2025 Ecuadorian general election
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 Ecuador portal |
General elections are scheduled to be held in Ecuador on 9 February 2025.[1] If necessary, a second round will be held on 13 April 2025.[1] Incumbent President Daniel Noboa is running for re-election, having been elected in the 2023 general election.[2] The election will also elect members of the National Assembly to a full four year term.[1]
Background
[edit]In 2024, the country faced a military and security conflict when Los Choneros leader José Adolfo Macías Villamar escaped from prison in the city of Guayaquil, on the day of his scheduled transfer to a maximum-security prison. The events were reported the next day by authorities, with charges being filed against two prison guards.[3][4] Following the escape, Noboa declared a state of emergency, to last for 60 days.[5] Riots ensued in multiple prisons across Ecuador following Noboa's decree of military use in prisons.[6] Two days later, mass armed attacks occurred throughout the country, including armed groups storming a television broadcasting station mid-air.[7][8]
In May 2024, Noboa filed to run for re-election with the National Electoral Council under a "special" registration number.[2]
Electoral system
[edit]The president is elected using a modified two-round system, with a candidate required to get over 50% of the vote, or get over 40% of the vote and be 10 points ahead of their nearest rival, to be elected in the first round.[9] The president is limited to two consecutive four-year terms.[9][10] However, Noboa is currently serving the remaining term of Guillermo Lasso, whose invoking of muerte cruzada resulted in the calling of the 2023 snap general elections and the early conclusion of his presidency.[11]
Members of the National Assembly are elected by three methods.[10] Fifteen are elected by closed list proportional representation in a nationwide constituency.[12] Six are elected by overseas voters (two each from Canada/United States, Latin America and Asia/Europe/Oceania).[12] The remaining 116 members are elected from multi-member constituencies by closed list proportional representation, with all seats allocated using the Webster method.[12][13] Members of the National Assembly are limited to two four-year terms, regardless if they are consecutive or not.[13] There are gender quotas for the party lists, meaning there is alternation between men and women. There are no quotas for minority representation.[10]
Presidential candidates
[edit]Candidates
[edit]The following candidates have officially submitted their candidacy through the National Electoral Council:[14][15]
| Name | Born | Experience | Home province | Campaign | Ref | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jorge Escala |
8 January 1970 (age 54) Ventanas, Los Ríos |
Member of the National Assembly (2009–2013) |
 |
Running for: Announced: 18 May 2024 |
[16] | |
.jpg) Andrea González Náder |
1 April 1987 (age 37) Guayaquil, Guayas |
Environmental activist 2023 vice presidential candidate |
 |
Running for: Announced: 10 June 2024 |
[17] | |
 Luisa González |
22 November 1977 (age 47) Quito, Pichincha |
Member of the National Assembly (2021–2023) Secretary of Public Administration (2017) 2023 presidential candidate |
 |
Nominee of the: Announced: 29 February 2024 Nominated: 10 August 2024 |
[18][19] | |
.jpg) Jimmy Jairala |
26 September 1957 (age 67) Guayaquil, Guayas |
Leader of the Democratic Center (2012–present) Prefect of Guayas Province (2009–2018) Member of the National Congress (2007) |
|
Running for: Announced: 31 July 2024 |
[20][21] | |
 Daniel Noboa |
30 November 1987 (age 37) Miami, Florida, U.S. |
48th President of Ecuador (2023–present) Member of the National Assembly (2021–2023) |
 |
Running for: Announced: 23 May 2024 |
[18][22][2] | |
 Iván Saquicela |
13 March 1975 (age 49) Cuenca, Azuay |
President of the National Justice Court (2021-2024) |
 |
Running for: Announced: 13 August 2024 |
[23] | |
Francesco Tabacchi |
8 June 1971[24] (age 53) Guayaquil, Guayas |
Governor of Guayas (2023) |
|
Running for: Announced: 17 August 2024 |
[25][26] | |
 Jan Topić |
23 April 1983 (age 41) Guayaquil, Guayas |
Businessman | |
Running for: Announced: 17 August 2024 |
[27][28] | |
_(cropped).jpg) Henry Cucalón |
8 June 1973 (age 51) Guayaquil, Guayas |
Minister of the Government (2023) Member of the National Assembly (2013–2021) |
|
Running for: Announced: 2 July 2024 |
[29] | |
.jpg) Leonidas Iza |
18 June 1982 (age 42) Latacunga, Cotopaxi |
President of CONAIE (2021–present) |
 |
Running for: Announced: 29 February 2024 |
[18] | |
_1.1.jpg) Henry Kronfle |
1972 (age 52) Guayaquil, Guayas |
President of the National Assembly (2023–present) Member of the National Assembly (2017–present) |
 |
Running for: Announced: 7 August 2024 |
[21] | |
.jpg) Carlos Rabascall |
3 September 1960 (age 64) Guayaquil, Guayas |
Businessman 2021 vice presidential candidate |
|
Running for: Announced: 24 July 2024 |
[30] | |
- ^ Alliance is composed of National Democratic Action and Mover
Minor pre-candidates
[edit]The following pre-candidates have been also selected in the primaries of the national parties and are eligible for inscription but haven't been notable enough due to lack of coverage or not being present in a national opinion poll:
- Víctor Araus (People, Equality and Democracy), former General of the National Police of Ecuador[31]
- Juan Iván Cueva (AMIGO), businessman[32]
- Pedro Granja (PSE), criminal lawyer[33]
- Eduardo Sánchez (RETO), businessman[34]
- Luis Tillería (Avanza), businessman, council member of the City of London Corporation[35][36]
Withdrawn
[edit]| Name | Born | Experience | Home province | Campaign | Ref |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 José Serrano |
19 November 1970 (age 54) Cuenca, Azuay |
President of the National Assembly (2017–2018) Member of the National Assembly (2017–2021) Minister of the Interior (2011–2016) |
|
Running for: Announced: 31 July 2024 Withdrew: 27 August 2024 |
[20][37] |
.jpg) Paola Pabón |
28 January 1978 (age 46) Ibarra, Imbabura |
Prefect of Pichincha Province (2019–present) Member of the National Assembly (2009–2015) |
|
Ran for: Announced: 6 June 2024 Withdrew: 7 August 2024 (endorsed González) |
[38][21] |
Declined
[edit]The following notable individuals have been the subject of speculation about their possible candidacy but have publicly denied interest in running or were rejected as pre-candidates and declined to pursue further with their candidacies.
- Bolívar Armijos Velasco, President of the National Council of Rural Parochial Governments of Ecuador (2014–2019) and 2023 presidential candidate[39]
- Pedro Freile, Director of the Inter-American Development Bank Ecuadorian Division (2004–2005), 2021 presidential candidate (endorsed Topić)[40][28]
- Lucio Gutiérrez, member of the National Assembly (2023–present) and 43rd President of Ecuador (2003–2005)[41] (endorsed González Náder)[42]
- Guillermo Lasso (CREO), 47th President of Ecuador (2021–2023) (endorsed Tabacchi)[43][44]
- Claudia Ormaza Loor (MCD), engineer[45][46]
- Edwin Ortega (Gente Buena), retired Captain of the Ecuadorian Army (did not find support from any national party)[47]
- Dallyana Passailaigue, member of the National Assembly (2017–present)[48] (running for vice president; endorsed Kronfle)[49]
- Cristina Reyes, President of the Andean Parliament (2023–present), Member of the National Assembly (2013–2021), Municipal Councillor of Guayaquil (2009–2012)[50] (running for vice president; endorsed Cueva)[51]
- Diana Salazar Méndez, Attorney General of Ecuador (2019–present)[52]
Opinion polling
[edit]The following lists opinion polls conducted since the 2023 election. Results for candidates in first place are in bold and have a background of their party colour. Results for candidates who would reach a second round (if the first-placed candidate would not reach 40% with a 10 point lead) are also in bold.
Pre-candidates
[edit]| Date(s) administered |
Polling source | Sample size | Margin of error |
Daniel Noboa (ADN) |
Luisa González (RC) |
Gustavo Jalkh (RC) |
Pedro Granja (PSE) |
Leonidas Iza (MUPP) |
Jan Topić (SUMA) |
Pedro Freile (SUMA) |
Henry Kronfle (PSC) |
Carlos Rabascall (ID) |
Andrea González (PSP) |
Victor Araus (PID) |
Jorge Escala (UP) |
Henry Cucalón (MC25) |
José Serrano (MCD) |
Luis Tillería (Avanza) |
Bolívar Armijos (AMIGO) |
Cristina Reyes (Ind.) |
Diana Salazar (Ind.) |
Others | Nulled | Blank | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Sep 2024 | CID Gallup[53] | 1,200 | 2.8% | 31% | 26% | – | – | – | 15% | – | 1% | – | – | – | – | 2% | – | – | – | – | – | 4% | 21% | ||
| 22 Sep 2024 | Informe Confidential[54] | – | – | 29% | 25% | – | – | 3% | 7% | – | 2% | 1% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 17% | 10% | |
| 31 Aug 2024 | Maluk Research[55] | 4,516 | 2.5% | 31.3% | 39.8% | – | 2.1% | 3.2% | 6.5% | – | 1.1% | – | 1.2% | – | 1.6% | 1.3% | 3.2% | 3.4% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 24 Aug 2024 | Cedatos[56] | 3,238 | 3.1% | 48.6% | 27.6% | – | 1.3% | 5.3% | 7.7% | – | 1.6% | 1,5% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 1.1% | – | – | – | 2,0% | – | – | – |
| 20 Aug 2024 | Estrategas Infinity[57] | 2,879 | 2.15% | 32.48% | 26.08% | – | 0.69% | 3.68% | 7.61% | – | 0.59% | 0,76% | 1.22% | 1.22% | 0.87% | 0.17% | 1.18% | 0.52% | – | – | – | 0.55% | 10.00% | 1.95% | 10.43% |
| 19 Aug 2024 | Negocios y Estrategias[58] | – | – | 37% | 41% | – | 1% | 2% | 8% | – | 0% | 1% | – | – | – | 1% | 1% | – | – | – | – | – | 9.9% | – | |
| 18 Aug 2024 | Communicaliza[59] | 4,971 | 1.39% | 32.4% | 25.4% | – | 1.2% | 2.6% | 6.3% | – | 1.4% | 0,8% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 2.2% | 0.4% | – | – | – | 0,9% | 9.9% | 14.3% | |
| 5 Aug 2024 | Maluk Research[60] | 4,052 | 2.5% | 25.27% | 39.67% | – | 3.86% | 4.45% | – | 2.57% | – | 1,83% | 2.50% | – | 2.81% | 2.95% | – | 6.48% | – | – | 3.16% | 4.44% | – | – | – |
| 22.83% | – | 26.93% | 5.75% | 5.83% | – | 3.70% | – | 4,41% | 3.07% | – | 2.20% | 4.72% | – | 12.60% | – | – | 3.07% | 4.88% | 7.03% | – | – | ||||
| 4 Aug 2024 | Communicaliza[61] | 4,336 | 1.49% | 33.2% | 22.4% | – | 0.9% | 3.7% | – | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1,1% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 2.7% | – | – | – | – | – | 12.6% | 16.2% | |
| 27 Jul 2024 | Communicaliza[62] | 4,816 | 1.41% | 31.9% | – | 15.4% | 1.2% | 4.2% | – | 0.4% | 1.3% | 0,8% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.8% | – | – | – | – | – | 0.4% | 12.5% | 26.7% | |
| 17 Jul 2024 | Maluk Research[63] | 4,793 | 2.5% | 34.61% | 40.11% | – | 3.90% | 4.07% | – | – | 0.48% | – | 3.10% | – | 4.65% | 1.74% | – | – | – | – | 1.94% | 5.39% | – | – | – |
| 8 Jul 2024 | Perfiles de Opinión[64] | 621 | 4.01% | 34.08% | – | 14.66% | 1.85% | 6.01% | – | – | – | – | 1.83% | – | – | 1.08% | – | – | – | – | 1.62% | 1.60% | 24.61% | 12.68% | – |
| 4 Jul 2024 | Cedatos[65] | 3,882 | 2.4% | 35.2% | 11.7% | – | - | 3.4% | – | – | 4.0% | – | 5.9% | – | – | 7.0% | – | – | – | – | – | 2.0% | 14.9% | 3.6% | 12.3% |
| 36.6% | – | 3.80% | - | 3.5% | – | – | 4.3% | – | 5.4% | – | – | 7.6% | – | – | – | – | – | 11.4% | 15.1% | 4.4% | 7.8% | ||||
| 29 Jun 2024 | Communicaliza[66] | 4,333 | 1.49% | 31.4% | 21.7% | – | 0.9% | 3.4% | – | – | 1.5% | 0,4% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.3% | – | – | 0.3% | – | – | 0.2% | 11.2% | 25.3% | |
| 32.6% | – | 17.9% | 1.3% | 3.4% | – | – | 1.7% | 0,9% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.4% | – | 0.6% | – | 0.4% | – | – | 0.4% | 11.9% | 26.8% | |||||
| 28 Jun 2024 | Maluk Research[67] | 4,412 | 2.5% | 32.49% | 39.63% | – | 5.21% | 4.89% | – | – | 1.16% | – | 3.69% | – | 1.04% | – | 1.72% | – | – | – | 2.73% | 7.42% | – | – | – |
| 13 Jun 2024 | Maluk Research[68] | 4,012 | 2.5% | 32.37% | 43.22% | – | 4.98% | 4.85% | – | – | 1.02% | – | 3.01% | – | 1.18% | 0.92% | – | – | 1.33% | – | 1.10% | 6.03% | – | – | – |
| 30 May 2024 | Communicaliza[69] | – | – | 39.8% | 21.1% | – | 1.0% | 2.3% | – | – | 2.4% | 1.1% | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0.5% | 0.8% | – | 0.8% | 9.8% | 20.5% | |
| 14 May 2024 | Maluk Research[70] | 4,012 | 2.5% | 29.91% | 47.75% | – | 4.60% | 1.89% | 2.30% | – | – | 2.79% | 0.95% | – | – | – | – | – | 0.00% | 8.90% | 0.37% | 0.54% | – | – | – |
| 15 Apr 2024 | Maluk Research[71] | 3,635 | 2.5% | 30.31% | 39.12% | – | 5.13% | 4.20% | 3.71% | – | – | 3.69% | 1.68% | – | – | – | – | – | 0.26% | 8.93% | 1.02% | 1.96% | – | – | – |
References
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- ^ https://x.com/amarchante/status/1808961052949819463
- ^ La Contra (2024-07-02). 🔴 ¿CUÁL ES LA INTENCIÓN DE VOTO PARA PRESIDENTE? EVALUACIÓN DE CANDIDATOS SEGÚN CIFRAS | OMAR MALUK. Retrieved 2024-10-11 – via YouTube.
- ^ https://malukresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/ENCUESTA-NACIONAL-QUINCENAL-JUNIO-2024.pdf
- ^ Café la Posta (2024-05-31). ¿El Gobierno ha tomado BUENAS DECISIONES?. Retrieved 2024-10-11 – via YouTube.
- ^ https://malukresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/ENCUESTA-NACIONAL-MAYO2024.pdf
- ^ Paucar, Edison (2024-05-17). "Otra encuesta muestra que la desaprobación de Noboa llegó al 59,92%". RADIO PICHINCHA (in Spanish). Retrieved 2024-10-11.
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