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2024 United States presidential election in New York

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Main article: 2024 United States presidential election
2024 United States presidential election in New York
← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 ⊟
 
Nominee Kamala Harris Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Alliance Working Families Conservative
Home state California Florida
Running mate Tim Walz JD Vance
Incumbent President

Joe Biden
Democratic



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The 2024 United States presidential election in New York is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. New York voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of New York has 28 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state lost a seat.[1]

A heavily-populated Northeastern state, New York has voted Democratic in every election since 1988, and has done so by at least 15% since 1992. A strongly blue state at the federal level, Democratic strength in the Empire State is mainly focused on New York City (the most populous city in the country) and its metropolitan area, followed by Greater Buffalo and the Capital Region.

Polling has indicated a potentially closer race in New York in 2024 than in 2016 or 2020, but Democrats still consistently lead by margins well outside the margin of error.[2][3] As such, New York is considered by all major news outlets to be safely won by Democrat Kamala Harris in 2024.

Primary elections

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Democratic primary

[edit]
Main article: 2024 New York Democratic presidential primary

The 2024 New York Democratic presidential primary was held on April 2, 2024, alongside primaries in Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Wisconsin.

New York Democratic primary, April 2, 2024[4]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Pledged Unpledged Total
Joe Biden (incumbent) 288,138 80.7% 268 268
Marianne Williamson 15,573 4.4%
Dean Phillips (withdrawn) 11,309 3.2%
Blank ballots 41,113 11.5%
Void ballots 903 0.3%
Total: 357,036 100.0% 268 38 306

Primary polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden 		Different
Candidate 		Undecided
Siena College[5] Sep 10–13, 2023 804 (RV) ± 4.3% 54% 40% 6%
Siena College[6] Aug 13–16, 2023 803 (RV) ± 4.4% 47% 46% 7%
Siena College[7] Jun 20–25, 2023 817 (RV) ± 3.9% 54% 40% 6%
Siena College[8] May 7–11, 2023 810 (RV) ± 4.1% 56% 40% 4%
Siena College[9] Mar 19–22, 2023 802 (RV) ± 4.6% 43% 51% 7%

Republican primary

[edit]
Main article: 2024 New York Republican presidential primary

The New York Republican primary was held on April 2, 2024, alongside the Connecticut primary.

New York Republican primary, April 2, 2024[10]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 132,698 81.2% 91 91
Nikki Haley (withdrawn) 21,145 12.9%
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 6,679 4.1%
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) 1,667 1.0%
Blank or void ballots 1,311 0.8%
Total: 163,500 100.0% 91 91

General election

[edit]

Only two candidates will be appearing on the ballot in New York: Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Harris will be under the Democratic and Working Families Party ticket while Trump will be running on the Republican and the New York Conservative Party ticket.[11] Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will not be appearing on the ballot in New York[12] after Judge Christina Ryba of the 3rd New York Judicial District[13] ruled that he had listed his place of residence as being in Katonah, New York to be false and that he actually lived in Los Angeles.[14]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[15] Solid D December 19, 2023
Inside Elections[16] Solid D April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[17] Safe D June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[18] Safe D December 14, 2023
CNalysis[19] Solid D December 30, 2023
CNN[20] Solid D January 14, 2024
The Economist[21] Safe D June 12, 2024
538[22] Solid D August 23, 2024
RCP[23] Solid D June 26, 2024

Polling

[edit]

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
ActiVote[24] September 4–30, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 61% 39% –
Emerson College[25][A] September 23–25, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 54% 40% 6%[b]
Siena College[26] September 11–16, 2024 1,003 (LV) ± 4.3% 55% 42% 3%
August 23, 2024 Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump.
August 22, 2024 Democratic National Convention concludes
ActiVote[27] August 1–21, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 58% 42% –
August 19, 2024 Democratic National Convention begins
August 6, 2024 Kamala Harris selects Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate.
Siena College[28] July 28 – August 1, 2024 1,199 (LV) ± 4.0% 53% 39% 8%
July 21, 2024 Joe Biden announces his official withdrawal from the race; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president.
SoCal Strategies (R)[29][B] July 18–19, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 52% 41% 7%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian 		Other /
Undecided
Siena College[26] September 11–16, 2024 1,003 (LV) ± 4.3% 52% 40% 1% 2% 0% 5%
Hypothetical polling with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian 		Other /
Undecided
Siena College[28] July 28 – August 1, 2024 1,199 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 37% 7% 1% 2% 1% 10%
Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
SoCal Strategies (R)[29][B] July 18–19, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 52% 41% 7%
Siena College[30] June 12–13 & 16–17, 2024 805 (RV) ± 4.1% 47% 39% 14%
Emerson College[31][C] May 28–29, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 48% 41% 11%
55%[c] 45% –
Siena College[32] May 13–15, 2024 1,191 (RV) ± 3.9% 47% 38% 15%
Slingshot Strategies (D)[33] May 2–3, 2024 1,059 (RV) ± 5.0% 56% 37% 17%
John Zogby Strategies[34][D] April 13–21, 2024 749 (LV) – 48% 42% 10%
Siena College[35] April 15–17, 2024 806 (RV) ± 4.1% 47% 37% 16%
Siena College[36] February 12–14, 2024 806 (RV) ± 4.2% 48% 36% 16%
Siena College[37] January 14–17, 2024 807 (RV) ± 4.5% 46% 37% 17%
Siena College[38] November 12–15, 2023 803 (RV) ± 4.6% 46% 36% 18%
Siena College[39] October 15–19, 2023 1,225 (RV) ± 3.4% 46% 37% 17%
Siena College[40] September 10–13, 2023 804 (RV) ± 4.3% 52% 31% 17%
Siena College[6] August 13–16, 2023 803 (RV) ± 4.4% 47% 34% 19%
Siena College[7] June 20–25, 2023 817 (RV) ± 3.9% 50% 28% 21%
SurveyUSA[41][E] November 3–6, 2022 918 (RV) ± 4.1% 46% 34% 20%
Emerson College[42][C] October 20–24, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 40% 13%
SurveyUSA[43][F] October 14–18, 2022 1,018 (RV) ± 4.4% 42% 37% 21%
Emerson College[44] September 4–6, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 53% 37% 10%
SurveyUSA[45][E] August 17–21, 2022 715 (LV) ± 4.6% 49% 29% 22%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[46] August 7–9, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 52% 40% 8%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
Siena College[36] February 12–14, 2024 806 (RV) ± 4.2% 42% 32% 13% 6% 7%
Siena College[37] January 14–17, 2024 807 (RV) ± 4.5% 41% 32% 13% 3% 11%
Siena College[38] November 12–15, 2023 803 (RV) ± 4.6% 37% 28% 18% 5% 11%
Siena College[39] October 15–19, 2023 1,225 (RV) ± 3.4% 38% 31% 13% 5% 12%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Other /
Undecided
Emerson College[31][C] May 28–29, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 44% 38% 6% 2% 1% 9%
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[34][D] April 13–21, 2024 749 (LV) – 44% 44% 12%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[34][D] April 13–21, 2024 749 (LV) – 45% 39% 16%

Results

[edit]
2024 United States presidential election in New York[47]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic
Working Families
Total
Republican
Conservative
Total
Write-in
Total votes

See also

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Notes

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  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
  3. ^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate

Partisan clients

  1. ^ Poll sponsored by WPIX-TV
  2. ^ a b Poll sponsored by On Point Politics
  3. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Nexstar Media Group
  4. ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
  5. ^ a b Poll sponsored by WNYT-TV
  6. ^ Poll sponsored by WHEC-TV & WNYT-TV

References

[edit]
  1. ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
  2. ^ "Now Deep Blue New York Is Turning Into a Battleground State for Biden". Yahoo News. July 10, 2024. Retrieved July 23, 2024.
  3. ^ "Trump Says He Has 'Good Chance' of Winning New York in November". Bloomberg.com. April 25, 2024. Retrieved July 23, 2024.
  4. ^ "Certified 2024 Democratic Presidential Primary Results". New York State Board of Elections. Retrieved May 1, 2024.
  5. ^ "Siena College" (PDF).
  6. ^ a b "Siena College Poll Conducted by the Siena College Research Institute August 13 - 16, 2023" (PDF). Siena College. August 22, 2023.
  7. ^ a b "Siena College Poll Conducted by the Siena College Research Institute June 20 - 25, 2023" (PDF). Siena College. June 28, 2023.
  8. ^ "Siena College" (PDF).
  9. ^ "Siena College" (PDF).
  10. ^ "Certified 2024 Republican Presidential Primary Results". New York State Board of Electiom. Retrieved May 20, 2024.
  11. ^ "The Green Papers: New York 2024 General Election". The Green Papers. Retrieved September 16, 2024.
  12. ^ Yilek, Caitlin; Novelo, Allison (August 23, 2024). "Map shows where RFK Jr. is on the ballot in the 2024 election". CBS News. Retrieved August 24, 2024.
  13. ^ "Albay Supreme & County Court". NYCOURTS.GOV. Retrieved August 24, 2024.
  14. ^ "What to know about the ruling that bounced RFK Jr. from the New York ballot". PBS News. Associated Press. August 14, 2024. Retrieved August 24, 2024.
  15. ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  16. ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  17. ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  18. ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  19. ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  20. ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
  21. ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
  22. ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 23, 2024.
  23. ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
  24. ^ Allis, Victor (October 1, 2024). "Harris has comfortable lead in New York". ActiVote.
  25. ^ Mueller, Julia (September 27, 2024). "Harris holds wide lead over Trump in New York: Poll". The Hill.
  26. ^ a b "Siena College Poll Conducted by the Siena College Research Institute September 11 - 16, 2024" (PDF). Siena College. September 19, 2024.
  27. ^ Allis, Victor (August 21, 2024). "Harris has a Smaller Lead in New York than in Previous Presidential Elections". ActiVote.
  28. ^ a b "Siena College Poll Conducted by the Siena College Research Institute July 28 - August 1, 2024" (PDF). Siena College. September 19, 2024.
  29. ^ a b "On Point Politics/SoCal Research Empire State Survey". Google Docs. July 19, 2024.
  30. ^ "Siena College Poll Conducted by the Siena College Research Institute June 12-13, 16-17, 2024" (PDF). Siena College. June 20, 2024.
  31. ^ a b Mumford, Camille (May 30, 2024). "New York 2024 Poll: Biden 48%, Trump 41%". Emerson Polling.
  32. ^ "Siena College Poll Conducted by the Siena College Research Institute May 13 - 15, 2024" (PDF). Siena College. May 22, 2024.
  33. ^ "Slingshot New York State Topline". Politico. May 11, 2024.
  34. ^ a b c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
  35. ^ "Siena College Poll Conducted by the Siena College Research Institute April 15 - 17, 2024" (PDF). Siena College. April 22, 2024.
  36. ^ a b "Siena College Poll Conducted by the Siena College Research Institute February 12 - 14, 2024" (PDF). Siena College. February 20, 2024.
  37. ^ a b "Siena College Poll Conducted by the Siena College Research Institute January 14 - 17, 2024" (PDF). Siena College. January 22, 2024.
  38. ^ a b "Siena College Poll Conducted by the Siena College Research Institute November 12 - 15, 2023" (PDF). Siena College. November 20, 2023.
  39. ^ a b "Siena College Poll Conducted by the Siena College Research Institute October 15 - 19, 2023" (PDF). Siena College. October 24, 2023.
  40. ^ "Siena College Poll Conducted by the Siena College Research Institute September 10 - 13, 2023" (PDF). Siena College. September 19, 2023.
  41. ^ "Majorities of NY Voters Feel Less Safe Today Than One Year Ago, Believe Cashless Bail Causing Crime to Increase; Strong Support For Gun Reform; Inflation, Abortion Remain Top Issues in Election; Voters Give Slim Advantage to Republican Party on Reducing Crime, Improving the Economy". SurveyUSA. November 7, 2022.
  42. ^ Mumford, Camille (October 28, 2022). "New York 2022: Hochul's Lead Over Zeldin Tightens; Independent Voters Flip Toward Zeldin". Emerson Polling.
  43. ^ "GOP Appears to be Having a Moment in New York as Biden Approval Falls, Trump Closes Gap in Hypothetical 2024 Rematch". SurveyUSA. October 19, 2022.
  44. ^ Mumford, Camille (September 9, 2022). "New York 2022: Hochul Maintains Double-Digit Lead Over Zeldin; Biden's Approval Increases 10 Points Among Young Voters". Emerson Polling.
  45. ^ "11 Weeks To NY Election, Incumbent Dem Kathy Hochul Holds Wide Lead Over GOP's Zeldin; Candidates Tie Among Those Focused on Inflation". SurveyUSA. August 22, 2022.
  46. ^ Campanile, Carl (August 11, 2022). "Lee Zeldin in striking distance of Kathy Hochul, voters tired of Chuck Schumer: poll". The New York Post.
  47. ^ "THE CONTEST LIST" (PDF). Vote.nyc. Retrieved September 23, 2024.
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