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On February 6, the FMS stated that Tropical Disturbance 08F had formed.<ref>{{Cite web |date=2024-02-06 |title=Fiji Meteorological Service |url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240206053700/https://www.met.gov.fj/index.php?page=warn1#20036.txt |access-date=2024-02-06 |website=web.archive.org}}</ref> Later that day, they upgraded the system into a tropical depression.<ref>{{Cite web |date=2024-02-06 |title=Fiji Meteorological Service |url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240206212844/https://www.met.gov.fj/index.php?page=warn1#20033.txt |access-date=2024-02-06 |website=web.archive.org}}</ref> The JTWC followed suit a few hours later, designating it as Tropical Cyclone 11P.<ref>{{Cite web |date=2024-02-06 |title=Wayback Machine |url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240206214054/https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/sh1124web.txt |access-date=2024-02-06 |website=web.archive.org}}</ref>{{clear}}
On February 6, the FMS stated that Tropical Disturbance 08F had formed.<ref>{{Cite web |date=2024-02-06 |title=Fiji Meteorological Service |url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240206053700/https://www.met.gov.fj/index.php?page=warn1#20036.txt |access-date=2024-02-06 |website=web.archive.org}}</ref> Later that day, they upgraded the system into a tropical depression.<ref>{{Cite web |date=2024-02-06 |title=Fiji Meteorological Service |url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240206212844/https://www.met.gov.fj/index.php?page=warn1#20033.txt |access-date=2024-02-06 |website=web.archive.org}}</ref> The JTWC followed suit a few hours later, designating it as Tropical Cyclone 11P.<ref>{{Cite web |date=2024-02-06 |title=Wayback Machine |url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240206214054/https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/sh1124web.txt |access-date=2024-02-06 |website=web.archive.org}}</ref>

==== Current storm information ====
For the latest official storm information, see:

* FMS's [https://www.met.gov.fj/index.php?page=threatmap2 Tropical Cyclone Track Map] for Tropical Depression 08F
* FMS's Tropical Cyclone Track Map for Tropical Depression 08F<nowiki/>https://www.met.gov.fj/index.php?page=warn1#20033.txt<nowiki/>FMS's [https://www.met.gov.fj/index.php?page=warn1#20033.txt Tropical Disturbance Advisory] for Tropical Cyclone Nat (06F)
*
* JTWC's Tropical Cyclone Warning for Tropical Cyclone Eleven (11P)
{{clear}}


==Storm names==
==Storm names==

Revision as of 21:45, 6 February 2024

2023–24 South Pacific cyclone season
Season summary map
Seasonal boundaries
First system formedOctober 19, 2023
Last system dissipatedSeason ongoing
Strongest storm
NameLola
 • Maximum winds215 km/h (130 mph)
(10-minute sustained)
 • Lowest pressure930 hPa (mbar)
Seasonal statistics
Total disturbances8
Total depressions4
Tropical cyclones3
Severe tropical cyclones2
Total fatalities2
Total damageUnknown
Related articles
South Pacific tropical cyclone seasons
2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26

The 2023–24 South Pacific cyclone season is an ongoing weather event in the South Pacific Ocean, to the east of 160°E. The season officially started on November 1, 2023, and will end on April 30, 2024, however a tropical cyclone could form between July 1, 2023, and June 30, 2024 and still be included in the season, as shown by Cyclone Lola which formed in October. During the season, tropical cyclones will be officially monitored by the Fiji Meteorological Service, Australian Bureau of Meteorology and New Zealand's MetService. The United States Armed Forces through the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) will also monitor the basin and issue unofficial warnings for American interests. The FMS attaches a number and an F suffix to tropical disturbances that form in or move into the basin while the JTWC designates significant tropical cyclones with a number and a P suffix. The BoM, FMS and MetService all use the Australian Tropical Cyclone Intensity Scale and estimate windspeeds with a period of approximately ten minutes, while the JTWC estimates sustained winds over a 1-minute period, which are subsequently compared to the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale (SSHWS).

Seasonal forecasts

Source/Record Region Tropical
Cyclone 		Severe
Tropical
Cyclones 		Ref
Records
Average (1969-70 - 2022–23): 160°E - 120°W 7 3 [1]
Record high: 160°E - 120°W 1997–98: 16 1982–83: 9 [2]
Record low: 160°E - 120°W 1990–91:  2 2008–09:  0 [2]
Predictions
CWCL July 135°E - 120°W 8–11 — [3]
CWCL August 135°E - 120°W 8–11 — [3]
CWCL September 135°E - 120°W 8-14 — [3]
CWCL October 135°E - 120°W 9-14 — [4]
NIWA October 135°E - 120°W 9–14 4–8 [5]
FMS Whole 160°E - 120°W 8-14 6-9 [1]
FMS Western 160°E - 180° 4-6 2-4 [1]
FMS Eastern 180°   - 120°W 6-9 3-4 [1]

Ahead of the season officially starting on November 1, the Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS), Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) and the University of Newcastle's Australian Centre for Water, Climate and Land (ACWCL), each issued a tropical cyclone outlook that discussed the upcoming season. These outlooks took into account a variety of factors such as a developing El Niño event and what had happened in previous seasons such as 1972–73, 1982–83, 1987–88, 1991–92, 1997–98, 2002–03, 2004–05, 2009–10 and 2015–16.[1][5]

The first two of these outlooks were issued in July and August by the ACWCL who suggested that it would be a near-normal season, with eight and eleven tropical cyclones occurring between 135°E and 120°W during the season.[3] The ACWCL tweaked its forecast during September and suggested that up to fourteen tropical cyclones would occur between 135°E and 120°W during the season.[3] They subsequently joined NIWA, the FMS, BoM, MetService and various other Pacific meteorological services and contributed towards the Southwest Pacific tropical cyclone outlook.[5] This outlook suggested that between nine and fourteen tropical cyclones would occur between 135°E and 120°W.[5] Four to eight of these tropical cyclones were expected to intensify and become either a Category three, four or five severe tropical cyclone on the Australian tropical cyclone intensity scale.[5]

In addition to contributing towards the Southwest Pacific tropical cyclone outlook, the FMS and the BoM issued their own seasonal forecasts for the South Pacific region.[1][6] The BoM issued two seasonal forecasts for the Southern Pacific Ocean, for their self-defined eastern and western regions of the South Pacific Ocean.[6] They predicted that the Western region between 142.5°E and 165°E, had a 32% chance of seeing activity above its average of 4 tropical cyclones.[6] The BoM also predicted that the Eastern Region between 165°E and 120°W, had a 60% chance of seeing activity above its average of 6 tropical cyclones.[6] Within their outlook the FMS predicted that between eight and fourteen tropical cyclones would occur within the basin compared to an average of around 7.[1] At least five of these tropical cyclones were expected to intensify further and become either a Category three, four or five severe tropical cyclone on the Australian scale.[1] The FMS also predicted that the majority of systems would occur to the east of the International Dateline, with 4-6 tropical cyclones expected to occur between 160°E - 180° while 6-9 were expected to occur between 180° - 120°W.[1] On October 21, the ACWCL issued their final outlook for the season and predicted that it would be an above average season with 9-14 tropical cyclones occurring between 135°E and 120°W.[4]

Seasonal summary

Cyclone JasperCyclone Lola (2023)Tropical cyclone scales#Australia and Fiji

The season began with the formation of Cyclone Lola on October 19, thirteen days before the official start of the season. Three days later, it would rapidly intensify into a Category 5 severe tropical cyclone on the Australian scale, making it the strongest pre-season cyclone in a South Pacific cyclone season since Cyclone Xavier in 2006. In November, Cyclone Mal would form, peak as a severe tropical cyclone, and impact Fiji before dissipating. On December 2, the precursor disturbance to Cyclone Jasper would form before exiting the basin and entering the Australian basin a day later.

After a significant lull in activity, Tropical Disturbance 04F formed on January 25. After dissipating two days later, Tropical Low 06U entered the basin from the Australian region on February 2 and was designated as Tropical Disturbance 05F. Two days, later it re-entered the Australian region from the South Pacific region. After that, Nat formed along with Tropical Disturbances 07F and 08F.

Systems

Severe Tropical Cyclone Lola

Category 5 severe tropical cyclone (Australian scale)
Category 4 tropical cyclone (SSHWS)
 
DurationOctober 19 – October 27
Peak intensity215 km/h (130 mph) (10-min);
930 hPa (mbar)
Main article: Cyclone Lola (2023)
See also: List of off-season South Pacific tropical cyclones

On October 19, the Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS) reported that Tropical Disturbance 01F had developed out of an area of low pressure, about 1295 km (805 mi) to the northeast of Honiara in the Solomon Islands.[7][8] At this time, the system was located in an area favourable for further development, with warm sea-surface temperatures of 30–31 °C (86–88 °F) and low to moderate vertical wind shear.[7][9] Over the next few days, the system gradually moved southwestward before the FMS classified it as a tropical depression on October 21.[10] The cyclone drifted southward until an upper-level ridge forced the storm to the south.[11] During the next day, it intensified into a Category 1 tropical cyclone, resulting in the FMS naming it Lola.[12] Lola would rapidly intensify, becoming a Category 4 tropical cyclone on 12:00 UTC that day, peaking with maximum ten-minute sustained winds of 175 km/h (110 mph).[13] With convective rain bands wrapping into the circulation, the JTWC assessed Lola as having one-minute sustained winds of 215 km/h (130 mph).[14] At the same time, the FMS followed suit and upgraded the system to a Category 5 severe tropical cyclone.[15] Lola's eye quickly disappeared, signaling a phase of rapid weakening.[16] It would steadily weaken before making landfall in Sowan, around 03:00 UTC on October 25.[17] Lola would rapidly weaken, becoming a tropical depression on October 26, and degenerating into a remnant low as the JTWC issued their final advisory on Lola.[18][19]

Lola was the third severe tropical cyclone to impact Vanuatu during 2023, after Cyclones Judy and Kevin impacted the island nation during March 2023.[20] Vanuatu Prime Minister Charlot Salwai took a Royal Australian Air Force to inspect the early damage. At least 10,000 households were affected by the storm. Additionally, the New Zealand, Australian, and French defense forces provided further aid and assessed damages.[21] In the Solomon Islands, the Solomon Islands National Disaster Management Office (NDMO) reported that Cyclone Lola had severe impacts on Tikopia.[22]

Severe Tropical Cyclone Mal

Category 3 severe tropical cyclone (Australian scale)
Category 1 tropical cyclone (SSHWS)
 
DurationNovember 10 – November 15
Peak intensity130 km/h (80 mph) (10-min);
965 hPa (mbar)

On November 11, the FMS reported that Tropical Disturbance 02F had formed near the Solomon Islands and moved towards Fiji.[23] Although the disturbance was disorganized, it underwent further development from warm sea surface temperatures and low to moderate vertical wind shear.[24] By November 12, the system intensified into a tropical depression.[25] Persistent deep convection then organized as rainbands circulate around the center.[26] It intensified into a Category 1 tropical cyclone later on November 13, with the FMS naming it as Mal.[27] Mal continued to strengthen over the favorable conditions as well as high ocean heat content. Hot towers also rose around the center of the storm, a sign of consolidation.[28] On November 14, it intensified into a Category 2 tropical cyclone.[29] As the storm continued to move southeast by the southwest edge of a subtropical ridge, Mal strengthened into a Category 3 severe tropical cyclone at 12:00 UTC of the same day.[30] On November 15, it began to weaken as it entered an environment of high wind shear.[31] It later entered the New Zealand MetService's area of responsibility, where it was reclassified as an ex-tropical cyclone.[32]

On November 12, a gale alert was issued for the Yasawa and Mamunca groups as well as the western and northern regions of Viti Levu.[33] The FMS anticipated the system to become a Tropical Cyclone by November 13.[34] Nevertheless, the National Disaster Management Office of Fiji (NDMO) issued a tropical cyclone alert and citizens were urged to exercise caution.[35] Mal poured heavy rain upon the Western Division of Fiji and induced power outages in Nadi.[36] As powerlines and trees were knocked down by TC Mal across the nation, the Fiji NDMO advised the public to stay indoors and avoid unnecessary travel while recovery efforts were underway.[37] The cyclone's impact on Fiji was minimal with the NDMO reporting no casualties or injuries reported. On November 17, a Royal New Zealand navy ship, the HMNZS Manawanui which was already in Fiji as part of its seven-week deployment, assisted the Fiji NDMO in conducting initial damage assessments.[38]

Tropical Disturbance 03F (Jasper)

Tropical disturbance (Australian scale)
 
DurationDecember 2 – December 3 (Exited basin)
Peak intensityWinds not specified;
1002 hPa (mbar)
Main article: Cyclone Jasper

On December 2, the FMS declared that Tropical Disturbance 03F had formed.[39] Analysis from the JTWC indicated that the disturbance was in a favorable environment for development, with warm sea surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear.[40] Moving southward, the disturbance would exit the basin on December 4 and enter the Australian region, where the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) assumed responsibility for the system. In the Australian basin, the system would later intensify into Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasper.[41][42]

On 6 December, the Solomon Islands Meteorological Service issued warnings for parts of Rennell and Bellona Province after it became apparent that Jasper was moving towards the southernmost islands of New Georgia.[43] As Jasper affected the islands, several transport services were cancelled while water supplies were compromised.[44]

Tropical Disturbance 04F

Tropical disturbance (Australian scale)
 
DurationJanuary 25 – January 26
Peak intensityWinds not specified;
1002 hPa (mbar)

On January 25, the FMS stated that Tropical Disturbance 04F had formed.[45] Two days later, they stopped monitoring the system since it had dissipated.[46]

Tropical Disturbance 05F

Tropical disturbance (Australian scale)
 
DurationFebruary 1 (Entered basin) – February 4 (Exited basin)
Peak intensityWinds not specified;
998 hPa (mbar)

On February 2, Subtropical Low 06U entered the basin from the Australian region and was reclassified as 05F by the FMS.[47] However, two days later, the system re-entered the Australian region.[48]

Tropical Cyclone Nat

Template:Infobox weather event/CurrentTemplate:Infobox weather event/liveTemplate:Infobox weather event/live
Tropical Cyclone Nat
Satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Nat
Satellite image
 Forecast map for Tropical Cyclone Nat
Forecast map

On February 3, the FMS stated that Tropical Disturbance 06F had formed near the Samoan islands.[49] Two days later, they upgraded the system into a tropical depression.[50] The next day, the JTWC issued a TCFA for the system.[51] A few hours later, they recognized the system as Tropical Cyclone 10P.[52] Later that day, the FMS upgraded the system into a tropical cyclone, naming it Nat.[53]

As the disturbance was expected to bring severe impacts, Météo-France issued a pre-cyclone alert for Maupiti[54] while the FMS issued a tropical cyclone alert for the Southern Cook Islands.[55]

Current storm information

For the latest official storm information, see:

Tropical Disturbance 07F

Tropical disturbance (Australian scale)
 
DurationFebruary 5 – Present
Peak intensityWinds not specified;
1002 hPa (mbar)

On February 5, the FMS stated that Tropical Disturbance 07F had formed.[48]


Tropical Depression 08F

Tropical depression (Australian scale)
Tropical depression (SSHWS)
 
DurationFebruary 6 – Present
Peak intensity55 km/h (35 mph) (10-min);
998 hPa (mbar)

On February 6, the FMS stated that Tropical Disturbance 08F had formed.[56] Later that day, they upgraded the system into a tropical depression.[57] The JTWC followed suit a few hours later, designating it as Tropical Cyclone 11P.[58]

Current storm information

For the latest official storm information, see:

Storm names

See also: Lists of tropical cyclone names

Within the Southern Pacific, a tropical depression is judged to have reached tropical cyclone intensity should it reach winds of 65 km/h (40 mph) and it is evident that gales are occurring at least halfway around the center. With tropical depressions intensifying into a tropical cyclone between the Equator and 25°S and between 160°E - 120°W named by the FMS. However, should a tropical depression intensify to the south of 25°S between 160°E and 120°W it will be named in conjunction with the FMS by MetService. If a tropical cyclone leaves the basin and enter the Australian region, it will retain its original name. The names that will be used for the 2023–24 season are listed below:[59]

  • Lola
  • Mal
  • Nat (active)
  • Osai (unused)
  • Pita (unused)
  • Rae (unused)
  • Seru (unused)
  • Tam (unused)
  • Urmil (unused)
  • Vaianu (unused)
  • Wati (unused)
  • Xavier (unused)
  • Yani (unused)
  • Zita (unused)

Season effects

This table lists all the storms that developed in the South Pacific to the east of longitude 160°E during the 2023–24 season. It includes their intensity on the Australian tropical cyclone intensity scale, duration, name, landfalls, deaths, and damages. All data is taken from RSMC Nadi and/or TCWC Wellington, and all of the damage figures are in 2023 or 2024 USD.

Name Dates Peak intensity Areas affected Damage
(USD) 		Deaths Refs
Category Wind speed Pressure
Lola October 19 – 27 Category 5 severe tropical cyclone 215 km/h (130 mph) 930 hPa (27.46 inHg) Vanuatu, Solomon Islands, New Caledonia, New Zealand Unknown 2−3
Mal November 10 – 15 Category 3 severe tropical cyclone 130 km/h (80 mph) 965 hPa (28.50 inHg) Fiji Unknown None
Jasper December 2 – 3 Tropical disturbance Unknown 1002 hPa (29.59 inHg) Solomon Islands None None
04F January 25 – 26 Tropical disturbance Unknown 1002 hPa (29.59 inHg) Fiji None None
05F February 1 – present Tropical disturbance Unknown 998 hPa (29.47 inHg) New Caledonia None None
Nat February 3 – present Category 2 tropical cyclone 95 km/h (60 mph) 985 hPa (29.09 inHg) Samoa, American Samoa None None
07F February 5 – present Tropical disturbance Unknown 1002 hPa (29.59 inHg) None None None
08F February 6 – present Tropical depression 55 km/h (35 mph) 998 hPa (29.47 inHg) None None None
Season aggregates
8 systems October 19, 2023 – Season ongoing 215 km/h (130 mph) 930 hPa (30 inHg) Unknown Unknown

See also

References

  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i "Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre Nadi – Tropical Cyclone Centre (RSMC Nadi – TCC) Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Outlook 2023–24 Detailed Outlook" (PDF). Fiji Meteorological Service. October 12, 2023. Archived (PDF) from the original on October 12, 2023. Retrieved October 12, 2023.
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  39. ^ Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W issued from RSMC Nadi Dec 020627 UTC (Report). Fiji Meteorological Service. December 2, 2023. Archived from the original on December 2, 2023. Retrieved December 2, 2023.
  40. ^ Significant Tropical Weather Advisory for the Western and South Pacific Oceans December 1, 2023 14:30z (Report). United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center. December 1, 2023. Retrieved December 1, 2023.
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  43. ^ Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 2 December 6, 2023 01:30 AM (Report). Solomon Islands Meteorological Service. 2 April 2020. Archived from the original on 5 December 2023. Retrieved 16 April 2020.{{cite report}}: CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown (link)
  44. ^ "Tropical cyclone Jasper impacts Solomon Islands as it slowly moves away". RNZ. 2023-12-08. Retrieved 2024-01-23.
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