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Summary

This file has been superseded by Temperature reconstruction last two millennia.svg. It is recommended to use the other file. Please note that deleting superseded images requires consent.

Reason to use the other file: "The old reconstructions were based on limited data, which was biased towards the Northern Hemisphere. The new file is also svg, and translatable"
 new file
Expansion of the last 1000 years
Temperature variations during the preceding 12000 years.
English: This image is a comparison of 11 different published reconstructions of changes during the last 2000 years. More recent reconstructions are plotted towards the front and in redder colors, older reconstructions appear towards the back and in bluer colors. An instrumental history of temperature is also shown in black. The medieval warm period and little ice age are labeled at roughly the times for which they have been postulated, though it is under dispute whether these should be considered global or merely regional events.

The single, unsmoothed annual value for 2016 is also shown for comparison. (Image:Instrumental Temperature Record.png shows how 2004 relates to other recent years).

For the purposes of this comparison, the author is agnostic as to which, if any, of the reconstructions of global mean temperature is an accurate reflection of temperature fluctuations during the last 2000 years. However, since this plot is a fair representation of the range of reconstructions appearing in the published scientific literature, it is likely that such reconstructions, accurate or not, will play a significant role in the ongoing discussions of global climate change and global warming.

For each reconstruction, the raw data has been decadally smoothed with a σ = 5 yr Gaussian weighted moving average. Also, each reconstruction was adjusted so that its mean matched the mean of the instrumental record during the period of overlap. The variance (i.e. the scale of fluctuations) was not adjusted (except in one case noted below).

Except as noted below, all original data for this comparison comes from [1] and links therein. It should also be noted that scientific challenges to methodology and data used in several of the references have been substantiated and reconstructions of past climate report substantial error bars, which are not represented on this figure.


Français : Cette image est une comparaison de 11 différentes reconstructions des variations de températures moyennes des 2000 dernières années. Les reconstructions plus récentes sont tracées dans des couleurs plus rouges, les reconstructions plus anciennes apparaissent dans des couleurs plus bleues. Une histoire des relevés instrumentaux de la température est également représentée en noir. Les périodes de l'Optimum climatique médiéval et du Petit Âge glaciaire sont portées aux époques pour lesquelles elles ont été postulées, bien qu'il soit encore débattu si elles doivent être considérées comme des événements mondiaux ou simplement régionaux. La valeur annuelle unique non lissée pour 2016 est également présentée à titre de comparaison. Aux fins de cette comparaison, Ce graphique est une représentation fidèle de l'éventail des reconstructions apparaissant dans la littérature scientifique publiée, il est probable que de telles reconstructions, précises ou non, joueront un rôle important dans les discussions en cours sur le changement climatique mondial et le réchauffement climatique.

Pour chaque reconstruction, les données brutes ont été lissées de façon décennale avec une moyenne mobile pondérée gaussienne (σ = 5 ans). De plus, chaque reconstruction a été ajustée afin que sa moyenne corresponde à la moyenne de l'enregistrement instrumental pendant la période de chevauchement. La variance (c'est-à-dire l'échelle des fluctuations) n'a pas été ajustée (sauf dans un cas indiqué ci-dessous).

À l'exception de ce qui est indiqué ci-dessous, toutes les données originales pour cette comparaison proviennent de [2] et des liens qui s'y trouvent. Il convient également de noter que les défis scientifiques de la méthodologie et des données utilisées dans plusieurs des références ont été corroborés et que les reconstructions du passé sur le climat font état de barres d'erreur substantielles, qui ne sont pas représentées sur cette figure.


한국어: 이 이미지는 지난 2000년 동안 11개의 서로 다른 게시된 변경사항 재구성을 비교한 것이다. 더 최근의 재구성은 앞쪽으로, 더 빨간 색으로, 오래된 재구성은 뒷쪽으로, 더 푸른색으로 나타냅니다. 온도에 대한 계기 이력은 또한 검은색으로 표시됩니다. 중세의 따뜻한 시기와 빙하기의 적은 시기는 대략 그들이 상정되었던 시기에 분류되어 있지만, 비록 그것들이 세계적인 사건인지 아니면 단지 지역적인 사건들로 간주되어야만 하는지는 논란이 되고 있다.

2016년의 평활하지 않은 단일 연간 값도 비교를 위해 표시됩니다(이미지:Instrument Temperature Record.png는 2004년과 다른 최근 해의 관계를 보여줍니다.)

이 비교의 목적을 위해 저자는 지구 평균 온도의 재구성이 지난 2000년 동안의 온도 변동을 정확하게 반영하는지에 대해 논증하지 않는다. 그러나 이 플롯은 발표된 과학 문헌에 나타난 재구성 범위를 공정하게 나타낸 것이므로, 정확하든 그렇지 않든 이러한 재구성은 지구 기후 변화와 지구 온난화에 대한 지속적인 논의에서 중요한 역할을 할 가능성이 높다.

각 재구성에서 원시 데이터는 β = 5yr 가우스 가중 이동 평균으로 십진법적으로 평활되었다. 또한 각 재구성은 겹치는 기간 동안 평균이 계측기 레코드의 평균과 일치하도록 조정되었다. 분산(즉, 변동 척도)은 조정되지 않았습니다(아래에 명시된 한 가지 경우를 제외).

아래에 명시된 경우를 제외하고, 이 비교를 위한 모든 원본 데이터는 [1]에서 가져온 것이며 여기에 있는 링크입니다. 또한 여러 참조에서 사용된 방법론과 데이터에 대한 과학적 과제가 입증되었으며 과거 기후의 재구성은 이 수치에는 나타나지 않는 상당한 오류 막대를 보고한다는 점에 유의해야 한다.

Reconstructions

The reconstructions used, in order from oldest to most recent publication are:

  • (dark blue 1000–1991): P.D. Jones, K.R. Briffa, T.P. Barnett, and S.F.B. Tett (1998). "High-resolution Palaeoclimatic Records for the last Millennium: Interpretation, Integration and Comparison with General Circulation Model Control-run Temperatures". The Holocene 8: 455–471. doi:10.1191/095968398667194956
  • (blue 1000–1980): M.E. Mann, R.S. Bradley, and M.K. Hughes (1999). "Northern Hemisphere Temperatures During the Past Millennium: Inferences, Uncertainties, and Limitations". Geophysical Research Letters 26 (6): 759–762.
  • (light blue 1000–1965): Crowley and Lowery (2000). "Northern Hemisphere Temperature Reconstruction". Ambio 29: 51-54. Modified as published in Crowley (2000). "Causes of Climate Change Over the Past 1000 Years". Science 289: 270–277. doi:10.1126/science.289.5477.270
  • (lightest blue 1402–1960): K.R. Briffa, T.J. Osborn, F.H. Schweingruber, I.C. Harris, P.D. Jones, S.G. Shiyatov, S.G. and E.A. Vaganov (2001). "Low-frequency temperature variations from a northern tree-ring density network". J. Geophys. Res. 106: 2929–2941.
  • (light turquoise 831–1992): J. Esper, E.R. Cook, and F.H. Schweingruber (2002). "Low-Frequency Signals in Long Tree-Ring Chronologies for Reconstructing Past Temperature Variability". Science 295 (5563): 2250–2253. doi:10.1126/science.1066208.
  • (green 200–1980): M.E. Mann and P.D. Jones (2003). "Global Surface Temperatures over the Past Two Millennia". Geophysical Research Letters 30 (15): 1820. doi:10.1029/2003GL017814.
  • (yellow 200–1995): P.D. Jones and M.E. Mann (2004). "Climate Over Past Millennia". Reviews of Geophysics 42: RG2002. doi:10.1029/2003RG000143
  • (orange 1500–1980): S. Huang (2004). "Merging Information from Different Resources for New Insights into Climate Change in the Past and Future". Geophys. Res Lett. 31: L13205. doi:10.1029/2004GL019781
  • (red 1–1979): A. Moberg, D.M. Sonechkin, K. Holmgren, N.M. Datsenko and W. Karlén (2005). "Highly variable Northern Hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low- and high-resolution proxy data". Nature 443: 613–617. doi:10.1038/nature03265
  • (dark red 1600–1990): J.H. Oerlemans (2005). "Extracting a Climate Signal from 169 Glacier Records". Science 308: 675–677. doi:10.1126/science.1107046

The original version of this figure was prepared by Robert A. Rohde from publicly available data, and is incorporated into the Global Warming Art project.

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Notes

  1. Data from Moberg et al. was taken directly from the supplemental information accompanying the Nature article.
  2. Data for Oerlemans was provided by William M. Connolley.
  3. Esper et al. reported only fluctuations in "arbitrary" units, so the variance in this record was rescaled to match the variance during the period of overlap with the instrumental record.
  4. When a paper included multiple reconstructions, the global annually average temperature data was used. If this was not reported, then Northern Hemisphere annually averaged data was used.
  5. Four records appearing at [4] were not used in preparing this graph for the following reasons:
    1. Mann et al. 98 was not included because Mann et al. 99 extended and updated that record.
    2. Briffa et al. 98 was not included because Briffa et al. 2001 extended and updated that record.
    3. Pollack et al. 98 was not included because the reported data was not found to be in a form that allowed for easy replotting.
    4. Mann et al. 2000 was not used because it did not include an original reconstruction covering at least the Northern Hemisphere.

External references


Dragons flight's Temperature Record Series
This figure is part of a series of plots created by Dragons flight to illustrate
changes in Earth's temperature and climate across many different time scales.
Time Period: 25 yrs | 150 yrs | 1 kyr | 2 kyr | 12 kyr | 450 kyr | 5 Myr | 65 Myr | 500 Myr
For articles related to this topic see: Temperature record

derivative works

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Captions

Reconstructed temperature charts for the last 2000 years, several sources combined (most recent in red) with contemporary measurements.

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295e8c9aa08a4732fe460a00b2430dbf06d33a16

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Date/TimeThumbnailDimensionsUserComment
current09:58, 14 March 2019Thumbnail for version as of 09:58, 14 March 20191,449 × 1,088 (341 KB)Dragons flightCorrection. The Esper et al. curve was not included correctly in the previous update.
19:07, 27 May 2018Thumbnail for version as of 19:07, 27 May 20181,449 × 1,088 (316 KB)Dragons flightSame material but the instrumental time series is continued to 2016.
22:51, 17 December 2005Thumbnail for version as of 22:51, 17 December 2005600 × 443 (39 KB)Saperaud~commonswiki*'''Description:''' [[en:Image:{{subst:PAGENAME}}]]

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