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2010 Oregon gubernatorial election

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2010 Oregon gubernatorial election
← 2006 November 2, 2010 2014 ⊟
 
Nominee John Kitzhaber Chris Dudley
Party Democratic Republican
Alliance Independent Party
Popular vote 716,525 694,287
Percentage 49.29% 47.76%
County results

Kitzhaber:      40–50%      50–60%      70–80%

Dudley:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Governor before election

Ted Kulongoski
Democratic

Elected Governor

John Kitzhaber
Democratic

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The 2010 Oregon gubernatorial election was held on Tuesday, November 2, 2010 to elect the Governor of Oregon to a four-year term beginning on January 10, 2011. The incumbent governor, Democrat Ted Kulongoski, was ineligible to run due to term limits barring him from being elected to more than two consecutive terms.

The Democratic candidate John Kitzhaber, who had previously served two terms as governor from 1995 to 2003, was elected to a third term, earning a narrow victory over Republican candidate Chris Dudley and two minor party candidates. Kitzhaber's election marked the first time in Oregon's history that a person has been elected to a third term as governor.

Oregon first used its new cross-nomination system, a form of fusion voting, in the 2010 general elections. In this system, a candidate for partisan public office can be nominated by up to three political parties.[1] Kitzhaber was nominated by the Independent Party of Oregon in addition to the Democratic Party.

Almost every opinion poll throughout the election season showed a statistical tie between the two, state Republicans saw this election as the best chance to win the governorship since the last Republican governor, Victor Atiyeh, was re-elected in 1982. Once polls closed on election day, Dudley had led in early vote counts, but Kitzhaber narrowly won due to wide margins in Multnomah and Lane counties.[2] However, this remains the closest Republicans have come to winning the governorship since that election.

Democratic primary

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Candidates

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Polling

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Poll source Date administered John Kitzhaber Bill Bradbury Undecided
Davis, Hibbetts & Midghall[3] May 8–10, 2010 53% 23% 22%
Survey USA[4] May 7–9, 2010 59% 25% 12%

Results

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Results by county:
  Kitzhaber
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
Oregon Democratic gubernatorial primary results[5]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic John Kitzhaber 242,545 64.78
Democratic Bill Bradbury 110,298 29.46
Democratic Roger Obrist 16,057 4.29
Democratic Write-ins 5,504 1.47
Total votes 374,404 100.00

Republican primary

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Chris Dudley sign

Candidates

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Polling

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Poll source Date administered Chris Dudley Allen Alley John Lim Bill Sizemore Undecided
Davis, Hibbetts & Midghall[3] May 8–10, 2010 33% 23% 8% 6% 24%
Survey USA[4] May 7–9, 2010 42% 24% 8% 8% 14%

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
  Dudley
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Alley
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
Oregon Republican gubernatorial primary results[5]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Chris Dudley 122,855 39.11
Republican Allen Alley 99,753 31.76
Republican John Lim 47,339 15.07
Republican Bill Sizemore 23,522 7.49
Republican William Ames Curtright 12,497 3.98
Republican Rex O. Watkins 3,060 0.97
Republican Write-ins 2,001 0.64
Republican Clark Colvin 1,206 0.38
Republican Darren Karr 1,127 0.36
Republican Bob Forthan 727 0.23
Total votes 314,087 100.00

Independent Party primary

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Oregon first used its new cross nomination system, a form of fusion voting, in the 2010 general elections. In this system, a candidate for partisan public office can be nominated by up to three political parties.[1] As a result, the Independent Party of Oregon did not file a candidate and instead chose to hold a month-long online primary in July.[6] In doing so, it became the first political party in the United States to conduct a binding statewide primary election entirely over the Internet,[7] and it was the largest nominating process ever held by an Oregon minor political party.[8] Republican Chris Dudley did not apply for the Independent Party nomination by the required date, so he was not on the ballot, but he could be written in.[6]

Candidates

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Results

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Independent Party of Oregon gubernatorial primary results[9]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic John Kitzhaber 850 38.39
Independent Party Richard Esterman 438 19.78
Independent Party Write-ins 314 14.18
Independent Party None of the above 312 14.09
Progressive Jerry Wilson 300 13.55
Total votes 2,214 100.00

General election

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Voters' pamphlet for the 2010 general election

Candidates

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Campaign

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Following the primaries, the two leading candidates, Dudley and Kitzhaber, campaigned separately throughout the state for the summer. Despite attempts by both campaigns to arrange a debate, the candidates could only agree on a single debate on September 30.[10] Through the end of September, the Dudley campaign had raised $5.6 million, more than twice as much as the Kitzhaber campaign.[11]

Throughout the last few months of the campaign, opinion polls showed a tight race with the lead apparently changing frequently. Due to the closeness of the race, President Barack Obama, for whom Oregon voted by a 16-percent margin in 2008, stumped for Kitzhaber; then headlined a rally at the Oregon Convention Center in Portland on October 20, 2010.

Newspaper endorsements

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Newspaper Endorsement
The Oregonian (Portland) John Kitzhaber[12]
Willamette Week (Portland) John Kitzhaber[13]
Portland Tribune John Kitzhaber[14]
The Register-Guard (Eugene) John Kitzhaber[15]
Statesman Journal (Salem) Chris Dudley[16]
Mail Tribune (Medford) John Kitzhaber[17]
The Bulletin (Bend) Chris Dudley[18]
East Oregonian (Pendleton) John Kitzhaber[19]
The Lake Oswego Review John Kitzhaber[20]
The News-Review (Roseburg) John Kitzhaber[21]
The Outlook (Gresham) John Kitzhaber[22]
The Daily Astorian John Kitzhaber[23]
Corvallis Gazette-Times John Kitzhaber[24]
News-Register (McMinnville) Chris Dudley[25]
The Sandy Post John Kitzhaber[26]
Beaverton Valley Times John Kitzhaber[27]
West Linn Tidings John Kitzhaber[28]

Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[29] Tossup October 14, 2010
Rothenberg[30] Tossup October 28, 2010
RealClearPolitics[31] Tossup November 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball[32] Lean R (flip) October 28, 2010
CQ Politics[33] Lean D October 28, 2010

Polling

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Poll source Date(s) administered Margin of error John
Kitzhaber (D) 		Chris
Dudley (R) 		Other candidate(s) Undecided
Davis & Hibbitts[34] October 30–31, 2010 ± 3.1% 46% 43%
Survey USA[35] October 23–28, 2010 ± 4.2% 48% 41% 2% 8%
Rasmussen Reports[36] October 25, 2010 ± 4.0% 46% 49% 3% 3%
Hibbitts[37] October 24–25, 2010 ± 4.4% 42% 45% 2% 12%
Elway Research[38] October 18–19, 2010 ± 4.4% 45% 44% 3% 5%
Public Policy Polling[39] October 16–17, 2010 ± 2.8% 48% 47% 5%
Survey USA[40] October 12–14, 2010 ± 3.9% 46% 45% 4% 5%
Rasmussen Reports[41] October 10, 2010 ± 4.0% 48% 46% 3% 4%
Survey USA[42] September 12–14, 2010 ± 4.2% 43% 49% 5% 3%
Riley Research[43] August 31 – September 9, 2010 ± 5.0% 40% 39% 5% 16%
Rasmussen Reports[44] September 8, 2010 ± 4.0% 44% 49% 2% 5%
Rasmussen Reports[45] August 22, 2010 ± 4.0% 44% 45% 3% 8%
Grove Insight[46] August 18–21, 2010 ± 4.0% 44% 35% 4% 14%
Survey USA[47] July 25–27, 2010 ± 4.2% 44% 46% 7% 4%
Rasmussen Reports[48] July 26, 2010 ± 4.0% 44% 47% 5% 4%
Magellan Strategies[49] June 28, 2010 ± 3.2% 40% 41% 10% 9%
Davis, Hibbits and Midghall[50] June 21, 2010 unk 41% 41% 6% 12%
Rasmussen Reports[51] June 17, 2010 ± 4.5% 45% 47% 4% 4%
Survey USA[52] June 7–9, 2010 ± 4.2% 40% 47% 6% 7%
Rasmussen Reports[53] May 20, 2010 ± 4.5% 44% 45% 4% 6%
Rasmussen Reports[54] April 26, 2010 ± 4.0% 41% 41% 4% 4%
Moore Insight[55] February 20–21, 2010 ± 4.0% 45% 33% 21%
Rasmussen Reports[56] February 17, 2010 ± 4.5% 42% 36% 7% 15%

Results

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Statewide results

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Kitzhaber gives his victory speech after winning the Oregon governorship
Oregon gubernatorial election, 2010[57]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic John Kitzhaber 716,525 49.29% −1.43%
Republican Chris Dudley 694,287 47.76% 5.01%
Constitution Greg Kord 20,475 1.41% −2.23%
Libertarian Wes Wagner 19,048 1.31% 0.09%
Write-ins 3,213 0.22%
Majority 22,238 1.53% −6.45%
Turnout 1,453,548
Democratic hold Swing

County results

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Dudley won 29 of Oregon's 36 counties. Kitzhaber won seven, including Multnomah County by a 43% margin of victory.[57]

County Kitzhaber Votes Dudley Votes Kord Votes Wagner Votes Various Votes Total
Baker 26.8% 1,949 68.1% 4,816 2.6% 187 2.3% 166 0.3% 21 7,276
Benton 59.4% 21,498 38.0% 13,767 1.1% 399 1.2% 448 0.2% 77 36,189
Clackamas 44.3% 69,250 53.4% 83,516 1.1% 1,686 1.0% 1,547 0.2% 288 156,287
Clatsop 51.3% 7,654 45.5% 6,792 1.3% 196 1.6% 166 0.2% 37 14,913
Columbia 44.4% 8,973 51.0% 10,302 2.4% 493 1.8% 368 0.3% 54 20,190
Coos 41.3% 10,456 53.9% 13,652 2.4% 618 2.3% 583 0.1% 34 25,343
Crook 26.1% 2,314 70.3% 6,231 1.7% 152 1.6% 144 0.2% 21 8,862
Curry 38.8% 3,986 56.0% 5,761 2.7% 275 2.4% 245 0.1% 14 10,281
Deschutes 38.1% 24,289 59.1% 37,706 1.3% 861 1.3% 815 0.2% 112 63,783
Douglas 32.5% 14,072 63.3% 27,438 2.2% 952 1.9% 807 0.2% 66 43,335
Gilliam 32.0% 308 64.4% 620 2.6% 25 0.7% 7 0.2% 2 962
Grant 21.6% 749 74.3% 2,576 2.5% 86 1.4% 50 0.2% 8 3,469
Harney 23.8% 800 72.3% 2,436 2.3% 76 1.4% 48 0.2% 8 3,368
Hood River 56.7% 4,778 40.7% 3,434 1.1% 95 1.2% 103 0.2% 17 8,427
Jackson 41.7% 32,360 55.0% 42,715 1.8% 1,389 1.4% 1,117 0.1% 109 77,690
Jefferson 32.3% 2,132 64.2% 4,240 1.7% 110 1.7% 110 0.2% 10 6,602
Josephine 34.7% 11,558 60.2% 20,025 3.1% 1,018 1.9% 646 0.1% 43 33,290
Klamath 25.1% 5,820 70.4% 16,295 2.4% 560 1.8% 428 0.2% 55 23,158
Lake 21.0% 658 74.2% 2,323 2.6% 80 2.0% 64 0.3% 6 3,131
Lane 57.0% 81,731 40.0% 57,394 1.3% 1,855 1.4% 2,045 0.3% 488 143,513
Lincoln 53.0% 10,484 43.2% 8,540 1.8% 347 2.0% 389 0.2% 31 19,791
Linn 34.8% 14,466 61.1% 25,370 2.2% 898 1.7% 708 0.3% 110 41,552
Malheur 24.4% 1,884 70.4% 5,440 3.2% 246 2.0% 157 0.1% 5 7,732
Marion 44.4% 44,795 52.7% 53,177 1.5% 1,530 1.2% 1,192 0.2% 242 100,936
Morrow 26.8% 850 68.8% 2,184 2.7% 87 1.5% 48 0.2% 6 3,175
Multnomah 70.6% 198,157 27.4% 76,915 0.8% 2,149 1.0% 2,879 0.3% 750 280,850
Polk 43.4% 12,899 53.7% 15,966 1.5% 456 1.1% 336 0.2% 67 29,724
Sherman 26.3% 238 70.1% 634 1.7% 15 1.9% 17 0.1% 1 905
Tillamook 46.0% 5,072 50.8% 5,604 1.5% 163 1.6% 173 0.2% 19 11,031
Umatilla 32.1% 6,321 63.8% 12,574 2.2% 441 1.6% 320 0.2% 47 19,703
Union 31.6% 3,366 64.5% 6,869 2.1% 221 1.5% 165 0.3% 31 10,652
Wallowa 28.6% 1,088 67.9% 2,581 2.1% 79 1.1% 43 0.2% 9 3,800
Wasco 43.2% 4,024 53.1% 4,938 1.7% 161 1.7% 156 0.3% 27 9,306
Washington 49.6% 92,811 48.1% 89,926 1.1% 1,977 1.1% 1,983 0.2% 336 187,033
Wheeler 28.6% 216 66.3% 500 2.9% 22 2.0% 15 0.1% 1 754
Yamhill 39.7% 14,519 57.2% 20,893 1.6% 570 1.3% 492 0.2% 61 36,535

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

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See also

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References

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  1. ^ a b Mapes, Jeff (July 8, 2009). "Kulongoski will sign fusion voting bill". The Oregonian. Retrieved October 12, 2010.
  2. ^ "The Oregonian's prediction: John Kitzhaber wins Oregon governor race". The Oregonian. November 3, 2010. Retrieved November 3, 2010.
  3. ^ a b Davis, Hibbetts & Midghall Archived May 23, 2010, at the Wayback Machine
  4. ^ a b Survey USA
  5. ^ a b "Official Results: May 18, 2010 Primary Election". records.sos.state.or.us. Retrieved April 2, 2020.
  6. ^ a b "IPO primary FAQ". Archived from the original on September 25, 2010. Retrieved October 12, 2010.
  7. ^ "E-voting not ready yet". The Oregonian. Retrieved August 11, 2010.
  8. ^ "Oregon Independent Party Releases Results of its Private Primary". Ballot Access News. Retrieved August 11, 2010.
  9. ^ "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on August 17, 2011. Retrieved October 21, 2016.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  10. ^ Esteve, Harry (October 1, 2010). "John Kitzhaber and Chris Dudley spar in Oregon gubernatorial campaign's only debate". The Oregonian. Retrieved October 1, 2010.
  11. ^ Steves, David (September 29, 2010). "Dudley doubles donor dollars". The Register-Guard. Retrieved October 1, 2010.
  12. ^ "Our endorsement: Kitzhaber for governor". The Oregonian. Portland. October 10, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010.
  13. ^ "Save Our State!". Willamette Week. Portland. October 13, 2010. Archived from the original on November 2, 2010. Retrieved November 7, 2010.
  14. ^ "Let Kitzhaber steer state into future". Portland Tribune. Pamplin Media Group. October 14, 2010. Retrieved November 7, 2010.
  15. ^ "Kitzhaber for governor: Oregon needs experience, not a fresh face". The Register-Guard. Eugene. October 17, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010.
  16. ^ "Chris Dudley worth taking a risk on: Candidate more likely to bring jobs, unity to state". Statesman Journal. Salem. October 10, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010.[permanent dead link‍]
  17. ^ "Governor: John Kitzhaber: Oregon's problems are too complex for a newcomer; the state needs his experience". Mail Tribune. Medford. October 17, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010.
  18. ^ "Pick Dudley for governor". The Bulletin. Bend. October 15, 2010. Archived from the original on July 7, 2011. Retrieved November 6, 2010.
  19. ^ "Kitzhaber brings a clear vision for Oregon's future". East Oregonian. Pendleton. October 17, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010.[permanent dead link‍]
  20. ^ "It's Kitzhaber by a nose in state gubernatorial contest". The Lake Oswego Review. October 21, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010.
  21. ^ "Kitzhaber's experience more valuable than fresh face". The News-Review. Roseburg. October 24, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010.
  22. ^ "Kitzhaber must use experience to bring change". The Outlook. Gresham. October 16, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010.
  23. ^ "John Kitzhaber for governor". The Daily Astorian. October 7, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010.[permanent dead link‍]
  24. ^ "Kitzhaber best suited to lead Oregon". Corvallis Gazette-Times. October 21, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010.
  25. ^ "Endorsement summary: November 2010 general election". News-Register. McMinnville. October 30, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010.[permanent dead link‍]
  26. ^ "Kitzhaber must use experience to bring change". The Sandy Post. Pamplin Media Group. October 20, 2010. Retrieved April 20, 2013.
  27. ^ "Kitzhaber earns slim nod thanks to his experience". Beaverton Valley Times. Pamplin Media Group. October 14, 2010. Retrieved April 20, 2013.
  28. ^ "Let Kitzhaber steer Oregon". West Linn Tidings. Pamplin Media Group. October 21, 2010. Retrieved April 20, 2013.
  29. ^ "2010 Governors Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  30. ^ "Governor Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  31. ^ "2010 Governor Races". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  32. ^ "THE CRYSTAL BALL'S FINAL CALLS". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  33. ^ "Race Ratings Chart: Governor". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 5, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  34. ^ Davis & Hibbitts Archived December 5, 2010, at the Wayback Machine
  35. ^ Survey USA
  36. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  37. ^ Hibbitts Archived November 4, 2010, at the Wayback Machine
  38. ^ Elway Research
  39. ^ Public Policy Polling
  40. ^ Survey USA
  41. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  42. ^ Survey USA
  43. ^ Riley Research Archived September 23, 2010, at the Wayback Machine
  44. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  45. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  46. ^ Grove Insight
  47. ^ Survey USA
  48. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  49. ^ Magellan Strategies
  50. ^ Davis, Hibbits and Midghall Archived June 26, 2010, at the Wayback Machine
  51. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  52. ^ Survey USA
  53. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  54. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  55. ^ Moore Insight
  56. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  57. ^ a b "Official Results: November 2, 2010 General Election". records.sos.state.or.us. Retrieved April 2, 2020.
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Official campaign websites (Archived)

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