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Frontier market

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A frontier market is a term for a type of developing country's market economy which is more developed than a least developed country's, but too small, risky, or illiquid to be generally classified as an emerging market economy. The term is an economic term which was coined by International Finance Corporation’s Farida Khambata in 1992. The term is commonly used[1] to describe the equity markets of the smaller and less accessible, but still "investable" countries of the developing world. The frontier, or pre-emerging equity markets are typically pursued by investors seeking high, long-run return potential as well as low correlations with other markets.[2] Some frontier market countries were emerging markets in the past, but have regressed to frontier status.[3][4]

Terminology

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The term began use when the IFC Emerging Markets Database (EMDB), led by Farida Khambata, began publishing data on smaller markets in 1992.[5] Khambata coined the term “Frontier Markets” for this set of indices. Standard and Poor's bought EMDB from IFC in 1999 and in October 2007, S&P launched the first investable index, the Select Frontier Index (30 of the largest companies from 11 countries) and the Extended Frontier Index (150 companies from 27 countries).[6] Subsequently, MSCI began a rival frontier market index,[7] and in early 2008, Deutsche Bank launched the first frontier market exchange-traded fund, on the London Stock Exchange.[8] Frontier markets are a sub-set of emerging markets, which have market capitalizations that are small and/or low annual turnover and/or market restrictions unsuitable for inclusion in the larger EM indexes but nonetheless "demonstrate a relative openness to and accessibility for foreign investors" and are not under "extreme economic and political instability."[7]

Members could be considered to fall roughly into three groups:

  • Small countries of relatively high development level (such as Estonia) that are too small to be considered emerging markets,
  • Countries with investment restrictions that have begun to loosen as of the mid 2000s (such as the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council)
  • Countries at a lower development level than the existing "mainstream" emerging markets (such as Kenya or Vietnam).[9]

The term pre-emerging markets is sometimes used as a synonym for "frontier markets", emphasizing the expectation that they will eventually "graduate" to "emerging market" status.[10]

A 2021 analysis proposes the term emerged to describe markets, economies, or countries that have graduated from emerging market status, but have not yet reached the level equivalent to developed countries.[11]

Investment case

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Frontier markets have lower market capitalization and liquidity than the more developed, "traditional" emerging markets. The frontier equity markets are typically pursued by investors seeking high, long term returns and low correlations with other markets.[12][13][14]

The implication of a country being labeled as Frontier is that, over time, the market will become more liquid and exhibit similar risk and return characteristics as the larger, more liquid emerging markets.

According to frontier market investors, frontier assets would actually diversify and reduce risk, which contradicts the general notion that risk would be added by including those markets.[15]

Those who have a focus on frontier markets have different views on what the future holds for the inter-correlation of countries within the asset class. While they share some economics characteristics such as young, increasing educated populations, the individual economies face different internal and external forces. Funds invest to find returns in countries that have increasing trends in domestic consumption but see the overall growth drivers for each country as being different.[16][17] This investment thesis holds water as it is unlikely that a manufacturing based economy, such as Bangladesh, would respond in the same way to external shocks as an island nation where a large proportion of the economy is linked to tourism, such as Sri Lanka.

There are also other non managed ways to gain exposure to these markets that are more generic such as investing in frontier market indices such as MSCI Frontier Index that only invest in large liquid stocks.

Frontier markets list

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A number of organisations place countries into their Frontier market indices.

Country FTSE[18] MSCI[19] S&P[20] Russell[21]
  Argentina Frontier Frontier Frontier Frontier
  Bahrain Frontier Frontier Frontier Frontier
  Bangladesh Frontier Frontier Frontier Frontier
  Benin not rated Frontier[a] not rated not rated
  Bosnia and Herzegovina not rated Frontier not rated Frontier
  Botswana Frontier Frontier Frontier Frontier
  Bulgaria Frontier Frontier Frontier Frontier
  Burkina Faso not rated Frontier[a] not rated not rated
  Côte d'Ivoire Frontier Frontier[a] Frontier Frontier
  Croatia Frontier Frontier Frontier Frontier
  Cyprus Frontier not rated Frontier Frontier
  Ecuador not rated not rated Frontier not rated
  Estonia Frontier Frontier Frontier Frontier
  Egypt Secondary emerging Emerging Emerging Frontier
  Gabon not rated not rated not rated Frontier
  Ghana Frontier Frontier Frontier Frontier
  Guinea-Bissau not rated Frontier[a] not rated not rated
  Jamaica not rated Frontier Frontier Frontier
  Jordan Frontier Frontier Frontier Frontier
  Kazakhstan Frontier Frontier Frontier Frontier
  Kenya Frontier Frontier Frontier Frontier
  Kuwait Secondary emerging Frontier Frontier Frontier
  Latvia Frontier not rated Frontier Emerging
  Lebanon not rated Frontier Frontier not rated
  Lithuania Frontier Frontier Frontier Frontier
  Mali not rated Frontier[a] not rated not rated
  Malta Frontier not rated not rated Frontier
  Mauritius Frontier Frontier Frontier Frontier
  Morocco Frontier Frontier Frontier Emerging
  Namibia not rated not rated Frontier Frontier
  Niger not rated Frontier[a] not rated not rated
  Nigeria Frontier Frontier Frontier Frontier
  North Macedonia Frontier not rated not rated not rated
  Oman Frontier Frontier Frontier Frontier
  Pakistan Secondary emerging Frontier Frontier Frontier
  Panama not rated Frontier Frontier not rated
  Papua New Guinea not rated not rated not rated Frontier
  Qatar Secondary emerging Emerging Emerging Frontier
  Romania Secondary emerging Frontier Frontier Frontier
  Senegal not rated Frontier[a] not rated Frontier
  Serbia Frontier Frontier not rated Frontier
  Slovakia Frontier not rated Frontier Frontier
  Slovenia Frontier Frontier Frontier Frontier
  Sri Lanka Frontier Frontier Frontier Frontier
  Tanzania not rated not rated not rated Frontier
  Togo not rated Frontier[a] not rated not rated
  Trinidad and Tobago not rated Frontier Frontier Frontier
  Tunisia Frontier Frontier Frontier Frontier
  Ukraine not rated Frontier not rated Frontier
  Vietnam Frontier Frontier Frontier Frontier
  Zambia not rated not rated Frontier Frontier
  1. ^ a b c d e f g h Included in MSCI frontier markets category as part of the West African Economic and Monetary Union

Past changes

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Colombia was promoted to Emerging market by Standard & Poors effective September 19, 2011.[22] There have been a number of other changes and updates over the years.

See also

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References

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  1. ^ Muller, Chris (March 24, 2023). "How to Start Investing: A Complete Guide for Beginners - Doughroller". www.doughroller.net.
  2. ^ Salamat, Rishaad. "Investing in Cambodia, Haiti, Bangladesh, Laos". Bloomberg. Retrieved 21 May 2012.
  3. ^ MarketWatch, Polya Lesova. "MSCI will downgrade Argentina to frontier market". MarketWatch.
  4. ^ "MSCI reclassifies stocks in emerging, frontier market indexes | Reuters". Reuters. 7 November 2013.
  5. ^ "IFC History - Decade 4". IFC. Retrieved 12 February 2021.
  6. ^ "S&P launches first investable index for frontier equity markets". Investment Executive. 22 October 2007. Retrieved 12 February 2021.
  7. ^ a b "MSCI Frontier Markets Indices" (PDF) (Press release). MSCI Barra. 2007-12-18.
  8. ^ Coleman, Murray (2008-02-14). "First Frontiers ETFs Open Overseas". Index Universe. Archived from the original on 2008-07-24. Retrieved 2014-06-17.
  9. ^ Kirchenbauer, Reid (2017-03-25). "Investing in Vietnam: The Ultimate Guide". InvestAsian.
  10. ^ "What are emerging markets?". Barclays. 2017-04-11.
  11. ^ Lee, Eun Su; Liu, Wei; Yang, Jing Yu (2021-09-23). "Neither developed nor emerging: Dual paths for outward FDI and home country innovation in emerged market MNCs". International Business Review. 32 (2): 101925. doi:10.1016/j.ibusrev.2021.101925. ISSN 0969-5931. S2CID 244268711.
  12. ^ Guerrero, Tomás (March 2013) Frontier Markets: A World of Opportunities
  13. ^ Guerrero, Tomás (September 2013) Frontier Markets: Old Acquaintances, New Opportunities
  14. ^ Guerrero, Tomás (May 2014). "Frontier Markets: More profitable, less volatile". Financial Times.
  15. ^ According to Marek Ondraschek, Founder of Zurich-based ALNUA Investment Managers and former CEO & CIO of Swiss Life Asset in a video interview.
  16. ^ "Tapping into frontier markets amid outflows". 20 August 2013.
  17. ^ Berger, Dave; Pukthuanthong, Kuntara; Jimmy Yang, J. (2011). "International diversification with frontier markets". Journal of Financial Economics. 101: 227–242. doi:10.1016/j.jfineco.2011.02.009.
  18. ^ "FTSE classification of equity markets September 2018" (PDF). FTSE Russell. Retrieved 30 October 2018.
  19. ^ "Market cap indexes - MSCI". Retrieved 31 October 2018.
  20. ^ "S&P Dow Jones Indices' 2018 Country Classification Consultation" (PDF). S&P Dow Jones Indices. spice-indices.com. 13 June 2018. Archived from the original (PDF) on 9 March 2019. Retrieved 9 March 2019.
  21. ^ "Global Guidebook: Country Classifications" (PDF). Russell Indexes. March 2015. Archived from the original (PDF) on 19 February 2018. Retrieved 30 October 2018.
  22. ^ "Home | S&P Global Ratings".
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