Markus Müller

🚀 Since the start of 2023, NVIDIA's stock has surged nearly 900% at its peak, driven by the unprecedented hype around AI. But where are we now in the GARTNER Hype Cycle? 🤔 Have we reached the "peak of inflated expectations"? Is an AI bubble looming, or worse—ready to burst? In my latest blog post, I explore these critical questions. While I expect a moderate correction, I don't foresee any major disruptions before 2025. Read more in my blogpost! 📈 Here'e some excerpts: The investments in AI are indeed enormous: Especially the big tech players, but also other companies, will spend over 1 trillion dollars (!!) on AI investments in the coming years (...) These costs are contrasted by relatively weak business models. The WOW effect users experience when generating texts, images, and music doesn’t translate equally into economic benefits for many providers. (...) In the recently published post AI’s $600B Question (06/20/2024) the author David Cahn of Sequoia Capital calculated that AI companies would need to generate $600 billion in revenue, to justify the current level of investment in data centers in order to put the current gap between investments and revenues into perspective. (...) However, the benefits (and commercial potential) of AI can already be seen in numerous areas. the AI scene is making major and minor progress throughout (...) My conclusion: At the beginning of August, META CEO Zuckerberg declared: “At this point in time, I would rather risk building up more AI computing capacity than necessary than be late”. It is the reality that new technologies are inherently unpredictable by their nature. No amount of forecasting or numerical analysis in the 1990s could have drawn a direct line from the early days of the Internet to applications such as Uber and Instagram. It is therefore not irrational to maintain high expectations of AI technology. And the following applies to this technology: It is a technology with a true game-changer character; both for the economic world and for geopolitics. No country of relevance can and does not want to afford to drop out of this technology race (or: marathon) at the moment: not China, not the USA, and not even Europe (with promising players such as Mistral and Aleph Alpha in the LLM sector). I have a bet with a colleague that the AI hype will last at least until Christmas this year (I’m standing by this bet), and I’m quite confident that I’ll win. #artificialintelligence #ai #technology #innovation #alphabet #meta #google #openai #ibm #newsletter #microsoft #future #news #sequoia #goldmansachs #TechTrends #Investment #GartnerHypeCycle Rico Knapper Daniel Poodratchi Kevin Engelke Andreas Kröber Melahat Elis Rohit Suseelan

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