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2023 Cantabrian regional election

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2023 Cantabrian regional election
← 2019 28 May 2023 Next ⊟
All 35 seats in the Parliament of Cantabria
18 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered507,438 Green arrow up1.3%
Turnout331,413 (65.3%)
Red arrow down0.4 pp
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader María José Sáenz de Buruaga Miguel Ángel Revilla Pablo Zuloaga
Party PP PRC PSOE
Leader since 22 January 2019 1983 16 July 2017
Last election 9 seats, 24.0% 14 seats, 37.6% 7 seats, 17.6%
Seats won 15 8 8
Seat change Green arrow up6 Red arrow down6 Green arrow up1
Popular vote 116,198 67,523 66,917
Percentage 35.8% 20.8% 20.6%
Swing Green arrow up11.8 pp Red arrow down16.8 pp Green arrow up3.0 pp
  Fourth party Fifth party
 
Leader Leticia Díaz Félix Álvarez
Party Vox CS
Leader since 17 January 2023 2 March 2019
Last election 2 seats, 5.1% 3 seats, 7.9%
Seats won 4 0
Seat change Green arrow up2 Red arrow down3
Popular vote 35,982 7,527
Percentage 11.1% 2.3%
Swing Green arrow up6.0 pp Red arrow down5.6 pp
President before election

Miguel Ángel Revilla
PRC

Elected President

María José Sáenz de Buruaga
PP

The 2023 Cantabrian regional election was held on Sunday, 28 May 2023, to elect the 11th Parliament of the autonomous community of Cantabria. All 35 seats in the Parliament were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in eleven other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.

Overview

[edit]

Electoral system

[edit]

The Parliament of Cantabria was the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Cantabria, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Cantabrian Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[1] Voting for the Parliament was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Cantabria and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Amendments to the electoral law in 2022 abolished the "begged" or expat vote system (Spanish: Voto rogado), under which Spaniards abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote.[2] The expat vote system was attributed responsibility for a major decrease in the turnout of Spaniards abroad during the years it had been in force.[3]

The 35 members of the Parliament of Cantabria were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of five percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied regionally.[1][4]

Election date

[edit]

The term of the Parliament of Cantabria expired four years after the date of its previous election. Elections to the Parliament were fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The previous election was held on 26 May 2019, setting the election date for the Parliament on Sunday, 28 May 2023.[1][4][5]

The president had the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of Cantabria and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process, no nationwide election was due and some time requirements were met: namely, that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year had elapsed since a previous dissolution. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Parliament was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called. Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances would not alter the period to the next ordinary election, with elected deputies merely serving out what remained of their four-year terms.[1]

The election to the Parliament of Cantabria was officially triggered on 4 April 2023 after the publication of the election decree in the Official Gazette of Cantabria (BOC), scheduling for the chamber to convene on 22 June.[6]

Parliamentary composition

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The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Parliament at the time of dissolution.[7]

Parliamentary composition in April 2023
Groups Parties Legislators
Seats Total
Regionalist Parliamentary Group PRC 14 14
People's Parliamentary Group PP 9 9
Socialist Parliamentary Group PSOE 7 7
Citizens Parliamentary Group CS 3 3
Mixed Parliamentary Group Vox 2 2

Parties and candidates

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The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in Cantabria, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[4][5]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

Candidacy Parties and
alliances 		Candidate Ideology Previous result Gov. Ref.
Votes (%) Seats
PRC
List
 Miguel Ángel Revilla Regionalism
Centrism 		37.64% 14 checkY [8]
PP
List
 María José Sáenz de Buruaga Conservatism
Christian democracy 		24.04% 9 ☒N [9]
PSOE
List
 Pablo Zuloaga Social democracy 17.61% 7 checkY [10]
CS
List
 Félix Álvarez Liberalism 7.94% 3 ☒N [11]
Vox
List
 Leticia Díaz Right-wing populism
Ultranationalism
National conservatism 		5.06% 2 ☒N [12]
Podemos–IU
List
 Mónica Rodero Left-wing populism
Direct democracy
Democratic socialism 		5.04%[a] 0 ☒N [13]
[14]

On 19 December 2019, Félix Álvarez resigned as leader of Citizens (CS) in Cantabria, citing "disagreements" with the party's leadership after a scandal broke out over the one-day hiring of Cs former leading candidate for the Congress of Deputies in the region, Rubén Gómez, a contract which Álvarez had publicly denied from having taken place.[15]

Opinion polls

[edit]

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Graphical summary

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Local regression trend line of poll results from 26 May 2019 to 28 May 2023, with each line corresponding to a political party.

Voting intention estimates

[edit]

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 18 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Cantabria.

Voting preferences

[edit]

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Results

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← Summary of the 28 May 2023 Parliament of Cantabria election results
Parties and alliances Popular vote Seats
Votes % ±pp Total /−
People's Party (PP) 116,198 35.78 11.74 15 6
Regionalist Party of Cantabria (PRC) 67,523 20.79 –16.85 8 –6
Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) 66,917 20.61 3.00 8 1
Vox (Vox) 35,982 11.08 6.02 4 2
We Can–United Left (Podemos–IU)1 13,395 4.12 –0.92 0 ±0
Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (CS) 7,527 2.32 –5.62 0 –3
Cantabrists (Cantabristas) 5,522 1.70 1.21 0 ±0
Animalist Party with the Environment (PACMA)2 1,837 0.57 ±0.00 0 ±0
Greens Equo (Equo) 1,548 0.48 New 0 ±0
WaveCantabria (OlaCantabria) 1,125 0.35 0.01 0 ±0
Communist Party of the Workers of Spain (PCTE) 757 0.23 –0.01 0 ±0
Different Cantabria (Cantabria Distinta) 588 0.18 New 0 ±0
Blank ballots 5,809 1.75 0.77
Total 324,728 35 ±0
Valid votes 324,728 97.98 –1.04
Invalid votes 6,685 2.02 1.04
Votes cast / turnout 331,413 65.31 –0.40
Abstentions 176,025 34.69 0.40
Registered voters 507,438
Sources[16]
Footnotes:
Popular vote
PP
 
 35.78%
PRC
 
 20.79%
PSOE
 
 20.61%
Vox
 
 11.08%
Podemos–IU
 
 4.12%
CS
 
 2.32%
Cantabristas
 
 1.70%
Others
 
 1.81%
Blank ballots
 
 1.75%
Seats
PP
 
 42.86%
PRC
 
 22.86%
PSOE
 
 22.86%
Vox
 
 11.43%

Aftermath

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Further information: Government of María José Sáenz de Buruaga
Investiture
María José Sáenz de Buruaga (PP)
Ballot → 30 June 2023 3 July 2023
Required majority → 18 out of 35 ☒N Simple checkY
Yes
  • • PP (15)
15 / 35
15 / 35
No
12 / 35
12 / 35
Abstentions
8 / 35
8 / 35
Absentees
0 / 35
0 / 35
Sources[17][18]

Notes

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  1. ^ Results for Podemos (3.14%, 0 seats) and IU Equo (Marea Cántabra) (1.90%, 0 seats) in the 2019 election.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad ae af ag ah ai aj ak al am an ao ap aq ar as at au av aw ax ay az ba bb bc bd be bf bg bh bi bj Within Unidas Podemos.
  3. ^ Vote Simpathy figures with undecided and/or abstentionists excluded.

References

[edit]
Opinion poll sources
  1. ^ "Elecciones autonómicas: El PP arrebataría al PSOE la Comunidad Valenciana, Castilla-La Mancha y La Rioja". La Razón (in Spanish). 22 May 2023.
  2. ^ "Revilla reeditaría el Gobierno de Cantabria si pacta con Podemos-IU además del PSOE". Público (in Spanish). 19 May 2023.
  3. ^ "La última encuesta electoral en Cantabria acerca a PRC y PSOE a la mayoría absoluta y deja fuera del Parlamento a Podemos-IU". elDiario.es (in Spanish). 21 May 2023.
  4. ^ "¿Podrá volver a gobernar Revilla en Cantabria? Estas son sus dos opciones en el último ElectoPanel". El Plural (in Spanish). 20 May 2023.
  5. ^ "EP Autonómico (20My – Final): nos espera un 28M de infarto". Electomanía (in Spanish). 20 May 2023.
  6. ^ "El último ElectoPanel no coincide con el CIS de Tezanos sobre el resultado de Revilla en Cantabria". El Plural (in Spanish). 13 May 2023.
  7. ^ "ElectoPanel Autonómico (13M)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 13 May 2023.
  8. ^ "Más que una 'encuesta' / ¿Por qué es tan importante para Revilla el escaño que quita al PP?". El Plural (in Spanish). 6 May 2023.
  9. ^ "ElectoPanel Autonómico (6M)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 6 May 2023.
  10. ^ "El PP da el 'sorpasso' a Revilla y puede mirar a Vox o PRC para alcanzar pactos". ABC (in Spanish). 13 May 2023.
  11. ^ "Una encuesta de Metroscopia anuncia el fin de Revilla y da Cantabria al PP y Vox". VozPópuli (in Spanish). 8 May 2023.
  12. ^ a b "Preelectoral elecciones municipales y autonómicas 2023. Comunidad Autónoma de Cantabria (Estudio nº 3402. Abril 2023)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 11 May 2023.
  13. ^ "Estimación de voto. Municipios, grandes ciudades y Comunidades Autónomas (Estudio nº 3402. Abril 2023)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 11 May 2023.
  14. ^ "Cantabria / Revilla y PSOE suman más que PP y Vox, aunque Vox puede ser decisivo". El Plural (in Spanish). 29 April 2023.
  15. ^ "ElectoPanel Autonómico (29A)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 29 April 2023.
  16. ^ "Cantabria / La suma de PSOE y PRC supera la de PP y Vox". El Plural (in Spanish). 23 April 2023.
  17. ^ "ElectoPanel Autonómico (22A)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 22 April 2023.
  18. ^ "Revilla necesitará un pacto con el PSOE y Podemos-IU para un quinto mandato en Cantabria". elDiario.es (in Spanish). 19 April 2023.
  19. ^ "ElectoPanel Cantabria / La suma de PSOE y PRC roza la mayoría absoluta y Podemos resiste". El Plural (in Spanish). 15 April 2023.
  20. ^ "ElectoPanel Autonómico (15A) – varias CCAA en un puño". Electomanía (in Spanish). 15 April 2023.
  21. ^ "ElectoPanel Cantabria / La quinta legislatura de Revilla, en manos de la izquierda". El Plural (in Spanish). 8 April 2023.
  22. ^ "EP Autonómico 8A – comienza el juego". Electomanía (in Spanish). 8 April 2023.
  23. ^ "Revilla podrá reeditar el Gobierno de Cantabria con el PSOE, aun con el PP como primera fuerza". Público (in Spanish). 19 March 2023.
  24. ^ "Los populares, la fuerza más votada al lograr 5 escaños más en Cantabria". La Razón (in Spanish). 6 March 2023.
  25. ^ "PRC y PSOE se quedarían a las puertas de repetir la mayoría absoluta". El Diario Cantabria (in Spanish). 28 February 2023.
  26. ^ "Una encuesta pronostica el final de Revilla: el PP ganaría en Cantabria y podría gobernar con Vox". The Objective (in Spanish). 4 March 2023.
  27. ^ "[AUT] CANTABRIA. Encuesta Metroscopia 04/03/2023: PODEMOS-IU 5,6% (0/2), PSOE 20,6% (8), PRC 23,4% (9), CS 1,2%, PP 34,9% (13/14), VOX 9,5% (3/4)". Electográfica (in Spanish). 4 March 2023.
  28. ^ "El 'subidón' del PP en Cantabria no logra desbancar a un Revilla a la baja". El Mundo (in Spanish). 13 February 2023.
  29. ^ "[AUT] CANTABRIA. Encuesta SigmaDos 13/02/2023: PODEMOS-IU 5,4% (2), PSOE 18,1% (6/7), PRC 31,8% (12), CS 1,8%, PP 33,4% (12), VOX 7,9% (2/3)". Electográfica (in Spanish). 13 February 2023.
  30. ^ a b "Macroencuesta sobre tendencias en voto autonómico (Estudio nº 3386. Noviembre-diciembre 2022)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 22 December 2022.
  31. ^ "Estimación de escaños elecciones autonómicas (Estudio nº 3386. Macroencuesta sobre tendencias en voto autonómico)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 22 December 2022.
  32. ^ "EP (Cantabria 31Ag): empate perfecto entre PP y PRC". Electomanía (in Spanish). 31 August 2022.
  33. ^ "CANTABRIA. Encuesta Logos Lab 06/03/2022: PODEMOS-IU 5,0% (2), PSOE 19,5% (7), PRC 31,5% (12), Cs 3,9%, PP 26,1% (10), VOX 10,0% (4)". Electograph (in Spanish). 6 March 2022.
  34. ^ "EP Cantabria (28F): empate a escaños entre el PRC y el PP". Electomanía (in Spanish). 28 February 2022.
  35. ^ "PRC y PSOE podrían reeditar el pacto de Gobierno, y Podemos regresaría al Parlamento". El Diario Cantabria (in Spanish). 1 December 2021.
  36. ^ "Cantabria (EP 31M): Revilla, en apuros, cae y queda al borde del sorpasso del PP". Electomanía (in Spanish). 31 May 2021.
  37. ^ "CANTABRIA. Encuesta Metroscopia (interna PP) 01/05/2021: IU 1,5%, PODEMOS 4,6%, PSOE 21,7% (9), PRC 26,1% (10), Cs 2,9%, PP 28,9% (12), VOX 9,8% (4)". Electograph (in Spanish). 1 May 2021.
  38. ^ "EP (28F – Cantabria): Revilla sube, Vox alcanza el 10%. Podemos y Cs, extraparlamentarios". Electomanía (in Spanish). 28 February 2021.
  39. ^ "Estimación oleada Cantabria Noviembre 2020. Autonómicas 2023". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 27 November 2020.
  40. ^ "CANTABRIA. Encuesta SyM Consulting 27/11/2020: IU 1,8%, PODEMOS 3,8%, PSOE 16,6% (6/7), PRC 31,0% (12/13), Cs 3,9%, PP 22,4% (9), VOX 17,9% (7)". Electograph (in Spanish). 27 November 2020.
  41. ^ "EP (17My): Cantabria – victoria de Revilla, pero la Presidencia pende de un hilo". Electomanía (in Spanish). 17 May 2020.
  42. ^ "MacroPanel Autonómico (17My): 8 gobiernos para PSOE , 8 para PP y 3 para otros ". Electomanía (in Spanish). 17 May 2020.
  43. ^ "Estimación oleada Cantabria Mayo 2020. Autonómicas 2023". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 14 May 2020.
  44. ^ "CANTABRIA. Encuesta SyM Consulting 14/05/2020: IU 1,5%, PODEMOS 5,5% (2), PSOE 20,4% (8), PRC 37,9% (14/15), Cs 4,3%, PP 21,2% (8), VOX 6,8% (2/3)". Electograph (in Spanish). 14 May 2020.
  45. ^ "El PRC perdería a la mitad de sus votantes sin Miguel Angel Revilla como candidato". eldiario.es (in Spanish). 17 February 2020.
  46. ^ "CANTABRIA. Encuesta SW Demoscopia: UP 7,1% (2), PSOE 22,5% (9), PRC 32,5% (13), Cs 3,9%, PP 22,4% (8), VOX 8,6% (3)". Electograph (in Spanish). 17 February 2020.
Other
  1. ^ a b c d Ley Orgánica 8/1981, de 30 de diciembre, de Estatuto de Autonomía para Cantabria (Organic Law 8) (in Spanish). 30 December 1981. Retrieved 18 September 2017.
  2. ^ Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  3. ^ Araque Conde, Pilar (8 June 2022). "El Congreso acaba con el voto rogado: diez años de trabas burocráticas para los residentes en el extranjero". Público (in Spanish). Madrid. Retrieved 31 July 2022.
  4. ^ a b c Ley 5/1987, de 27 de marzo, de Elecciones a la Asamblea Regional de Cantabria (Law 5) (in Spanish). 27 March 1987. Retrieved 30 January 2020.
  5. ^ a b Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General (Organic Law 5) (in Spanish). 19 June 1985. Retrieved 8 April 2023.
  6. ^ "Decreto 3/2023, de 3 de abril, de convocatoria de elecciones al Parlamento de Cantabria". Boletín Oficial de Cantabria (in Spanish) (18 Extraordinary): 2583–2584. 4 April 2023. ISSN 2483-7091.
  7. ^ "Elecciones al Parlamento de Cantabria (1983 - 2019)". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 15 August 2019.
  8. ^ Alonso, Rubén (25 October 2022). "Revilla volverá a presentarse como candidato del PRC a las elecciones autonómicas de Cantabria en 2023". elDiario.es (in Spanish). Retrieved 18 April 2023.
  9. ^ Alonso, Rubén (16 December 2022). "Génova confirma que María José Sáenz de Buruaga será la candidata del PP a la Presidencia de Cantabria en 2023". elDiario.es (in Spanish). Retrieved 17 April 2023.
  10. ^ "El PSOE presenta una candidatura al 28M renovada al 60%, nuevamente con Zuloaga y Cobo a la cabeza" (in Spanish). Santander: Europa Press. 11 March 2023. Retrieved 18 April 2023.
  11. ^ "Felisuco repetirá como candidato de Ciudadanos a la Presidencia de Cantabria sin necesidad de pasar por primarias". elDiario.es (in Spanish). 8 February 2023. Retrieved 24 March 2023.
  12. ^ Martínez, Daniel (17 January 2023). "Leticia Díaz será la candidata regional de Vox y Emilio del Valle peleará por Santander". El Diario Montañés (in Spanish). Santander. Retrieved 6 February 2023.
  13. ^ "Mónica Rodero será la candidata de Podemos para la Presidencia de Cantabria" (in Spanish). Santander: Europa Press. 4 November 2022. Retrieved 10 April 2023.
  14. ^ "Podemos e Izquierda Unida se presentarán en coalición a las elecciones de mayo en Cantabria". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). Madrid. Agencias. 27 January 2023. Retrieved 6 February 2023.
  15. ^ "Dimite Felisuco como portavoz de Ciudadanos en Cantabria por desavenencias con la dirección". El Mundo (in Spanish). 19 December 2019. Retrieved 17 February 2020.
  16. ^ "Acta de los resultados generales de las elecciones a Diputados del Parlamento de Cantabria celebradas el 28 de mayo de 2023 en la circunscripción electoral de Cantabria, acta de proclamación de candidatos y resultados del escrutinio del voto de los electores inscritos en el CERA" (PDF). Boletín Oficial de Cantabria (in Spanish). 7 June 2023.
  17. ^ "Buruaga no logra la Presidencia de Cantabria en primera votación por el voto en contra de PSOE y Vox". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). Santander. Europa Press. 30 June 2023. Retrieved 30 June 2023.
  18. ^ Escudero, Emilio V. (3 July 2023). "Sáenz de Buruaga, nueva presidenta de Cantabria con el voto en contra de Vox". ABC (in Spanish). Madrid. Retrieved 3 July 2023.
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