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2004 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania

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The 2004 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania was held on November 2, 2004. Incumbent Republican Senator Arlen Specter won re-election to a fifth term. As of 2024, this is the last time a Republican statewide candidate won Montgomery and Delaware Counties and won more than 25% of the vote in Philadelphia. Specter later lost renomination in 2010 as a Democrat, having joined the party in April 2009. Specter’s party switch marked the first time since 1947 that Democrats held both of Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate seats.

2004 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania
← 1998 November 2, 2004 2010 →
 
Nominee Arlen Specter Joe Hoeffel
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 2,925,080 2,334,126
Percentage 52.62% 41.99%
County results
Specter:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Hoeffel:      40–50%      70–80%
U.S. senator before election

Arlen Specter
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Arlen Specter
Republican

Democratic primary

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Campaign

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Democrats had difficulty recruiting top tier candidates against the popular Specter. Among the Democrats to decline to run for the nomination were Treasurer (and former Republican) Barbara Hafer, Public Utilities Commissioner John Hanger, real estate mogul Howard Hanna, State Representative (and also former Republican) John Lawless, and State Senator (and future Congresswoman) Allyson Schwartz.[1]

Congressman Hoeffel ended up running unopposed for the Democratic nomination. Software businessman Charlie Crystle was considered a strong possible candidate, but he dropped out before the election.[1][2]

Results

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Democratic Party primary for Pennsylvania Senate Election
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Joe Hoeffel 595,816 100.00%

Republican primary

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Pat Toomey

Campaign

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Specter faced a primary challenge from Representative Pat Toomey. Despite the state Republican Party's strong history of embracing a moderate philosophy, the influence of conservatism among rank-and-file members had been steadily growing for decades; because of his liberal social views, Specter was often considered to be a "Republican in Name Only" by the right.[3] Although Specter had a huge fundraising advantage, Toomey was aided by $2 million of advertising from the Club for Growth, a conservative political action committee that focuses on fiscal issues and targets moderate Republican incumbents. Toomey criticized Specter as a spendthrift on economic policy and as out of touch with his own party on social issues. Although Toomey had difficulty with name recognition early in the campaign, he built huge momentum over the final weeks preceding the primary, and Specter appeared to have transitioned from having a comfortable lead to being behind his challenger.[4]

Specter received a huge boost from the vocal support of President George W. Bush; most of the state's Republican establishment also closed ranks behind Specter. This included Pennsylvania's other U.S. Senator, Rick Santorum, who was noted for his social conservative views. Many Republicans at the state and national level feared that if Toomey beat Specter, he wouldn't be able to defend the seat against his Democratic opponent.[5]

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[6] 		Margin
of error 		Arlen
Specter 		Pat
Toomey 		Undecided
SurveyUSA[7] April 23–25, 2004 478 (LV) ± 4.6% 48% 48% 4%
Quinnipiac University[8] April 20–24, 2004 617 (LV) ± 4% 48% 42% 10%
the polling company, inc. (R)[9] April 22–23, 2004 500 (LV) ± 4.5% 46% 39% 15%
Franklin & Marshall College[10] April 13–20, 2004 401 (RV) ± 4.8% 50% 26% 24%
126 (LV) ± 8.7% 46% 40% 14%
SurveyUSA[11] April 17–19, 2004 479 (LV) ± 4.6% 50% 44% 6%
Quinnipiac University[12] April 12–18, 2004 431 (LV) ± 4.7% 49% 44% 7%
SurveyUSA[13] April 3–5, 2004 490 (LV) ± 4.5% 46% 40% 14%
Quinnipiac University[14] Mar 30–Apr 5, 2004 615 (LV) ± 4% 52% 37% 11%
Franklin & Marshall College[15] March 25–29, 2004 258 (RV) ± 6% 50% 28% 22%
193 (LV) ± 7% 46% 33% 21%
SurveyUSA[16] March 13–15, 2004 399 (LV) ± 5% 47% 38% 15%
the polling company, inc. (R)[17] March 9–10, 2004 500 (LV) ± 4.5% 47% 37% 16%
Franklin & Marshall College[18] February 19–22, 2004 176 (RV) ± 7.3% 55% 17% 28%
the polling company, inc. (R)[17] January 2004 500 (LV) ± 4.5% 51% 28% 21%
Muhlenberg College[19][20] Nov 23–Dec 8, 2003 193 (V) ± 7% 52% 25% 23%
Franklin & Marshall College[21] Oct 27–Nov 16, 2003 257 (RV) ± 6% 49% 18% 33%

Results

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Results by county
  Specter
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Toomey
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
Republican Party primary for Pennsylvania United States Senate election, 2004
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Arlen Specter (incumbent) 530,839 50.82%
Republican Pat Toomey 513,693 49.18%
Total votes 1,044,532 100.00%
Source: PA Department of State - 2004 General Primary

General election

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Candidates

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Major

Minor

  • Jim Clymer (C)
  • Betsy Summers (L)

Campaign

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For Democrats, hope of winning the election centered on Toomey's defeat of Specter. However, after the challenge from the right failed, enthusiasm from the party establishment waned and Hoeffel had difficulty matching the name recognition and fundraising power of his opponent [22] Despite contempt from conservatives, Specter enjoyed high levels of support from independent voters and, as in previous elections, a surprisingly large crossover from Democratic voters. Even in the areas in which Toomey performed best in the Republican primary (mainly the state's conservative, rural center), Specter performed well. Except for his large margin of victory in almost uniformly Democratic Philadelphia, Hoeffel was crushed at the polls; his only other wins came by close margins in three metro Pittsburgh counties; although President Bush proved to be unpopular in the state, voters were not willing to abandon Specter over party affiliation.[23] Incidentally, Toomey was elected to the seat in 2010, after Specter switched to the Democratic Party in 2009 and subsequently lost renomination to U.S. Congressman and former Navy Admiral Joe Sestak.[citation needed]

Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
Sabato's Crystal Ball[24] Safe R November 1, 2004

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[6] 		Margin
of error 		Arlen
Specter (R) 		Joel
Hoeffel (D) 		Jim
Clymer (C) 		Betsy
Summers (L) 		Undecided
SurveyUSA[25] Oct 31–Nov 1, 2004 650 (LV) ± 3.9% 53% 35% 8% 4%
Strategic Vision (R)[26] October 29–31, 2004 801 (LV) ± 3% 55% 33% 4% 8%
Quinnipiac University[27] October 27–31, 2004 1,022 (LV) ± 3.1% 53% 33% 7% 7%
Zogby International[28] October 27–30, 2004 601 (LV) ± 4.1% 54% 31% 15%
Zogby International[29] October 26–29, 2004 602 (LV) ± 4.1% 57% 28% 15%
Zogby International[30] October 25–28, 2004 603 (LV) ± 4.1% 53% 30% 17%
Strategic Vision (R)[26] October 25–27, 2004 801 (LV) ± 3% 55% 35% 4% 6%
Zogby International[31] October 24–27, 2004 602 (LV) ± 4.1% 55% 29% 16%
Temple University[32] October 22–27, 2004 1,488 (RV) ± 2.6% 51% 29% 5% 3% 12%
Zogby International[33] October 23–26, 2004 602 (LV) ± 4.1% 54% 33% 13%
Quinnipiac University[34] October 22–26, 2004 1,340 (RV) ± 2.7% 52% 29% 6% 13%
54% 30% 16%
909 (LV) ± 3.3% 55% 33% 7% 5%
60% 34% 6%
SurveyUSA[35] October 23–25, 2004 797 (LV) ± 3.5% 51% 38% 6% 5%
Zogby International[36] October 22–25, 2004 602 (LV) ± 4.1% 53% 35% 12%
Zogby International[37] October 21–24, 2004 603 (LV) ± 4.1% 48% 38% 14%
Franklin & Marshall College[38] October 19–23, 2003 622 (RV) ± 3.9% 52% 29% 4% 2% 13%
376 (LV) ± 5.1% 52% 31% 17%
Mason-Dixon[39] October 19–21, 2004 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 50% 32% 7% 11%
Quinnipiac University[40] October 16–20, 2004 1,185 (RV) ± 2.9% 49% 33% 5% 13%
52% 34% 14%
841 (LV) ± 3.4% 51% 36% 6% 7%
55% 37% 8%
Strategic Vision (R)[26] October 17–19, 2004 801 (LV) ± 3% 54% 35% 4% 7%
SurveyUSA[41] October 15–17, 2004 608 (LV) ± 4.1% 48% 41% 6% 5%
Quinnipiac University[42] October 9–11, 2004 1,980 (RV) ± 2.2% 51% 33% 16%
1,343 (LV) ± 2.7% 55% 36% 9%
Strategic Vision (R)[26] October 9–11, 2004 801 (LV) ± 3% 52% 33% 3% 12%
SurveyUSA[43] October 3–5, 2004 767 (LV) ± 3.6% 54% 35% 11%
Franklin & Marshall College[44] Sep 30–Oct 4, 2003 863 (RV) ± 4% 46% 32% 6% 16%
Strategic Vision (R)[26] September 27–29, 2004 801 (LV) ± 3% 53% 33% 3% 11%
Mason-Dixon[45] September 27–28, 2004 625 (RV) ± 4% 53% 31% 16%
Quinnipiac University[46] September 22–26, 2004 1,125 (RV) ± 2.9% 52% 33% 15%
726 (LV) ± 3.6% 56% 37% 7%
Strategic Vision (R)[26] September 13–15, 2004 801 (LV) ± 3% 52% 33% 4% 11%
Franklin & Marshall College[47] September 8–15, 2003 491 (RV) ± 4.4% 51% 25% 5% 19%
Quinnipiac University[48] September 11–14, 2004 1,205 (RV) ± 2.8% 51% 33% 16%
792 (LV) ± 3.5% 52% 37% 11%
SurveyUSA[49] September 7–9, 2004 684 (LV) ± 3.8% 51% 33% 16%
Strategic Vision (R)[26] August 26–28, 2004 801 (LV) ± 3% 51% 31% 4% 14%
Pew Research[50] August 13–21, 2004 1,006 (RV) ± 3% 54% 36% 10%
861 (LV) ± 4% 56% 36% 8%
Strategic Vision (R)[26] August 16–18, 2004 801 (LV) ± 3% 49% 32% 3% 16%
Quinnipiac University[51] August 11–16, 2004 1,430 (RV) ± 2.6% 48% 33% 19%
Franklin & Marshall College[52] August 2–15, 2003 660 (RV) ± 3.8% 53% 26% 2% 19%
SurveyUSA[53] Jul 31–Aug 2, 2004 740 (LV) ± 3.7% 49% 34% 17%
Quinnipiac University[54] July 6–11, 2004 1,577 (RV) ± 2.5% 51% 36% 13%
Quinnipiac University[55] June 21–22, 2004 839 (RV) ± 3.4% 50% 35% 15%
Neighborhood Research (C)[56] June 7–16, 2004 631 (LV) ± 3.9% 52% 23% 2% 23%
SurveyUSA[57] June 7–9, 2004 679 (LV) ± 3.8% 58% 33% 9%
Quinnipiac University[58] May 24–25, 2004 701 (RV) ± 3.7% 49% 37% 14%
Quinnipiac University[59] March 9–15, 2004 1,022 (RV) ± 3.1% 45% 29% 26%
Quinnipiac University[60] February 10–16, 2004 1,356 (RV) ± 2.7% 50% 31% 19%
Quinnipiac University[61] December 11–14, 2003 1,092 (RV) ± 3% 50% 32% 18%
Franklin & Marshall College[21] Oct 27–Nov 16, 2003 593 (RV) ± 4% 47% 25% 28%
Quinnipiac University[62] October 9–13, 2003 1,116 (RV) ± 2.9% 50% 33% 17%
Quinnipiac University[63] Jul 30–Aug 4, 2003 1,037 (RV) ± 3% 53% 29% 18%
DSCC (D)[64] June 10–12, 2003 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 53% 26% 21%

Results

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General election results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Arlen Specter (incumbent) 2,925,080 52.62%
Democratic Joe Hoeffel 2,334,126 41.99%
Constitution Jim Clymer 220,056 3.96%
Libertarian Betsy Summers 79,263 1.43%
Total votes 5,769,590 100.00%
Republican hold
Source: Election Statistics - Office of the Clerk of the House of Representatives

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

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Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

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See also

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Notes

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References

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  1. ^ a b "Democratic Short List '04". PoliticsPA. The Publius Group. 2003. Archived from the original on August 2, 2003.
  2. ^ Neri, Al (August 2003). "District historically Republican". The Insider. Archived from the original on October 13, 2007. Retrieved October 25, 2009.
  3. ^ Kennedy, John J. (2006). Pennsylvania Elections: Statewide Contests from 1950-2004. ISBN 9780761832799.
  4. ^ Kennedy, John J. (2006). Pennsylvania Elections: Statewide Contests from 1950-2004. ISBN 9780761832799.
  5. ^ Sen. Specter ekes out narrow win in Pa. primary - Politics - nbcnews.com
  6. ^ a b Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  7. ^ SurveyUSA
  8. ^ Quinnipiac University
  9. ^ the polling company, inc. (R)
  10. ^ Franklin & Marshall College
  11. ^ SurveyUSA
  12. ^ Quinnipiac University
  13. ^ SurveyUSA
  14. ^ Quinnipiac University
  15. ^ Franklin & Marshall College
  16. ^ SurveyUSA
  17. ^ a b the polling company, inc. (R)
  18. ^ Franklin & Marshall College
  19. ^ Muhlenberg College
  20. ^ p. 2
  21. ^ a b Franklin & Marshall College
  22. ^ "Pennsylvania Senate 2004, Crystal Ball, U.Va". Archived from the original on February 13, 2008. Retrieved April 30, 2009.
  23. ^ "Hoeffel trails Specter by large margin in Senate race - News". Archived from the original on May 4, 2009. Retrieved April 30, 2009.
  24. ^ "The Final Predictions". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved May 2, 2021.
  25. ^ SurveyUSA
  26. ^ a b c d e f g h Strategic Vision (R)
  27. ^ Quinnipiac University
  28. ^ Zogby International
  29. ^ Zogby International
  30. ^ Zogby International
  31. ^ Zogby International
  32. ^ Temple University
  33. ^ Zogby International
  34. ^ Quinnipiac University
  35. ^ SurveyUSA
  36. ^ Zogby International
  37. ^ Zogby International
  38. ^ Franklin & Marshall College
  39. ^ Mason-Dixon
  40. ^ Quinnipiac University
  41. ^ SurveyUSA
  42. ^ Quinnipiac University
  43. ^ SurveyUSA
  44. ^ Franklin & Marshall College
  45. ^ Mason-Dixon
  46. ^ Quinnipiac University
  47. ^ Franklin & Marshall College
  48. ^ Quinnipiac University
  49. ^ SurveyUSA
  50. ^ Pew Research
  51. ^ Quinnipiac University
  52. ^ Franklin & Marshall College
  53. ^ SurveyUSA
  54. ^ Quinnipiac University
  55. ^ Quinnipiac University
  56. ^ Neighborhood Research (C)
  57. ^ SurveyUSA
  58. ^ Quinnipiac University
  59. ^ Quinnipiac University
  60. ^ Quinnipiac University
  61. ^ Quinnipiac University
  62. ^ Quinnipiac University
  63. ^ Quinnipiac University
  64. ^ DSCC (D)
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Debates

Official campaign websites (archived)
Democrats

Republicans

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