In the United States, a film's box office gross in its second weekend of theatrical release is one of several factors used to predict overall box office performance. Most films experience a decline in box office gross in their second weekend, but a significant decline often indicates a subpar box office performance for the rest of a film's theatrical run. Some films are exceptions in that they perform better in their second weekend of release than on opening weekend.
Second-weekend drop
editDuring a film's theatrical run, its box office performance generally declines from weekend to weekend. In addition to the film's opening-weekend gross, the percentage of the change between the opening weekend and the second weekend is used as a gauge for a film's commercial success.[1] Assuming that the number of theaters stays the same, a normal drop in box office gross from the first weekend to the second would be 40%. A drop of greater than 60% indicates a weak future performance.[1] Horror films are susceptible to having large drops in the second weekend and beyond even after a strong opening weekend.[2] Chris Anderson, in his 2008 book The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business Is Selling Less of More, said twenty years prior, the average film experienced a second weekend drop of less than 30% and that the contemporary drop was now around 50%. Anderson ascribed the change to moviegoers being able to better identify mediocre and bad films through more information, both from more reviews and greater word-of-mouth.[3] Slate in 2012 also reported a progressively increasing second weekend drop over the course of the last several decades. In the 1980s, the average second weekend drop was 15.7%. The 1990s saw the drop gradually climb to 21.5%, but by 2012 this had escalated all the way up to 49.1%.[4] A lack of venues is usually not a factor as theaters have an obligation to show a film for at least two weeks.[5]
The Los Angeles Times said the second-weekend drop was seasonal in the United States. Between May and July, the country's summer season, films have more significant drops than during the rest of the year. It reported that in May 2014, three opening blockbuster films—The Amazing Spider-Man 2, Godzilla, and X-Men: Days of Future Past—all had drops of over 60% where films earlier in the 21st century rarely had drops that steep. The newspaper cited possible reasons for the drops: that the films did not "inspire long-term moviegoing", and that alternative platforms such as Redbox, Netflix, and video on demand attracted film audiences who missed a film's opening weekend.[6] The Hollywood Reporter said in 2017, "Generally speaking, a superhero film can fall 60 percent," highlighting Wonder Woman's second-weekend drop of 45% as scant compared to others in the genre.[7] Specific weekends during the year are known for poor box office and may lead to large drops, such as the first weekend of December following Thanksgiving when consumers begin shopping, and Super Bowl weekend.[8][9]
The box office website Box Office Mojo ranks the following films by biggest second weekend drops during their wide release in the United States, which means screening in at least 600 theaters. The website bases its ranking on box office performance data from 1982 onward.[10]
| Rank | Film | Year in wide release |
Opening weekend ($) |
Second weekend ($) |
Change (%) |
Theaters (second weekend) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Collide | 2017 | 1,512,824 | 173,620 | −88.5 | 1,002 |
| 2 | Undiscovered | 2005 | 676,048 | 91,748 | −86.5 | 754 |
| 3 | Slow Burn | 2007 | 778,123 | 119,150 | −84.7 | 755 |
| 4 | Jane Got a Gun | 2016 | 835,572 | 137,523 | −83.5 | 1,031 |
| 5 | Before I Go to Sleep | 2014 | 1,843,347 | 331,708 | −82.0 | 820 |
| 6 | Gigli | 2003 | 3,753,518 | 678,640 | −81.9 | 2,215 |
| 7 | Bad Moon | 1996 | 607,081 | 112,397 | −81.5 | 649 |
| 8 | Joker: Folie à Deux | 2024 | 37,678,467 | 7,054,527 | −81.3 | 4,102 |
| 9 | Return to the Blue Lagoon | 1991 | 1,277,428 | 245,814 | −80.8 | 1,222 |
| 10 | Friday the 13th | 2009 | 40,570,365 | 7,942,472 | −80.4 | 3,105 |
The 2012 family film The Oogieloves in the Big Balloon Adventure, though not in wide release, set a record for biggest second-weekend drop. It opened in 2,160 theaters and grossed $443,901 over the opening weekend. In its second weekend, it screened in 281 theaters and grossed $43,854, which was a 90.1% drop.[11][12]
Second-weekend increases and smallest drops
editAn increase in a film's box office gross in its second weekend, provided that the number of theaters did not grow substantially, is considered exceptional. For example, the 1997 film Titanic had an opening weekend gross of $28.64 million and with only a small increase in the number of theaters, its second-weekend gross (which fell immediately after Christmas) was $35.45 million, a 24% increase from the previous weekend.[1]
Box Office Mojo reported in 2018 that out of over 4,700 wide-release films that were assessed, only 208 (or around 4%) saw an increased gross in their second weekend.[13] Nearly every film to increase its gross in its second weekend benefitted from a holiday boosting attendance, with the vast majority having a second weekend falling on Christmas or New Year's, often the most-attended single week of the year; Memorial Day and Thanksgiving also boost attendance.[14][15]
The top ten are listed below:
| Rank | Film | Year in wide release |
Opening weekend ($) |
Second weekend ($) |
Change (%) |
Theaters (second weekend) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Little Women | 1994 | 2,411,247 | 6,776,403 | 181.0 | 1,574 |
| 2 | Rumor Has It | 2005 | 3,473,155 | 9,364,661 | 169.6 | 2,815 |
| 3 | One Hundred and One Dalmatians (1961) | 1985 | 2,389,226 | 5,715,836 | 139.2 | 1,180 |
| 4 | Kiss Me Goodbye | 1982 | 1,345,672 | 2,845,627 | 111.5 | 803 |
| 5 | Grumpy Old Men | 1993 | 3,874,911 | 7,488,527 | 93.3 | 1,244 |
| 6 | War Horse | 2011 | 7,515,402 | 14,422,729 | 91.9 | 2,547 |
| 7 | A Christmas Story | 1983 | 2,072,473 | 3,935,944 | 89.9 | 938 |
| 8 | All the Pretty Horses | 2000 | 1,304,971 | 2,477,053 | 89.8 | 1,593 |
| 9 | Lady and the Tramp (1955) | 1986 | 2,804,272 | 5,030,706 | 79.4 | 1,375 |
| 10 | Out of Africa | 1985 | 3,637,290 | 6,504,397 | 78.8 | 922 |
Box Office Mojo reports that 20 films (out of over 1,000 assessed) have opened in over 3,000 theaters and increased in gross in their second weekend.[16]
| Rank | Film | Year in wide release |
Opening weekend ($) |
Second weekend ($) |
Change (%) |
Theaters (second weekend) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Greatest Showman | 2017 | 8,805,843 | 15,520,732 | 76.3 | 3,316 |
| 2 | Cheaper by the Dozen 2 | 2005 | 9,309,387 | 14,486,519 | 55.6 | 3,211 |
| 3 | We Bought a Zoo | 2011 | 9,360,434 | 13,238,241 | 41.4 | 3,163 |
| 4 | Sound of Freedom | 2023 | 19,680,879 | 27,280,179 | 39 | 3,265 |
| 5 | Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle | 2017 | 36,169,328 | 50,051,364 | 38.4 | 3,765 |
| 6 | Puss in Boots: The Last Wish | 2022 | 12,429,515 | 16,815,340 | 35.3 | 4,121 |
| 7 | Mother's Day | 2016 | 8,369,184 | 11,087,076 | 32.5 | 3,141 |
| 8 | The Wild Thornberrys Movie | 2002 | 6,013,847 | 7,364,432 | 22.5 | 3,012 |
| 9 | Sing | 2016 | 35,258,145 | 42,896,330 | 21.7 | 4,029 |
| 10 | Night at the Museum | 2006 | 30,433,781 | 36,766,905 | 20.8 | 3,768 |
Among films to open in over 3,000 theaters without a holiday to benefit their second weekend, 2011's Puss in Boots posted the best hold, falling only 3%, while the 6.4% drop for 2018's Crazy Rich Asians was the best for both a live-action and adult-skewing film.[15] The following films had the strongest second weekend holds without the benefit of a holiday:[16]
| Rank | Film | Year in wide release |
Opening weekend ($) |
Second weekend ($) |
Change (%) |
Theaters (second weekend) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Puss in Boots | 2011 | 34,077,439 | 33,054,644 | −3 | 3,963 |
| 2 | Crazy Rich Asians | 2018 | 26,510,140 | 24,808,202 | −6.4 | 3,526 |
| 3 | Flushed Away | 2006 | 18,814,323 | 16,606,526 | −11.7 | 3,707 |
| 4 | The Santa Clause 3: The Escape Clause | 2006 | 19,504,038 | 16,927,004 | −13.2 | 3,458 |
| 5 | The Santa Clause 2 | 2002 | 29,008,696 | 24,734,523 | −14.7 | 3,352 |
| 6 | Argo | 2012 | 19,458,109 | 16,445,475 | −15.5 | 3,247 |
| 7 | Taken | 2009 | 24,717,037 | 20,547,346 | −16.9 | 3,184 |
| 8 | Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs | 2009 | 30,304,648 | 25,038,803 | −17.4 | 3,119 |
| 9 | The Shaggy Dog | 2006 | 16,310,058 | 13,377,363 | −18 | 3,501 |
| 10 | Smile | 2022 | 22,609,925 | 18,542,568 | −18 | 3,659 |
See also
editReferences
edit- ^ a b c Mathijs, Ernest (2006). Lord of the Rings: Popular Culture in Global Context. Wallflower Press. p. 90. ISBN 978-1-904764-82-3.
- ^ Langford, Barry (2006). Film Genre: Hollywood and Beyond. Edinburgh University Press. p. 165. ISBN 978-0-7486-1903-0.
- ^ Anderson, Chris (2008). The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business is Selling Less of More. Hyperion. p. 233. ISBN 978-1-4013-0966-4.
- ^ Pagels, Jim (July 23, 2012). "Why Batman Had No Competition at the Box Office". Slate. Retrieved June 4, 2014.
- ^ Fahey, Mark (2015-11-17). "Why movies are sometimes here and gone in theaters". CNBC. Retrieved 2022-01-07.
- ^ Zeitchik, Steven (June 3, 2014). "What's causing sales for recent big films to drop sharply after their first weekend?". Los Angeles Times. Retrieved June 4, 2014.
- ^ McClintock, Pamela (June 10, 2017). "Weekend Box Office: 'The Mummy' Entombed With $32M U.S. Debut". The Hollywood Reporter. Retrieved June 12, 2017.
- ^ "Weekend Box Office Forecast: Encanto and Ghostbusters: Afterlife to Lead Post-Thanksgiving Lull; Does Christmas with The Chosen Have Sleeper Potential?". Boxoffice. 2021-12-02. Retrieved 2022-01-11.
- ^ "Weekend Box Office Forecast: The Little Things & Holdovers to Remain In Charge Over Super Bowl Weekend". Boxoffice. 2021-02-04. Retrieved 2022-01-11.
- ^ "Biggest Second Weekend Drops". Box Office Mojo. Retrieved June 18, 2013.
- ^ Cunningham, Todd (September 10, 2012). "'Oogieloves' Sets Another Box Office Record: Biggest 2nd-Week Drop". The Wrap. The Wrap News Inc. Retrieved June 14, 2013.
- ^ "Oogieloves in the Big Balloon Adventure". Box Office Mojo. Retrieved June 14, 2013.
- ^ "Smallest Second Weekend Drops – Wide Releases 600 ". Box Office Mojo. Retrieved December 13, 2018.
- ^ Whitten, Sarah (2019-12-23). "This is the most important week of the year for movie theater owners". CNBC. Retrieved 2022-01-07.
- ^ a b Mendelson, Scott. "Box Office: 'Crazy Rich Asians' Takes Unprecedented Drop In Its Second Weekend". Forbes. Retrieved 2022-01-07.
- ^ a b "Smallest Second Weekend Drops – Super Saturated 3,000 ". Box Office Mojo. Retrieved December 13, 2018.