Wikipedia

2014 United States Senate election in Arkansas

For related races, see 2014 United States Senate elections.

The 2014 United States Senate election in Arkansas was held on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Arkansas, concurrently with the election of the Governor of Arkansas, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

2014 United States Senate election in Arkansas
← 2008 November 4, 2014 2020 →
 
Nominee Tom Cotton Mark Pryor
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 478,819 334,174
Percentage 56.50% 39.43%
Cotton:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Pryor:      50–60%      60–70%
U.S. senator before election

Mark Pryor
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Tom Cotton
Republican

Incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Pryor ran for re-election to a third term in office. He was unopposed in the Democratic primary; U.S. Representative Tom Cotton was also unopposed for the Republican nomination. While the race was initially expected to be close, Cotton prevailed by a margin of 57% to 39%.[1] The Associated Press called the race for Cotton immediately after the polls closed.[2] This marked the first time since Reconstruction in 1877 that Republicans held both Senate seats in Arkansas, and the Arkansas congressional delegation was entirely Republican. Pryor drew many comparisons to Blanche Lincoln, also a Democratic senator from Arkansas who was ultimately unseated in 2010, with Pryor receiving a similar fate.

Elected at age 37, Cotton surpassed Connecticut's Chris Murphy as the youngest incumbent senator at that time and remained so until the seating of Missouri’s Josh Hawley at the opening of the 116th United States Congress.

Background

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Arkansas Attorney General Mark Pryor was first elected to the Senate in 2002, defeating first-term Republican incumbent Tim Hutchinson. He was re-elected with 80% of the vote in 2008 as he was unopposed by a Republican candidate. He faced competition only from Green Party nominee Rebekah Kennedy, who won the largest share of the vote of any Green Party candidate in a Senate race in history.[3] Of the 88 previous occasions when an incumbent senator was re-elected without major party opposition and then went on to contest the following general election, all 88 were re-elected.[4]

Heading into the 2014 Cotton vs. Pryor matchup, only 17 House freshmen had been elected to the U.S. Senate over the last century, and just two in the last 40 years.[5] In the 2014 cycle, Cotton and Montana's Steve Daines became the 18th and 19th freshmen to win U.S. Senate races since 1914.[6]

The election was originally thought to be extremely close- a claim backed up by polling, but Tom Cotton ended up winning in a landslide against the incumbent, by 17.1 points.[7]

Democratic primary

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Candidates

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Nominee

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Declined

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Results

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Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Mark Pryor (incumbent) Unopposed
Total votes — 100.0

Republican primary

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Cotton was unopposed for the Republican nomination.

Candidates

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Nominee

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Declined

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Results

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Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Tom Cotton Unopposed
Total votes — 100.0

Third parties

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Candidates

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Declared

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  • Nathan LaFrance (Libertarian), energy executive[15]
  • Mark Swaney (Green), mechanical engineer and nominee for the state house in 2010[15]

General election

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Endorsements

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Tom Cotton (R)
Mark Pryor (D)

Fundraising

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Candidate Raised Spent Cash on Hand
Mark Pryor (D) $10,428,246 $12,034,784 $364,653
Tom Cotton (R) $7,557,443 $6,411,763 $1,885,435

Debates

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Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[22] Tossup November 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball[23] Likely R (flip) November 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report[24] Lean R (flip) November 3, 2014
Real Clear Politics[25] Lean R (flip) November 3, 2014

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Mark
Pryor (D) 		Tom
Cotton (R) 		Other Undecided
Basswood Research[26] March 16–17, 2013 600 ± 4% 35% 43% — 22%
Basswood Research[27] June 22–23, 2013 600 ± 4% 41% 40% — 19%
Clark Research[28] July 23–27, 2013 729 ± 4% 43% 35% — 21%
On Message Inc.[29] July 29–30, 2013 600 ± 4% 42% 44% — 14%
Harper Polling[30] August 4–5, 2013 587 ± 4.04% 41% 43% — 16%
Global Strategy Group[31] August 26–29, 2013 501 ± ?% 47% 40% — 13%
Harper Polling[32] September 24–26, 2013 622 ± 3.93% 45% 42% — 13%
Talk Business/Hendrix College[33] October 8, 2013 603 ± 4% 42% 41% — 17%
Public Policy Polling[34] October 14–15, 2013 955 ± 3.2% 44% 41% — 15%
University of Arkansas[35] October 10–17, 2013 800 ± 3.5% 34% 32% — 34%
Impact Management Group[36] October 24, 2013 911 ± 3.2% 41% 42% — 18%
Polling Company/WomanTrend[37] December 6–7, 2013 400 ± 4.9% 41% 48% — 9%
Public Policy Polling[38] December 13–15, 2013 1,004 ± 3.1% 44% 44% — 12%
Rasmussen Reports[39] February 4–5, 2014 500 ± 4.5% 40% 45% 5% 10%
Harper Polling[40] January 26–27, 2014 533 ± 4.24% 36% 42% — 22%
Impact Management Group[41] February 10, 2014 1,202 ± 2.83% 42% 46% — 13%
Hickman Analytics[42] February 17–20, 2014 400 ± 4.9% 39% 41% 8% 12%
42% 51% — 8%
Anzalone Liszt Grove Research[43] March 27 – April 2, 2014 600 ± 4% 48% 45% — 7%
Talk Business/Hendrix College[44] April 3–4, 2014 1,068 ± 3% 46% 43% 4%[45] 8%
Opinion Research Associates[46] April 1–8, 2014 400 ± 5% 48% 38% — 8%
Harper Polling[47] April 9–10, 2014 522 ± 4.29% 39% 39% — 22%
New York Times/Kaiser Family[48] April 8–15, 2014 857 ± 4% 46% 36% 4% 15%
Magellan Strategies[49] April 14–15, 2014 857 ± 3.35% 43% 46% 4% 7%
Public Policy Polling[50] April 25–27, 2014 840 ± 3.4% 43% 42% — 16%
NBC News/Marist[51] April 30 – May 4, 2014 876 ± 3.3% 51% 40% 1% 3%
Rasmussen Reports[39] May 27–28, 2014 750 ± 4% 43% 47% 4% 6%
Public Opinion Strategies[52] May 27–29, 2014 500 ± 4.39% 41% 46% — 13%
Fabrizio Lee[53] June 3–5, 2014 600 ± 4% 43% 51% — 5%
Magellan Strategies[54] June 4–5, 2014 755 ± 3.57% 45% 49% 2% 4%
Impact Management Group[55] June 29, 2014 1290 ± 2.72% 43% 47% — 10%
Gravis Marketing[56] July 7–8, 2014 987 ± 3% 44% 51% 5%[57] —
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[58] July 5–24, 2014 1,628 ± 2.9% 45% 49% 1% 5%
Anzalone Liszt Grove Research[59] July 20–24, 2014 600 ± 4% 48% 46% — 6%
Talk Business/Hendrix College[60] July 22–25, 2014 1,780 ± 2.3% 42% 44% 7%[61] 7%
Public Policy Polling[62] August 1–3, 2014 1,066 ± 3% 39% 41% 7%[61] 14%
41% 43% — 16%
Opinion Research Associates[63] August 6–14, 2014 414 ± 4.9% 46% 41% 4%[45] 9%
Rasmussen Reports[39] August 25–26, 2014 750 ± 4% 44% 43% 6% 6%
ccAdvertising[64] August 31 – September 1, 2014 1,735 ± ? 29% 37% — 34%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[65] August 18 – September 2, 2014 1,572 ± 3% 39% 43% 2% 16%
CNN/ORC International[66] August 28 – September 2, 2014 523 LV ± 4.5% 47% 49% — 4%
839 RV ± 3.5% 47% 38% — 14%
Hickman Analytics[67] August 26 – September 3, 2014 700 ± 3.7% 45% 43% — 12%
NBC News/Marist[68] September 2–4, 2014 639 LV ± 3.9% 40% 45% 6%[69] 9%
1,068 RV ± 3% 41% 41% 8%[70] 11%
Answers Unlimited[71] September 7–9, 2014 600 ± 3.5% 46% 42% 4%[45] 8%
Gravis Marketing[72] September 8–11, 2014 902 ± 4% 43% 47% 2%[57] 8%
Hickman Analytics[73] September 13–18, 2014 801 ± 3.5% 46% 43% — 11%
Public Policy Polling[74] September 18–21, 2014 1,453 ± 2.6% 38% 43% 6%[75] 13%
39% 45% — 15%
Suffolk[76] September 20–23, 2014 500 ± 4.4% 45% 43% 5%[75] 7%
Rasmussen Reports[39] September 24–25, 2014 750 ± 4% 40% 47% 5% 8%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[77] September 20 – October 1, 2014 1,991 ± 2% 41% 45% 1% 13%
Opinion Research Associates[78] October 1–5, 2014 400 ± 5% 45% 42% 5% 9%
Fox News[79] October 4–7, 2014 707 ± 3.5% 39% 46% 5%[80] 11%
Rasmussen Reports[39] October 13–15, 2014 940 ± 3% 44% 47% 4% 5%
Talk Business/Hendrix[81] October 15–16, 2014 2,075 ± 2.2% 40.5% 49% 5%[82] 6%
NBC News/Marist[83] October 19–23, 2014 621 ± 3.9% 43% 45% 6%[69] 7%
971 ± 3.1% 43% 42% 6%[69] 9%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[77] October 16–23, 2014 1,567 ± 4% 42% 47% 1% 10%
Opinion Research Associates[84] October 25–26, 2014 401 ± 5% 45% 44% 2%[85] 10%
Issues & Answers Network[86] October 21–27, 2014 568 ± 4.1% 36% 49% — 15%
Rasmussen Reports[39] October 27–29, 2014 967 ± 3% 44% 51% 4% 2%
Public Policy Polling[87] October 30 – November 1, 2014 1,092 ± 3% 41% 49% 4%[88] 5%
45% 51% — 4%
Opinion Research Associates[89] October 30 – November 1, 2014 400 ± 5% 45% 43% 4%[88] 8%

Results

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United States Senate election in Arkansas, 2014[90]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Tom Cotton 478,819 56.50% N/A
Democratic Mark Pryor (incumbent) 334,174 39.43% −40.10%
Libertarian Nathan LaFrance 17,210 2.03% N/A
Green Mark Swaney 16,797 1.98% −18.49%
Write-in 505 0.06% N/A
Total votes 847,505 100.00% N/A
Republican gain from Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

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See also

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References

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  1. ^ "November 4, 2014 Arkansas General Election and Nonpartisan Runoff Election OFFICIAL RESULTS". November 4, 2014. Retrieved September 8, 2022.
  2. ^ Glueck, Katie. "Cotton defeats Pryor in Arkansas". POLITICO.
  3. ^ "Blog Archive » Rebekah Kennedy Pulls Record Results for U.S. Senate - America's #1 Source for Green Party News & Views". Green Party Watch. November 7, 2008. Retrieved September 4, 2010.
  4. ^ Ostermeier, Eric (August 5, 2013). "Mark Pryor Could Face Historic Defeat in 2014". Smart Politics.
  5. ^ Ostermeier, Eric (March 20, 2013). "Tom Cotton's Quandary: Can House Freshmen Win Senate Seats?". Smart Politics.
  6. ^ Ostermeier, Eric (November 17, 2014). "Will a Freshman US Representative Win a Senate Seat in 2016?". Smart Politics.
  7. ^ Glueck, Katie. "Cotton defeats Pryor in Arkansas". POLITICO. Retrieved January 14, 2021.
  8. ^ "Sen. Mark Pryor is running for re-election in 2014". Arkansas Times. April 19, 2012.
  9. ^ "D.C. GOP can't get a pulse on Arkansas". Natural State Report. July 31, 2013. Archived from the original on August 1, 2013.
  10. ^ Glueck, Katie (July 31, 2013). "Arkansas's Tom Cotton to run for U.S. Senate". Politico.
  11. ^ Daniels, Alex; Frago, Charlie (November 12, 2012). "Democrat Mark Pryor seen as likely GOP target in '14". Arkansas Online.
  12. ^ DeMillo, Andrew (August 13, 2013). "Mark Darr Announces Run for Arkansas' 4th District Seat". Arkansas Business. Associated Press.
  13. ^ "Griffin Wins Seat on Ways and Means Committee, Will Not Seek Higher Office in 2014". talkbusiness.net. Archived from the original on December 3, 2012.
  14. ^ a b c Saylor, Ryan (August 7, 2013). "Democrats, Republicans React To Cotton, Changing Political Landscape". Talk Business Arkansas. Retrieved August 13, 2013.
  15. ^ a b "Candidates who filed for office in Arkansas". sfgate.com. March 3, 2014. Retrieved March 5, 2014.
  16. ^ Trygstad, Kyle. "Club for Growth Backs Mark Pryor Challenger". Roll Call. Retrieved August 7, 2013.
  17. ^ Leary, Alex. "Rubio endorses Tom Cotton in Arkansas Senate race". Tampa Bay Times. Archived from the original on September 21, 2013. Retrieved September 20, 2013.
  18. ^ Kubin, Jacquie. "Allen West Guardian Fund 2014: Endorsing tomorrow's leaders". The Washington Times. Retrieved September 19, 2013.
  19. ^ "Rick Santorum and Patriot Voices PAC Announce Endorsements in Four Key U.S. Senate Races". Patriot Voices. April 22, 2014. Retrieved April 25, 2014.[permanent dead link‍]
  20. ^ "Political Note: Romney Endorses Cotton". Time Record Online Edition. June 13, 2014. Retrieved July 31, 2014.
  21. ^ Brantley, Max (April 25, 2014). "UPDATE: Arkansas Education Association to endorse Mark Pryor. And, boy, did he go after Cotton today on Medicare, Social Security". Arkansas Times. Retrieved July 31, 2014.
  22. ^ "2014 Senate Race Ratings for November 3, 2014". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  23. ^ "The Crystal Ball's Final 2014 Picks". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  24. ^ "2014 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  25. ^ "2014 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2014". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  26. ^ Basswood Research
  27. ^ Basswood Research
  28. ^ Clark Research
  29. ^ On Message Inc.
  30. ^ Harper Polling
  31. ^ Global Strategy Group
  32. ^ Harper Polling
  33. ^ Talk Business/Hendrix College
  34. ^ Public Policy Polling
  35. ^ University of Arkansas
  36. ^ Impact Management Group
  37. ^ Polling Company/WomanTrend
  38. ^ Public Policy Polling
  39. ^ a b c d e f Rasmussen Reports
  40. ^ Harper Polling
  41. ^ Impact Management Group
  42. ^ Hickman Analytics
  43. ^ Anzalone Liszt Grove Research
  44. ^ Talk Business/Hendrix College
  45. ^ a b c Nathan LaFrance (L) 2%, Mark Swaney (G) 2%
  46. ^ Opinion Research Associates
  47. ^ Harper Polling
  48. ^ New York Times/Kaiser Family
  49. ^ Magellan Strategies
  50. ^ Public Policy Polling
  51. ^ NBC News/Marist
  52. ^ Public Opinion Strategies
  53. ^ Fabrizio Lee
  54. ^ Magellan Strategies
  55. ^ Impact Management Group
  56. ^ Gravis Marketing
  57. ^ a b Nathan LaFrance (L)
  58. ^ CBS News/NYT/YouGov
  59. ^ Anzalone Liszt Grove Research
  60. ^ Talk Business/Hendrix College
  61. ^ a b Nathan LaFrance (L) 3%, Mark Swaney (G) 4%
  62. ^ Public Policy Polling
  63. ^ Opinion Research Associates
  64. ^ ccAdvertising
  65. ^ CBS News/NYT/YouGov
  66. ^ CNN/ORC International
  67. ^ Hickman Analytics
  68. ^ NBC News/Marist
  69. ^ a b c Nathan LaFrance (L) 2%, Mark Swaney (G) 3%, Other 1%
  70. ^ Nathan LaFrance (L) 3%, Mark Swaney (G) 4%, Other 1%
  71. ^ Answers Unlimited
  72. ^ Gravis Marketing
  73. ^ Hickman Analytics
  74. ^ Public Policy Polling
  75. ^ a b Nathan LaFrance (L) 3%, Mark Swaney (G) 3%
  76. ^ Suffolk Archived September 25, 2014, at the Wayback Machine
  77. ^ a b CBS News/NYT/YouGov
  78. ^ Opinion Research Associates Archived October 10, 2014, at the Wayback Machine
  79. ^ Fox News
  80. ^ Nathan LaFrance (L) 2%, Mark Swaney (G) 2%, Other 1%
  81. ^ Talk Business/Hendrix
  82. ^ Nathan LaFrance (L) 3%, Mark Swaney (G) 2%
  83. ^ NBC News/Marist
  84. ^ Opinion Research Associates
  85. ^ Nathan LaFrance (L) 1%, Mark Swaney (G) 1%
  86. ^ Issues & Answers Network
  87. ^ Public Policy Polling
  88. ^ a b Nathan LaFrance (L) 1%, Mark Swaney (G) 3%
  89. ^ Opinion Research Associates
  90. ^ "November 4, 2014 General election and nonpartisan runoff election Official results". Arkansas Secretary of State. Retrieved November 23, 2014.
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Campaign websites (Archived)

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