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2006 United States Senate election in Montana

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2006 United States Senate election in Montana
← 2000 November 7, 2006 2012 ⊟
 
Nominee Jon Tester Conrad Burns
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 199,845 196,283
Percentage 49.16% 48.29%
County results
Tester:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Burns:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
U.S. senator before election

Conrad Burns
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Jon Tester
Democratic

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The 2006 United States Senate election in Montana was held November 7, 2006. The filing deadline was March 23; the primary was held June 6. Incumbent Republican Senator Conrad Burns ran for re-election to a fourth term, but lost to Democrat Jon Tester by a margin of 0.87%, or 3,562 votes out of 406,505 cast. This made the election the second-closest race of the 2006 Senate election cycle, behind only the election in Virginia.

Background

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Burns was first elected as a United States Senator from Montana in 1988, when he defeated Democratic incumbent John Melcher in a close race, 52% to 48%. Burns was re-elected 62.4% to 37.6%, over Jack Mudd in the Republican Revolution year of 1994. In 2000, Burns faced the well-financed Brian Schweitzer whom he beat 50.6% to 47.2%.

In 2000, George W. Bush carried Montana 58% to 33% in the race for president, but Burns won by 3.4%. Since the direct election of Senators began in 1913, Burns is only the second Republican Montana has elected to the U.S. Senate. Also, for thirty-two straight years, 1952 to 1984, Montana elected only Democratic Senators.

Burns' involvement in the Jack Abramoff scandal made him vulnerable.[1] A SurveyUSA poll released in March 2006 found that 38% of Montanans approved of him, while 52% disapproved of him.[2] Polls against leading Democratic candidates had him below his challengers.[3]

Democratic primary

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Candidates

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Campaign

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On May 31, 2006, Richards, citing the closeness of the race, and his own position (third) in the polls, withdrew from the race, and threw his support to Tester.[4] Morrison started off strong in the race for the Democratic nomination for Senator, collecting $1.05 million as of the start of 2006, including $409,241 in the last three months of 2005.[5] but Morrison's advantages in fundraising and name identification did not translate into a lead in the polls.[6] Later, the race was called a "deadlock,"[7] but Tester continued to gather momentum.

Results

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Democratic primary results[8]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Jon Tester 65,757 60.77
Democratic John Morrison 38,394 35.48
Democratic Paul Richards 1,636 1.51
Democratic Robert Candee 1,471 1.36
Democratic Kenneth Marcure 940 0.87
Total votes 108,198 100.00

Republican primary

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Candidates

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Results

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Republican primary results[8]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Conrad Burns (incumbent) 70,434 72.26
Republican Bob Keenan 21,754 22.32
Republican Bob Kelleher 4,082 4.19
Republican Daniel Loyd Neste Huffman 1,203 1.23
Total votes 97,473 100.00

General election

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Candidates

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Campaign

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The race was expected to be close, due to Burns' narrow margin of victory in 2000, when he significantly underperformed Republican presidential nominee George W. Bush, and a political scandal that he had been involved in. Republican incumbents everywhere were facing more challenging races in 2006 due to the waning popularity of the Republican-controlled Congress and the administration of President George W. Bush. In July 2006, the Rasmussen report viewed Burns as the "second most vulnerable Senator seeking re-election this year", after Pennsylvania's Rick Santorum.[9]

Senator Conrad Burns of Montana faced a strong challenge from Brian Schweitzer in 2000, being re-elected by 3.4% in a state that went for Bush twice by margins of over 20%.[10][11] This, combined with the increasing strength of the state Democratic party[12] and accusations of ethical issues related to the Jack Abramoff scandal,[13] made this a highly competitive race.

On July 27, Burns was forced to apologize after he confronted out of state firefighters who were preparing to leave Montana after helping contain a summer forest fire and directly questioned their competence and skill, remarks for which he was strongly criticized.[14]

On August 31, in a letter faxed to the office of Montana governor Brian Schweitzer, Burns urged the governor, a Democrat, to declare a fire state of emergency and activate the Montana Army National Guard for firefighting. Schweitzer had already declared such a state of emergency on July 11 — thus, activating the Montana Army National Guard. He issued a second declaration on August 11. A Burns spokesman said the senator was "pretty sure" Schweitzer had already issued such a disaster declaration, but just wanted to make sure. "The genesis of the letter was just to make sure that all the bases were covered," Pendleton said. "This is not a political football. It’s just a cover-the-bases letter and certainly casts no aspersions on the governor."[15]

Debates

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Endorsements

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Jon Tester (D)
Individuals

Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[17] Tossup November 6, 2006
Sabato's Crystal Ball[18] Lean D (flip) November 6, 2006
Rothenberg Political Report[19] Lean D (flip) November 6, 2006
Real Clear Politics[20] Tossup November 6, 2006

Polling

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Source Date Jon
Tester (D) 		Conrad
Burns (R) 		Stan
Jones (L)
Mason Dixon[21] May 2005 26% 50%
Rasmussen[22] September 8, 2005 38% 51%
Mason Dixon[21][permanent dead link‍] December 24, 2005 35% 49%
Rasmussen[23] January 11, 2006 45% 45%
Rasmussen[24] February 13, 2006 46% 46%
Rasmussen[25] March 20, 2006 46% 43%
Rasmussen[26] April 15, 2006 44% 47%
Ayres McHenry & Associates (R)[27] May 2, 2006 48% 42%
Rasmussen[28] May 16, 2006 48% 44%
Mason Dixon[29] May 28, 2006 45% 42%
Lake Research (D)[30] June 20–26, 2006 43% 42%
Rasmussen[31] July 11, 2006 50% 43%
Rasmussen[32] August 10, 2006 47% 47%
Lake Research (D)[33] August 10, 2006 44% 37%
Gallup[34] September 5, 2006 48% 45%
Rasmussen[35] September 13, 2006 52% 43%
Rasmussen[36] September 20, 2006 50% 43%
Mason-Dixon[37] October 1, 2006 47% 40% 3%
Reuters/Zogby[38] October 5, 2006 46% 42%
Rasmussen[39] October 11, 2006 49% 42%
Rasmussen[40] October 18, 2006 48% 46%
Montana State University-Billings[41] October 19, 2006 46% 35%
Mason-Dixon/McClatchy-MSNBC[42] October 24, 2006 46% 43%
Harstad Strategic (D)[43] October 25, 2006 48% 42%
Rasmussen[44] October 29, 2006 51% 47%
Reuters/Zogby[45] October 31, 2006 47% 46% 2%
Mason-Dixon/MSNBC-McClatchy[46] November 3, 2006 47% 47% 1%
Rasmussen[47] November 3, 2006 50% 46%
USA Today/Gallup[48] November 4, 2006 50% 41%
Rasmussen[49] November 4, 2006 50% 48%
OnPoint Polling and Research[50] November 6, 2006 49% 44%

Results

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Tester narrowly defeated Burns on election day by just over 3,000 votes. Libertarian candidate Jones received over 10,000 votes, greater than Tester's margin of victory. Due to errors with polling machines, the Montana count was delayed well into Wednesday, November 8. The race was too close to call throughout the night and many pundits predicted the need for a recount. After a very close election, on November 9, incumbent Conrad Burns conceded defeat.[51]

Just before 11:00 AM (MST) on November 8, Jon Tester was declared Senator-elect for Montana in USA Today.[52] At 2:27 PM EST on November 8, CNN projected that Jon Tester would win the race.[53]

Under Montana law, if the margin of defeat is more than 0.25% but less than 0.5%, the losing candidate can request a recount if they pay for it themselves.[54] However, this election did not qualify for a recount because the margin was larger than 0.5%. Burns conceded the race on November 9 and congratulated Tester on his victory.[55]

2006 United States Senate election in Montana[56]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Jon Tester 199,845 49.16% 1.92%
Republican Conrad Burns (incumbent) 196,283 48.29% −2.27%
Libertarian Stan Jones 10,377 2.55% N/A
Total votes 406,505 100.00% N/A
Democratic gain from Republican

County results

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Source[57]

Jon Tester
Democratic 		Conrad Burns
Republican 		Stan Jones
Libertarian 		Margin Total
County Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes
Beaverhead 1,376 34.14% 2,552 63.31% 103 2.56% 1,176 29.17% 4,031
Big Horn 2,999 64.72% 1,551 33.47% 84 1.81% 1,448 31.25% 4,634
Blaine 1,390 51.90% 1,226 45.78% 62 2.32% 164 6.12% 2,678
Broadwater 825 34.93% 1,451 61.43% 86 3.64% 626 26.50% 2,362
Carbon 2,247 45.92% 2,510 51.30% 136 2.78% 263 5.38% 4,893
Carter 98 14.71% 554 83.18% 14 2.10% 456 68.47% 666
Cascade 14,947 49.37% 14,789 48.85% 540 1.78% 158 0.52% 30,276
Chouteau 1,491 51.86% 1,345 46.78% 39 1.36% 146 5.08% 2,875
Custer 1,991 42.36% 2,581 54.91% 128 2.72% 590 12.55% 4,700
Daniels 424 40.77% 863 57.12% 22 2.12% 170 16.35% 1,040
Dawson 1,595 40.31% 2,247 56.79% 115 2.91% 652 16.48% 3,957
Deer Lodge 3,211 72.63% 1,096 24.79% 114 2.58% 2,115 47.84% 4,421
Fallon 347 26.31% 951 72.10% 21 1.59% 604 45.79% 1,319
Fergus 1,985 35.25% 3,474 61.68% 173 3.07% 1,489 26.44% 5,632
Flathead 13,276 40.24% 18,511 56.10% 1,209 3.66% 5,235 15.87% 32,996
Gallatin 16,511 48.67% 16,693 49.21% 720 2.12% 182 0.54% 33,924
Garfield 98 16.58% 483 81.73% 10 1.69% 385 65.14% 591
Glacier 2,748 62.37% 1,564 35.50% 94 2.13% 1,184 26.87% 4,406
Golden Valley 181 37.24% 298 61.32% 7 1.44% 117 24.07% 486
Granite 863 39.13% 862 56.79% 62 4.08% 268 17.65% 1,518
Hill 3,411 58.33% 2,320 39.67% 117 2.00% 1,091 18.66% 5,848
Jefferson 2,415 45.76% 2,715 51.44% 148 2.80% 300 5.68% 5,278
Judith Basin 377 31.63% 785 65.86% 30 2.52% 408 34.23% 1,192
Lake 5,618 48.81% 5,480 47.61% 413 3.59% 138 1.20% 11,511
Lewis and Clark 14,921 54.74% 11,734 43.05% 604 2.22% 3,187 11.69% 27,259
Liberty 401 39.66% 596 58.95% 14 1.38% 195 19.29% 1,011
Lincoln 2,860 39.17% 4,105 56.23% 336 4.60% 1,245 17.05% 7,301
Madison 1,224 33.68% 2,311 63.59% 99 2.72% 1,087 29.91% 3,634
McCone 394 37.88% 624 60.00% 22 2.12% 230 22.12% 1,040
Meagher 272 32.19% 552 65.33% 21 2.49% 280 33.14% 845
Mineral 796 48.98% 779 47.94% 50 3.08% 17 1.05% 1,625
Missoula 29,327 63.92% 15,610 34.02% 942 2.05% 13,717 29.90% 45,879
Musselshell 670 31.16% 1,382 64.28% 98 4.56% 712 33.12% 2,150
Park 3,731 50.60% 3,441 46.67% 201 2.73% 290 3.93% 7,373
Petroleum 74 29.43% 180 67.92% 11 4.15% 106 40.00% 265
Phillips 559 28.18% 1,366 68.85% 59 2.97% 807 40.68% 1,984
Pondera 1,080 41.08% 1,494 56.83% 55 2.09% 414 15.75% 2,629
Powder River 248 24.55% 734 72.67% 28 2.77% 486 48.12% 1,010
Powell 1,052 40.48% 1,454 55.94% 93 3.58% 402 15.47% 2,599
Prairie 213 31.09% 455 66.42% 17 2.48% 242 35.33% 685
Ravalli 7,906 42.41% 10,273 55.11% 462 2.48% 2,367 12.70% 18,641
Richland 1,354 35.22% 2,381 61.94% 109 2.84% 1,027 26.72% 3,844
Roosevelt 2,203 57.47% 1,573 41.04% 57 1.49% 630 16.44% 3,833
Rosebud 1,895 55.31% 1,425 32.15% 106 3.09% 470 13.72% 3,426
Sanders 2,165 43.53% 2,575 51.77% 234 4.70% 410 8.24% 4,974
Sheridan 988 51.43% 887 46.17% 46 2.39% 101 5.26% 1,921
Silver Bow 9,500 66.69% 4,394 30.85% 351 2.46% 5,106 35.84% 14,245
Stillwater 1,556 39.28% 2,262 57.11% 143 3.61% 706 17.82% 3,961
Sweet Grass 563 32.39% 1,115 64.15% 60 3.45% 552 31.76% 1,738
Teton 1,252 40.80% 1,755 57.18% 62 2.02% 503 16.39% 3,069
Toole 759 37.52% 1,195 59.07% 69 3.41% 436 21.55% 2,023
Treasure 161 36.93% 260 59.63% 15 3.44% 99 22.71% 436
Valley 1,550 43.90% 1,893 53.61% 88 2.49% 343 9,71% 3,531
Wheatland 327 38.47% 498 58.59% 25 2.94% 171 20.12% 850
Wibaux 165 33.81% 317 64.96% 6 1.23% 152 31.15% 488
Yellowstone 27,981 47.77% 29,203 49.85% 1,394 2.38% 1,222 2.09% 58,578

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

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See also

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References

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  1. ^ Welna, David (June 5, 2006). "Montana's Sen. Burns Faces Tough Test This Fall". NPR. Retrieved June 1, 2024.
  2. ^ "SurveyUSA News Poll #8541". www.surveyusa.com. Retrieved April 8, 2023.
  3. ^ "2006 Senate RealClearPolitics Poll Averages | RealClearPolitics". www.realclearpolitics.com. Retrieved June 1, 2024.
  4. ^ "BillingsGazette.com :: Richards: Tester is best choice". Archived from the original on June 2, 2006. Retrieved June 1, 2006.
  5. ^ "BillingsGazette.com :: Burns' fundraising nears $5 million; Morrison's hits $1 million". Retrieved April 8, 2023.[permanent dead link‍]
  6. ^ Horrigan, Marie (May 31, 2006). "MT Senate: Race to Take On Embattled Burns Nears Finish". Archived from the original on August 27, 2006. Retrieved June 7, 2006.
  7. ^ Johnson, Charles S. (May 28, 2006). "Tester, Morrison deadlocked". Helena Independent Record. Retrieved April 8, 2023.
  8. ^ a b "2006 Statewide Primary Canvass - June 6, 2006 compiled by Secretary Of State Brad Johnson" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on January 12, 2011. Retrieved April 22, 2011.
  9. ^ "Rasmussen Reports: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a mid-term election". Archived from the original on July 13, 2006. Retrieved July 11, 2006.
  10. ^ "2000 Election Statistics". clerk.house.gov. Retrieved June 1, 2024.
  11. ^ "2000 Presidential General Election Results - Montana". U.S. Election Atlas. June 1, 2024. Retrieved June 1, 2024.
  12. ^ Saad, Lydia (June 28, 2006). "Voters Seem Ready for a Change of Scenery in Congress" (PDF). astrid-online.it. Retrieved June 1, 2024.
  13. ^ Ydstie, John (March 27, 2006). "Sen. Burns Scrutinized for Earmark Tied to Abramoff". NPR. Retrieved June 1, 2024.
  14. ^ "Conrad Burns Issues Apology for Altercation with Firefighters". New West Network. Missoula. Archived from the original on December 26, 2006. Retrieved August 3, 2006.
  15. ^ McKee, Jennifer (September 1, 2006). "Burns urges Schweitzer to take steps already taken". Helena Independent Record. Retrieved April 8, 2023.
  16. ^ "Jon Tester (Senate - MT) | WesPAC". November 4, 2006. Archived from the original on November 4, 2006. Retrieved April 8, 2023.
  17. ^ "2006 Senate Race Ratings for November 6, 2006" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Archived from the original (PDF) on June 5, 2008. Retrieved September 30, 2021.
  18. ^ "Election Eve 2006: The Final Predictions". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved June 25, 2021.
  19. ^ "2006 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved June 25, 2021.
  20. ^ "Election 2006". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved June 25, 2021.
  21. ^ a b Mason Dixon [permanent dead link‍]
  22. ^ Rasmussen Archived October 31, 2005, at the Wayback Machine
  23. ^ Rasmussen
  24. ^ Rasmussen
  25. ^ Rasmussen
  26. ^ Rasmussen
  27. ^ Ayres McHenry & Associates (R)
  28. ^ Rasmussen
  29. ^ Mason Dixon
  30. ^ Lake Research (D)
  31. ^ Rasmussen
  32. ^ Rasmussen
  33. ^ Lake Research (D)
  34. ^ Gallup
  35. ^ Rasmussen
  36. ^ Rasmussen
  37. ^ Mason-Dixon [permanent dead link‍]
  38. ^ Reuters/Zogby
  39. ^ Rasmussen
  40. ^ Rasmussen
  41. ^ Montana State University-Billings Archived October 27, 2006, at the Wayback Machine
  42. ^ Mason-Dixon/McClatchy-MSNBC
  43. ^ Harstad Strategic (D)
  44. ^ Rasmussen Archived November 1, 2006, at the Wayback Machine
  45. ^ Reuters/Zogby
  46. ^ Mason-Dixon/MSNBC-McClatchy
  47. ^ Rasmussen Archived November 14, 2006, at the Wayback Machine
  48. ^ USA Today/Gallup
  49. ^ Rasmussen
  50. ^ OnPoint Polling and Research
  51. ^ "Sen. Burns Concedes Montana Race". NPR. November 9, 2006. Retrieved April 1, 2018.[dead link‍]
  52. ^ "Democrat challenger takes Montana". USA Today. November 8, 2006. Retrieved May 27, 2010.
  53. ^ "Democrat wins Montana Senate seat, CNN projects". CNN. Archived from the original on November 8, 2006.
  54. ^ "13-16-211. Recounts are allowed if bond is posted to cover all costs". Archived from the original on November 10, 2007. Retrieved November 9, 2006.
  55. ^ "Montana's Burns concedes Senate race". USA Today. November 9, 2006. Retrieved May 27, 2010.
  56. ^ 2006 Election Statistics
  57. ^ "U.S. Senate / Montana / County Results". CNN. Retrieved November 8, 2022.
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Official campaign websites (Archived)

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