Wikipedia

2010 United States Senate election in Hawaii

The 2010 United States Senate election in Hawaii took place on November 2, 2010, concurrently with elections to the United States Senate in other states as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primary elections were held on September 18, 2010.[1] Incumbent Senator Daniel Inouye, also the President pro tempore, secured the Democratic nomination with over 88 percent of the vote over his sole challenger, businessman Andy Woerner, while former state legislator (and Inouye's 2004 opponent) Campbell Cavasso won the Republican nomination with two-thirds of the primary vote.

2010 United States Senate election in Hawaii
← 2004 November 2, 2010 2014
(special) →
 
Nominee Daniel Inouye Campbell Cavasso
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 277,228 79,939
Percentage 74.81% 21.57%
County results
Inouye:      70–80%
U.S. senator before election

Daniel Inouye
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Daniel Inouye
Democratic

Focuses of the campaign included Inouye's seniority and ability to direct federal resources to the state, as well as Cavasso's emphases on change and fiscal responsibility. Polling found Inouye with a large lead, although one poll gave the Democrat a lead of only thirteen points, greatly underestimating his share of the vote. Inouye won re-election to his ninth and final term, with nearly 75 percent of the vote to Cavasso's 21.6 percent. The Senator would not serve out his ninth term, as he died in December 2012 and was replaced by appointed then-Lieutenant governor Brian Schatz.

Background

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Hawaii last elected a Republican Senator in 1970, and its current delegation to the United States Congress currently consists entirely of Democrats. Democrats have also won Hawaii's electoral votes in every presidential election since Ronald Reagan's landslide election in 1984. The exceptions at the time were then-Governor Linda Lingle (who was serving her second and final term) and then-U.S. Representative Charles Djou, both of whom are Republicans.

Democratic primary

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Candidates

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Results

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Democratic primary results[2]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Daniel Inouye (incumbent) 188,400 88.3%
Democratic Andy Woerner 25,016 11.7%
Total votes 213,416 100.0%

Republican primary

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Candidates

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  • Campbell Cavasso, former State Representative, candidate for Lieutenant Governor in 2002, and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2004
  • Eddie Pirkowski, businessman and U.S. Senate candidate in the 2006 primary
  • John Roco

Results

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Results by county:
  Cavasso—70–80%
  Cavasso—60–70%
  Cavasso—50–60%
Republican primary results[2]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Campbell Cavasso 21,865 66.7%
Republican John Roco 7,190 21.9%
Republican Eddie Pirkowski 3,744 11.4%
Total votes 32,790 100.0%

General election

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Candidates

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Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[3] Solid D October 26, 2010
Rothenberg[4] Safe D October 22, 2010
RealClearPolitics[5] Safe D October 26, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball[6] Safe D October 21, 2010
CQ Politics[7] Safe D October 26, 2010

Campaign

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The death of longtime U.S. Senator Robert Byrd allowed Inouye to become the President pro tempore and Chairman of the United States Senate Committee on Appropriations. He made no apologies for bringing home as much federal money as he could, despite Republican insistence that the U.S. government taxed and spent too much, a stance he called a "nice gimmick". The Maui News endorsed his reelection.[8]

Cavasso, the 2004 nominee, won the Republican primary again, and ran on a platform of change, emphasizing the need for a balanced budget.[9] Inouye, who defeated Cavasso in 2004 by 52 percentage points, released TV ads that referred to himself simply as "Dan". The senator was said to be "working" for Hawaii's transportation, high-tech economy, education and other needs.[10]

Polling

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A Rasmussen Reports poll of 500 likely voters conducted on October 13 gave Inouye only a thirteen-point lead over Cavasso, and found the Republican with a modest lead among independent voters.[11][12] However, the poll would ultimately miss the final margin by forty percentage points.[13] Fivethirtyeight's Nate Silver awarded the Rasmussen poll his "worst poll award", citing it as evidence of the pollster's bias against Democratic candidates and observing that it was, as of November 2010, the largest error of any electoral poll in the Fivethirtyeight databases going back to 1998.[14][13]

Hypothetical polling numbers with John Roco (R)
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Daniel
Inouye (D) 		John
Roco (R) 		Other Undecided
Rasmussen Reports[15] June 24, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 68% 20% 3% 8%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Daniel
Inouye (D) 		Cam
Cavasso (R) 		Other Undecided
Rasmussen Reports[16] October 13, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 53% 40% 3% 4%
Public Policy Polling[17] October 2–3, 2010 1326 ± 2.7% 65% 29% — 6%

Fundraising

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Candidate (party) Receipts Disbursements Cash on hand Debt
Daniel Inouye (D) $3,503,323 $3,814,829 $1,506,305 $0
Campbell Cavasso (R) $252,711 $238,794 $14,385 $126,179
Source: Federal Election Commission[18]

Results

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United States Senate election in Hawaii, 2010[19]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Daniel Inouye (incumbent) 277,228 74.81% −0.70%
Republican Campbell Cavasso 79,939 21.57% 0.58%
Green Jim Brewer 7,762 2.09% N/A
Libertarian Lloyd Jeffrey Mallen 2,957 0.80% −0.47%
Independent Jeff Jarrett 2,697 0.73% N/A
Total votes 370,583 100.00%
Democratic hold

References

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  1. ^ "Official Election Results for United States Senate" (PDF). Federal Election Commission. 2010. Archived (PDF) from the original on March 23, 2022.
  2. ^ a b "Hawaii Senate Primary Results". Politico. September 18, 2010. Retrieved September 19, 2010.
  3. ^ "Senate". Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 26, 2010.
  4. ^ "Senate Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 26, 2010.
  5. ^ "Battle for the Senate". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved October 26, 2010.
  6. ^ "2010 Senate Ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 26, 2010.
  7. ^ "Race Ratings Chart: Senate". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 26, 2010.
  8. ^ "News Clippings". Archived from the original on October 23, 2010. Retrieved October 30, 2010.
  9. ^ "Cavasso Files For US Senate Run | Cam Cavasso | Hawaii Senate Race 2010". Archived from the original on October 8, 2010. Retrieved October 30, 2010.
  10. ^ Cavasso undeterred by odds in campaign against Inouye - Hawaii News - Staradvertiser.com
  11. ^ "Questions - Hawaii Senate - October 13, 2010". Rasmussen Reports. Retrieved June 12, 2021.
  12. ^ Rasmussen, Scott (October 17, 2010). "Election 2010: Hawaii Senate". Rasmussen Reports. Archived from the original on November 5, 2010. Retrieved June 12, 2021.
  13. ^ a b Silver, Nate (November 4, 2010). "Rasmussen Polls Were Biased and Inaccurate; Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA Performed Strongly". Fivethirtyeight. Retrieved June 12, 2021.
  14. ^ Silver, Nate (November 2, 2010). "Live Blogging the Election Returns". Fivethirtyeight. Retrieved June 12, 2021.
  15. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  16. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  17. ^ Public Policy Polling
  18. ^ "2010 House and Senate Campaign Finance for Hawaii". fec.gov. Retrieved July 27, 2010. [permanent dead link‍]
  19. ^ "2010 GENERAL ELECTION - State of Hawaii – Statewide" (PDF). Hawaii Office of Elections.
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Official campaign websites

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