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2024 Michigan Republican presidential nominating contests

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The 2024 Michigan Republican presidential primary and caucuses were held on February 27 and on March 2, 2024, respectively, as part of the Republican Party primaries for the 2024 presidential election. 55 delegates to the 2024 Republican National Convention were allocated on a proportional and winner-take-most basis.[1] The primary took place concurrently with its Democratic counterpart, and saw Trump defeat Haley in a 42-point landslide.[2]

2024 Michigan Republican presidential primary and caucus
2024 Michigan Republican presidential primary
← 2020 February 27, 2024 2028 →
← SC
ID →
16 Republican National Convention delegates
 
Candidate Donald Trump Nikki Haley
Home state Florida South Carolina
Delegate count 12 4
Popular vote 761,163 297,124
Percentage 68.12% 26.59%
2024 Michigan Republican presidential caucuses
← 2016 March 2, 2024 2028 →
← ID
MO →
39 Republican National Convention delegates
 
Candidate Donald Trump Nikki Haley
Home state Florida South Carolina
Delegate count 39 0
Popular vote 1,575 36
Percentage 97.77% 2.23%

Background

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In the 2016 Michigan Republican presidential primary, Donald Trump won with 36.5% of the vote, carrying 25 out of 59 delegates total. His closest opponents, Governor of Ohio John Kasich and Senator from Texas Ted Cruz, received 24.9% and 24.3% of the vote, respectively, with both candidates receiving 17 delegates.[3]

Michigan GOP 2024 schism

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See also: Michigan Republican Party

A court case was heard in Grand Rapids by Kent County Judge J. Joseph Rossi in late February determined who controls the state party. Judge Rossi dismissed a lawsuit by Karamo on February 20 to dismiss the case allowing for full hearings on the lawsuit filed by Karamo's critics later in the week regarding whether the RNC recognized chair Hoekstra or Karamo controls the MIGOP.[4] Judge Rossi on February 27 issued a preliminary injunction against Karamo, stating was properly removed as MIGOP chair and barring access by her to MIGOP bank accounts or post office boxes. Karamo declined to say whether she would appeal the ruling and had no comment as to whether the Detroit caucuses will take place.[5][6] A full trial regarding control of the MIGOP is scheduled to take place on June 10.[7] The Michigan Court of Appeals denied a request on February 29 by Karamo to issue a stay on the court order putting her Detroit caucus in doubt.[8] The chaos affected northern Michigan GOP participants from Michigan's 1st congressional district who had planned to go to Detroit but were barred by missing the deadline to take part in the Grand Rapids caucus. So a third gathering is planned the same day in Houghton Lake.[9] A contingent from Michigan's 4th congressional district was also denied credentials for the Grand Rapids caucuses, so a fourth gathering was announced for the same day in Battle Creek.[10] The Detroit gathering was cancelled.[11] Judge Rossi ruled that Karamo was properly removed as MIGOP chair.[12]

Procedure

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16 at-large delegates are allocated based on the results of the February 27 primary to candidates who receive at least 12.5% of the statewide vote.

39 district delegates are allocated based on the results of caucuses in each of the state's 13 congressional districts on March 2. Each of the state's thirteen congressional districts are awarded three delegates. The candidate who wins the majority of the vote in a caucus is awarded all that district's delegates; otherwise, the candidate with the highest vote total is awarded two delegates and the candidate with the second-highest vote total is awarded one delegate.

Schedule

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In February 2023, Governor Gretchen Whitmer signed legislation to move up the date of both the Democratic and Republican presidential primaries in Michigan to February 27, 2024, in line with the Democratic National Committee's (DNC) state reorganization plan.[13]

The date violated Republican Party Rule 16(c)(1), which prohibits any state/territory except Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina, from holding their primary/caucus until March 1, 2024, violating any other state/territory by stripping 80% of its delegates at the Republican National Convention.

In response, in June 2023, the Michigan Republican Party (MIGOP) passed a resolution of intent that would allocate 16 delegates based on the results of the February 27 primary and 39 delegates based on the results of caucuses in each of the state's 13 congressional districts on March 2.[14]

The convention held by the faction of the Michigan Republican Party recognized by the Republican National Committee led by Pete Hoekstra will be in Grand Rapids at the Amway Grand Plaza Hotel on March 2,[15] while the faction of the Michigan Republican Party led by Kristina Karamo will hold their convention in Detroit at Huntington Place on the same day.[16] While media is invited to the Karamo caucus, it will be closed to the public.[17] The RNC has indicated that only the delegates from the Hoekstra-led convention will be seated for the 2024 Republican National Convention.[18] A court ruling by Judge Joseph Rossi on February 27 indicated that Karamo was properly removed as MIGOP chair[19] and barred Karamo from conducting business on behalf of the "Michigan Republican State Committee or the Michigan Republican Party".[20] Rossi made his ruling retroactive to January 6.[21] A full trial regarding control of the MIGOP is scheduled to take place on June 10.[22] The Michigan Court of Appeals denied a request on February 29 by Karamo to issue a stay on the court order while her appeal is under consideration, putting her Detroit caucus in doubt.[23] The chaos affected delegates from Michigan's 1st congressional district who had planned to go to Detroit but were barred credentials to take part in the Grand Rapids convention; a third gathering is planned the same day in Houghton Lake.[24] A contingent from Michigan's 4th congressional district was also denied credentials for the Grand Rapids caucuses, so a fourth gathering was announced for the same day in Battle Creek.[25] The Detroit gathering was cancelled.[26]

Primary candidates

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The Michigan Secretary of State has identified the following candidates, listed alphabetically, as potential Republican Party presidential candidates in 2024:[27]

Endorsements

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Main article: Endorsements in the 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)

State senators

State representatives

Nikki Haley

State senator

State representatives

Newspapers

Perry Johnson (withdrawn)

Former federal official

Donald Trump

U.S. Representatives

State senator

State representatives

Former party official

Former local official

Individuals

Maps

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Endorsements by incumbent Republicans in the Michigan House of Representatives.
  Endorsed Donald Trump (40)
  Endorsed Nikki Haley (1)
  No endorsement (13)


Polling

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Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Nikki
Haley 		Donald
Trump 		Other/
Undecided[a] 		Margin
FiveThirtyEight[45] through February 24, 2024 February 27, 2024 21.8% 78.7% - Trump 56.9
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Doug
Burgum 		Chris
Christie 		Ron
DeSantis 		Nikki
Haley 		Will
Hurd 		Asa
Hutchinson 		Perry
Johnson 		Mike
Pence 		Vivek
Ramaswamy 		Tim
Scott 		Donald
Trump 		Other Undecided
Emerson College/The Hill[46] Feb 20–24, 2024 486 (LV) ±3% – – – 20.3% – – – – – – 69.2% – 10.5%
Michigan Information and Research Service (MIRS)[47] Jan 4–10, 2024 600 (LV) ±4% 3% 8% 9% 19% – – – – 2% – 53% – 6%
CNN/SSRS[48] Nov 30 – December 7, 2023 618 (LV) ± 3.4% 1% 6% 15% 13% – 1% – – 4% – 58% 1% 3%
Morning Consult[49] Nov 1–30, 2023 1,348 (LV) – 0% 3% 13% 10% – 0% – – 8% 1% 65% – –
Morning Consult[49] Oct 1–31, 2023 1,342 (LV) – 1% 3% 10% 6% 0% 0% – 7% 9% 1% 63% – –
Public Policy Polling (D)[50] Oct 9–10, 2023 430 (LV) ± 4.7% 2% 3% 13% 6% – 0% – 2% 3% 0% 63% – 8%
Morning Consult[49] Sep 1–30, 2023 1,238 (LV) – 0% 4% 12% 6% 0% 0% – 7% 10% 1% 58% – 2%
Susquehanna University[51] Sep 7–12, 2023 219 (LV) – 0% 0% 18% 3% – 0% – 5% 5% 0% 65% – –
Morning Consult[49] Aug 1–31, 2023 1,299 (LV) – 0% 4% 15% 3% 0% 1% – 8% 8% 2% 59% 0%[c] –
Emerson College[52] Aug 1–2, 2023 498 (RV) ± 4.3% 1% 2% 13% 3% 0% 1% 0% 7% 4% 2% 61% 1% 6%
Morning Consult[49] July 1–31, 2023 1,350 (LV) – – 3% 18% 3% 0% 1% – 10% 7% 2% 55% – 1%
Mitchell Research[53][A] Jul 11–13, 2023 639 (LV) ± 4.0% – – 13% 1% – – 0% 3% – 2% 69% – 11%
Morning Consult[49] June 1–30, 2023 1,242 (LV) – 1% 2% 25% 3% 0% 2% – 9% 3% 3% 52% 1%[d] –
Morning Consult[49] May 1–31, 2023 1,354 (LV) – – – 25% 2% – 1% – 9% 5% 1% 53% 5%[e] 1%
Morning Consult[49] Apr 1–30, 2023 1,356 (LV) – – – 26% 3% – 0% – 10% 2% 1% 53% 5%[f] –
Morning Consult[49] Mar 1–31, 2023 1,378 (LV) – – – 30% 3% – – – 10% 0% 1% 51% 5%[g] –
Morning Consult[49] Feb 1–28, 2023 1,232 (LV) – – – 32% 4% – – – 10% 0% 1% 46% 6%[h] 1%
Echelon Insights[54] Feb 13–16, 2023 400 (V) ± 6.0% – – 47% – – – – – – – 42% 11% –
Morning Consult[49] Jan 1–31, 2023 1,709 (LV) – – – 33% 1% – – – 10% – 0% 48% 5%[i] 3%
Morning Consult[49] Dec 1–31, 2022 909 (LV) – – – 32% 1% – – – 10% – 0% 50% 7%[j] –
Glengariff Group[55] Jul 13–15, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% – – 42% – – – – – – – 45% 13% –

Results

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Primary

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Michigan Republican primary, February 27, 2024[56][57]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 761,163 68.12% 12 0 12
Nikki Haley 297,124 26.59% 4 0 4
Uncommitted 33,649 3.01% 0 0 0
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) 13,456 1.20% 0 0 0
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 4,794 0.43% 0 0 0
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) 3,702 0.33% 0 0 0
Ryan Binkley 2,348 0.21% 0 0 0
Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn) 1,077 0.10% 0 0 0
Total: 1,117,313 100.00% 16 0 16

Caucus

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CBS called the results for Donald Trump at 6:02PM (EST) with Trump winning all 39 delegates available from the caucus.[58]

Michigan Republican caucus, March 2, 2024[59]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 1,575 97.77% 39 0 39
Nikki Haley 36 2.23% 0 0 0
Total: 1,611 100.00% 39 0 39
Source: [60]

See also

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Notes

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  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ Francis Suarez with 0%
  4. ^ Liz Cheney with 1%; Greg Abbott and Kristi Noem with 0%
  5. ^ Liz Cheney with 3%; Glenn Youngkin, Greg Abbott, and Kristi Noem with 0%
  6. ^ Liz Cheney with 3%; Mike Pompeo and Glenn Youngkin with 1%; Greg Abbott and Kristi Noem with 0%
  7. ^ Liz Cheney with 3%; Greg Abbott and Mike Pompeo with 1%; Kristi Noem and Glenn Youngkin with 0%
  8. ^ Liz Cheney with 3%; Greg Abbott, Kristi Noem, and Mike Pompeo with 1%; Ted Cruz and Glenn Youngkin with 0%
  9. ^ Liz Cheney with 3%; Mike Pompeo and Ted Cruz with 1%; Kristi Noem, Greg Abbott, and Glenn Youngkin with 0%
  10. ^ Ted Cruz with 3%; Liz Cheney with 2%; Mike Pompeo and Kristi Noem with 1%; Greg Abbott and Glenn Youngkin with 0%

Partisan clients

  1. ^ Poll commissioned by MIRS

References

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  1. ^ "Michigan Republican Presidential Nominating Process". The Green Papers. March 5, 2023. Retrieved February 6, 2023.
  2. ^ "Michigan Primary Election Results 2024". The New York Times. February 29, 2024. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved February 29, 2024.
  3. ^ "Michigan Primary Election Results 2016". The New York Times. September 29, 2016. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved March 3, 2023.
  4. ^ "In Michigan GOP court fight, Kristina Karamo loses first round | Bridge Michigan". February 23, 2024.
  5. ^ "Judge finds Kristina Karamo was removed as Michigan GOP chairwoman".
  6. ^ "Judge bars Kristina Karamo from calling herself Michigan Republican Party chair". Detroit Free Press. Retrieved March 6, 2024.
  7. ^ "Judge rules Kristina Karamo was properly ousted as Michigan GOP chair". mlive. February 27, 2024. Retrieved March 6, 2024.
  8. ^ "Appeals Court denies Karamo request to suspend order removing her as Michigan GOP chair". Detroit Free Press. Retrieved March 6, 2024.
  9. ^ "District 1 Republicans to hold separate GOP Convention after credentials were denied for Grand Rapids". March 1, 2024. Retrieved March 6, 2024.
  10. ^ LeBlanc, Beth (March 1, 2024). "Another competing Michigan GOP convention planned for Saturday". The Detroit News. Retrieved March 1, 2024.
  11. ^ "Trump wins big at Michigan GOP district caucuses held at Grand Rapids convention". Detroit Free Press. Retrieved March 6, 2024.
  12. ^ https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-government/2024-michigan-elections-kristina-karamo-loses-fight-state-gop-again
  13. ^ Robinson, Samuel (February 3, 2023). "Michigan Democrats move up presidential primary without GOP support". Axios. Retrieved March 3, 2023.
  14. ^ Egan, Paul (June 12, 2023). "New presidential delegate system sparks dispute among Michigan Republicans". Detroit Free Press. Retrieved December 27, 2023.
  15. ^ Egan, Paul (February 21, 2024). "Sparring GOP factions now plan 2 conventions at opposite ends of state". Detroit Free Press. Retrieved February 23, 2024.
  16. ^ Spangler, Todd; Egan, Paul (February 19, 2024). "Michigan Republicans to hold presidential nominating convention at Huntington Place". Detroit Free Press. Retrieved February 23, 2024.
  17. ^ Schuster, Simon (January 18, 2024). "Michigan Republicans plan March 2 presidential caucus in Detroit". mlive.
  18. ^ King, Jon (February 23, 2024). "Court ruling on MIGOP chair dispute expected next week". Michigan Advance.
  19. ^ Mauger, Craig (February 27, 2024). "Judge finds Kristina Karamo was removed as Michigan GOP chairwoman". The Detroit News. Retrieved February 28, 2024.
  20. ^ Mueller, Julia (February 27, 2024). "Judge affirms removal of Karamo as Michigan GOP chair". The Hill. Retrieved February 28, 2024.
  21. ^ Egan, Paul (February 28, 2024). "Judge bars Kristina Karamo from calling herself Michigan Republican Party chair". Detroit Free Press. Retrieved February 28, 2024.
  22. ^ Hicks, Justin; Schuster, Simon (February 27, 2024). "Judge rules Kristina Karamo was properly ousted as Michigan GOP chair". MLive Media Group. Retrieved February 28, 2024.
  23. ^ Egan, Paul (February 29, 2024). "Appeals Court denies Karamo request to suspend order removing her as Michigan GOP chair". Detroit Free Press. Retrieved February 29, 2024.
  24. ^ "District 1 Republicans to hold separate GOP Convention after credentials were denied for Grand Rapids". WLUC-TV. March 1, 2024. Retrieved March 1, 2024.
  25. ^ LeBlanc, Beth; Mauger, Craig (March 1, 2024). "Detroit convention canceled as Michigan GOP beset with 'chaos and confusion'". The Detroit News. Retrieved March 1, 2024.
  26. ^ Egan, Paul; Hendrickson, Clara (March 2, 2024). "Trump wins big at Michigan GOP district caucuses held at Grand Rapids convention". Detroit Free Press. Retrieved March 2, 2024.
  27. ^ "2024 Michigan Official Presidential Primary Candidate Listing - 02/27/2024". mielections.us.
  28. ^ "Which 2024 Republican Presidential Candidate Has The Most Endorsements?". FiveThirtyEight. April 24, 2023. Retrieved April 25, 2023.
  29. ^ a b c d e Oosting, Jonathan [@jonathanoosting] (April 6, 2023). "Ron DeSantis secures some Michigan endorsements for president, according to supporting super PAC: State Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt, Sens. Lana Theis, Michael Webber, Kevin Daley, Dan Lauwers and Joe Bellino, state Rep. Bryan Posthumus, former House Speaker Tom Leonard" (Tweet). Retrieved April 10, 2023 – via Twitter.
  30. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q "DeSantis is the Future - Never Back Down". neverbackdown.org. April 27, 2023.
  31. ^ a b Isenstadt, Alex (January 18, 2023). "Top Michigan Republicans move to draft DeSantis for 2024". Politico. Retrieved March 3, 2023.
  32. ^ LeBlanc, Beth (April 6, 2023). "DeSantis lays out Florida as blueprint for Republican success in Michigan speech". The Detroit News. Retrieved April 6, 2023.
  33. ^ a b c d "Haley Campaign Press Release - Nikki Haley Unveils Michigan State Leadership Team | The American Presidency Project". www.presidency.ucsb.edu.
  34. ^ "Our endorsement for the Michigan Democratic primary". The Detroit News. Retrieved February 10, 2024.
  35. ^ Gomez, Henry J. (March 2, 2023). "Michigan Businessman uses CPAC to launch Presidential Bid'". NBC News. Retrieved March 2, 2023.
  36. ^ https://facebook.com/profile/100004403986580/search/?q=Trump has my vote! Publicity worth millions[dead link‍]
  37. ^ a b c d e Singman, Brooke (July 11, 2023). "Trump wins 'clean sweep' of endorsements from Michigan's GOP congressional delegation". Fox News. Retrieved July 11, 2023.
  38. ^ Mauger, Craig (June 25, 2023). "Trump says push for electric vehicles will mean 'decimation' for Michigan's industry". The Detroit News. Retrieved June 25, 2023.
  39. ^ Finley, Nolan (January 8, 2024). "Finley: Mike Rogers to endorse Trump". The Detroit News. Retrieved January 8, 2024.
  40. ^ Oosting, Jonathan (September 23, 2023). "On Mackinac, Vivek Ramswamy steals Michigan GOP spotlight". Bridge Michigan. Retrieved September 23, 2023.
  41. ^ a b c Mauger, Craig; Leblanc, Beth (June 23, 2023). "As Donald Trump prepares for return to Michigan, cracks appear in his GOP support". The Detroit News. Retrieved June 23, 2023.
  42. ^ Mauger, Craig; Nann Burke, Melissa (November 16, 2022). "Muted Michigan GOP reaction to Trump's 3rd White House bid". The Detroit News. Retrieved March 18, 2023. (subscription required)
  43. ^ Lengel, Allan (September 1, 2023). "Ex-Detroit Police Chief James Craig Wants Trump For President In 2024". Deadline Detroit. Retrieved September 2, 2023.
  44. ^ Timotija, Filip (October 23, 2023). "Former GOP presidential candidate Perry Johnson endorses Trump". The Hill. Retrieved January 24, 2024.
  45. ^ FiveThirtyEight
  46. ^ Emerson College/The Hill
  47. ^ Michigan Information and Research Service (MIRS)
  48. ^ CNN/SSRS
  49. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l Morning Consult
  50. ^ Public Policy Polling (D)
  51. ^ Susquehanna University
  52. ^ Emerson College
  53. ^ Mitchell Research
  54. ^ Echelon Insights
  55. ^ Glengariff Group
  56. ^ "Secretary Benson releases 2024 presidential primary candidate list". Michigan Secretary of State. Retrieved December 8, 2023.[failed verification]
  57. ^ "2024 Michigan Election Results". Michigan Secretary of State. February 27, 2024. Retrieved March 2, 2024.
  58. ^ "Donald Trump wins Missouri and Michigan caucuses. Republicans in Idaho will also weigh in on 2024 race". CBS. March 2, 2024. Retrieved March 2, 2024.
  59. ^ "Maryland Presidential Primary Election Results 2024". NBC News. Retrieved May 14, 2024.
  60. ^ "Michigan Presidential Caucus Election Result". NBC News. March 2, 2024. Retrieved March 2, 2024.
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