Wikipedia

2016 United States Senate election in Hawaii

See also: 2016 United States Senate elections

The 2016 United States Senate election in Hawaii was held November 8, 2016, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primaries were held August 13. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Brian Schatz won reelection to his first full term in office, defeating Republican former state legislator John Carroll.

2016 United States Senate election in Hawaii
← 2014
(special)		 November 8, 2016 2022 →
 
Nominee Brian Schatz John Carroll
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 306,604 92,653
Percentage 73.61% 22.24%
County results
Schatz:      70–80%      >90%
U.S. senator before election

Brian Schatz
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Brian Schatz
Democratic

Background

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In 2011, Daniel Inouye announced that he planned to run for a record tenth term in 2016, when he would have been 92 years old.[1][2] He also said, "I have told my staff and I have told my family that when the time comes, when you question my sanity or question my ability to do things physically or mentally, I don't want you to hesitate, do everything to get me out of here, because I want to make certain the people of Hawaii get the best representation possible."[3]

Inouye died on December 17, 2012.[4] Hawaii Governor Neil Abercrombie appointed Lieutenant Governor Brian Schatz, a Democrat, to succeed Inouye. Schatz won a 2014 special election to serve the remainder of Inouye's term.[5]

Democratic primary

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Candidates

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Declared

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Declined

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Former

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Results

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Democratic primary results[10][11][12]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Brian Schatz (incumbent) 162,891 86.17%
Democratic Makani Christensen 11,898 6.29%
Democratic Miles Shiratori 8,620 4.56%
Democratic Arturo Reyes 3,819 2.02%
Democratic Tutz Honeychurch 1,815 0.96%
Total votes 189,043 100.00%

Republican primary

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Candidates

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Declared

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Withdrew

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  • Charles Collins, candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2012 and for Governor of Hawaii in 2014[13]

Declined

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Results

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Results by county:
  Carroll—70–80%
  Carroll—60–70%
Republican primary results[10][11][12]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican John Carroll 26,747 74.58%
Republican John P. Roco 3,956 11.03%
Republican Karla Gottschalk 3,045 8.49%
Republican Eddie Pirkowski 2,114 5.89%
Total votes 35,862 100.00%

Other primaries

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Libertarian

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Candidates

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Declared
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  • Michael Kokoski, nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2014[6]

Results

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Libertarian primary results[10][11][12]
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Michael Kokoski 909 100.00%
Total votes 909 100.00%

Constitution

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Candidates

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Declared
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  • Joy Allison, independent candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014[6]

Results

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Constitution primary results[10][11][12]
Party Candidate Votes %
Constitution Joy Allison 217 100.00%
Total votes 217 100.00%

American Shopping

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Candidates

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Declared
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  • John Giuffre[6]

Results

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American Shopping primary results[10][11][12]
Party Candidate Votes %
American Shopping John Giuffre 111 100.00%
Total votes 111 100.00%

General election

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Schatz defeated Carroll on election day, winning his second election to the U.S. Senate and his first full term after being appointed to the seat in 2012 following the death of Daniel Inouye. This was his largest margin of victory, as he won over 4% more of the electorate in this election.

Fundraising

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Candidate Raised Spent Cash on Hand
Brian Schatz (D)[14] $3,316,074 $1,195,572 $3,074,380
John Carroll (R)

Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[15] Safe D November 2, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[16] Safe D November 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[17] Safe D November 3, 2016
Daily Kos[18] Safe D November 8, 2016
Real Clear Politics[19] Safe D November 7, 2016

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Brian
Schatz (D) 		John
Carroll (R) 		Undecided
SurveyMonkey[20] November 1–7, 2016 426 ± 4.6% 70% 26% 4%
SurveyMonkey[21] October 31–November 6, 2016 426 ± 4.6% 67% 29% 4%
SurveyMonkey[22] October 28–November 3, 2016 435 ± 4.6% 68% 26% 6%
SurveyMonkey[23] October 27–November 2, 2016 424 ± 4.6% 70% 26% 4%
SurveyMonkey[24] October 26–November 1, 2016 428 ± 4.6% 70% 26% 4%
SurveyMonkey[25] October 25–31, 2016 467 ± 4.6% 69% 27% 4%

Results

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United States Senate election in Hawaii, 2016[26]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Brian Schatz (incumbent) 306,604 73.61% 3.83%
Republican John Carroll 92,653 22.24% −5.46%
Constitution Joy Allison 9,103 2.19% N/A
Libertarian Michael Kokowski 6,809 1.63% −0.89%
American Shopping John Giuffre 1,393 0.33% N/A
Total votes 416,562 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

By congressional district

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Schatz won both congressional districts.[27]

District Schatz Carroll Representative
1st 74% 22% Colleen Hanabusa
2nd 73% 22% Tulsi Gabbard

References

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  1. ^ a b Manu Raju and John Bresnahan (April 12, 2011). "Sen. Daniel Inouye goes silent on big Hawaiian race". Politico.
  2. ^ a b Hamilton, Chris. "The Maui News - Inouye has more he wants to do for (Hawaii Senator emphasizes need for Democrats to remain in control)". The Maui News. Retrieved September 2, 2012.
  3. ^ Mizutani, Ron (April 26, 2010). "Sen. Akaka: "God willing, I Plan to Run Again in 2012"". KHON2. Archived from the original on July 13, 2011. Retrieved March 3, 2011.
  4. ^ "Hawaii Sen. Daniel Inouye dies at age 88". Washington Post. Retrieved December 17, 2012.
  5. ^ a b Emily Cahn; Alexis Levinson (January 28, 2015). "Senators Confirm Re-Election Bids for 2016". Roll Call. Archived from the original on January 29, 2015. Retrieved January 29, 2015.
  6. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k "Federal State County Sorted by: Contest" (PDF). Hawaii Secretary of State. Retrieved June 8, 2016.
  7. ^ Stephen O'Harrow (August 18, 2014). "Dan Inouye and Brian Schatz: A Lesson in Hawaii Politics". Honolulu Civil Beat. Retrieved December 26, 2015.
  8. ^ a b Blair, Chad (March 14, 2015). "Tulsi Gabbard Looks to Be Running for Re-election". Honolulu Civil Beat. Retrieved December 26, 2015.
  9. ^ "Leadership Lessons from the Late Sen. Daniel Inouye". Forbes.
  10. ^ a b c d e "Statewide Results" (PDF). Hawaii Office of Elections. Archived from the original (PDF) on August 22, 2016. Retrieved August 13, 2016.
  11. ^ a b c d e "Hawaii Senate Races Results". Politico. Retrieved August 13, 2016.
  12. ^ a b c d e "Archived copy". Archived from the original on August 18, 2016. Retrieved August 16, 2016.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  13. ^ "Charles Collins for US Senate". Retrieved December 29, 2015.
  14. ^ "Schatz, Brian — Candidate for Senate". Federal Elections Commission. Retrieved August 15, 2016.
  15. ^ "2016 Senate Race Ratings for November 2, 2016". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 26, 2021.
  16. ^ "2016 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 19, 2016.
  17. ^ "2016 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
  18. ^ "Daily Kos Election 2016 forecast: The final version". Daily Kos. Retrieved March 27, 2021.
  19. ^ "Battle for the Senate 2016". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 28, 2016.
  20. ^ SurveyMonkey
  21. ^ SurveyMonkey
  22. ^ SurveyMonkey
  23. ^ SurveyMonkey
  24. ^ SurveyMonkey
  25. ^ SurveyMonkey
  26. ^ "Office of Elections – State of Hawaii – Statewide". State of Hawaii Office of Elections. August 16, 2016. p. 1. Retrieved November 18, 2016.
  27. ^ "Dra 2020".
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Official campaign websites

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