Wikipedia

Harrow East (UK Parliament constituency)

Harrow East is a constituency[n 1] in Greater London created in 1945 and represented in the House of Commons of the UK Parliament since 2010 by Bob Blackman, a Conservative.[n 2]

Harrow East
Borough constituency
for the House of Commons
Map
Interactive map of boundaries from 2024
Location within Greater London
CountyGreater London
Electorate76,299 (2023) [1]
Major settlementsStanmore, Kenton, Queensbury, Belmont, Harrow Weald, Canons Park
Current constituency
Created1945
Member of ParliamentBob Blackman (Conservative)
SeatsOne
Created fromHendon & Harrow (parts of)

Constituency profile

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The censuses of 2001 and 2011 show the overwhelmingly most common housing type of the area to be semi-detached houses – almost a majority – followed by mid-rise apartments (whether purpose-built or converted from older houses), then terraced houses and then detached houses. They also show a consistently lower-than-average proportion of social housing than for Greater London.[2]

The constituency is served by three separate commuter railway lines running into central London, and has many parks and sports grounds. Few arterial roads bisect Harrow East – further east is the start of the M1 motorway, and in the middle of seats further south in north-west London are the A40 Western Avenue and North Circular Road, omitting the boundaries drawn from the arterial road-building projects of the 1940s-to-1970s period.

History

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The seat was created in 1945 and has been varied due to two sets of major ward reconfigurations and by other national boundary reforms. The predecessor seats were Hendon and to a much lesser extent Harrow.

Since 1945 it has been a stronger area for the Labour Party than neighbouring Harrow West; nevertheless, the seat been mostly held by the Conservative Party. Labour did win here in landslide victories in 1945, 1966 and 1997, and after the latter, held on in the two subsequent general elections. The seat was regained in 2010 by a Conservative on a high turnout, though Labour's incumbent managed to hold on to Harrow West, largely due to boundary changes which favoured Labour there. Residents in the borough include fewer people in the category of no qualifications than the national average, in 2011, at 16.8%;[3] Notably, Harrow East was the most ethnically diverse Conservative-held constituency in the general elections of 2015 and 2017, apparently bucking a trend whereby the party is generally less supported than Labour among ethnic minorities.[4]

Commencing with the 1979 general election, the seat has been a bellwether by reflecting the national result. The 2017 result produced the 29th-most marginal majority of the Conservative Party's 317 seats by percentage of majority.[5]

By the 2024 general election, it had bucked its bellwether status by being the sole seat in the United Kingdom in which the Conservative candidate won more than 50% of the vote, despite a landslide national victory for the Labour Party. It also saw the second-largest percentage majority of any Conservative-held seat, behind only Richmond and Northallerton, the seat of Conservative leader and then-Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.

Boundaries

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Map of boundaries 2010-2024

1945–1950: The Urban District of Harrow wards of Kenton, Stanmore North, Stanmore South, Wealdstone North, Wealdstone South, and part of Harrow Weald ward.

1950–1955: As above, but the whole of Harrow Weald, and without Wealdstone North or Wealdstone South.

1955–1974: The Municipal Borough of Harrow wards of Belmont, Harrow Weald, Queensbury, Stanmore North and Stanmore South.

1974–1978: The London Borough of Harrow wards of Belmont, Harrow Weald, Queensbury, Stanmore North and Stanmore South.

1978–1983: The London Borough of Harrow wards of Canons, Centenary, Harrow Weald, Kenton East, Stanmore Park, Stanmore South and Wemborough.

1983–2010: The London Borough of Harrow wards of Canons, Centenary, Greenhill, Harrow Weald, Kenton East, Kenton West, Marlborough, Stanmore Park, Stanmore South, Wealdstone and Wemborough.

2010–2024: The London Borough of Harrow wards of Belmont, Canons, Edgware, Harrow Weald, Kenton East, Kenton West, Queensbury, Stanmore Park and Wealdstone.

2024–present: The London Borough of Brent ward of Queensbury, and he London Borough of Harrow wards of Belmont, Canons, Centenary, Edgware, Harrow Weald, Kenton East, Kenton West, and Stanmore.[6]

The Borough of Brent ward of Queensbury was transferred from the abolished constituency of Brent North, thus uniting the parts of the suburb of Queensbury in Brent with those in Harrow. Other boundary changes included the transfer of Wealdstone to Harrow West.

Members of Parliament

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Election Member[7] Party
1945 Frederick Skinnard Labour
1950 Ian Harvey Conservative
1959 by-election Anthony Courtney Conservative
1966 Roy Roebuck Labour
1970 Hugh Dykes Conservative
1997 Tony McNulty Labour
2010 Bob Blackman Conservative

Election results

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Elections in the 2020s

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With 53.3% of the vote, Blackman received the highest vote share for any Conservative candidate that stood in the election, and was the only Conservative elected with an absolute majority.[8] He was one of three Conservative MPs to be re-elected with an increased majorities.[9]

General election 2024: Harrow East[10]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Bob Blackman 25,466 53.3 –1.3
Labour Primesh Patel 13,786 28.9 –8.5
Reform UK Roger Clark 2,188 4.6 4.4
Independent Sabira Lakha 2,097 4.4 N/A
Green Seb Newsam 2,006 4.2 3.9
Liberal Democrats Reetendra Nath Banerji 1,511 3.2 –4.3
Workers Party Sarajulhaq Parwani 723 1.5 N/A
Majority 11,680 24.4 7.9
Turnout 47,777 62.5 –6.1
Registered electors 76,386
Conservative hold Swing 3.6

Elections in the 2010s

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2019 notional result[11]
Party Vote %
Conservative 28,555 54.6
Labour 19,568 37.4
Liberal Democrats 3,930 7.5
Green 136 0.3
Brexit Party 98 0.2
Turnout 52,287 68.5
Electorate 76,299
General election 2019: Harrow East[12][13]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Bob Blackman 26,935 54.4 5.0
Labour Pamela Fitzpatrick 18,765 37.9 −8.1
Liberal Democrats Adam Bernard 3,791 7.7 4.6
Majority 8,170 16.5 13.1
Turnout 49,491 68.6 −2.3
Registered electors 72,120
Conservative hold Swing 6.5
General election 2017: Harrow East[14][15]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Bob Blackman 25,129 49.4 −0.9
Labour Navin Shah 23,372 46.0 5.4
Liberal Democrats Adam Bernard 1,573 3.1 1.0
Green Emma Wallace 771 1.5 −0.2
Majority 1,757 3.4 −6.3
Turnout 50,845 70.9 1.9
Registered electors 71,755
Conservative hold Swing -3.1
General election 2015: Harrow East[16][17]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Bob Blackman 24,668 50.3 5.6
Labour Uma Kumaran 19,911 40.6 3.0
UKIP Aidan Powlesland 2,333 4.8 2.9
Liberal Democrats Ross Barlow 1,037 2.1 −12.2
Green Emma Wallace 846 1.7 0.0
TUSC Nana Asante 205 0.4 New
Majority 4,757 9.7 2.6
Turnout 49,000 69.0 1.9
Registered electors 70,981
Conservative hold Swing 1.3
See also: Opinion polling in United Kingdom constituencies, 2010–15 § Harrow East
General election 2010: Harrow East[18]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Bob Blackman 21,435 44.7 6.1
Labour Tony McNulty 18,032 37.6 −7.9
Liberal Democrats Nahid Boethe 6,850 14.3 0.1
UKIP Abhijit Pandya 896 1.9 0.1
Green Madeleine Atkins 793 1.7 New
Majority 3,403 7.1 N/A
Turnout 48,006 67.1 5.8
Registered electors 70,510
Conservative gain from Labour Swing -7.0

Elections in the 2000s

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General election 2005: Harrow East[19]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Tony McNulty 23,445 46.1 −9.2
Conservative David Ashton 18,715 36.8 4.6
Liberal Democrats Pash Nandhra 7,747 15.2 2.7
UKIP Paul Cronin 916 1.8 New
Majority 4,730 9.3 −13.8
Turnout 50,823 60.5 2.1
Registered electors 83,904
Labour hold Swing −6.9
General election 2001: Harrow East[20]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Tony McNulty 26,590 55.3 2.8
Conservative Peter Wilding 15,466 32.2 −3.2
Liberal Democrats George Kershaw 6,021 12.5 4.3
Majority 11,124 23.1 6.0
Turnout 48,077 58.4 −12.8
Registered electors 82,269
Labour hold Swing 3.0

Elections in the 1990s

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General election 1997: Harrow East[21]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Tony McNulty 29,962 52.5 18.7
Conservative Hugh Dykes 20,189 35.4 −17.4
Liberal Democrats Baldev Sharma 4,697 8.2 −2.7
Referendum Bernard Casey 1,537 2.7 New
UKIP A.J. Scholefield 464 0.8 New
Natural Law Andrew Planton 171 0.3 −0.1
Majority 9,737 17.1 N/A
Turnout 57,020 71.3 −6.5
Registered electors 79,981
Labour gain from Conservative Swing -18.1
General election 1992: Harrow East[22]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Hugh Dykes 30,752 52.9 −1.3
Labour Tony McNulty 19,654 33.8 10.2
Liberal Democrats V.M. Chamberlain 6,360 10.9 −11.3
Liberal P. Burrows 1,142 2.0 New
Natural Law S. Hamza 212 0.4 New
Anti-Federalist League J. Lester 49 0.1 New
Majority 11,098 19.1 −11.6
Turnout 58,169 77.8 4.4
Registered electors 74,733
Conservative hold Swing -6.2

Elections in the 1980s

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General election 1987: Harrow East[23]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Hugh Dykes 32,302 54.2 4.4
Labour David John Brough 14,029 23.6 1.3
Liberal Zerbanoo Gifford 13,251 22.2 −5.7
Majority 18,273 30.6 8.7
Turnout 59,582 73.5 1.0
Registered electors 81,124
Conservative hold Swing
General election 1983: Harrow East[24]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Hugh Dykes 28,834 49.8 −4.5
Liberal Richard Hains 16,166 27.9 17.5
Labour David Brough 12,941 22.3 −11.5
Majority 12,668 21.9 1.4
Turnout 57,941 72.5 −5.4
Registered electors 79,926
Conservative hold Swing

Elections in the 1970s

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General election 1979: Harrow East
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Hugh Dykes 20,871 54.32 8.10
Labour David Miles[25] 12,993 33.82 −2.99
Liberal Martin Savitt[25] 3,984 10.37 −6.60
National Front Leslie Le Croissette[25] 572 1.49 New
Majority 7,878 20.50 11.09
Turnout 36,936 77.85 2.95
Registered electors 49,354
Conservative hold Swing
General election October 1974: Harrow East
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Hugh Dykes 17,073 46.22 1.57
Labour R.W. Lewis 13,595 36.81 3.32
Liberal J. McDonnell 6,268 16.97 −4.90
Majority 3,478 9.41 −1.75
Turnout 36,936 74.90 −7.48
Registered electors 49,315
Conservative hold Swing
General election February 1974: Harrow East
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Hugh Dykes 17,978 44.65 −6.35
Labour K.W. Childerhouse 13,485 33.49 −7.00
Liberal J. McDonnell 8,805 21.87 13.55
Majority 4,493 11.16 0.65
Turnout 40,268 82.38 6.44
Registered electors 48,878
Conservative hold Swing
General election 1970: Harrow East [26]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Hugh Dykes 19,517 51.00 7.55
Labour Roy Roebuck 15,496 40.49 −3.92
Liberal Michael Colne 3,185 8.32 −3.82
Independent Geoffrey Cramp 72 0.19 New
Majority 4,021 10.51 N/A
Turnout 38,270 75.94 −6.82
Registered electors 50,395
Conservative gain from Labour Swing

Elections in the 1960s

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General election 1966: Harrow East [27]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Roy Roebuck 17,374 44.41 −2.65
Conservative Anthony Courtney 16,996 43.45 −9.49
Liberal Michael Colne 4,749 12.14 New
Majority 378 0.96 N/A
Turnout 39,119 82.76 2.78
Registered electors 47,267
Labour gain from Conservative Swing
General election 1964: Harrow East [28]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Anthony Courtney 20,307 52.94 −4.28
Labour Jo Richardson 18,048 47.06 4.28
Majority 2,259 5.88 −8.56
Turnout 38,355 79.98 −4.56
Registered electors 47,954
Conservative hold Swing

Elections in the 1950s

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General election 1959: Harrow East [29]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Anthony Courtney 23,554 57.22 2.79
Labour Merlyn Rees 17,607 42.78 −2.79
Majority 5,947 14.44 5.58
Turnout 41,161 84.54 1.92
Registered electors 49,273
Conservative hold Swing
1959 Harrow East by-election[30][31]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Anthony T. Courtney 17,776 52.8 −1.63
Labour Merlyn Rees 15,546 46.2 0.63
National Union of Small Shopkeepers Thomas Lynch 348 1.0 New
Majority 2,220 6.6 −2.2
Turnout 28,795 68.96 −13.64
Registered electors 48,820
Conservative hold Swing -1.1
General election 1955: Harrow East [32]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Ian Harvey 22,243 54.43 4.58
Labour Merlyn Rees 18,621 45.57 1.59
Majority 3,622 8.86 2.99
Turnout 40,864 82.62 −5.24
Registered electors 49,460
Conservative hold Swing
General election 1951: Harrow East [33]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Ian Harvey 26,896 49.85 5.1
Labour Robert D Rees 23,725 43.98 2.9
Liberal Geoffrey JE Rhodes 3,329 6.17 −5.91
Majority 3,171 5.87 3.10
Turnout 53,950 87.86 0.63
Registered electors 61,408
Conservative hold Swing
General election 1950: Harrow East [34]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Ian Harvey 23,680 44.75 9.70
Labour Frederick Skinnard 22,216 41.98 −4.46
Liberal Desmond Banks 6,393 12.08 −0.55
Communist Bill Seaman[35] 633 1.20 −4.67
Majority 1,464 2.77 N/A
Turnout 52,922 87.23 9.89
Registered electors 60,668
Conservative gain from Labour Swing

Elections in the 1940s

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General election 1945: Harrow East
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Frederick Skinnard 27,613 46.44
Conservative Fredman Ashe Lincoln 20,843 35.05
Liberal Anthony Gibbs 7,513 12.63
Communist G Driver 3,493 5.87
Majority 6,770 11.39
Turnout 59,462 77.34
Registered electors 76,883
Labour win (new seat)

See also

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Notes

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  1. ^ A borough constituency (for the purposes of election expenses and type of returning officer)
  2. ^ As with all constituencies, Harrow East elects one Member of Parliament (MP) by the first past the post system of election at least every five years.

References

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  1. ^ "The 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituency Boundaries in England – Volume two: Constituency names, designations and composition – London". Boundary Commission for England. Retrieved 19 June 2024.
  2. ^ Parish: Key Statistics: Population. Archived 11 February 2003 at the Wayback Machine (2011 census). Retrieved 2016-05-04.
  3. ^ "2011 census interactive maps". Archived from the original on 29 January 2016. by comparison, the London Borough of Haringey has 17.8% and Three Rivers District has 17.4%.
  4. ^ Katwala, Sunder; Ballinger, Steve (September 2017). "Mind the gap: How the ethnic minority vote cost Theresa May her majority" (PDF). British Future.
  5. ^ Conservative Defence 2022 – Election Polling Election Polling. Retrieved 2018-02-08
  6. ^ "The Parliamentary Constituencies Order 2023". Schedule 1 Part 3 London region.
  7. ^ Leigh Rayment's Historical List of MPs – Constituencies beginning with "H" (part 1)
  8. ^ https://x.com/bobblackman/status/1810683566323622369?s=46&t=Plop77OWWRPqprDhBsIahQ [bare URL]
  9. ^ https://x.com/bobblackman/status/1810683562363965625?s=46&t=Plop77OWWRPqprDhBsIahQ [bare URL]
  10. ^ "Statement of Person Nominated and Notice of Poll: Harrow East Constituency" (PDF). Harrow Council. 7 June 2024.
  11. ^ "Notional results for a UK general election on 12 December 2019". Rallings & Thrasher, Professor David Denver (Scotland), Nicholas Whyte (NI) for Sky News, PA, BBC News and ITV News. UK Parliament. Retrieved 11 July 2024.
  12. ^ "Statement of Persons Nominated and Notice of Poll for Harrow East Constituency". Harrow London Borough Council. 14 November 2019. Retrieved 24 November 2019.
  13. ^ "Commons Briefing Paper 8749. General Election 2019: results and analysis" (PDF). London: House of Commons Library. 28 January 2020. Archived (PDF) from the original on 18 November 2021. Retrieved 19 January 2022.
  14. ^ "Harrow East parliamentary constituency". BBC News.
  15. ^ "Commons Briefing Paper 7979. General Election 2017: results and analysis" (PDF) (Second ed.). House of Commons Library. 29 January 2019 [7 April 2018]. Archived (PDF) from the original on 12 November 2019.
  16. ^ "Election Data 2015". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 17 October 2015. Retrieved 17 October 2015.
  17. ^ [email protected] (1 January 2004). "Election results for Harrow East, 7 May 2015".
  18. ^ "Election Data 2010". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 26 July 2013. Retrieved 17 October 2015.
  19. ^ "Election Data 2005". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
  20. ^ "Election Data 2001". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
  21. ^ "Election Data 1997". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
  22. ^ "Election Data 1992". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
  23. ^ "Election Data 1987". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
  24. ^ "Election Data 1983". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
  25. ^ a b c Election Expenses. Parliament of the United Kingdom. 1980. p. 14. ISBN 0102374805.
  26. ^ The Times' Guide to the House of Commons. 1970.
  27. ^ The Times' Guide to the House of Commons. 1966.
  28. ^ The Times' Guide to the House of Commons. 1964.
  29. ^ The Times' Guide to the House of Commons. 1959.
  30. ^ "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 26 December 2014. Retrieved 26 December 2014.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  31. ^ "1959 By Election Results". Archived from the original on 10 October 2012. Retrieved 15 August 2015.
  32. ^ The Times' Guide to the House of Commons. 1955.
  33. ^ The Times' Guide to the House of Commons. 1951.
  34. ^ The Times' Guide to the House of Commons. 1950.
  35. ^ Stevenson, Graham. "Seaman Bill". Retrieved 22 April 2017.
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51°36′22″N 0°18′47″W / 51.606°N 0.313°W / 51.606; -0.313

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