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2010 Colorado gubernatorial election

(Redirected from Colorado gubernatorial election, 2010)

For related races, see 2010 United States gubernatorial elections.

The 2010 Colorado gubernatorial election was held on Tuesday, November 2, 2010, to elect the Governor of Colorado, who would serve a four-year term that began in January 2011. One-term incumbent Democrat Bill Ritter announced that he would not run for re-election in 2010.[1] Dan Maes, backed by the Tea Party movement, won the Republican nomination in the primary with 50.6% of the vote and a 1.3% margin over rival Scott McInnis. In claiming victory, Maes called on former representative Tom Tancredo, running as the Constitution Party's nominee to "stop your campaign tonight." Denver mayor John Hickenlooper was unopposed for the Democratic nomination. Hickenlooper won the race with over 50% of the vote.[2]

2010 Colorado gubernatorial election
← 2006 November 2, 2010 2014 →
 
Nominee John Hickenlooper Tom Tancredo Dan Maes
Party Democratic Constitution Republican
Running mate Joe Garcia Pat Miller Tambor Williams
Popular vote 915,436 652,376 199,792
Percentage 51.05% 36.38% 11.14%
Hickenlooper:      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tancredo:      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Maes:      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%
Tie:      30–40%      40–50%      No Data
Governor before election

Bill Ritter
Democratic

Elected Governor

John Hickenlooper
Democratic

Democratic primary

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Candidates

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Declared

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Declined

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Results

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Democratic primary results[8]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic John Hickenlooper 303,245 100.00
Total votes 303,245 100.00

Republican primary

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Candidates

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Declared

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Declined

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Pre-primary polling and developments

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While a head-to-head polling matchup of McInnis against Maes by Survey USA was not reported for July 2010, the McInnis plagiarism story and the entry of Tom Tancredo into the race led to a changed landscape in advance of the August 10 Republican primary. "When asked who would be the 'strongest Republican gubernatorial candidate,' ... Tancredo easily led the pack of six choices with 29 percent. McInnis followed with 19 percent, and ... Maes, had 13 percent. Another 17 percent ... were not sure", in the Survey USA poll commissioned by the Denver Post and 9News. While Tancredo's run was on the Constitution Party ticket, he spoke as a Republican in responding to the poll results. "Tancredo, originally a McInnis supporter, has said that both Maes and McInnis should 'both eventually drop out' of the race even if it's after one wins the primary. 'Neither can win the general election,' he said. Tancredo said he was 'surprised and flattered' by the poll results. 'I want us as a party to get this governor's seat,' he said. 'If I can do it, believe me, I will.'"[14] Tancredo was delivered a "message, signed by tea party, 9-12 Project and constitutionalist groups, [which] read in part: 'Withdraw your ultimatum, stay in the Republican Party, let the process play out for the governor's race within the rules already set forth, and continue to help us improve this party, its candidates, and the process — in other words to trust and respect the newly awakened, energized and informed voters of Colorado.'"[15] As of late July, both McInnis and Maes had rejected Tancredo's ultimatum that they withdraw before or after the primary. And "political observers — and even state GOP chairman Dick Wadhams — were already predicting [Tancredo]'s entry into the race sounded the death knell for the party's gubernatorial bid and may cause problems for state legislative races. 'It's difficult if not impossible to beat ... Hickenlooper with Tancredo in the race,' said Wadhams, noting that Tancredo will siphon just enough votes away from the GOP nominee to give Hickenlooper a win."[16] Post-primary polling (see below), however, showed growing support for Tancredo with Maes in danger of receiving a vote share in the single digits.

McInnis vs. Maes

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Poll source Dates administered Dan
Maes 		Scott
McInnis
Public Policy Polling[17] August 7–8, 2010 40% 41%
Survey USA[18] August 1, 2010 43% 39%
Survey USA[19] June 15–17, 2010 29% 57%

Results

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Results by county:
  Maes
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  McInnis
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
Republican primary results[8]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Dan Maes 197,629 50.66
Republican Scott McInnis 192,479 49.34
Total votes 390,108 100.00

Libertarian Party

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Candidates

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Results

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Libertarian primary results[8]
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Jaimes Brown 1,438 64.03
Libertarian Dan Sallis 808 35.98
Total votes 2,246 100.00

American Constitution Party

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Confirmed

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General election

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Tom Tancredo supporters

Candidates

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  • Tom Tancredo (ACP), former Republican U.S. Representative
  • Jaimes Brown (L)
  • Running mate: Ken Wyble
  • Jason R. Clark (UAF)
  • Paul Fiorino (I)
  • Running mate: Heather McKibbin
  • John Hickenlooper (D), Mayor of Denver
  • Dan Maes (R), businessman

Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[23] Likely D October 14, 2010
Rothenberg[24] Lean D October 28, 2010
RealClearPolitics[25] Tossup November 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball[26] Likely D October 28, 2010
CQ Politics[27] Tossup October 28, 2010

Debates

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Polling

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Graphical summary

Poll source Dates administered John
Hickenlooper (D) 		Dan
Maes (R) 		Tom
Tancredo (ACP)
Public Policy Polling[28] October 30–31, 2010 47% 8% 43%
Rasmussen Reports[29] October 29, 2010 49% 5% 42%
Public Policy Polling[30] October 21–23, 2010 47% 5% 44%
Magellan Strategies[31] October 22, 2010 44% 9% 43%
Rasmussen Reports[29] October 15, 2010 42% 12% 38%
Rasmussen Reports[29] October 3, 2010 43% 16% 35%
Public Policy Polling[32] September 30 – October 2, 2010 47% 13% 33%
Survey USA[33] September 28–30, 2010 46% 15% 34%
Fox News[34] September 25, 2010 44% 15% 34%
CNN/Time[35] September 17–21, 2010 47% 21% 29%
Rasmussen Reports[29] September 14, 2010 46% 21% 25%
Rasmussen Reports[36] August 29, 2010 36% 24% 14%
Ipsos/Reuters[37] August 20–22, 2010 41% 33% 16%
45% 45% ––
Rasmussen Reports[38] August 11, 2010 43% 31% 18%
Public Policy Polling[39] August 7–8, 2010 48% 23% 22%
50% 38% ––
Rasmussen Reports[40] August 2, 2010 42% 27% 24%
Survey USA[41] July 27–29, 2010 46% 24% 24%
50% 41% ––
Rasmussen Reports[42] July 15, 2010 46% 43% ––
Survey USA[19] June 15–17, 2010 44% 45% ––
Rasmussen Reports[43] June 14, 2010 41% 41% ––

Results

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2010 Colorado gubernatorial election[44]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic John Hickenlooper 915,436 51.05% −5.93%
Constitution Tom Tancredo 652,376 36.38% 35.76%
Republican Dan Maes 199,792 11.14% −29.02%
Libertarian Jaimes Brown 13,365 0.75% −0.75%
Independent Jason R. Clark 8,601 0.48% —
Independent Paul Noel Fiorino 3,492 0.19% —
Write-ins 86 0.00% —
Majority 263,060 14.67% −2.15%
Turnout 1,793,148
Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Constitution

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Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

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Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

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Counties that flipped from Democratic to Constitution

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Aftermath

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American Constitution Party gets major party status

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A result of Tancredo's ACP candidacy and Maes' political implosion was the party's legal elevation from minor to major party status.

Under state law, Tancredo's showing in the gubernatorial election elevated the American Constitution Party from minor to major party status. Any party that earns 10% or more of the votes cast for governor is a "major party." Major party status gives the party a place at or near the top of the ballot in the 2014 gubernatorial election. However, because of the additional organizational, financial, and compliance requirements triggered by major party status, ACP leaders have been ambivalent about the change.[45][46]

As the campaign wore on, the question was not whether Hickenlooper would win, but whether Maes would get at least 10% of the vote. Had he dropped below 10%, the Republican Party would have been legally defined as a minor party under Colorado law. Maes' campaign received no financial support from the Colorado GOP, RNC, nor the Republican Governor's Association. Ultimately, he finished with 11 percent of the vote, just 20,477 votes over the threshold, allowing the Colorado GOP to retain major party status.[47]

The Constitution Party did not field a candidate in the 2014 election, and thus lost its major party status.

See also

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References

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  1. ^ Fender, Jessica (January 6, 2010). "Ritter ends re-election bid". The Denver Post. Retrieved February 28, 2019.
  2. ^ Moore, John (November 3, 2010). "Hickenlooper wins easily". Denver Post.
  3. ^ Bartels, Lynn (January 12, 2010). "Hickenlooper enters governor's race". The Denver Post. Retrieved July 26, 2010.
  4. ^ Kraushaar, Josh (January 12, 2010). "Hickenlooper in – The Scorecard". Politico.Com. Retrieved July 26, 2010.
  5. ^ Wilson, Reid (December 8, 2008). "Salazar, Ritter get set for reelection bids". The Hill. Retrieved January 3, 2009.[dead link‍]
  6. ^ Weisman, Jonathan (January 6, 2010). "Salazar Won't Run". Politico 44 (blog). Retrieved January 6, 2010.
  7. ^ Bartels, Lynn (September 16, 2009). "Romanoff enters Dem race for U.S. Senate". The Denver Post. Retrieved July 26, 2010.
  8. ^ a b c "2010 Abstract of Votes Cast" (PDF). Colorado Secretary of State. Retrieved January 6, 2018.
  9. ^ "The 2010 Results Maps". Politico.Com. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
  10. ^ Fender, Jessica (May 21, 2009). "McInnis begins 2010 challenge to Gov. Ritter". The Denver Post. Retrieved March 8, 2010.
  11. ^ Crummy, Karen E. (January 26, 2009). "Suthers won't enter Senate, Gov. races". The Denver Post. Retrieved July 26, 2010.
  12. ^ "First Read – CO-GOV: Penry steps aside fearing 527". MSNBC. Archived from the original on November 12, 2009. Retrieved July 26, 2010.
  13. ^ "Tancredo, Owens Throw Support Behind McInnis". CBS4 Denver. November 23, 2009. Archived from the original on November 25, 2009. Retrieved January 6, 2010.
  14. ^ "Poll shows slipping support for GOP gubernatorial candidate Scott McInnis", by Karen E. Crummy, The Denver Post, updated 2010-07-17 1:37:13 AM MDT. Retrieved October 18, 2010.
  15. ^ "Tancredo pulls third-party trigger", by David Caterese, politico.com, 7/26/10 12:01 PM EDT. Retrieved 2010-07-27.
  16. ^ "Tancredo entering governor's race as third-party candidate, splintering GOP", by Karen E. Crummy, The Denver Post, updated 27 July 2010 05:57:27 AM MDT. Retrieved 2010-07-27.
  17. ^ Public Policy Polling
  18. ^ Survey USA Archived 2012-06-14 at the Wayback Machine
  19. ^ a b Survey USA
  20. ^ "Candidates – Libertarian Party of Colorado". Lpcolorado.org. Archived from the original on July 25, 2010. Retrieved July 26, 2010.
  21. ^ "TRACER – Candidate Detail". Tracer.sos.colorado.gov. Retrieved July 26, 2010.
  22. ^ Crummy, Karen E. (July 22, 2010). "Tancredo considering third-party or unaffiliated governor's run". The Denver Post. Retrieved July 22, 2010.
  23. ^ "2010 Governors Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  24. ^ "Governor Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  25. ^ "2010 Governor Races". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  26. ^ "THE CRYSTAL BALL'S FINAL CALLS". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  27. ^ "Race Ratings Chart: Governor". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 5, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  28. ^ Public Policy Polling
  29. ^ a b c d Rasmussen Reports
  30. ^ Public Policy Polling
  31. ^ Magellan Strategies
  32. ^ Public Policy Polling
  33. ^ Survey USA
  34. ^ Fox News
  35. ^ CNN/Time
  36. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  37. ^ Ipsos/Reuters
  38. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  39. ^ Public Policy Polling
  40. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  41. ^ Survey USA [permanent dead link‍]
  42. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  43. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  44. ^ Gessler, Scott (2010). 2010 Abstract of Votes Cast (PDF). Denver, Colorado: Colorado Secretary of State.
  45. ^ Steven K. Paulson, "ACP Not Relishing Role As Colorado Major Party", Associated Press; May 8, 2011.
  46. ^ Patricia Calhoun, "American Constitution Party faces major headaches as a major Colorado party", Westword Magazine; 3/6/2012.
  47. ^ John Moore, "Hickenlooper wins easily," Denver Post, 3 November 2010, accessed 3 November 2010.
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Debate

Official campaign websites (Archived)

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