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2008 United States presidential election in Montana

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Main article: 2008 United States presidential election

The 2008 United States presidential election in Montana took place on November 4, 2008, and was part of the 2008 United States presidential election. Voters chose three representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

2008 United States presidential election in Montana
← 2004 November 4, 2008 2012 →
 
Nominee John McCain Barack Obama
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Arizona Illinois
Running mate Sarah Palin Joe Biden
Electoral vote 3 0
Popular vote 242,763 231,667
Percentage 49.51% 47.25%
County Results
President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

Elected President

Barack Obama
Democratic

Montana was won by Republican nominee John McCain by 11,096 votes, a 2.26% margin of victory. Before the election, Montana was initially viewed as safe Republican, but was viewed as lean Republican or toss-up in the final weeks. Historically the state is a Republican stronghold, but polls during the 2008 election showed Democrat Barack Obama just narrowly trailing Republican John McCain within the margin of error. On election day, McCain narrowly carried Montana. It was the fourth-closest state in the nation, behind Missouri, North Carolina, and Indiana, Missouri being a former bellwether state, and the other three being traditionally Republican states.

Despite the fact that Bill Clinton carried the state in 1992, Barack Obama's 47.25% of the vote was (and as of 2020 remains) the highest percent of the vote received by any Democratic candidate for president since 1964. Bill Clinton's victory in 1992 and near miss in 1996 were attributed to Ross Perot's strong third party candidacy in 1992 and 1996, the only other elections since 1964 when Montana was decided by under 5%. Obama was able to flip seven of Montana's counties from Republican to Democratic compared to the 2004 election.

Primaries

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Campaign

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Predictions

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There were 15 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

Source Ranking
D.C. Political Report[1] Likely R
Cook Political Report[2] Toss-up
The Takeaway[3] Lean R
Electoral-vote.com[4] Lean R
Washington Post[5] Lean R
Politico[6] Lean R
RealClearPolitics[7] Toss-up
FiveThirtyEight[5] Toss-up
The New York Times[8] Lean R
CNN[9] Toss-up
NPR[5] Lean R
MSNBC[5] Toss-up
Fox News[10] Likely R
Associated Press[11] Likely R
Rasmussen Reports[12] Toss-up

Polling

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Main article: Statewide opinion polling for the 2008 United States presidential election: Montana

Although Republican George W. Bush of Texas carried Montana by double digits in both 2000 and 2004, polls taken throughout July indicated a close race between Republican John McCain of Arizona and Democrat Barack Obama of Illinois. When Governor Sarah Palin of Alaska was announced as McCain's running mate in late August, however, McCain took a double-digit lead in the state that lasted until the middle of October, when polling once again showed the two candidates within striking distance of each other in the state. When the actual 2008 presidential election took place, McCain carried the state by about 2.38%.[13] The state's results were significantly closer than they were in the 2004 election when George W. Bush carried the state by a margin of 20 points.[14]

Fundraising

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John McCain raised a total of $386,940 in the state. Barack Obama raised $1,089,874.[15]

Advertising and visits

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Obama and his interest groups spent $1,732,467. McCain and his interest groups spent just $134,805.[16] The Democratic ticket visited the state three times and McCain did not visit the state.[17]

Analysis

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Montana, a Republican-leaning state, has voted for the Republican presidential nominee in every election since 1968 except in 1992 when the state narrowly supported Democrat Bill Clinton to Republican George H. W. Bush.

Obama did very well among the Democratic base of Montana, which consists of three sections. Students in Missoula County, which is home to the University of Montana, helped him win a three-to-two margin there. In the southwest, Obama won more than 65% of the vote in Deer Lodge County and Silver Bow County—Democratic strongholds which have voted Republican only twice since 1912; Obama also became the first Democratic presidential nominee to win Gallatin County, home to Bozeman, since Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1944. Finally, Native Americans gave Obama strong support; in the eastern part of the state, Obama only won counties in which Native Americans composed at least 30% of the population.

McCain's base was in the eastern part of the state, which is less unionized and more rural. It is home to more ranchers and fewer miners than elsewhere. Only five counties voted Democratic in the east. In Western Montana, McCain generally won wherever Obama's Democratic base was lacking. His biggest margins came from the region bordering the GOP bastion of Idaho.

There was also a relatively high third-party vote, totaling 3.26%. The Montana Constitution Party ran libertarian-leaning Republican U.S. Representative Ron Paul of Texas on their line (against his wishes), winning 2.17% of the vote in Montana, which was the highest statewide percentage total for any third-party candidate in the 2008 presidential election. A significant number of write-in candidates also ran in the state, with some beating third-party candidates.

During the same election, incumbent Democratic Governor Brian Schweitzer was reelected to a second term in a landslide over Republican Roy Brown and Libertarian Stan Jones. Winning by more than a two-to-one margin, Schweitzer received 65.21% of the vote while Brown took in 32.77% and Jones got 2.03%. Also during the same election, incumbent Democratic Senator Max Baucus was handily reelected to a sixth term over perennial candidate Bob Kelleher running as a Republican, no third-party candidate was in the race. Due to Kelleher's policies, such as adopting a parliamentary system in the United States, adopting a single-payer healthcare system, and nationalizing American oil and gas industries, he received no support from Montana GOP, and Baucus defeated Kelleher by nearly a 3-to-1 margin, taking in 72.92% over Kelleher's 27.08% and winning every single county in the state. At the state level, however, Republicans picked up three seats in the Montana Senate and gained control of the chamber. Democrats picked up the office of Secretary of State.

As of the 2020 presidential election, this is the last election where Montana was seriously contested, as well as the last one in which Lake County, Cascade County, Rosebud County, and Lewis and Clark County voted for the Democratic candidate. This is the last time the Big Sky Country would be decided by a single-digit margin, and the last time a candidate won the state with less than half of the vote. Obama became the first ever Democrat to win the White House without carrying Mineral or Sheridan Counties.

Results

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2008 United States presidential election in Montana[18]
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Republican John McCain Sarah Palin 242,763 49.51% 3
Democratic Barack Obama Joe Biden 231,667 47.25% 0
Constitution Ron Paul (no campaign) Michael Peroutka 10,638 2.17% 0
Independent Ralph Nader Matt Gonzalez 3,686 0.75% 0
Libertarian Bob Barr Wayne Allyn Root 1,355 0.28% 0
(write-in) Write-in candidates 193 0.04% 0
Totals 490,302 100.00% 3
Voter turnout (Voting age population) 67.4%

By county

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County John McCain
Republican 		Barack Obama
Democratic 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Beaverhead 3,008 63.15% 1,617 33.95% 138 2.90% 1,391 29.20% 4,763
Big Horn 1,628 31.19% 3,516 67.37% 75 1.44% -1,888 -36.18% 5,219
Blaine 1,139 38.93% 1,702 58.17% 85 2.90% -563 -19.24% 2,926
Broadwater 1,875 66.80% 857 30.53% 75 2.67% 1,018 36.27% 2,807
Carbon 3,108 54.05% 2,443 42.49% 199 3.46% 665 11.56% 5,750
Carter 573 79.36% 111 15.37% 38 5.27% 462 63.99% 722
Cascade 16,857 47.62% 17,664 49.90% 875 2.48% -807 -2.28% 35,396
Chouteau 1,634 57.11% 1,122 39.22% 105 3.67% 512 17.89% 2,861
Custer 3,047 55.89% 2,267 41.58% 138 2.53% 780 14.31% 5,452
Daniels 694 64.68% 343 31.97% 36 3.35% 351 32.71% 1,073
Dawson 2,639 59.38% 1,593 35.85% 212 4.77% 1,046 23.53% 4,444
Deer Lodge 1,502 29.60% 3,402 67.05% 170 3.35% -1,900 -37.45% 5,074
Fallon 1,064 74.25% 318 22.19% 51 3.56% 746 52.06% 1,433
Fergus 4,108 65.92% 1,933 31.02% 191 3.06% 2,175 34.90% 6,232
Flathead 25,559 58.43% 16,138 36.89% 2,047 4.68% 9,421 21.54% 43,744
Gallatin 22,578 46.77% 24,205 50.14% 1,489 3.09% -1,627 -3.37% 48,272
Garfield 598 82.26% 110 15.13% 19 2.61% 488 67.13% 727
Glacier 1,451 29.19% 3,423 68.86% 97 1.95% -1,972 -39.67% 4,971
Golden Valley 343 69.72% 124 25.20% 25 5.08% 219 44.52% 492
Granite 1,013 58.96% 601 34.98% 104 6.06% 412 23.98% 1,718
Hill 2,787 42.07% 3,596 54.28% 242 3.65% -809 -12.21% 6,625
Jefferson 3,538 55.80% 2,582 40.72% 221 3.48% 956 15.08% 6,341
Judith Basin 801 64.81% 397 32.12% 38 3.07% 404 32.69% 1,236
Lake 6,498 46.56% 6,766 48.48% 692 4.96% -268 -1.92% 13,956
Lewis and Clark 14,966 45.31% 17,114 51.82% 949 2.87% -2,148 -6.51% 33,029
Liberty 863 59.34% 367 36.66% 40 4.00% 227 22.68% 1,001
Lincoln 5,704 61.82% 3,025 32.78% 498 5.40% 2,679 29.04% 9,227
Madison 2,822 61.78% 1,607 35.18% 139 3.04% 1,215 26.60% 4,568
McCone 726 66.54% 321 29.42% 44 4.04% 405 37.12% 1,091
Meagher 624 64.60% 298 30.85% 44 4.55% 326 33.75% 966
Mineral 1,053 52.73% 845 42.31% 99 4.96% 208 10.42% 1,997
Missoula 20,743 34.99% 36,531 61.63% 2,003 3.38% -15,788 -26.64% 59,277
Musselshell 1,581 68.56% 636 27.58% 89 3.86% 945 40.98% 2,306
Park 4,376 49.18% 4,173 46.90% 349 3.92% 203 2.28% 8,898
Petroleum 227 75.67% 68 22.67% 5 1.66% 159 53.00% 300
Phillips 1,423 67.03% 638 30.05% 62 2.92% 785 36.98% 2,123
Pondera 1,588 55.04% 1,223 42.39% 74 2.57% 365 12.65% 2,885
Powder River 802 77.26% 208 20.04% 28 2.70% 863 57.22% 1,038
Powell 1,683 59.81% 1,021 36.28% 110 3.91% 662 23.53% 2,814
Prairie 503 68.44% 211 28.71% 21 2.85% 292 39.73% 735
Ravalli 13,002 58.83% 8,400 38.01% 699 3.16% 4,602 20.82% 22,101
Richland 3,184 70.50% 1,203 26.64% 129 2.86% 1,981 43.86% 4,516
Roosevelt 1,473 35.47% 2,564 61.74% 116 2.79% -1,091 -26.27% 4,153
Rosebud 1,768 46.40% 1,919 50.37% 123 3.23% -151 -3.97% 3,810
Sanders 3,563 60.72% 1,970 33.57% 335 5.71% 1,593 27.15% 5,868
Sheridan 987 49.20% 953 47.51% 66 3.29% 34 1.69% 2,006
Silver Bow 4,818 28.27% 11,676 68.51% 548 3.22% -6,858 -40.24% 17,042
Stillwater 2,991 64.09% 1,512 32.40% 164 3.51% 1,479 31.69% 4,667
Sweet Grass 1,494 71.72% 541 25.97% 48 2.31% 953 45.75% 2,083
Teton 1,874 57.27% 1,294 39.55% 104 3.18% 580 17.72% 3,272
Toole 1,317 62.09% 737 34.75% 67 3.16% 580 27.34% 2,121
Treasure 314 64.61% 156 32.10% 16 3.29% 158 32.51% 486
Valley 2,121 54.23% 1,645 42.06% 145 3.71% 476 12.17% 3,911
Wheatland 657 66.84% 289 29.40% 37 3.76% 368 37.44% 983
Wibaux 379 67.32% 146 25.93% 38 6.75% 233 41.39% 563
Yellowstone 36,483 51.62% 32,038 45.33% 2,158 3.05% 4,445 6.29% 70,679
Totals 243,882 49.49% 232,159 47.11% 16,709 3.39% 11,723 2.38% 492,750
 
County Flips:

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

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By congressional district

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Due to the state's low population, only one congressional district is allocated, the At-Large District. This district covers the entire state, and thus is equivalent to the statewide election results.

District McCain Obama Representative
At-large 49.5% 47.1% Denny Rehberg

Electors

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Main article: List of 2008 United States presidential electors

Technically the voters of Montana cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Montana is allocated 3 electors because it has 1 congressional district and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 3 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 3 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.[19] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 3 were pledged to John McCain and Sarah Palin:[20]

  1. Thelma Baker
  2. John Brenden
  3. Errol Galt

See also

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References

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  1. ^ "D.C.'s Political Report: The complete source for campaign summaries". January 1, 2009. Archived from the original on January 1, 2009. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
  2. ^ "Presidential". May 5, 2015. Archived from the original on May 5, 2015. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
  3. ^ "Vote 2008 - The Takeaway - Track the Electoral College vote predictions". April 22, 2009. Archived from the original on April 22, 2009. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
  4. ^ "Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily". electoral-vote.com. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
  5. ^ a b c d Based on Takeaway
  6. ^ "POLITICO's 2008 Swing State Map - POLITICO.com". www.politico.com. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
  7. ^ "RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map". Archived from the original on June 5, 2008.
  8. ^ Nagourney, Adam; Zeleny, Jeff; Carter, Shan (November 4, 2008). "The Electoral Map: Key States". The New York Times. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  9. ^ "October – 2008 – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs". CNN. October 31, 2008. Archived from the original on June 19, 2010. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  10. ^ "Winning The Electoral College". Fox News. April 27, 2010.
  11. ^ "roadto270". hosted.ap.org. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
  12. ^ "Election 2008: Electoral College Update - Rasmussen Reports". www.rasmussenreports.com. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
  13. ^ "RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - Montana". Retrieved November 26, 2008.
  14. ^ "Electoral-vote.com". Retrieved November 26, 2008.
  15. ^ "Presidential Campaign Finance". Archived from the original on March 24, 2009. Retrieved August 19, 2009.
  16. ^ "Map: Campaign Ad Spending - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  17. ^ "Map: Campaign Candidate Visits - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  18. ^ "FEC Election Results 2008" (PDF).
  19. ^ "Electoral College". California Secretary of State. Archived from the original on October 30, 2008. Retrieved November 1, 2008.
  20. ^ "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on November 7, 2008. Retrieved November 11, 2008.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
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