Wikipedia

2024 United States Senate election in Washington

Not to be confused with 2024 Washington State Senate election.

The 2024 United States Senate election in Washington was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Washington. Democratic incumbent Senator Maria Cantwell was elected to her fifth term, winning over Republican physician Raul Garcia.

2024 United States Senate election in Washington
← 2018 November 5, 2024 2030 →
 
Nominee Maria Cantwell Raul Garcia
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 2,252,577 1,549,187
Percentage 59.09% 40.64%
Cantwell:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Garcia:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
U.S. senator before election

Maria Cantwell
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Maria Cantwell
Democratic

Primary election

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Democratic candidates

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Advanced to general

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Eliminated in primary

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  • Paul Giesick, blue collar worker[2]

Republican candidates

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Advanced to general

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  • Raul Garcia, physician and candidate for governor in 2020[3]

Eliminated in primary

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  • Goodspaceguy, amateur astronomer and perennial candidate[2]
  • Isaac Holyk, software development company CEO and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022[2]
  • Scott Nazarino, financial consultant and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016[2]
  • Mel Ram, private investigator[2]

Declined

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Third party and independent candidates

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Eliminated in primary

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  • Thor Amundson (Independent), project expediter and perennial candidate[2]
  • Henry Dennison (Socialist Workers), political organizer and perennial candidate[2]
  • Chuck Jackson (Independent), merchant mariner and perennial candidate[2]
  • David Tilton (Independent), data analyst[2]

Endorsements

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Maria Cantwell (D)

Organizations

Labor unions

Newspapers

Tribes

Raul Garcia (R)

U.S. representatives

Statewide officials

State legislators

Local officials

Organizations

Political parties

Fundraising

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Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Maria Cantwell (D) $11,651,974 $5,128,836 $7,093,030
Raul Garcia (R) $558,646 $394,077 $164,568
Isaac Holyk (R) $6,846 $7,278 $0
Source: Federal Election Commission[27]

Results

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Results by county:
  Cantwell—70–80%
  Cantwell—50–60%
  Cantwell—40–50%
  Cantwell—30–40%
  Garcia—30–40%
  Garcia—40–50%

Cantwell won 28 counties out of 39, including 9 out of the state's 10 most populous ones. She performed especially well in the most populous King County, as well as San Juan and Jefferson counties.[28]

Blanket primary results[29]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Maria Cantwell (incumbent) 1,114,327 57.18%
Republican Raul Garcia 431,182 22.13%
Republican Scott Nazarino 111,386 5.72%
Republican Isaac Holyk 110,701 5.68%
Republican Mel Ram 86,956 4.46%
Independent Chuck Jackson 21,055 1.08%
Independent David Tilton 17,561 0.90%
Democratic Paul Giesick 17,433 0.89%
Republican Goodspaceguy 16,826 0.86%
Independent Thor Amundson 10,587 0.54%
Socialist Workers Henry Dennison 7,840 0.40%
Write-in 2,862 0.15%
Total votes 1,948,716 100.0%

General election

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Debate

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2024 United States Senate election in Washington debate
No. Date Host Moderator Link Democratic Republican
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Not invited   I  Invited  W  Withdrawn
Maria Cantwell Raul Garcia
1 Oct. 8, 2024 Gonzaga University
KSPS-TV
The Black Lens
The Spokesman-Review
Washington State Debate Coalition 		Orion Donovan Smith TVW[30] P P

Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[31] Solid D November 9, 2023
Inside Elections[32] Solid D November 9, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[33] Safe D November 9, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[34] Safe D June 8, 2024
Elections Daily[35] Safe D May 4, 2023
CNalysis[36] Solid D November 21, 2023
RealClearPolitics[37] Solid D August 5, 2024
Split Ticket[38] Safe D October 23, 2024
538[39] Solid D October 23, 2024

Polling

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Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Maria
Cantwell (D) 		Raul
Garcia (R) 		Undecided
[a] 		Margin
270ToWin[40] October 20 - November 4, 2024 November 4, 2024 55.5% 38.0% 6.5% Cantwell 17.5%
TheHill/DDHQ[41] through November 3, 2024 November 4, 2024 57.8% 38.9% 3.3% Cantwell 18.9%
Average 56.7% 38.5% 4.8% Cantwell 18.2%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Maria
Cantwell (D) 		Raul
Garcia (R) 		Other Undecided
Research Co.[42] November 2–3, 2024 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 58% 38% – 4%
Public Policy Polling (D)[43][A] October 16–17, 2024 571 (LV) ± 4.1% 53% 38% – 9%
SurveyUSA[44][B] October 9–14, 2024 703 (LV) ± 4.9% 55% 32% – 13%
Cascade PBS/Elway Research[45] September 3–6, 2024 403 (RV) ± 5.0% 55% 33% 4%[c] 7%
Public Policy Polling (D)[46][A] July 24–25, 2024 581 (LV) ± 4.0% 55% 32% 6%[d] 7%
SurveyUSA[47][B] July 10–13, 2024 564 (LV) ± 5.1% 58% 37% – 5%
Public Policy Polling (D)[48][A] May 15–16, 2024 615 (LV) ± 4.0% 53% 38% – 9%
Cascade PBS/Elway Research[49] May 13–16, 2024 403 (RV) ± 5.0% 39% 30% 1%[e] 30%
Echelon Insights (R)[50][C] March 18–21, 2024 600 (RV) ± 4.7% 44% 36% – 19%
Public Policy Polling (D)[51][A] February 13–14, 2024 789 (LV) ± 3.5% 53% 37% – 10%
Public Policy Polling (D)[52][A] November 14–15, 2023 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 51% 38% – 11%
Elway Research[53][D] October 30 – November 3, 2023 403 (RV) ± 5.0% 43% 23% 9%[f] 25%
Hypothetical polling

Maria Cantwell vs. Jaime Herrera Beutler

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Maria
Cantwell (D) 		Jaime
Herrera Beutler (R) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[54][A] June 7–8, 2023 773 (LV) ± 3.5% 52% 37% 11%
Public Policy Polling (D)[55][A] March 7–8, 2023 874 (LV) ± 3.3% 50% 35% 14%

Results

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2024 United States Senate election in Washington[56]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Maria Cantwell (incumbent) 2,252,577 59.09% 0.66%
Republican Raul Garcia 1,549,187 40.64% −0.93%
Write-in 10,627 0.28% N/A
Total votes 3,812,391 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

By county

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By county
County[57] Maria Cantwell

Democratic

Raul Garcia

Republican

Write-In Total
% # % # % #
Adams 31.44% 1,627 67.71% 3,504 0.85% 44 5,175
Asotin 39.70% 4,386 59.98% 6,627 0.33% 36 11,049
Benton 40.52% 39,595 59.16% 57,804 0.32% 313 97,712
Chelan 45.89% 18,884 53.87% 22,168 0.23% 96 41,148
Clallam 53.96% 25,487 45.86% 21,663 0.18% 83 47,233
Clark 53.57% 142,669 46.08% 122,712 0.34% 918 266,299
Columbia 30.81% 745 68.57% 1,658 0.62% 15 2,418
Cowlitz 42.42% 24,329 57.28% 32,854 0.30% 171 57,354
Douglas 38.32% 7,892 61.37% 12,637 0.31% 64 20,593
Ferry 35.80% 1,431 64.00% 2,558 0.20% 8 3,997
Franklin 40.71% 12,538 59.13% 18,212 0.16% 50 30,800
Garfield 30.82% 413 69.10% 926 0.07% 1 1,340
Grant 33.20% 11,664 66.59% 23,390 0.21% 74 35,128
Grays Harbor 48.90% 18,061 50.82% 18,772 0.28% 105 36,938
Island 57.28% 29,216 42.50% 21,677 0.22% 114 51,007
Jefferson 72.28% 17,621 27,52% 6,708 0.20% 49 24,378
King 75.06% 828,204 24.64% 271,832 0.31% 3,370 1,103,406
Kitsap 59.55% 91,348 40.24% 61,734 0.21% 327 153,409
Kittitas 42.98% 11,028 56.73% 14,556 0.28% 73 25,657
Klickitat 45.42% 5,962 54.28% 7,125 0.30% 40 13,127
Lewis 36.10% 15,912 63.60% 28,030 0.30% 132 44,074
Lincoln 26.96% 1,889 72.77% 5,099 0.27% 19 7,007
Mason 49.39% 17,593 50.15% 17,865 0.45% 162 35,620
Okanogan 44.81% 9,022 54.93% 11,060 0.25% 51 20,133
Pacific 52.46% 7,273 47.26% 6,552 0.27% 38 13,863
Pend Oreille 32.67% 2,721 67.05% 5,585 0.28% 23 8,329
Pierce 54.96% 235,829 44.83% 192,366 0.21% 899 429,094
San Juan 74.38% 9,466 25.26% 3,214 0.36% 46 12,726
Skagit 53.82% 34,472 45.96% 29,438 0.22% 143 64,053
Skamania 45.28% 3,206 54.44% 3,855 0.28% 20 7,081
Snohomish 58.85% 239,059 40.90% 166,117 0.25% 1,020 406,196
Spokane 47.86% 132,644 51.84% 143,680 0.30% 842 277,166
Stevens 29.59% 8,138 70.06% 19,270 0.35% 96 27,504
Thurston 59.92% 96,086 39.79% 63,796 0.29% 462 160,344
Wahkiakum 44.18% 1,305 55.55% 1,641 0.27% 8 2,954
Walla Walla 47.06% 13,621 52.83% 15,293 0.11% 32 28,946
Whatcom 61.53% 83,355 38.26% 51,836 0.21% 290 135,481
Whitman 54.62% 10,698 45.21% 8,856 0.17% 34 19,588
Yakima 44.24% 37,188 55.34% 46,517 0.43% 359 84,064
Total 59.09% 2,252,577 40.64% 1,549,187 0.28% 10,627 3,812,391

By congressional district

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Cantwell won seven of 10 congressional districts, with the remaining three going to Garcia, including one that elected a Democrat.[58]

District Cantwell Garcia Representative
1st 63% 37% Suzan DelBene
2nd 61% 39% Rick Larsen
3rd 49% 50% Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
4th 41% 58% Dan Newhouse
5th 45% 54% Cathy McMorris Rodgers (118th Congress)
Michael Baumgartner (119th Congress)
6th 59% 41% Derek Kilmer (118th Congress)
Emily Randall (119th Congress)
7th 86% 13% Pramila Jayapal
8th 52% 48% Kim Schrier
9th 71% 28% Adam Smith
10th 59% 41% Marilyn Strickland

Notes

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  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^ a b Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ "No answer" with 3%; "I may not vote in this race" with 1%
  4. ^ "Another candidate" with 6%
  5. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  6. ^ "A different Republican" with 6%; "A different Democrat" with 3%

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b c d e f g Poll sponsored by the Northwest Progressive Institute
  2. ^ a b Poll sponsored by The Seattle Times, KING-TV, and University of Washington Information School
  3. ^ Poll sponsored by Concerned Taxpayers of Washington State PAC
  4. ^ Poll sponsored by Crosscut.com

References

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  1. ^ Everett, Burgess (April 13, 2023). "Will Women US Senators Run the Table in 2024?". Smart Politics. Retrieved July 7, 2023. eight of the 14 women in the chamber up for election have already announced they are seeking another term: Republican Deb Fischer of Nebraska and Democrats Mazie Hirono of Hawaii, Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, Jacky Rosen of Nevada (pictured), Kirsten Gillibrand of New York, Maria Cantwell of Washington, and Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h i "PRIMARY 2024 Candidate List". voter.votewa.gov. Retrieved May 9, 2024.
  3. ^ Sowersby, Shauna (July 7, 2023). "Raul Garcia drops out of governor's race, will run for US Senate in 2024". KING-TV. Retrieved July 7, 2023.
  4. ^ Dinman, Emry (February 16, 2024). "Brian Dansel and John Guenther enter race for Congress; Michael Baumgartner, Nadine Woodward considering". The Spokesman-Review. Retrieved February 16, 2024. [Guenther] initially planned to run for Senate again, this time against Cantwell, but decided to run for U.S. House
  5. ^ "Support Pro-Israel Candidates". AIPAC PAC. Retrieved April 7, 2023.
  6. ^ Wang, Danni (April 27, 2023). "Emilys List Endorses Maria Cantwell for Reelection to the United States Senate". Emilys List. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
  7. ^ "2024 – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org. Retrieved February 9, 2024.
  8. ^ "2024 Endorsements". 2024 Endorsements. Retrieved March 25, 2024.
  9. ^ "Jewish Dems: President Biden Stands with Israel". Jewish Democratic Council of America. Retrieved May 10, 2024.
  10. ^ "Meet JAC's 2024 Candidates | Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs". jacpac.org. Archived from the original on September 1, 2023. Retrieved September 1, 2023.
  11. ^ "Maria Cantwell". JStreetPAC. Retrieved August 26, 2023.
  12. ^ "LCV Action Fund Announces First Round of Congressional Endorsements". League of Conservation Voters. Retrieved July 27, 2023.
  13. ^ Dison, Denis (September 20, 2023). "NRDC Action Fund Endorses 51 House, Senate Incumbents". NRDC Action Fund. Retrieved September 20, 2023.
  14. ^ "Endorsed Candidates". National Women's Political Caucus. Retrieved March 18, 2024.
  15. ^ "2024 Planned Parenthood Action Fund Endorsed Candidates". Planned Parenthood Action Fund. Retrieved November 6, 2023.
  16. ^ "2024 Endorsements". Population Connection Action Fund. Retrieved August 25, 2023.
  17. ^ "Our Recommended Candidates". Education Votes. Retrieved May 26, 2024.
  18. ^ Villeneuve, Andrew (May 19, 2024). "Read the list of candidates endorsed by the Washington State Labor Council for the 2024 cycle". NPI's Cascadia Advocate. Retrieved May 26, 2024.
  19. ^ "Here's who The Seattle Times editorial board recommends for U.S. Senate | Editorial". The Seattle Times. July 19, 2024. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
  20. ^ Board, Stranger Election Control. "The Stranger's Endorsements for the August, 6, 2024 Primary Election". The Stranger. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
  21. ^ staff, Source ONE News (July 17, 2024). "Colville Tribes Endorse Maria Cantwell for U.S. Senate Re-election". Source ONE News. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
  22. ^ O'Sullivan, Joseph (July 7, 2023). "Raul Garcia drops WA governor bid after Dave Reichert announces run". Crosscut.com. Retrieved July 12, 2023.
  23. ^ a b c d e f Villeneuve, Andrew (November 17, 2023). "Senator Maria Cantwell leads Republican challenger Raul Garcia by thirteen points". The Cascadia Advocate. Retrieved November 29, 2023.
  24. ^ https://www.washingtonmainstream.org/endorsements-1
  25. ^ "Endorsements and discord: WA GOP wraps up Spokane convention". April 20, 2024. Retrieved April 23, 2024.
  26. ^ https://spokanegop.com/
  27. ^ "2024 Election United States Senate - Washington". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved August 11, 2023.
  28. ^ "2024 Washington Election Results". AP News. Retrieved August 22, 2024.
  29. ^ "Certification of Results" (PDF). Washington Secretary of State.
  30. ^ TVW
  31. ^ "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
  32. ^ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
  33. ^ "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
  34. ^ "2024 Senate prediction map". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. June 8, 2024. Retrieved June 8, 2024.
  35. ^ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 1, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
  36. ^ "'24 Senate Forecast". CNalysis. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
  37. ^ "Battle for the Senate 2024". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved August 5, 2024.
  38. ^ "2024 Senate Forecast". Split Ticket. Retrieved October 23, 2024.
  39. ^ "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved October 23, 2024.
  40. ^ 270ToWin
  41. ^ TheHill/DDHQ
  42. ^ Research Co.
  43. ^ Public Policy Polling (D)
  44. ^ SurveyUSA
  45. ^ Cascade PBS/Elway Research
  46. ^ Public Policy Polling (D)
  47. ^ SurveyUSA
  48. ^ Public Policy Polling (D)
  49. ^ Cascade PBS/Elway Research
  50. ^ Echelon Insights (R)
  51. ^ Public Policy Polling (D)
  52. ^ Public Policy Polling (D)
  53. ^ Elway Research
  54. ^ Public Policy Polling (D)
  55. ^ Public Policy Polling (D)
  56. ^ "Official Canvass of the Returns" (PDF). Secretary of State of Washington. Retrieved December 4, 2024.
  57. ^ https://results.vote.wa.gov/results/20241105/us-senator_bycounty.html
  58. ^ Results (PDF). sos.wa.gov (Report).
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Official campaign websites

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