I compare different predictions for the group stage of the World Cup 2018. My function are based on the one from Claus Ekstrøm which can be found here.
The main result is, taht if you want a good prediction, you should probaly consider using the ELO ratings. For more Detail see our blog post about it here
The plot down below shows the result of 100 siulations with the following point system:
| trend | goal difference | result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Victory | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| Draw | 2 | - | 4 |
