongbah, Mount Gravatt, Robina, and Tablelands were abolished.

The electorates of Buderim, Condamine, Coomera, Dalrymple, Mermaid Beach, Morayfield, Pine Rivers, and Sunnybank were created.

The redistribution merged Charters Towers with Tablelands to create Dalrymple, Fitzroy into Mirani, and Cunningham with Darling Downs to create Condamine, all in regional Queensland. Buderim was created on the Sunshine Coast, Morayfield in the corridor north of Brisbane, and Coomera was created on the Gold Coast. Kurwongbah was renamed Pine Rivers, Mount Gravatt was renamed Sunnybank, and Robina was renamed Mermaid Beach. Burdekin, Clayfield, and Mirani notionally became Labor-held, while Glass House notionally became National-held.

The changes resulted in 62 notionally Labor-held seats, 8 notionally Liberal-held seats, 15 notionally National-held seats, and 4 notionally Independent-held seats.

Results

Main article: Results of the 2009 Queensland state election

Winning party by electorate.

The Gallagher Index result: 12.47

Queensland state election, 21 March 2009 Legislative Assembly << 2006–2012 >>
Enrolled voters		2,660,940
Votes cast		2,419,559		Turnout	90.93	0.46
Informal votes		46,908		Informal	1.94	–0.14
Summary of votes by party
Party		Primary votes	%	Swing	Seats	Change
	Labor	1,002,415	42.25	–4.67	51	–8
	Liberal National	987,018	41.60	3.68	34	9
	Greens	198,475	8.37	0.38	0	±0
	DS4SEQ	22,170	0.93	0.93	0	±0
	Family First	19,379	0.82	–1.07	0	±0
	One Nation	9,038	0.38	–0.22	0	–1
	Independent	134,156	5.65	0.97	4	±0
Total		2,372,651			89
Two-party-preferred
	Labor		50.9	−4.1
	Liberal National		49.1	4.1
* The two-party preferred summary is an estimate by Antony Green using a methodology by Malcolm Mackerras.

Popular vote Labor   42.45% LNP   41.60% Greens   8.37% DS4SEQ   0.93% Family First   0.82% One Nation   0.38% Independents   5.65%

Two-party preferred vote Labor   50.9% LNP   49.1%

Seats Labor   57.30% LNP   38.20% Independents   4.49%

Seats changing hands

Seat	2008 Redistribution				Swing	2009 Election
	Party		Member	Margin		Margin	Member	Party
Aspley		Labor	Bonny Barry	3.0	-7.46	4.46	Tracy Davis	Liberal National
Burdekin		Labor	notional	0.9	-4.05	3.15	Rosemary Menkens	Liberal National
Clayfield		Labor	notional	0.3	-6.14	5.84	Tim Nicholls	Liberal National
Cleveland		Labor	Phil Weightman	1.2	-1.48	0.28	Mark Robinson	Liberal National
Coomera		Labor	notional	8.3	-10.21	1.91	Michael Crandon	Liberal National
Gaven		Labor	Phil Gray	3.2	-3.92	0.72	Alex Douglas	Liberal National
Hervey Bay		Labor	Andrew McNamara	2.1	-8.60	6.50	Ted Sorensen	Liberal National
Indooroopilly		Labor	Ronan Lee¹	2.7	-8.57	5.87	Scott Emerson	Liberal National
Mirani		Labor	Jim Pearce	1.2	-1.79	0.59	Ted Malone	Liberal National
Mudgeeraba		Labor	Dianne Reilly	2.7	-6.62	3.92	Ros Bates	Liberal National
Redlands		Labor	John English	6.7	-6.77	0.07	Peter Dowling	Liberal National

• Members listed in italics did not contest their seat at this election.
• ¹ Ronan Lee was elected as a member of the Labor Party, but resigned and joined the Greens.
• The Liberal National Party retained the seat of Glass House which had a notional Liberal National margin.

Post-election pendulum

Non-government seats
Marginal
Redlands	Peter Dowling	LNP	0.07%
Cleveland	Mark Robinson	LNP	0.28%
Mirani	Ted Malone	LNP	0.59%
Gaven	Alex Douglas	LNP	0.72%
Coomera	Michael Crandon	LNP	1.91%
Burdekin	Rosemary Menkens	LNP	3.15%
Mudgeeraba	Ros Bates	LNP	3.92%
Aspley	Tracy Davis	LNP	4.46%
Dalrymple	Shane Knuth	LNP	5.18% v ONP
Glass House	Andrew Powell	LNP	5.81%
Clayfield	Tim Nicholls	LNP	5.84%
Indooroopilly	Scott Emerson	LNP	5.87%
Fairly Safe
Bundaberg	Jack Dempsey	LNP	6.02%
Caloundra	Mark McArdle	LNP	6.20%
Hervey Bay	Ted Sorensen	LNP	6.50%
Currumbin	Jann Stuckey	LNP	6.89%
Kawana	Jarrod Bleijie	LNP	6.93%
Lockyer	Ian Rickuss	LNP	7.61%
Toowoomba South	Mike Horan	LNP	8.22%
Beaudesert	Aidan McLindon	LNP	8.31%
Safe
Mermaid Beach	Ray Stevens	LNP	10.81%
Burnett	Rob Messenger	LNP	11.10%
Moggill	Bruce Flegg	LNP	11.28%
Condamine	Ray Hopper	LNP	11.56% v IND
Maroochydore	Fiona Simpson	LNP	12.80%
Gregory	Vaughan Johnson	LNP	14.26%
Buderim	Steve Dickson	LNP	14.28%
Hinchinbrook	Andrew Cripps	LNP	14.69%
Surfers Paradise	John-Paul Langbroek	LNP	16.52%
Callide	Jeff Seeney	LNP	19.36%
Noosa	Glen Elmes	LNP	19.85%
Very Safe
Southern Downs	Lawrence Springborg	LNP	21.08%
Warrego	Howard Hobbs	LNP	24.38%
Gympie	David Gibson	LNP	27.21%
Crossbench seats
Nanango	Dorothy Pratt	IND	2.90% v LNP
Gladstone	Liz Cunningham	IND	6.13% v ALP
Nicklin	Peter Wellington	IND	16.31% v LNP
Maryborough	Chris Foley	IND	16.83% v LNP

Subsequent changes

• On 5 May 2010, Aidan McLindon (Beaudesert) and Rob Messenger (Burnett) resigned from the Liberal National Party. On 11 October 2011, Aidan McLindon joined Katter's Australian Party.
• On 31 October 2011, Shane Knuth (Dalrymple) resigned from the Liberal National Party and joined the Katter's Australian Party.

Polling

Newspoll polling was conducted via random telephone number selection in city and country areas. Sampling sizes usually consist of around 1000 electors, with the declared margin of error at around ±3 percent.

Better Premier ratings^

Date	Labor Bligh	Coalition/LNP Springborg
18 – 19 Mar 2009	53%	33%
27 Feb – 8 Mar 2009	48%	34%
Jan – Feb 2009	48%	31%
Oct – Dec 2008	49%	30%
Jul – Sep 2008	53%	27%
Apr – Jun 2008	60%	24%
Jan – Mar 2008	64%	18%
Oct – Dec 2007	66%	11%2
Jul – Sep 2007	54%1	25%2
Apr – Jun 2007	54%1	19%2
Pre 2006 election	58%1	28%
Pre 2004 election	62%1	22%
Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian. ^ Remainder were "uncommitted" to either leader. 1 Peter Beattie, 2 Jeff Seeney

Legislative Assembly opinion polling

	Political parties							Two party preferred
Dates	ALP	Lib	Nat	LNP	Grn	FFP	Oth	ALP	LNP
18 – 19 Mar 2009	42%			42%	7%	0.5%	8%	49.9%	50.1%
27 Feb – 8 Mar 2009	41%			43%	8%	<0.5%	8%	49%	51%
Jan – Feb 2009	42%			41%	7%	<0.5%	10%	53%	47%
Oct – Dec 2008	45%			37%	8%	<0.5%	10%	57%	43%
Jul – Sep 2008	38%			41%	9%	1%	11%	51%	49%
Apr – Jun 2008	43%	26%	12%	38%	10%	<0.5%	9%	55%	45%
Jan – Mar 2008	50%	22%	10%	32%	8%	<0.5%	10%	60%	40%
Oct – Dec 2007	50%	26%	9%	35%	6%	1%	8%	59%	41%
Jul – Sep 2007	50%	21%	12%	33%	5%	2%	10%	59%	41%
Apr – Jun 2007	51%	20%	11%	31%	6%	1%	11%	61%	39%
2006 election	46.9%	20.1%	17.8%	37.9%	8.0%	1.9%	5.3%	55.0%	45.0%
6 – 7 Sep 2006	48%	21%	17%	38%	4%	1%	9%	55%	45%
2004 election	47%	18.5%	17%	35.5%	6.7%	4.9%	5.9%	55.5%	44.5%
Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian.

See also

• Candidates of the Queensland state election, 2009
• Members of the Queensland Legislative Assembly, 2006–2009
• Members of the Queensland Legislative Assembly, 2009–2012

External links

• Electoral Commission Queensland
• 2009 Queensland election - Antony Green ABC