2023–24 Australian region cyclone season

2023–24 Australian region cyclone season
Season summary map
Seasonal boundaries
First system formed	4 December 2023
Last system dissipated	Season ongoing
Strongest storm
Name	Jasper
• Maximum winds	195 km/h (120 mph) (10-minute sustained)
• Lowest pressure	938 hPa (mbar)
Seasonal statistics
Tropical lows	4
Tropical cyclones	3
Severe tropical cyclones	3
Total fatalities	1 total
Total damage	$675 million (2023 USD)
Related articles
2023–24 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season 2023–24 South Pacific cyclone season

The 2023–24 Australian region cyclone season is the current tropical cyclone season in the Southern Hemisphere, in the Australian Region, that lies between 90° E and 160° E. The season officially started on 1 November 2023 and will end on 30 April 2024, however, a tropical cyclone could form at any time between 1 July 2023 and 30 June 2024 and would count towards the season total. During the season, tropical cyclones will be officially monitored by one of the three tropical cyclone warning centres (TCWCs) for the region which are operated by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, National Weather Service of Papua New Guinea and the Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics. The United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and other national meteorological services including Météo-France and the Fiji Meteorological Service will also monitor the basin during the season.

Season forecasts

Source/Record		Tropical Cyclone	Severe Tropical Cyclone	Ref
Record high:		21	12
Record low:		3	0
Average (1969–70 – 2023–24):		11	—
Region		Chance of less	Average number	Ref
Whole (90°E–160°E)		80%	11
Western (90°E–125°E)		72%	7
North-Western (105°E–130°E)		75%	5
Northern (125°E–142.5°E)		61%	3
Eastern (142.5°E–160°E)		76%	4
Western South Pacific (142.5°E—165°E)		68%	4
Eastern South Pacific (165°E—120°W)		40%	6

Ahead of the season officially starting on 1 November, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) and New Zealand's National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) both issued a tropical cyclone outlook that discussed the upcoming season. These outlooks took into account a variety of factors such as a developing El Niño event and what had happened in previous seasons such as 1972–73, 1982–83, 1997–98, 2009–10 and 2015–16. Within their seasonal outlook for the Australian region, the BoM suggested that there was an 80% chance, that the whole region between 90°E – 160°E, would be below average, having less than the long term average of 11 tropical cyclones. They also suggested that each of their self-defined Western, Northern, North-western and Eastern regions would see a below-average amount of tropical cyclone activity.

The BoM also issued a seasonal forecast that discussed tropical cyclone activity over the South Pacific Ocean for their self-defined eastern and western regions of the South Pacific Ocean. Within this forecast, they predicted that their western region between 142.5°E and 165°E would have a below average amount of activity, while their eastern region between 165°E and 120°W had a 60% chance of seeing activity above its average of 6 tropical cyclones. Along with other Pacific Meteorological Services, the BoM contributed to NIWA's Southwest Pacific tropical cyclone outlook, which predicted that nine and fourteen tropical cyclones would occur between 135°E and 120°W. At least four to eight of these systems were expected to intensify further and become either a Category 3, 4 or 5 severe tropical cyclone on the Australian tropical cyclone intensity scale.

Season summary

Early activity

The season officially started on 1 November, however the first system, Cyclone Jasper, will not active until 4 December, when it crossed into the basin as a tropical low from the South Pacific. The low became a named storm on 5 December, receiving the name Jasper, and intensified into the season's first severe tropical cyclone the next day. Jasper made landfall in Far North Queensland as a Category 2 tropical cyclone on 13 December. After a significant lull in activity, Tropical Cyclone Anggrek and Tropical Low 03U formed on 10 and 11 January respectively, with the latter dissipating on 23 January. The next day, Cyclone Kirrily formed.

Systems

Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasper

Category 4 severe tropical cyclone (Australian scale)
Category 4 tropical cyclone (SSHWS)
Duration	4 December (Entered basin) – 18 December
Peak intensity	195 km/h (120 mph) (10-min); 938 hPa (mbar)

Main article: Cyclone Jasper

On 2 December, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) reported that Tropical Disturbance 03F, which was re-designated as Tropical Low 02U, had formed in the South Pacific Ocean in Fiji's area of responsibility. Two days later, on 00:00 UTC of 4 December, the system would enter the Australian area of responsibility. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA) later that day, projecting a high likelihood of a significant tropical cyclone developing. Later the next day, the JTWC subsequently initiated advisories on the system and classified it as Tropical Cyclone 03P. The BoM subsequently followed suit and upgraded it to a Category 1 tropical cyclone, naming it Jasper. Jasper started to track southward under the steering influence of a near equatorial ridge to the east. During the next day, the cyclone's center continued to organize, with deep convective bands starting to wrap around the center, prompting the JTWC to upgrade the system to a Category 1 hurricane. Jasper rapidly intensified into a Category 3 severe tropical cyclone, due to being in an environment with warm sea surface temperatures and low wind shear. The next day, it further intensified, becoming a Category 4 severe tropical cyclone. Shortly thereafter, Jasper began weakening, with its eye becoming cloud-filled and the deep convection eroding due to dry air entrainment. Jasper would reintensify, and at 12:00 UTC on 13 December, made landfall as a Category 2 tropical cyclone in Wujal Wujal, Queensland. After making landfall, the JTWC discontinue warnings on the system later that day. By 14:00 UTC that day, the BoM reported that Jasper had weakened to a tropical low. However, they would later downgrade its chances of re-developing to very low as the storm turned southeast further inland, and on 18 December, Jasper was last noted over the Cape York Peninsula.

Jasper produced torrential rainfall, peaking at 2,252 mm (88.7 in) at Bairds near the Daintree River. If verified, this would make Jasper the wettest tropical cyclone to impact Australia on record. Many locals used personal watercraft to extract people who were trapped on their roofs within the coastal suburbs. Some flights were canceled at Cairns Airport. One man died and another went missing due to flooding caused by Jasper. 24-hour totals include the Daintree catchment recording 624 mm (24.6 in) of rain, while the town of Diwan recorded exactly 500 mm (20 in). Jasper also brought brief heavy rainfall accumulations in the Bloomfield River, averaging from 625–796 mm (24.6–31.3 in) with rainfall pushing 803 mm (31.6 in) in Wujal Wujal and Daintree Village. The Insurance Council of Australia estimated that Jasper caused AU$1 billion (US$675 million) in damages.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Anggrek

Category 3 severe tropical cyclone (Australian scale)
Category 1 tropical cyclone (SSHWS)
Duration	10 January – 25 January (Exited basin)
Peak intensity	150 km/h (90 mph) (10-min); 968 hPa (mbar)

On 9 January, the BoM noted that a tropical low could form in the Indian Ocean, designating it as 04U. Later the next day, the BoM reported that it had formed to the northwest of the Cocos Islands. On 11 January, the JTWC followed suit in monitoring the system, after convection had significantly consolidated around the circulation. Three days later, the agency issued a TCFA, for the disturbance as it was situated in an environment of warm waters, low shear, and good outflow. By 15 January, the JTWC began issuing advisories, recognizing it as Tropical Cyclone 06S after its circulation had improved, with the BoM subsequently followed suit and upgraded it to a Category 1 tropical cyclone. Since the cyclone was within their area of responsibility, Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysical Agency (BMKG) named the system Anggrek. It tracked southeast before changing direction and tracking west. Anggrek remained nearly stationary due to weak steering ridges to the north and southwest, the system generated upwelling, causing sea surface temperatures to decrease. Despite that, Anggrek steadily re-intensified, and after entering favourable conditions on 24 January, became a Category 3 severe tropical cyclone, with estimated maximum 10-minute sustained winds of 150 km/h (90 mph), and a central barometric pressure of 968 hPa (28.59 inHg). while the system's depiction showed that tightly circulating around a ragged eye. The next day, the system exited the basin towards the South-West Indian Ocean, and the Météo-France assumed responsibility for the system.

Tropical Low 03U

Tropical low (Australian scale)
Duration	11 January – 23 January
Peak intensity	Winds not specified; 991 hPa (mbar)

On 7 January, the BoM noted the possibility of a tropical low forming near the north Kimberley, as a monsoon trough was expected to develop along the Top End. It was predesignated as 03U. This came to fruition 4 days later, when the BoM reported that it was developing over the southern Joseph Bonaparte Gulf within the trough. As the tropical low-tracked overland, with sea surface temperatures, the system maintained a robust outflow channel in the upper troposphere. The BoM still monitored the low until they determined that it would not develop into a tropical cyclone on 23 January.

The low and its associated monsoon brought heavy rainfall to the Northern Territory, resulting in the BoM issuing flood watches and warnings throughout the Top End and central Northern Territory. Wadeye received 661 mm (26.0 in) of rainfall.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Kirrily

Main article: Cyclone Kirrily

Category 3 severe tropical cyclone (Australian scale)
Category 1 tropical cyclone (SSHWS)
Duration	12 January – Present
Peak intensity	120 km/h (75 mph) (10-min); 978 hPa (mbar)

Alongside Cyclone Anggrek, the BoM also noted the possibility of a tropical low forming within the monsoon trough over the Gulf of Carpentaria on 9 January, designating it as 05U. Three days later, the BoM reported that it was developing over the eastern portion of the gulf. At this stage, the system was located within a favorable environment for further development with good outflow, low vertical wind shear, and warm (29–30 °C) sea surface temperatures. Two days later, the JTWC issued a TCFA for the system. On the morning of 21 January, the BoM started issuing warnings on the system. By 23 January, the JTWC followed suit, recognizing it as Tropical Cyclone 07P. The next day, the BoM upgraded the low into a Category 1 tropical cyclone, naming it Kirrily. Deep convection shifted to the western side of Kirrily's circulation, though its centre remained well defined. It subsequently intensified to a Category 3 severe tropical cyclone, the JTWC followed suit the system and upgraded it to a Category 1 hurricane, prior to landfall over Townsville, Australia on 25 January. Shortly after the landfall, the JTWC discontinued warnings on the system. The next day, the BoM discontinued warnings.

Before the storm made landfall on 24 January, the BoM issued cyclone warnings for Townsville, Mackay, Bowen, the Whitsunday Islands, which extended inland to Charters Towers. As the storm impacted Queensland, locally intense rainfall up to 300 mm (12 in) was recorded. Authorities rescued fourteen people who were stranded in floodwaters while trying to inspect the impact of the storm. The remnant low of Kirrily fed severe thunderstorms in Southeast Queensland, prompting a superstorm warning from the BoM.

Storm names

Bureau of Meteorology

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (TCWC Melbourne) monitors all tropical cyclones that form within the Australian region, including any within the areas of responsibility of TCWC Jakarta or TCWC Port Moresby. Should a tropical low intensify into a tropical cyclone within the BoM's area of responsibility, it will be assigned the next name from the following naming list. The names that will be used for the 2023–24 season are listed below:

Jasper Kirrily Lincoln (unused) Megan (unused) Neville (unused) Olga (unused)

Paul (unused) Robyn (unused) Sean (unused) Taliah (unused) Vince (unused) Zelia (unused)

TCWC Jakarta

TCWC Jakarta monitors all tropical cyclones active from the Equator to 11S and from 90E to 145E. Should a tropical depression intensify into a tropical cyclone within TCWC Jakarta's Area of Responsibility, it will be assigned the next name from the following list.

Anggrek Bakung (unused)

Cempaka (unused) Dahlia (unused)

Flamboyan (unused) Lili (unused)

TCWC Port Moresby

Tropical cyclones that develop north of 11°S between 151°E and 160°E are assigned names by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre in Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea. Tropical cyclone formation in this area is extremely rare, with no cyclones being named in it since 2007. As names are assigned in a random order, the whole list is shown below:

Hibu (unused) Ila (unused) Kama (unused) Lobu (unused) Maila (unused)

Alu (unused) Buri (unused) Dodo (unused) Emau (unused) Fere (unused)

Season effects

This table lists all of the tropical cyclones and subtropical cyclones that were monitored during the 2023–2024 Australian region cyclone season. Information on their intensity, duration, name, areas affected, primarily comes from TCWC Melbourne. Death and damage reports come from either press reports or the relevant national disaster management agency while the damage totals are given in 2023 or 2024 USD.

2023–24 Australian region cyclone season

Name	Dates	Peak intensity			Areas affected	Damage (US$)	Deaths
		Category	Wind speed (km/h (mph))	Pressure (hPa)
Jasper	4–18 Dec	Category 4 severe tropical cyclone	195 (120)	938	Solomon Islands, Queensland	675 million	1
Anggrek	10–25 Jan	Category 3 severe tropical cyclone	150 (90)	968	None	None	0
03U	11–23 Jan	Tropical low	Not specified	991	Northern Territory, Western Australia	None	0
Kirrily	12 Jan – Present	Category 3 severe tropical cyclone	120 (75)	978	Queensland	None	0
Season aggregates
4 systems	4 Dec – Present		195 (120)	938		675 million	1

See also

• Weather of 2023 and 2024
• List of Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone seasons
• Tropical cyclones in 2023, 2024
• Atlantic hurricane seasons: 2023, 2024
• Pacific hurricane seasons: 2023, 2024
• Pacific typhoon seasons: 2023, 2024
• North Indian Ocean cyclone seasons: 2023, 2024
• 2023–24 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season
• 2023–24 South Pacific cyclone season

External links

• Australian Bureau of Meteorology
• Joint Typhoon Warning Center
• TCWC Jakarta
• Papua New Guinea National Weather Service