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2013 Virginia gubernatorial election

(Redirected from Virginia gubernatorial election, 2013)

For related races, see 2013 United States gubernatorial elections.

The 2013 Virginia gubernatorial election took place on November 5, 2013, to elect the governor of Virginia. The incumbent governor, Republican Bob McDonnell, was not eligible to run for re-election due to term limits established by the Virginia Constitution. Virginia is the only state that prohibits its governor from serving immediate successive terms. This was the 5th consecutive election in which the Republican nominee was an Attorney General of Virginia.

2013 Virginia gubernatorial election
← 2009 November 5, 2013 2017 →
Turnout43.0% Increase 2.6[1]
 
Nominee Terry McAuliffe Ken Cuccinelli Robert Sarvis
Party Democratic Republican Libertarian
Popular vote 1,069,789 1,013,354 146,084
Percentage 47.75% 45.23% 6.52%
McAuliffe:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Cuccinelli:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%      No votes
Governor before election

Bob McDonnell
Republican

Elected Governor

Terry McAuliffe
Democratic

Three candidates appeared on the ballot for Governor: Republican Ken Cuccinelli, the Attorney General of Virginia; Democrat Terry McAuliffe, a businessman and the former chairman of the Democratic National Committee; and Libertarian Robert Sarvis, a lawyer and businessman.[2]

McAuliffe won the election and was sworn in as governor on January 11, 2014.[3] This was the only Virginia gubernatorial election since 1965 in which no candidate won an outright majority of the vote.[4] This would be the first Virginia gubernatorial election in which that the town of Bedford would become part of Bedford County instead of being an Independent city.[5]

As of 2024, this is the only Virginia gubernatorial election since 1973 in which the elected governor belonged to the same party as the incumbent U.S. president.[6]

Candidates

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Republican Party

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Main article: 2013 Republican Party of Virginia convention

Lieutenant Governor Bill Bolling, elected to the post in 2005, made a deal with McDonnell whereby Bolling would run for re-election as lieutenant governor in 2009, enabling McDonnell to run for governor without a primary, in exchange for McDonnell's support in 2013. After the 2009 election, Bolling made no secret of his intention to run for governor in 2013, while Attorney General of Virginia Ken Cuccinelli openly stated that he was considering three options: a run for re-election as attorney general in 2013, running for the U.S. Senate in 2014, and running for governor in 2013.[7] Cuccinelli announced to colleagues on December 1, 2011, that he was indeed running for governor.[8] Bolling responded on the same day that he was disappointed that Cuccinelli decided to challenge him.[9]

Bolling, who was polling poorly against Cuccinelli, withdrew from the race on November 28, 2012. He cited the Republican Party's decision to move to a nominating convention rather than hold a primary. He ruled out running for another term as lieutenant governor and refused to endorse Cuccinelli.[10] Bolling considered running as an independent, but decided against it.[11] Bolling also rejected the possibility of a write-in campaign.[12]

Nominee

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Cuccinelli became the de facto nominee after being the only candidate to file to run by the deadline, and was formally nominated at the state Republican convention on May 18, 2013.[14]

Withdrew

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Declined

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Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Bill
Bolling 		Ken
Cuccinelli 		Undecided
Quinnipiac[19] May 30 – June 4, 2012 549 ± 4.2% 15% 51% 31%
Public Policy Polling[20] April 26–29, 2012 400 ± 4.9% 23% 51% 22%
Roanoke College[21] February 13–28, 2012 377 ± 5% 18% 37% 44%
Public Policy Polling[22] December 11–13, 2011 350 ± 5.2% 25% 44% 31%
Public Policy Polling[23] July 21–24, 2011 400 ± 4.9% 21% 45% 34%

Democratic Party

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McAuliffe campaigning in May 2013

Nominee

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On April 2, 2013, the Democratic Party of Virginia certified that McAuliffe was the only candidate to file for the June primary and therefore the Democratic nominee.[25]

Declined

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Libertarian Party

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Nominee

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On April 21, 2013, the Libertarian Party of Virginia held a special convention[32] and nominated Sarvis as the party's official gubernatorial candidate.[33]

Sarvis' campaign submitted over 17,000 signatures to meet the Virginia State Board of Elections (SBE) requirement of 10,000 valid signatures.[34] On June 26, 2013, the SBE confirmed to Sarvis' campaign that he would be listed on the ballot statewide during the elections this November.[35] This made Sarvis the fourth minor party gubernatorial nominee to get on the Virginia ballot in 40 years.[34]

Write-in candidates

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Declared

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  • John Parmele Jr., navy retiree[36]

Parmele announced his campaign as a write-in candidate in August 2013. Parmele unsuccessfully ran for the Virginia Beach City Council six times.[37] In 2005, he ran as an independent for the 82nd district of the Virginia House of Delegates and lost to incumbent Harry Purkey.[38][39]

Salahi planned to seek the Republican nomination, but left the party to launch an independent bid.[41] However, he failed to submit the necessary signatures to the Virginia State Board of Elections by the June 11, 2013, deadline and did not appear on the ballot as an independent. He transitioned his run into a write-in campaign and said he would pursue a congressional seat if he didn't win the governorship.[42][43] Salahi also scheduled to have a film document his campaign by Campbell Media Group, but the production company faced legal allegations.[44]

Declined

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General election

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Campaign sign for Cuccinelli

Debates and forums

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Cuccinelli challenged McAuliffe to a series of 15 debates around the state.[45] McAuliffe refused, and called Cuccinelli's challenge "absurd"[46] and a "gimmick".[47] Cuccinelli responded, "McAuliffe's campaign might have dismissed the challenge, but it's clear that community leaders and Virginians share our desire to hold real debates across the Commonwealth."[48]

Both candidates agreed to participate in three debates: July 20, 2013, in Hot Springs, sponsored by the Virginia Bar Association; September 25, 2013, in McLean, sponsored by the Fairfax County Chamber of Commerce and broadcast by NBC affiliates throughout Virginia;[49] and a third debate on October 24, 2013, at Virginia Tech.[50]

Cuccinelli declined to appear at the League of Women Voters/AARP debate, calling it a "left-wing, stacked debate".[51] Cuccinelli accepted a debate invitation in Danville for a date in September or October; McAuliffe did not respond.[46]

Sarvis was not invited to the debates or forums; some newspapers, including the Richmond Times Dispatch, The Roanoke Times, and The Daily Progress, called for his inclusion.[52][53][54][55] Barton Hinkle of the Richmond Times Dispatch called the current debate process "stacked" suggesting that debate organizers are activists trying to influence the outcome of the election for their own ideological purposes.[56] Sarvis said he would "debate anybody anywhere under any conditions."[57]

McAuliffe and his campaign repeatedly declined to give a cost for his spending priorities, stating he would pay for them through unspecified government efficiency improvements, the Medicaid expansion, and federal money from Obamacare.[58] McAuliffe said tax increases would not be on the table to pay for policy proposals.[59] Cuccinelli's 2013 campaign conducted an analysis that found McAuliffe's spending plan would cost at least $14 billion – including $12 billion in new spending – over a four-year term and would translate into a $1,700 tax hike on the average Virginia family.[58][60][61] McAuliffe's campaign accused Cuccinelli's campaign of "fabricat[ing]" the numbers.[62]

Virginia Bar Association debate

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Cuccinelli and McAuliffe met in their first debate on Saturday, July 20, 2013, at the Omni Homestead Resort in Hot Springs, Virginia, for the Virginia Bar Association-sponsored debate. Both major party candidates attacked their opponent's record, and they debated one another on issues including transportation, federal healthcare, abortion, Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell, same-sex marriage, and other topics.[63][64][65] PBS' Judy Woodruff moderated the debate.[66] Libertarian Sarvis was not invited to join the debate, but he attended the event to greet voters.[52][66][67]

Virginia Farm Bureau forum

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Cuccinelli and McAuliffe discussed their plans for Virginia's largest industry, agriculture and forest products, on Friday, August 2, 2013, at Wytheville Community College in Wytheville, Virginia. The candidates also discussed topics including transportation and healthcare. The forum was hosted by the Farm Bureau's Young Farmers Committee. Libertarian Sarvis was not invited.[68][69]

Tidewater Community College forum

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Cuccinelli and McAuliffe appeared Tuesday, August 6, 2013, at the Norfolk Waterside Marriott in Norfolk, Virginia at an event hosted by Tidewater Community College. Democrat McAuliffe argued that improving transportation would spur job creation, and he wanted to reform the Standards of Learning and Medicaid. Republican Cuccinelli focused on tax cuts as well as expanding opportunities for veterans and growing Virginia's ports.[70][71] Libertarian Sarvis was not invited to the event, but a spokesman provided a statement about the libertarian candidate.[72]

"Battleground Forum"

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Cuccinelli and McAuliffe took the stage again on August 9, 2013, at the Hylton Performing Arts Center in Manassas, Virginia, hosted by the chambers of commerce from Loudoun, Prince William, Reston and Fredericksburg. Both Cuccinelli and McAuliffe answered a series of questions from representatives from each of the chambers that hosted the forum, and both were called out by the event's moderator for dodging specific questions. The sharpest exchange was between McAuliffe and the forum moderator Derek McGinty, an anchor on WUSA. McAuliffe declined to take a position on the proposed Bi-County Parkway, a controversial project that would cut through Manassas National Battlefield Park to connect Prince William and Loudoun counties.[73] Libertarian Sarvis attended the event but was not included as a candidate,[74][75] which led some political observers, such as the Franklin Center for Government and Public Integrity's project watchdog.org, to say that the number one thing missing from the forum was the invitation to include Sarvis.[76] Four days after moderating the Battleground Forum, WUSA-TV news anchor Derek McGinty said Sarvis should be part of the conversation.[77]

Energy forum in Arlington

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The Consumer Energy Alliance, the National Ocean Industries Association (NOIA), the Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy, and the Virginia Manufacturers Association co-hosted a forum focused on energy with Cuccinelli and McAuliffe on August 29, 2013. Libertarian Sarvis was not invited to the forum. The event took place at the George Mason University School of Law campus in Arlington. Both Cuccinelli and McAuliffe launched broad attacks on one another. Cuccinelli pointed out McAuliffe's inconsistent stances on coal and offshore drilling (McAuliffe made anti-coal and anti-offshore drilling statements during his 2009 campaign but has attempted to take a more centrist position in 2013).[78] Cuccinelli also pointed to the GreenTech scandal enveloping McAuliffe.[78] McAuliffe offered few specifics on his own energy policy plans but attacked Cuccinelli for his lawsuit of a Virginia Tech professor and expert on global warming whom he investigated for fraud, and said Cuccinelli's views on social issues would drive away businesses.[78][79][80][81]

Fairfax County debate

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The Fairfax County Chamber of Commerce and NBC4 hosted a debate between Cuccinelli and McAuliffe on September 25, 2013. NBC political journalist Chuck Todd moderated. The debate was held at the Capital One Bank headquarters in McLean, Virginia, and was aired live on NBC4 and NBC affiliates in Richmond, Charlottesville, Bristol and other Virginia cities.[82] Throughout the debate, both McAuliffe and Cuccinelli attacked their opponent's records and views. McAuliffe focused on Medicaid expansion, failed to answer a question about the price tag of his education plan, and was exposed for not knowing that a state constitutional amendment is required to reverse the state's constitutional ban on same-sex marriage. Cuccinelli focused on his experience in office, defended his social views, and dodged a question about which loopholes he would close. After the debate, the Fairfax County Chamber of Commerce endorsed McAuliffe.[83]

A spokesman said the debate would exclude Sarvis for "no other reason other than our tradition to provide a forum for the two major-party candidates."[84] Sarvis attended the debate and his campaign debuted a television ad, which aired in Northern Virginia.[85][86][87] The Sarvis ad caused Peter Galuszka of The Washington Post to say Sarvis "won" the debate.[88] Five days after the debate moderator Chuck Todd invited Sarvis onto his show, The Daily Rundown, and asked Sarvis questions from the debate.[89]

Virginia Tech debate

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Virginia Tech and WDBJ sponsored a debate between McAuliffe and Cuccinelli on October 24, 2013.

Prior to the debate, Cuccinelli agreed informally to participate, though his campaign asked questions about the rules, including to raise the threshold for a third-party candidate to participate, before formally agreeing. McAuliffe also agreed to the rules.[90] Originally, the announced threshold for inclusion in the debate was ten percent in the polls.[84][90][91][92][93] Later, it would be announced the threshold for inclusion in the debate was ten percent according to the RealClearPolitics average by the October 10 invitation deadline. On October 10, Sarvis was polling at 9% in the RealClearPolitics average, and WDBJ announced that Sarvis would not be included at the debate.[94] Sarvis responded that the debate rules were "designed to exclude."[95][96]

Fundraising

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Campaign finance reports through November 28, 2013
Candidate Spent Votes Cost per Vote
Terry McAuliffe $38,003,836 1,069,789 $35.52
Ken Cuccinelli $20,942,496 1,013,354 $20.67
Robert Sarvis $213,781 146,084 $1.46
Source: Virginia Public Access Project[97][98][99][100]

McAuliffe's funds include $5.7 million from the Democratic Governors Association PAC; $950,000 from the Virginia League of Conservation Voters; over $294,000 he donated to himself; $250,000 from Baltimore Orioles owner Peter Angelos; $120,000 from the Liberian International Ship & Corporate Registry; $100,005 from his father-in-law, Richard Swann; and $100,000 from Bill Clinton.[101] Cuccinelli's funds include $3.97 million from the Republican Governors Association PAC and $500,000 from the Republican Party of Virginia[102] McAuliffe has received 34 contributions of $100,000 or more;[101] Cuccinelli has received six contributions of $100,000 or more.[102]

72% of McAuliffe's campaign contributors are from Virginia, but in the first quarter of 2013, 78% of his total funds came from donors from outside Virginia.[103] 33% of Cuccinelli's funds in the first quarter of 2013 came from donors outside Virginia.[103]

Through the first quarter of 2013 ending on March 31, 2013, McAuliffe had raised $6.7 million, and Cuccinelli had raised $4.4 million.[104]

In the second quarter of 2013, McAuliffe raised $2.2 million, Cuccinelli raised $1.1 million, and Sarvis raised approximately $2,500. Terry McAuliffe's top five donors are from outside Virginia.[98] Three of Ken Cuccinelli's top five donors are from out-of-state.[99]

From July 1, 2013, through August 31, 2013, McAuliffe raised $7,355,246; and Cuccinelli raised $5,688,222.[105] Over that period, McAuliffe received 2,010 contributions of more than $100, and 5,476 contributions of $100 or less;[106] while Cuccinelli received 3,193 contributions of more than $100, and 7,075 contributions of $100 or less.[107] During the same period, McAuliffe's biggest donations included the DGA ($2.7 million); the Virginia League of Conservation Voters ($900,000); the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees ($100,000); Laborers' International Union of North America Education Fund ($100,000); and the United Food and Commercial Workers Active Ballot Club Education Fund ($100,000).[108] Cuccinelli's biggest donations included several energy companies and private individuals; his largest contribution over the period was $30,000.[109] As of August 31, 2013, McAuliffe's campaign has $5,010,223 cash on hand, and Cuccinelli's campaign has $2,234,369 cash on hand.

Spending by outside groups

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Tom Steyer's PAC NextGen Climate Action, Michael Bloomberg's PAC Independence USA, the National Education Association and the Planned Parenthood Action Fund have purchased a combined total of over $4.3 million worth of airtime for television ads supporting McAuliffe or opposing Cuccinelli.[110][111] Americans for Prosperity, Citizens United, the Virginia Principles Fund PAC, NRA Political Victory Fund, the Ending Spending Fund, and the Fight for Tomorrow PAC have purchased a combined total of just over $2 million worth of airtime for television ads supporting Cuccinelli or opposing McAuliffe.[110] Purple PAC, a Libertarian-leaning super PAC, spent over $300,000 in television ads designed to boost the Sarvis campaign before election day.[112]

Endorsements

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Ken Cuccinelli

Elected officials

Others

Organizations

Newspapers

Terry McAuliffe

Current and former statewide politicians

Current and former state-level politicians

National politicians

Others

Organizations

Newspapers

Robert Sarvis

Elected officials

Others

Newspapers

Declined to endorse

Elected officials

Newspapers

Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
Rothenberg Political Report[163] Lean D (flip) October 25, 2013
Sabato's Crystal Ball[164] Likely D (flip) October 24, 2013

Polling

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Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Ken
Cuccinelli (R) 		Terry
McAuliffe (D) 		Robert
Sarvis (L) 		Other/Undecided
[a] 		Margin
Real Clear Politics[165] October 24 – November 3, 2013 November 3, 2013 38.9% 45.6% 9.6% 5.9% McAuliffe 6.7%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Ken
Cuccinelli (R) 		Terry
McAuliffe (D) 		Robert
Sarvis (L) 		Other Undecided
Newsmax/Zogby[166] November 2–4, 2013 600 ± 4.1% 31% 43% 12% 4% 11%
Public Policy Polling[167] November 2–3, 2013 870 ± 3.3% 43% 50% 4% — 3%
Quinnipiac[168] October 29 – November 3, 2013 1,606 ± 2.5% 40% 46% 8% — 5%
42% 49% — 1% 8%
Newsmax/Zogby[169] October 30 – November 1, 2013 600 ± 4.1% 36% 43% 9% 3% 9%
Emerson College[170] October 25–30, 2013 874 ± 3.24% 40% 42% 13% — 5%
Christopher Newport University[171] October 25–30, 2013 1,038 ± 3% 38% 45% 10% — 7%
Rasmussen[172] October 28–29, 2013 1,002 ± 3% 36% 43% 12% 2% 7%
Quinnipiac[173] October 22–28, 2013 1,182 ± 2.9% 41% 45% 9% 1% 4%
45% 47% — 2% 7%
Public Policy Polling[174] October 26–27, 2013 709 EV ± 3.6% 40% 54% 4% — 2%
Hampton University[175] October 24, 26–27, 2013 800 ± 2.9% 36% 42% 12% — 10%
41% 42% — — 17%
Washington Post/Abt SRBI[176] October 24–27, 2013 762 ± 4.5% 39% 51% 8% — 1%
42% 53% — — 5%
Roanoke College[177] October 21–27, 2013 838 ± 3.4% 31% 46% 9% — 15%
Old Dominion Poll[178] October 22, 2013 670 ± 5% 37% 44% 7% 2% 11%
Quinnipiac[179] October 15–21, 2013 1,085 ± 3% 39% 46% 10% 1% 4%
42% 50% — 2% 7%
Rasmussen[172] October 20, 2013 1,000 ± 3% 33% 50% 8% 3% 5%
Public Policy Polling[180] October 19–20, 2013 724 EV ± 3.6% 39% 57% 3% — 1%
NBC News/Marist[181] October 13–15, 2013 596 ± 4% 38% 46% 9% 1% 7%
43% 52% — 1% 4%
Christopher Newport University[182] October 8–13, 2013 753 ± 3.6% 39% 46% 11% — 4%
Quinnipiac[183] October 2–8, 2013 1,180 ± 2.9% 39% 47% 8% — 5%
42% 49% — 1% 7%
PPP/Harper Polling[184] October 5–6, 2013 1,150 ± 2.9% 35% 44% 12% — 8%
42% 52% — — 5%
Watson Center[185] October 1–6, 2013 886 ± 3.1% 38% 47% 8% — 7%
Roanoke College[186] September 30 – October 5, 2013 1,046 ± 3% 34% 40% 9% — 16%
Emerson College[187] September 26–30, 2013 519 ± 4.25% 38% 43% 11% — 8%
Newsmax/Zogby[188] September 27–29, 2013 600 ± 4.1% 27% 32% 13% — 24%
32% 33% — 11% 24%
Hampton University[189] September 25–29, 2013 800 ± 2.9% 37% 42% 8% — 12%
University of Mary Washington[190] September 25–29, 2013 559 ± 4.7% 35% 42% 10% 5% 8%
Rasmussen[191] September 23, 2013 1,050 ± 3% 38% 44% 6% 2% 11%
Washington Post/Abt SRBI[192] September 19–22, 2013 562 ± 5% 39% 47% 10% — 3%
44% 49% — 1% 6%
Conquest Communications[193] September 19, 2013 400 ± 5% 35% 36% 11% — 19%
NBC News/Marist[194] September 17–19, 2013 546 ± 4.2% 38% 43% 8% — 11%
Harper Polling[195] September 15–16, 2013 779 ± 3.51% 37% 42% 10% — 11%
Roanoke College[196] September 9–15, 2013 874 ± 3.3% 36% 37% 9% — 17%
Quinnipiac[197] September 9–15, 2013 1,005 ± 3.1% 41% 44% 7% 1% 6%
Purple Strategies[198] September 6–10, 2013 800 ± 3.5% 38% 43% — — 19%
Rasmussen[199] September 3–4, 2013 998 ± 3% 38% 45% — 7% 10%
Public Policy Polling[200] August 27–28, 2013 500 ± ? 37% 44% 9% — 9%
Emerson College[201] August 23–28, 2013 653 ± 3.8% 35% 45% 10% — 11%
Quinnipiac[202] August 14–19, 2013 1,129 ± 2.9% 42% 48% — 2% 9%
Quinnipiac[203] July 11–15, 2013 1,030 ± 3.1% 39% 43% — 1% 17%
Public Policy Polling[204] July 11–14, 2013 601 ± 4% 37% 41% 7% — 15%
Roanoke College[205] July 8–14, 2013 525 ± 4.3% 37% 31% 5% — 27%
Rasmussen[206] June 5–6, 2013 1,000 ± 3% 41% 44% — 3% 12%
Public Policy Polling[207] May 24–26, 2013 672 ± 3.8% 37% 42% — — 21%
Wenzel Strategies[208] May 14–15, 2013 800 ± 3.4% 44% 36% — — 21%
Quinnipiac[209] May 8–13, 2013 1,286 ± 2.7% 38% 43% — 1% 19%
The Washington Post[210] April 29 – May 2, 2013 1,000 ± 3.5% 46% 41% — — 13%
NBC News/Marist[211] April 28 – May 2, 2013 1,095 ± 3% 41% 43% — 1% 16%
Roanoke College[212] April 8–14, 2013 639 ± 3.9% 34% 29% — — 38%
Quinnipiac[213] March 20–25, 2013 1,098 ± 3% 40% 38% — 2% 20%
University of Mary Washington[214] March 20–24, 2013 1,004 ± 3.5% 37% 38% — — 25%
Quinnipiac[215] February 14–18, 2013 1,112 ± 2.9% 38% 38% — 1% 23%
Roanoke College[216] January 14–22, 2013 583 ± 4.1% 33% 26% — — 41%
Christopher Newport University[217] January 14–20, 2013 1,015 ± 3.1% 30% 31% — 6% 33%
Quinnipiac[218] January 4–7, 2013 1,134 ± 2.9% 39% 40% — 2% 19%
Public Policy Polling[219] January 4–6, 2013 602 ± 4% 41% 46% — — 13%
Quinnipiac[220] November 8–12, 2012 1,469 ± 2.6% 37% 41% — 1% 22%
Public Policy Polling[221] August 16–19, 2012 855 ± 3.4% 40% 40% — — 20%
Public Policy Polling[222] July 5–8, 2012 647 ± 3.9% 37% 41% — — 22%
Public Policy Polling[20] April 26–29, 2012 680 ± 3.8% 36% 41% — — 23%
Public Policy Polling[223] December 10–12, 2011 600 ± 4% 41% 40% — — 20%
Public Policy Polling[224] July 21–24, 2011 500 ± 4.4% 41% 38% — — 22%
Hypothetical polling

With Bolling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Bill
Bolling (R) 		Gerry
Connolly (D) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[223] December 10–12, 2011 600 ± 4% 39% 36% — 24%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Bill
Bolling (R) 		Terry
McAuliffe (D) 		Other Undecided
Quinnipiac[220] November 8–12, 2012 1,469 ± 2.6% 36% 38% 1% 25%
Public Policy Polling[221] August 16–19, 2012 855 ± 3.4% 40% 37% — 23%
Public Policy Polling[222] July 5–8, 2012 647 ± 3.9% 36% 33% — 31%
Public Policy Polling[20] April 26–29, 2012 680 ± 3.8% 36% 34% — 30%
Public Policy Polling[223] December 10–12, 2011 600 ± 4% 39% 36% — 25%
Public Policy Polling[224] July 21–24, 2011 500 ± 4.4% 38% 33% — 29%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Bill
Bolling (R) 		Tom
Perriello (D) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[221] August 16–19, 2012 855 ± 3.4% 39% 36% — 25%
Public Policy Polling[222] July 5–8, 2012 647 ± 3.9% 38% 32% — 30%
Public Policy Polling[20] April 26–29, 2012 680 ± 3.8% 35% 34% — 31%
Public Policy Polling[223] December 10–12, 2011 600 ± 4% 39% 35% — 26%
Public Policy Polling[224] July 21–24, 2011 500 ± 4.4% 39% 32% — 29%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Bill
Bolling (R) 		Mark
Warner (D) 		Other Undecided
Quinnipiac[220] November 8–12, 2012 1,469 ± 2.6% 33% 53% — 15%
Public Policy Polling[221] August 16–19, 2012 855 ± 3.4% 36% 50% — 14%
Public Policy Polling[222] July 5–8, 2012 647 ± 3.9% 35% 49% — 16%
Public Policy Polling[20] April 26–29, 2012 680 ± 3.8% 32% 53% — 14%

With Cuccinelli

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Ken
Cuccinelli (R) 		Gerry
Connolly (D) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[223] December 10–12, 2011 600 ± 4% 40% 41% — 20%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Ken
Cuccinelli (R) 		Tom
Perriello (D) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[221] August 16–19, 2012 855 ± 3.4% 39% 41% — 20%
Public Policy Polling[222] July 5–8, 2012 647 ± 3.9% 39% 38% — 23%
Public Policy Polling[20] April 26–29, 2012 680 ± 3.8% 36% 39% — 25%
Public Policy Polling[223] December 10–12, 2011 600 ± 4% 41% 41% — 19%
Public Policy Polling[224] July 21–24, 2011 500 ± 4.4% 41% 36% — 23%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Ken
Cuccinelli (R) 		Mark
Warner (D) 		Other Undecided
Quinnipiac[220] November 8–12, 2012 1,469 ± 2.6% 34% 52% — 15%
Public Policy Polling[221] August 16–19, 2012 855 ± 3.4% 36% 53% — 11%
Public Policy Polling[222] July 5–8, 2012 647 ± 3.9% 37% 51% — 13%
Public Policy Polling[20] April 26–29, 2012 680 ± 3.8% 33% 53% — 14%

Three-way race

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Ken
Cuccinelli (R) 		Terry
McAuliffe (D) 		Bill
Bolling (I) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[167] November 2–3, 2013 870 ± 3.3% 32% 34% 22% — 13%
Quinnipiac[215] February 14–18, 2013 1,112 ± 2.9% 31% 34% 13% — 22%
Roanoke College[216] January 14–22, 2013 583 ± 4.1% 25% 19% 12% — 44%
Christopher Newport University[217] January 14–20, 2013 1,015 ± 3.1% 27% 27% 9% — 37%
Quinnipiac[218] January 4–7, 2013 1,134 ± 2.9% 34% 34% 13% — 19%
Public Policy Polling[219] January 4–6, 2013 602 ± 4% 32% 40% 15% — 13%

Results

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Polls indicated McAuliffe would win comfortably on Election Day. However, the race was much closer than expected. Cuccinelli led for a good portion of the evening. However, Fairfax County, a suburb of Washington D.C., is heavily Democratic, and is often one of the last parts of the state to count their votes. With around 90% of the vote McAuliffe took the lead for the first time. McAuliffe's lead continued to grow as Fairfax County came in. With 96% of the vote counted, CNN called the race for McAuliffe. At 10:06 P.M. EST, Cuccinelli called McAuliffe to concede defeat. Ralph Northam, also a Democrat, won the race for lieutenant governor, making the governor and the lieutenant governor both Democrats for the first time since 2006.

Virginia gubernatorial election, 2013[225]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Terry McAuliffe 1,069,789 47.75% 6.50%
Republican Ken Cuccinelli 1,013,354 45.23% −13.38%
Libertarian Robert Sarvis 146,084 6.52% N/A
Write-in 11,087 0.49% 0.37%
Total votes 2,240,314 100.00% N/A
Democratic gain from Republican

By county and city

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County[225] McAuliffe Votes Cuccinelli Votes Sarvis Votes Others Votes
Accomack 41.9% 3,806 53.7% 4,879 4.2% 382 0.2% 19
Albemarle 54.3% 19,039 35.4% 12,408 9.3% 3,279 1.0% 362
Alexandria 71.8% 29,584 22.8% 9,405 4.9% 2,029 0.5% 200
Alleghany 39.4% 1,628 48.2% 1,993 11.8% 487 0.7% 28
Amelia 31.4% 1,338 61.4% 2,613 6.8% 290 0.4% 16
Amherst 33.1% 2,993 60.5% 5,466 6.1% 550 0.3% 30
Appomattox 24.4% 1,241 68.4% 3,475 6.8% 348 0.4% 20
Arlington 71.6% 48,346 22.2% 14,978 5.8% 3,934 0.4% 281
Augusta 25.0% 5,100 67.7% 13,817 6.9% 1,404 0.4% 88
Bath 32.3% 392 56.6% 686 10.5% 127 0.7% 8
Bedford 23.2% 5,802 69.3% 17,330 7.1% 1,769 0.5% 119
Bland 21.0% 388 70.3% 1,300 8.1% 150 0.6% 11
Botetourt 25.8% 2,924 65.1% 7,366 8.2% 931 0.8% 92
Bristol 32.7% 1,305 63.5% 2,536 3.3% 133 0.6% 22
Brunswick 59.8% 2,704 35.8% 1,618 4.2% 188 0.3% 13
Buchanan 30.1% 1,461 67.5% 3,275 2.2% 105 0.2% 8
Buckingham 43.3% 1,804 49.3% 2,053 7.0% 292 0.3% 14
Buena Vista 33.9% 422 57.9% 721 7.8% 97 0.4% 5
Campbell 23.4% 3,712 70.2% 11,133 5.9% 940 0.5% 82
Caroline 48.7% 3,794 43.4% 3,380 7.2% 564 0.6% 47
Carroll 27.7% 2,182 64.2% 5,061 7.7% 603 0.4% 32
Charles City 61.3% 1,558 32.6% 828 5.7% 145 0.4% 11
Charlotte 36.4% 1,358 56.4% 2,104 7.0% 262 0.2% 8
Charlottesville 75.5% 9,440 15.4% 1,922 8.2% 1,026 1.0% 120
Chesapeake 48.7% 30,838 45.6% 28,855 5.4% 3,391 0.3% 193
Chesterfield 40.8% 42,865 48.7% 51,114 9.5% 9,949 1.0% 1,064
Clarke 40.8% 2,002 52.9% 2,596 6.1% 301 0.2% 8
Colonial Heights 22.4% 1,131 65.6% 3,319 11.1% 560 1.0% 50
Covington 46.3% 590 40.2% 513 12.6% 161 0.9% 11
Craig 24.3% 396 65.1% 1,063 10.3% 168 0.3% 5
Culpeper 32.9% 3,923 60.9% 7,272 5.7% 678 0.6% 67
Cumberland 40.9% 1,190 50.1% 1,456 8.7% 252 0.3% 10
Danville 49.7% 5,389 44.5% 4,824 5.5% 595 0.3% 28
Dickenson 34.5% 1,184 61.9% 2,125 3.1% 105 0.6% 19
Dinwiddie 45.3% 3,380 47.0% 3,507 7.4% 549 0.3% 22
Emporia 59.6% 987 34.4% 569 5.4% 90 0.5% 9
Essex 44.3% 1,381 47.7% 1,487 7.2% 225 0.7% 22
Fairfax County 58.3% 178,746 36.1% 110,681 5.2% 15,828 0.4% 1,175
Fairfax 55.4% 3,987 38.6% 2,777 5.5% 397 0.5% 35
Falls Church 71.3% 3,523 23.1% 1,142 5.1% 253 0.5% 24
Fauquier 35.1% 7,376 59.9% 12,565 4.7% 992 0.3% 59
Floyd 32.5% 1,488 57.6% 2,636 9.3% 427 0.6% 29
Fluvanna 42.3% 3,348 47.7% 3,774 9.3% 736 0.7% 52
Franklin County 29.1% 4,756 61.3% 10,011 8.9% 1,453 0.6% 104
Franklin 59.1% 1,362 36.2% 833 4.0% 92 0.7% 16
Frederick 30.8% 6,339 63.8% 13,148 5.2% 1,070 0.2% 48
Fredericksburg 57.4% 3,488 35.5% 2,154 6.6% 400 0.5% 30
Galax 35.4% 455 56.7% 728 7.6% 98 0.3% 4
Giles 30.8% 1,541 58.9% 2,944 9.7% 487 0.5% 25
Gloucester 32.4% 3,633 59.7% 6,688 7.7% 862 0.2% 21
Goochland 33.5% 3,077 56.0% 5,155 9.1% 839 1.4% 127
Grayson 28.8% 1,400 63.8% 3,094 7.4% 359 0.0% 0
Greene 32.1% 1,719 57.3% 3,069 10.0% 534 0.6% 30
Greensville 60.1% 1,724 35.3% 1,012 4.5% 130 0.1% 4
Halifax 39.0% 3,909 54.2% 5,432 6.2% 622 0.6% 59
Hampton 66.6% 24,631 28.1% 10,384 5.1% 1,902 0.1% 54
Hanover 28.0% 10,862 60.3% 23,415 9.9% 3,860 1.8% 683
Harrisonburg 52.1% 4,190 40.3% 3,236 7.1% 572 0.5% 39
Henrico 51.2% 53,132 38.0% 39,400 9.4% 9,709 1.4% 1,448
Henry 33.7% 4,558 59.3% 8,024 6.8% 917 0.3% 34
Highland 30.9% 279 61.7% 557 7.0% 63 0.4% 4
Hopewell 46.0% 2,499 45.1% 2,446 8.4% 456 0.5% 28
Isle of Wight 39.8% 4,843 53.8% 6,547 6.2% 748 0.2% 24
James City 42.1% 11,344 51.1% 13,756 6.4% 1,722 0.3% 94
King and Queen 44.1% 968 47.8% 1,051 7.1% 156 1.0% 22
King George 34.3% 2,289 59.8% 3,985 5.7% 382 0.2% 12
King William 31.9% 1,671 56.8% 2,976 10.4% 543 0.9% 48
Lancaster 39.4% 1,786 52.2% 2,367 7.3% 329 1.2% 55
Lee 24.6% 1,180 73.1% 3,507 2.1% 101 0.2% 8
Lexington 61.6% 936 32.9% 499 4.3% 65 1.3% 19
Loudoun 49.6% 44,369 45.2% 40,464 5.0% 4,502 0.2% 205
Louisa 35.6% 3,546 54.1% 5,381 9.8% 972 0.5% 54
Lunenburg 41.7% 1,397 50.9% 1,705 7.0% 234 0.3% 11
Lynchburg 39.9% 7,923 53.6% 10,632 6.0% 1,188 0.5% 109
Madison 34.8% 1,575 55.5% 2,510 9.3% 420 0.4% 17
Manassas 48.7% 4,013 46.5% 3,828 4.6% 381 0.2% 19
Manassas Park 53.7% 1,142 41.8% 888 4.4% 93 0.1% 3
Martinsville 50.8% 1,723 41.6% 1,411 7.1% 240 0.5% 18
Mathews 34.2% 1,194 58.6% 2,044 6.1% 214 1.0% 35
Mecklenburg 40.2% 3,038 55.9% 4,226 3.5% 263 0.4% 27
Middlesex 35.1% 1,375 54.4% 2,131 10.0% 391 0.5% 21
Montgomery 45.8% 10,689 43.4% 10,133 10.3% 2,394 0.6% 133
Nelson 47.0% 2,523 43.1% 2,314 9.3% 497 0.7% 35
New Kent 29.0% 2,120 59.6% 4,365 10.5% 766 1.0% 70
Newport News 59.1% 25,085 34.9% 14,803 5.8% 2,444 0.2% 87
Norfolk 68.5% 31,708 25.2% 11,654 5.8% 2,703 0.4% 195
Northampton 51.8% 2,048 40.2% 1,589 7.6% 301 0.3% 12
Northumberland 37.5% 1,961 54.0% 2,823 7.5% 394 1.0% 53
Norton 39.7% 346 55.3% 482 4.2% 37 0.7% 6
Nottoway 43.9% 1,756 47.5% 1,899 8.2% 327 0.5% 19
Orange 36.3% 3,629 55.6% 5,561 7.7% 767 0.4% 38
Page 32.9% 2,001 61.7% 3,754 5.1% 313 0.3% 21
Patrick 26.8% 1,373 69.3% 3,553 3.7% 191 0.1% 7
Petersburg 87.5% 7,260 9.6% 798 2.7% 223 0.2% 19
Pittsylvania 29.7% 5,419 64.0% 11,682 6.0% 1,090 0.4% 64
Poquoson 23.6% 1,040 67.7% 2,987 8.5% 377 0.2% 11
Portsmouth 68.1% 17,671 26.1% 6,776 5.5% 1,428 0.3% 78
Powhatan 22.8% 2,327 66.2% 6,748 9.8% 995 1.2% 127
Prince Edward 50.1% 2,674 42.2% 2,252 7.3% 389 0.4% 23
Prince George 38.4% 3,580 53.8% 5,011 7.2% 674 0.5% 51
Prince William 51.9% 50,441 43.7% 42,431 4.2% 4,084 0.2% 160
Pulaski 32.0% 2,581 58.5% 4,720 8.8% 713 0.6% 48
Radford 46.6% 1,364 42.9% 1,254 9.8% 287 0.6% 19
Rappahannock 44.2% 1,290 51.3% 1,499 4.2% 123 0.3% 8
Richmond County 36.3% 836 56.3% 1,295 6.5% 150 0.9% 20
Richmond 73.4% 42,957 16.8% 9,854 8.9% 5,226 0.9% 517
Roanoke County 31.8% 9,844 58.2% 18,040 8.8% 2,718 1.2% 371
Roanoke 53.8% 11,714 35.7% 7,786 9.6% 2,099 0.8% 182
Rockbridge 36.2% 2,431 54.2% 3,640 8.8% 588 0.9% 61
Rockingham 25.9% 5,725 67.6% 14,968 6.0% 1,317 0.5% 118
Russell 31.6% 1,914 64.8% 3,920 3.3% 201 0.3% 16
Salem 32.4% 2,324 56.0% 4,019 10.2% 732 1.4% 101
Scott 21.9% 1,158 75.6% 4,001 2.3% 124 0.2% 10
Shenandoah 30.7% 3,565 63.3% 7,345 5.6% 649 0.4% 44
Smyth 30.6% 2,307 64.8% 4,880 4.3% 323 0.3% 22
Southampton 44.7% 2,295 50.3% 2,578 4.6% 237 0.4% 19
Spotsylvania 38.5% 12,220 56.0% 17,755 5.2% 1,657 0.3% 98
Stafford 40.0% 13,657 54.5% 18,595 5.1% 1,756 0.3% 113
Staunton 47.2% 3,058 44.3% 2,869 7.8% 503 0.6% 42
Suffolk 54.2% 13,132 40.9% 9,906 4.7% 1,143 0.2% 59
Surry 58.8% 1,576 36.5% 977 4.3% 116 0.3% 9
Sussex 56.5% 1,834 38.8% 1,259 4.4% 144 0.3% 9
Tazewell 23.3% 2,358 73.9% 7,490 2.7% 275 0.1% 12
Virginia Beach 45.6% 49,357 47.6% 51,494 6.5% 7,023 0.4% 379
Warren 35.0% 3,392 60.5% 5,873 4.3% 416 0.2% 21
Washington 27.2% 3,936 69.0% 9,989 3.6% 520 0.3% 40
Waynesboro 38.3% 1,918 51.9% 2,598 9.2% 460 0.6% 30
Westmoreland 47.4% 2,115 47.4% 2,116 4.9% 217 0.4% 17
Williamsburg 63.0% 2,748 30.6% 1,337 5.8% 254 0.6% 25
Winchester 46.3% 2,631 47.5% 2,702 5.7% 326 0.4% 25
Wise 26.4% 2,196 70.0% 5,830 3.3% 273 0.3% 25
Wythe 26.6% 2,049 64.4% 4,967 8.3% 641 0.7% 55
York 36.7% 7,745 56.4% 11,923 6.7% 1,418 0.2% 43
 
 

Counties and independent cities that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties and independent cities that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

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Despite losing the state, Cuccinelli won 7 of 11 congressional districts, while McAuliffe won 4, including one held by a Republican.[226]

District Cuccinelli McAuliffe Representative
1st 52.36% 41.56% Rob Wittman
2nd 46.16% 47.13% Scott Rigell
3rd 19.09% 75.45% Robert C. Scott
4th 48.07% 45.29% Randy Forbes
5th 51.43% 41.3% Robert Hurt
6th 57.82% 35.02% Bob Goodlatte
7th 51.81% 38.24% Eric Cantor
8th 26.64% 68.13% Jim Moran
9th 61.11% 32.23% Morgan Griffith
10th 47.88% 46.96% Frank Wolf
11th 34.75% 60.28% Gerry Connolly

Analysis

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The result was somewhat surprising because many polls showed McAuliffe with a larger margin of victory over Cuccinelli than he ended up with. The Libertarian candidate was seen as having a large impact on the polls, his presence complicating them and adding "uncertainty to the ballot test". The polling for the lieutenant governor and attorney general elections, which did not feature a third-party candidate, was much more accurate.[227] Although Sarvis also under-performed, this best result for a third-party candidate in Virginia since 1965. This was the first time since 1885 that a party was voted out of the governor's mansion after just one term.

See also

edit

Notes

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  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.

References

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