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Hurricane Oscar (2024)

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Hurricane Oscar
Oscar north of Hispaniola near peak intensity on October 19
Meteorological history
FormedOctober 19, 2024
DissipatedOctober 22, 2024
Category 1 hurricane
1-minute sustained (SSHWS/NWS)
Highest winds85 mph (140 km/h)
Lowest pressure986 mbar (hPa); 29.12 inHg
Overall effects
Fatalities8
Damage>$10 million (2024 USD)
Areas affected
Part of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season

Hurricane Oscar was a compact tropical cyclone, with the smallest hurricane-force wind field on record in the Atlantic, which caused moderate damage in eastern Cuba in late October 2024.[1] The fifteenth named storm and tenth hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, Oscar originated from a very long-lived tropical wave which moved off of the west coast of Africa on October 10. It did not undergo tropical cyclogenesis until October 19, due to adverse atmospheric conditions. On that same day, the compact storm had a round of rapid intensification and became a Category 1 hurricane. After peaking in wind intensity, Oscar remained steady in intensity as it moved slowly towards Cuba, making landfall late on October 20 with slightly weaker winds but at peak pressure intensity. Land interaction severely disrupted the small storm, and Oscar emerged north of Cuba as a minimal tropical storm with a poorly-defined center. Unfavorable conditions continued to hamper the small storm, and Oscar later dissipated on October 22 after opening into a trough.

Due to the rapid development of Oscar, preparations were sudden across the Greater Antilles. Hurricane watches and warnings were issued across the Turks and Caicos Islands, Southeastern Bahamas, and Cuba on October 19. Seven people were confirmed to have died as a result of Oscar, all in Cuba, which was amplified by a severe national power outage. Preliminary damage estimates are in the “tens of millions.”[2]

Meteorological history

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Map plotting the storm's track and intensity, according to the Saffir–Simpson scale
Map key
Saffir–Simpson scale
  Tropical depression (≤38 mph, ≤62 km/h)
  Tropical storm (39–73 mph, 63–118 km/h)
  Category 1 (74–95 mph, 119–153 km/h)
  Category 2 (96–110 mph, 154–177 km/h)
  Category 3 (111–129 mph, 178–208 km/h)
  Category 4 (130–156 mph, 209–251 km/h)
  Category 5 (≥157 mph, ≥252 km/h)
  Unknown
Storm type
triangle Extratropical cyclone, remnant low, tropical disturbance, or monsoon depression

As early as October 4, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) noted the potential for tropical cyclone formation from a tropical wave, which exited the west coast of Africa six days later.[3][4] That day, the NHC designated the wave as Invest 94L, related to a low pressure area with disorganized convection, or thunderstorms.[5] Moving westward, the system became better organized as it moved through the Cape Verde islands, developing gale-force winds and an elongated circulation. The NHC assessed the potential for development as high as 50%, but downgraded the potential on October 12 due to unfavorable environmental conditions.[6][7] For several days, the low continued westward across the Atlantic Ocean, producing only occasional thunderstorms due to dry air, and it opened up into a trough on October 16.[8] Two days later, the NHC assessed only a 10% chance for development, due to anticipated unfavorable conditions. At that time, the system was passing north of the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico.[9] However, the thunderstorms became better organized,[10] rapidly consolidated north of Hispaniola,[11] and a circulation reformed on October 19.[12] At 15:00 UTC that day, the NHC classified the system as Tropical Storm Oscar while located just east of the Turks and Caicos islands.[13]

Upon its designation by the NHC, Oscar had a small central dense overcast fueled by hot towers, surrounded by well-defined rainbands. The storm moved westward, steered by a ridge to its north.[13] At 18:00 UTC on October 19, the NHC upgraded Oscar to hurricane intensity, just three hours after beginning advisories. This was based on observations from the Hurricane Hunters, which observed a very small well-defined eye with a diameter of only 3.45 mi (5.55 km).[14] A dropsonde into the eye observed wind gusts of 94 mph (152 km/h). On that basis, the NHC estimated peak winds of 85 mph (140 km/h). At its peak, Oscar had hurricane-force winds extending only 5.75 mi (9.25 km) from the center, and gale-force winds 35 mi (55 km) from the center.[15] At this point, Oscar was a very small storm with traits similar to thunderstorm clusters.[16] Early on October 20, the center of Oscar passed very near Grand Turk Island, before making landfall on Inagua.[17] During the turning operation towards Cuba, the eye expanded to a diameter of around 20 mi (32 km), as Oscar's track shifted towards the west-southwest and reached its lowest pressure of 986 mbar.[18][19] At 21:50 UTC on October 20, Oscar made a second landfall in eastern Cuba, near the city of Baracoa.[20]

After moving ashore eastern Cuba, Oscar quickly weakened into a tropical storm.[21] The circulation became disrupted over the mountainous terrain as its forward motion slowed.[22] A trough over the western Atlantic pulled Oscar northward, and the circulation emerged over water early on October 22. The storm was unable to regenerate due to stronger wind shear and dry air, and later that day Oscar dissipated near the Bahamas.[23] The remnants were then absorbed by a nearby extratropical cyclone, which then travelled northwards towards the Nova Scotia Peninsula, and made landfall on October 25 on the south coast of the peninsula and Newfoundland, with rainfall reaching up to 125 mm (4.9 in) predicted across some parts of Newfoundland.[24]

Forecast errors and distinctions

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Philippe Papin of the NHC noted that Oscar "...kind of snuck up a little bit on us".[25] As the predecessor to Oscar made its way north of the Greater Antilles, models began to stop showing tropical development in their forecasts.[26]

Oscar was the smallest hurricane on record with a five-to-six-mile (8.0 to 9.7 km) wide hurricane-force wind field.[1] Due to Oscar's size, most satellites were unable to accurately measure its actual strength.[26] RADARSAT, a high-resolution Canadian satellites, showed that Oscar peaked around Category 2 or 3 strength prior to landfall.[26]

Preparations and impacts

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Lucayan Archipelago

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Hurricane Oscar moving onshore near Baracoa, Cuba on October 20, 2024 at peak pressure intensity.

On the afternoon of October 19, the Government of The Bahamas issued a hurricane warning for the Turks and Caicos Islands and Southeastern Bahamas.[27] The Turks and Caicos Islands Airport Authority closed JAGS McCartney International Airport, Norman B. Saunders International Airport, and Leon Wilson Airport.[28] The Bahamian Disaster Risk Management (DRM) Authority activated its team on October 19.[29]

Matthew Town experienced winds from the core of Oscar.[16] On Grand Turk, where the capital of the Turks and Caicos Islands is located, Oscar knocked down some trees and removed the roofs of at least one house. However, as there was a low tide, the hurricane caused minimal impacts in the islands.[30] A shelter in Inagua housed 24 people.[31]

The DRM Authority sent food items to the southern islands after Oscar had left.[32]

Cuba

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The Government of Cuba issued a hurricane watch for the provinces of Guantánamo, Holguín, and Las Tunas on October 19.[27] Dissemination of information related to Oscar was impeded by a country-wide blackout.[33] More than 15,000 people were evacuated in the nation, with 9,000 being evacuated in Imías and 6,000 evacuated in San Antonio del Sur.[34][35]

As Oscar neared Cuba, a station in Cape Maisí saw a peak gust of 103 km/h (64 mph).[36] Torrential downpours were recorded in Cuba, with preliminary reports in the province of Guantánamo stating that some places received more than 10 in (25 cm).[22] A station in Maisí saw 366 mm (14.4 in) or rainfall, while in Baracoa, 268 mm (10.6 in) was seen.[34] In Baracoa, waves produced by the hurricane breached the seawall, causing flooding along the city's coastline.[37] Oscar caused severe damage in eastern Guantánamo.[38] At least 2,282 homes were damaged, more than half of them with total roof collapses.[39] Severe flooding occurred in Baracoa, Imías, and Maisí. Dozens homes lost their roofs and many power lines were downed.[40][41] The rainfall and winds led to landslides, which also slowed the fixing of the blackout.[42] In the Caujerí Valley, 200 hectares (2.0 km2) of tomatoes were destroyed.[43] 6,500 cans of coffee grains, along with numerous amounts of bananas and beans, were lost. The Cadena River was flooded.[44] The Pozo Azul Dam reached 86% capacity while the Los Asientos Dam met capacity.[45] The former saw false rumors spread online about a possible collapse. The Cuban Army denounced the rumors.[45] Salt flats owned by the Salinera Company received serious damage from Oscar.[43] Eight people were killed from the storm:[46] six in San Antonio and one in Imías.[47][48] Preliminary estimates for the damages caused by Oscar and Hurricane Rafael are at 383 million Cuban Pesos (USD$16 million).[49]

A ship was sent from Pajaritos, Veracruz, to Cuba, with 400,000 barrels of oil to alleviate the power crisis worsened by Oscar.[50]

Still recovering from Oscar, eastern Cuba was rattled by a 6.8-magnitude earthquake on November 10.[51]

Elsewhere

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The remnants of Oscar increased surf in the Northeastern United States.[52]

As the remnants of Oscar were forecasted to approach Ireland, Met Éireann issued weather warnings.[53]

See also

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References

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  1. ^ a b Rice, Doyle. "How Hurricane Oscar fooled forecasters, became smallest on record". USA TODAY. Retrieved October 22, 2024.
  2. ^ Čejka, Tomáš; Elizondo, Antonio; Hotový, Ondřej; Lörinc, Michal (October 25, 2024). "Weekly Cat Report October 25, 2024" (PDF). aonunited.com. Retrieved October 29, 2024.
  3. ^ John Cangialosi; Lisa Bucci (October 4, 2024). "Tropical Weather Outlook" (TXT). National Hurricane Center. Retrieved October 22, 2024.
  4. ^ Andrew Hagen (October 10, 2024). "Tropical Weather Outlook" (TXT). National Hurricane Center. Retrieved October 22, 2024.
  5. ^ Jack Beven (October 10, 2024). "Tropical Weather Outlook" (TXT). National Hurricane Center. Retrieved October 22, 2024.
  6. ^ Robbie Berg (October 11, 2024). "Tropical Weather Outlook" (TXT). National Hurricane Center. Retrieved October 22, 2024.
  7. ^ Robbie Berg (October 12, 2024). "Tropical Weather Outlook" (TXT). National Hurricane Center. Retrieved October 22, 2024.
  8. ^ Jack Beven (October 15, 2024). "Tropical Weather Outlook" (TXT). National Hurricane Center. Retrieved October 22, 2024.
  9. ^ Andrew Hagen (October 18, 2024). "Tropical Weather Outlook" (TXT). National Hurricane Center. Retrieved October 22, 2024.
  10. ^ Andrew Hagen (October 18, 2024). "Tropical Weather Outlook" (TXT). National Hurricane Center. Retrieved October 22, 2024.
  11. ^ Papin, Philippe (October 19, 2024). "NHC Graphical Outlook Archive". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved October 19, 2024.
  12. ^ Philippe Papin; John Cangialosi (October 19, 2024). "Tropical Weather Outlook" (TXT). National Hurricane Center. Retrieved October 22, 2024.
  13. ^ a b Philippe Papin (October 19, 2024). Tropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number 1 (Report). National Hurricane Center. Retrieved October 22, 2024.
  14. ^ Philippe Papin; John Cangialosi (October 19, 2024). Hurricane Oscar Special Discussion Number 2 (Report). National Hurricane Center. Retrieved October 22, 2024.
  15. ^ Philippe Papin (October 19, 2024). Hurricane Oscar Discussion Number 3 (Report). National Hurricane Center. Retrieved October 22, 2024.
  16. ^ a b Norcross, Bryan (October 20, 2024). "Bryan Norcross: Hurricane Oscar is moving through the southeastern Bahamas on its way to Cuba". FOX Weather. Retrieved October 20, 2024.
  17. ^ Brad Reinhart (October 20, 2024). Hurricane Oscar Discussion Number 4 (Report). National Hurricane Center. Retrieved October 22, 2024.
  18. ^ Philippe Papin (October 20, 2024). Hurricane Oscar Discussion Number 6 (Report). National Hurricane Center. Retrieved October 22, 2024.
  19. ^ Philippe Papin (October 20, 2024). Hurricane Oscar Advisory Number 6 (Report). National Hurricane Center. Retrieved October 25, 2024.
  20. ^ Lisa Bucci; Brad Reinhart; Philippe Papin (October 20, 2024). "Hurricane Oscar Tropical Cyclone Update". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved October 22, 2024.
  21. ^ Brad Reinhart (October 21, 2024). Tropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number 8 (Report). National Hurricane Center. Retrieved October 22, 2024.
  22. ^ a b Richard Pasch; Sandy Delgado (October 21, 2024). Tropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number 10 (Report). National Hurricane Center. Retrieved October 22, 2024.
  23. ^ Bard Reinhart (October 22, 2024). Tropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number 12 (Report). National Hurricane Center. Retrieved October 22, 2024.
  24. ^ "Oscar remnants arrive in Atlantic Canada, raising outage and flooding risk". The Weather Network. October 25, 2024. Retrieved October 26, 2024.
  25. ^ "Oscar weakens to a tropical storm after making landfall as Category 1 hurricane". Shropshire Star. October 21, 2024. Retrieved October 22, 2024.
  26. ^ a b c Lowry, Michael (October 21, 2024). "October surprise: Oscar rapidly forms, stuns forecasters over the weekend". WPLG. Retrieved October 22, 2024.
  27. ^ a b Henkels, Patrick (October 19, 2024). "Oscar strengthens into Category 1 hurricane near the Bahamas". wtsp.com. Retrieved October 19, 2024.
  28. ^ "Turks and Caicos close major airports as Hurricane Oscar approaches". Loop News. October 19, 2024. Retrieved October 19, 2024.
  29. ^ "DRM Authority advises residents in the Southeast Bahamas to 'prepare for impact'". Eye Witness News. October 19, 2024. Retrieved October 19, 2024.
  30. ^ Neal, David J.; Malaver, Milena; Cetoute, Devoun (October 20, 2024). "Advertencia de huracán para Cuba y las Bahamas tras impacto de Oscar en islas Turks y Caicos" (in Spanish). El Nuevo Herald. Miami Herald. Retrieved October 21, 2024.
  31. ^ McDermott, Berthony (October 21, 2024). "Southern Islanders Not Taking Storm Threat Lightly". Our News. Retrieved October 21, 2024.
  32. ^ "DRM Authority and Supervalue team up to send relief supplies to the Southern Islands". Eye Witness News. October 21, 2024. Retrieved October 21, 2024.
  33. ^ "Oscar becomes a hurricane and is advancing toward Cuba". CiberCuba. October 19, 2024. Retrieved October 19, 2024.
  34. ^ a b "Tropical storm Oscar moves away from Cuba: Leaves destruction, deaths, and missing persons". CiberCuba. October 22, 2024. Retrieved October 22, 2024.
  35. ^ Gamez Torres, Nora. "5-year-old child is among the six dead left by Hurricane Oscar in Cuba amid power outage". Miami Herald. Retrieved October 22, 2024.
  36. ^ "Punta Maisí station reports a gust of 103 km/h due to the proximity of Hurricane Oscar to the east of Cuba". CiberCuba. October 20, 2024. Retrieved October 21, 2024.
  37. ^ "Hurricane Oscar causes the first floods on the boardwalk of Baracoa". CiberCuba. October 20, 2024. Retrieved October 21, 2024.
  38. ^ "Hurricane Oscar leaves six dead in Cuba during power blackout". France 24. October 22, 2024. Retrieved October 22, 2024.
  39. ^ "Response to Hurricane Oscar - Situation Report No. 02 from the Resident Coordinator's Office (October 22, 2024) - Cuba | ReliefWeb". ReliefWeb. October 24, 2024. Retrieved October 24, 2024.
  40. ^ "More than a thousand homes damaged in Guantánamo due to the passage of Hurricane Oscar, according to the government". CiberCuba. October 21, 2024. Retrieved October 22, 2024.
  41. ^ Augustin, Ed; Robles, Frances (October 21, 2024). "A Nationwide Blackout, Now a Hurricane. How Much Can Cuba Endure?". The New York Times. Archived from the original on November 10, 2024. Retrieved October 23, 2024.
  42. ^ Nicoll, Ruaridh (October 21, 2024). "Hurricane Oscar dumps heavy rain across Cuba amid power outage". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved October 22, 2024.
  43. ^ a b "Tropical storm Oscar causes severe damage in the salt flats of Guantánamo". CiberCuba. October 22, 2024. Retrieved October 22, 2024.
  44. ^ Martinez, Dianelbis Delfino; Balart Martinez, Liubis (October 21, 2024). "Major damages of Oscar to agriculture in the Yateras Municipality – Radio Guantanamo". radioguantanamo.icrt.cu. Retrieved October 23, 2024.
  45. ^ a b Aguilar, Hannah (October 26, 2024). "Cuban Government Claims Guantánamo Dam Remained Intact During Hurricane Oscar". CubaHeadlines. Archived from the original on November 6, 2024. Retrieved October 26, 2024.
  46. ^ "Cuba braces for Hurricane Rafael amid fallout from blackout and storm last month". The Guardian. Agence France-Presse. November 6, 2024. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved November 6, 2024.
  47. ^ Buschschlüter, Vanessa (October 22, 2024). "Hurricane Oscar leaves at least six dead in Cuba". BBC. Retrieved October 22, 2024.
  48. ^ "Ascienden a siete los fallecidos en Guantánamo tras el paso del huracán Oscar" [The number of deceased in Guantánamo rises to seven following the passage of Hurricane Oscar.]. CiberCuba (in Spanish). October 22, 2024. Retrieved October 22, 2024.
  49. ^ "Cuban authorities update the amount of damage caused by recent natural disasters - Prensa Latina". November 14, 2024. Retrieved November 24, 2024.
  50. ^ "A vessel carrying about 400,000 barrels of oil is heading to Cuba from Mexico". CiberCuba. October 28, 2024. Retrieved October 29, 2024.
  51. ^ Rodriguez, Andrea. "Cuba shaken by 6.8-magnitude earthquake after enduring hurricanes and blackouts". Associated Press. Archived from the original on November 11, 2024. Retrieved November 12, 2024.
  52. ^ "Remnants of Hurricane Oscar Send Surf to Northeast". Surfline. October 24, 2024. Archived from the original on November 17, 2024. Retrieved October 25, 2024.
  53. ^ McSorley, Anita (October 26, 2024). "Ireland weather warning issued as Hurricane Oscar's tail triggers 8-hour alert". Irish Mirror. Archived from the original on November 28, 2024. Retrieved October 26, 2024.
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