Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables

Read our Power & Renewables recap newsletter now! Download our expert's presentations from this year's World #Hydrogen Summit, read our US #solar market insight Q2 2024 report and dive into the current dynamics of volume and price within the GoO market 👇

What is driving elevated prices in #PJM? (hint: it's not the heat) Since earlier this month, PJM's most liquid hub, West Hub, has experienced elevated prices (>$400 on 7/16). The cause as determine by Wood Mackenzie's PJM analyst team is in part due to an emergency Conastone 500 transformer outage, located between Baltimore and Harford county, Maryland, driving congestion during some of the hottest days over the past 5 years. The outage which began on July 2nd, was initially scheduled to return to service over the evening on July 6th, has now been extended to December 31st. Such a long outage, in a critical area of PJM, likely indicates serious damage to the substation in the form of a fault or fire. With limited information available, Wood Mackenzie analysts question how realistic this timeline will be. Regardless of the exact timing of the return to service, the expectation is for this outage to be a long term concern for PJM and market stakeholders. Wood Mackenzie’s proprietary CongestionIQ and Lens #Power platforms not only identified this outage, but also pinpointed trading nodes that have seen drastic swings in pricing as a result. For more information, please visit: https://okt.to/ShL27X

Last week, Alex Whitworth, Vice President and Head of Power and Renewables Research at Wood Mackenzie, delivered a speech at the Gas Turbine Focus conference in Chengdu, China. During his address, Alex shed light on the crucial role of gas inpower generation and its competitiveness in terms of cost when compared to renewablenergy sources. The Asia Pacific region is currently experiencing a significant boom in power investments, with an estimated expenditure of nearly US$4 trillion on generation assets anticipated within the next decade. Notably, investment in gas power is expected to surpass US$250 billion over the same period, showcasing a substantial increase of over 50% compared to the previous decade. This surge in investment reflects the continued strength and growth of gas power capacity additions, projected to range between 25-40 GW per year until 2050. While the gas share of global power generation reached its peak at 24% in 2020, forecasts indicate a decline to 13% by 2050. However, despite this overall decrease, the Asia Pacific region is set to add an impressive 2,631 GW of capacity in the next five years, with 200 GW specifically dedicated to gas power. Find out more about details about APAC gas power here: https://okt.to/OJvIqo #Gas #RenewableEnergy

The solar industry is entering a more measured, mature phase, establishing itself not just as a growing renewable technology, but as a cornerstone of the global energy transition. Wood Mackenzie help you track the changes in the supply chain, and emerging regional variability and complexities. Our interconnected global value chain coverage enables you to understand the factors shaping solar markets. We identify and evaluate new areas of growth so you and your organisation can seize the biggest opportunities. Informed decision-making is now more crucial than ever. Learn more: https://okt.to/qXoCBn Be WoodMac Sure.

Global power demand is set to rise significantly as the #energytransition progresses, with #electricvehicles, decarbonised heating, #AI processing and green #hydrogen all contributing strongly. But can power generation keep up, and what are the implications for supply and prices for different regions? In our regional power Strategic Planning Outlooks, our expert local analysts explore the road ahead for power markets across Asia Pacific, North America and Europe. We explore APAC's upcoming US$4 trillion investment boom, large load growth in the US, and how Europe is rethinking the pace of transition in pursuit of #netzero. Find out more: https://okt.to/D43t1J

The Northeast heat wave led to some excitement in #ISO New England! During the heat wave three weeks ago, temperatures reached upper-90-degrees along the east coast pushing demand to peak at 23.3 GWs in ISO New England (ISO-NE) the highest demand day so far this year. On Tuesday (6/18), the ISO called a Capacity Scarcity Condition (CSC) due to a generator tripping offline removing ~600 MWs of capacity from the generation stack. This event was further exacerbated by temperature related redeclarations, a generator experiencing mechanical issues during startup attempts, and several fast-start resources failing to come online. This resulted in 5- minute Real-Time (RT) prices reaching almost $2,000/MWh, and hourly prices exceeding $750/MWh at Mass Hub. As these events were unfolding, Wood Mackenzie’s ISO-NE team identified the exact unit that tripped, William F Wyman, on our PowerRT platform highlighted below. The team was also able to determine that the same unit had cleared the following day, in the Day-Ahead Market (DAM), indicating that RT prices would again be at risk on Wednesday (6/19), although demand underperformance ended up limiting RT price volatility. These real-time events led to extremely high DAM prices through the remainder of the week. The market became conservative and procured more capacity than forecasted demand around critical evening peak hours. Counterintuitively, RT market prices were very low as the week wrapped up because of the additional capacity procured and the extreme weather pattern breaking apart. In our Summer 2024 ISO-NE Outlook, July peak demand was forecast at 24.2 GW, an increase of 1 GW compared to the peak three weeks ago. If this forecast verifies, the pattern of over procuring capacity in the DAM, leading to weaker RT prices could continue… barring any more generation tripping offline. Find out more details on our insights and offerings: https://okt.to/HdUqTt

At this year’s Lisbon Energy Summit & Exhibition 2024, industry experts highlighted the need for industry and governments to focus on progress over perfection to tackle #decarbonisation. As the global #energytransition accelerates, collaborative investment, renewables deployment and energy security are high on the agenda to fuelling a low-carbon future. Read on for some of the key takeaways we gathered from top speakers at the exhibition: https://okt.to/NEsGt0

💡 Read our Power & Renewables recap newsletter for our key takeaways from the Lisbon Energy Summit and the Solar & Energy Storage Summit, and learn about #hydrogen costs in 2024 👇

When costs rise in your power investments, you need an intelligence partner to help you understand how it will impact you. Our global coverage of entire supply chain costs and our integrated power market data make it easier to understand this rapidly evolving energy landscape. With long-term price outlooks to 2050, and data assessing prices of 400m pieces of equipment from 1.3m suppliers, we have the breadth and depth of knowledge that gives you clarity and, ultimately, confidence. Get in touch today to find out more. Be WoodMac Sure. https://okt.to/wrqzTV

Hydrogen’s key problem in 2024 is that it’s simply too expensive to produce and transport. So, can #hydrogen costs be brought down in the long term? We recently presented a series of webinars based on data and analytics from our Lens Hydrogen platform, looking at ongoing cost trends, specific project economics and the economics of transportation and trade in the hydrogen sector. Read our latest article for a breakdown of some of our key findings, including the opportunities to bring down hydrogen costs in future: https://okt.to/q1xNVR