Opinion polling for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
Since the 2022 Brazilian general election, polling companies have published surveys tracking voting intention for the next election. The results of these surveys are listed below in reverse chronological order and include candidates who frequently polled above 3%.
Opinion polls
[edit]2024
[edit]First round
[edit]| Publisher/Pollster | Polling period |
Sample size |
 Lula PT |
 Haddad PT |
 Freitas Republicanos |
 J. Bolsonaro[a] PL |
 Marçal PRTB |
 M. Bolsonaro PL |
 Gomes PDT |
 Zema NOVO |
 Ratinho PSD |
 Moro UNIÃO |
 Caiado UNIÃO |
 Leite PSDB |
 Barbalho MDB |
 Tebet MDB |
 Cristina PP |
Blank/Null/ Undec. |
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paraná Pesquisas[1] | 21–25 Nov 2024 | 2,014 | 33.6% | — | — | 37.6% | — | — | 7.9% | — | — | — | 3.7% | — | — | 7.7% | — | 9.6% | 4% |
| 34.2% | — | — | — | — | 27.5% | 10.2% | — | — | — | 6.4% | — | — | 8.2% | — | 13.5% | 6.7% | |||
| 34.7% | — | 24.1% | — | — | — | 11.5% | — | — | — | 5.3% | — | — | 8.4% | — | 16.1% | 10.6% | |||
| 34.4% | — | — | — | — | — | 12.8% | — | 15.3% | — | 8.9% | — | — | 8.7% | — | 19.9% | 19.1% | |||
| 34.7% | — | — | — | — | — | 13.4% | 12.2% | — | — | 8% | — | — | 9.5% | — | 22.2% | 21.3% | |||
| — | 14.5% | — | 38.3% | — | — | 14.2% | — | — | — | 4.4% | — | — | 13% | — | 15.6% | 23.8% | |||
| — | 14.9% | — | — | — | 27.6% | 17% | — | — | — | 7.1% | — | — | 13.5% | — | 19.9% | 10.6% | |||
| CNT/MDA[2] | 7–10 Nov 2024 | 2,002 | 35.2% | — | — | 32.2% | 8.4% | — | 6.2% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 8% | — | 10% | 3% |
| 34.1% | — | — | — | 14.1% | 20.5% | 9.3% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 9.2% | — | 12.8% | 13.6% | |||
| 35.2% | — | 15% | — | 16.9% | — | 9.4% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 9.5% | — | 14% | 18.3% | |||
| Paraná Pesquisas[3] | 18–22 Jul 2024 | 2,026 | 38.3% | — | — | 36.9% | — | — | 7.9% | — | — | — | 3% | 1.9% | 0.5% | — | — | 11.6% | 1.4% |
| 38.7% | — | — | — | — | 30.3% | 9.1% | — | — | — | 4.5% | 2.3% | 0.6% | — | — | 14.5% | 8.4% | |||
| 38.9% | — | 24.4% | — | — | — | 11.8% | — | — | — | 4% | 2.7% | 0.6% | — | — | 17.6% | 14.5% | |||
| 39% | — | — | — | — | — | 12.4% | — | 14.2% | — | 7.5% | 3.3% | 0.7% | — | — | 22.8% | 24.8% | |||
| 38.8% | — | — | — | — | — | 13.3% | 13.1% | — | — | 6.7% | 3.5% | 0.8% | — | — | 23.9% | 25.5% | |||
| Genial/Quaest[4] | 2–6 May 2024 | 2,045 | 46% | — | 40% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 14% | 6% |
| Paraná Pesquisas[5] | 27 Apr–1 May 2024 | 2,020 | 36% | — | — | 38.8% | — | — | 8.4% | — | — | — | — | 3.4% | 1.0% | — | — | 12.3% | 2.8% |
| 36.6% | — | — | — | — | 33% | 10.1% | — | — | — | — | 3.8% | 1.4% | — | — | 15.0% | 3.6% | |||
| 36.9% | — | 25.6% | — | — | — | 11.8% | — | — | — | — | 3.8% | 1.3% | — | — | 20.7% | 11.3% | |||
| 37.2% | — | — | — | — | — | 14.7% | — | — | — | 10.9% | 5.6% | 1.7% | — | — | 29.8% | 22.5% | |||
| 36.9% | — | — | — | — | — | 15.2% | — | — | — | — | 6.5% | 1.9% | — | 15.2% | 31.0% | 21.7% | |||
| 36.3% | — | — | — | — | — | 13.8% | — | 17.6% | — | — | 4.9% | 1.6% | — | — | 25.9% | 18.7% | |||
| 37.2% | — | — | — | — | — | 14.8% | 14.9% | — | — | — | 5.1% | 1.8% | — | — | 26.3% | 22.3% | |||
| Paraná Pesquisas[6] | 24–28 Jan 2024 | 2,026 | 37.6% | — | — | — | — | 23% | 9.3% | 6.5% | 5.1% | — | 1.9% | — | 0.9% | — | — | 15.6% | 14.6% |
| 37.4% | — | 17.4% | — | — | — | 10.3% | 5.8% | 6.2% | — | 2.1% | — | 1.1% | — | — | 19.6% | 20% | |||
| 36.9% | — | — | 33.8% | — | — | 7.8% | 3.9% | 3.9% | — | 1.2% | — | 0.8% | — | — | 11.7% | 3.1% | |||
| Paraná Pesquisas[7] | 29 Sep – 3 Oct 2023 | 2,020 | 36.6% | — | 12.7% | — | — | — | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 1.2% | 2.1% | — | 7.4% | 1.9% | 14.9% | 23.9% |
| 37.6% | — | 18.9% | — | — | — | 8.7% | — | — | — | — | 3.7% | — | 9.0% | — | 22.2% | 18.7% | |||
| 37.6% | — | — | — | — | — | 8.8% | 15.3% | — | — | — | 4.0% | — | 8.8% | — | 25.5% | 22.3% | |||
| 37.7% | — | — | — | — | — | 9.2% | — | 12.8% | — | — | 4.1% | — | 8.7% | — | 27.4% | 24.9% |
Second round
[edit]| Publisher/Pollster | Polling period |
Sample size |
Lula PT |
Freitas Republicanos |
J. Bolsonaro[b] PL |
Marçal PRTB |
Caiado UNIÃO |
Blank/Null/ Undec. |
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genial/Quaest[8] | 4–9 Dec 2024 | 8,598 | 51% | — | 35% | — | — | 14% | 16% |
| 52% | 26% | — | — | — | 22% | 26% | |||
| 52% | — | — | 27% | — | 22% | 25% | |||
| 54% | — | — | — | 20% | 26% | 34% |
See also
[edit]Notes
[edit]References
[edit]- ^ "O desempenho de Bolsonaro, Michelle, Tarcísio, Ratinho e Zema em eventuais disputas contra Lula em 2026". CartaCapital (in Brazilian Portuguese). 27 November 2024. Retrieved 4 December 2024.
- ^ "Pesquisa testa cenários com Lula, Marçal, Tarcísio, Bolsonaro e Michelle para 2026; veja os números". CartaCapital (in Brazilian Portuguese). 12 November 2024. Retrieved 14 November 2024.
- ^ Aguiar, Victor. "Pesquisa simula eleição com Lula contra Bolsonaro, Michelle e Tarcísio; veja cenários". CNN Brasil (in Brazilian Portuguese). Retrieved 30 July 2024.
- ^ "Poll 02–06 May 2024" (PDF).
- ^ "Lula venceria Tarcísio, mas casal Bolsonaro mantém força para 2026". Poder360 (in Brazilian Portuguese). 24 May 2024. Retrieved 24 May 2024.
- ^ "Pesquisa de Opinião Pública Nacional - Janeiro de 2024" (PDF). Paraná Pesquisas (in Brazilian Portuguese). 9 February 2024. Retrieved 15 February 2024.
- ^ "Pesquisa: Lula lidera com folga, e Tarcísio é nome mais forte da oposição". Veja (in Brazilian Portuguese). 13 October 2023. Retrieved 14 October 2023.
- ^ "Genial/Quaest: Lula vence todos os cenários em 2026; Haddad é favorito pra substituí-lo". UOL (in Brazilian Portuguese). 27 November 2024. Retrieved 12 December 2024.
| Presidential elections | |
|---|---|
| Parliamentary elections | |
| Gubernatorial elections | |
| State elections | |
| Municipal elections | |
| Regency elections | |
| Referendums | |
