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2008 United States presidential election in Nebraska

Main article: 2008 United States presidential election

The 2008 United States presidential election in Nebraska took place on November 4, 2008, as part of the 2008 United States presidential election. Voters chose five electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president. However, Nebraska is one of the two states of the U.S. that, instead of giving all of its electors to the winner based on its statewide results, allocates just two electoral votes to the winner of the statewide popular vote. The other three electors vote based on each congressional district's results.

2008 United States presidential election in Nebraska
← 2004 November 4, 2008 2012 →
 
Nominee John McCain Barack Obama
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Arizona Illinois
Running mate Sarah Palin Joe Biden
Electoral vote 4 1
Popular vote 452,979 333,319
Percentage 56.53% 41.60%
President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

Elected President

Barack Obama
Democratic

Nebraska, statewide, was not a swing state in 2008. Located in the Great Plains of the United States, it is one of the most staunchly Republican states in the country. While some hypothetical general election match-up polls between Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama showed the race to be seemingly close, they were largely regarded as outliers as more polls released showed McCain leading in double digits. McCain wound up carrying the popular vote in Nebraska by 14.93 points, taking in 56.53% of the total statewide vote. However, Obama narrowly defeated McCain in Nebraska's 2nd congressional district, which contains Omaha and the surrounding areas. Obama was the first Democrat to win the district since 1964.

Due to Nebraska's system of allocating electoral votes to winners of Congressional Districts, Obama won one electoral vote while John McCain received the state's other four electoral votes. On top of this, his 41.6% of the statewide popular vote is the highest a Democratic presidential candidate has won in Nebraska since Lyndon B. Johnson carried the state in his 1964 landslide. This was the first election ever that Nebraska split its electoral votes, and the first since 1964 that a Democrat won an electoral vote from the state, which would later occur in 2020, and 2024. As of 2024, this remains the last time that a Democrat has won more than 40% of the vote in Nebraska.

Primaries & caucuses

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Campaign

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Predictions

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There were 16 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

Source Ranking
D.C. Political Report[1] Likely R
Cook Political Report[2] Solid R
The Takeaway[3] Solid R
Electoral-vote.com[4] Solid R
Washington Post[5] Solid R
Politico[6] Solid R
RealClearPolitics[7] Solid R
FiveThirtyEight[5] Solid R
CQ Politics[8] Solid R
The New York Times[9] Solid R
CNN[10] Solid R
NPR[5] Solid R
MSNBC[5] Solid R
Fox News[11] Likely R
Associated Press[12] Likely R
Rasmussen Reports[13] Safe R

Polling

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Main article: Statewide opinion polling for the 2008 United States presidential election: Nebraska

McCain led in every single pre-election poll. Since May, he led in each poll by a double-digit margin of victory and each with at least 52% of the vote.[14]

Fundraising

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John McCain raised a total of $678,059 in the state, while Barack Obama raised $864,393.[15]

Advertising and visits

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Obama spent $55,807 while McCain and the Republican Trust PAC spent a total of just $1,225.[16] Both Obama and McCain visited the state once. Obama held a downtown rally at Omaha[17] and McCain traveled to both Omaha and Ashland. Palin also visited Omaha once.[18]

Campaign in Omaha

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Nebraska has two electoral votes that go to the winner of the popular vote in the state, while the other three are split based on whichever candidate wins the popular vote in each of Nebraska's three congressional districts, all of which have trended Republican in the past elections. However, Nebraska's 2nd congressional District, which encompasses Omaha, is significantly less conservative.

Nebraska's second congressional was considered as a battleground area by some, leading the Obama campaign to open a single campaign office in Omaha with 15 staff members to cover the congressional district in September 2008.[19] More than 900 people attended the opening of those offices. Democratic Mayor Mike Fahey of Omaha said that he would do whatever it takes to deliver the electoral vote tied to the 2nd Congressional District to Obama, and the Obama Campaign considered Nebraska's 2nd congressional district "in play".[20] Former Democratic U.S. Senator Bob Kerrey and then senior U.S. Senator Ben Nelson campaigned in the city for Obama.[21]

Analysis

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Nebraska, part of the conservative Great Plains region, is one of the most Republican states in the nation. It has only gone Democratic in a presidential election seven times since statehood. Continuing on that trend, McCain won Nebraska by nearly 15 points. Obama was only able to win four counties: Douglas County, which contains Omaha; Lancaster County, which contains the state capital of Lincoln and the University of Nebraska; Saline County; and Thurston County, which contains a Native American reservation and was the only county to be won by John Kerry in 2004. No Democratic presidential nominee since Lyndon B. Johnson's landslide 1964 victory has ever won more than four counties in Nebraska.[22] In 2008, McCain won Nebraska's 1st Congressional District and Nebraska's 3rd Congressional District by fairly safe margins,[23] along with the state as a whole, but Obama managed to carry Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, based in Omaha, by a slim margin of 1,260 votes, resulting in one of Nebraska's five electoral votes being awarded to Obama.[24] This was a particularly notable win, because with Nebraska's split electoral vote system Obama became the first Democratic presidential candidate to win an electoral vote from Nebraska since 1964.[25]

Obama did particularly well in the state's two most populated counties, Douglas and Lancaster. Obama was able to carve out small victories and became the first Democrat to carry those counties since 1964.[26] As of the 2020 presidential election, this is the last election in which Saline County voted Democratic.

During the same election, Republicans held the open U.S. Senate seat vacated by Republican Chuck Hagel who retired. Former Republican Governor Mike Johanns easily defeated Democrat Scott Kleeb, a rancher, by 17.46 points. Johanns received 57.52% of the total vote while Kleeb took in 40.06%. At the state level, a candidate known to be a Republican picked up a seat in the nonpartisan and unicameral Nebraska Legislature in 2008.

Results

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Statewide

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2008 United States presidential election in Nebraska
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Republican John McCain Sarah Palin 452,979 56.53% 4
Democratic Barack Obama Joe Biden 333,319 41.60% 1
Independent Ralph Nader Matt Gonzalez 5,406 0.67% 0
Constitution Chuck Baldwin Darrell Castle 2,972 0.37% 0
Write-ins Write-in candidates 2,837 0.35% 0
Libertarian Bob Barr Wayne Allyn Root 2,740 0.34% 0
Green Cynthia McKinney Rosa Clemente 1,028 0.13% 0
Totals 801,281 100.00% 5
Voter turnout n/a —

By county

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County John McCain
Republican 		Barack Obama
Democratic 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Adams 8,252 62.47% 4,685 35.47% 273 2.06% 3,567 27.00% 13,210
Antelope 2,383 74.82% 757 23.77% 45 1.41% 1,626 51.05% 3,185
Arthur 217 82.51% 39 14.83% 7 2.66% 178 67.68% 263
Banner 348 83.65% 62 14.90% 6 1.45% 286 68.75% 416
Blaine 266 84.18% 43 13.61% 7 2.21% 223 70.57% 316
Boone 2,042 72.00% 742 26.16% 52 1.84% 1,300 45.84% 2,836
Box Butte 2,932 58.89% 1,886 37.88% 161 3.23% 1,046 21.01% 4,979
Boyd 839 75.59% 250 22.52% 21 1.89% 589 53.07% 1,110
Brown 1,208 77.09% 311 19.85% 48 3.06% 897 57.24% 1,567
Buffalo 13,097 67.88% 5,867 30.41% 329 1.71% 7,230 37.47% 19,293
Burt 1,907 56.30% 1,413 41.72% 67 1.98% 494 14.58% 3,387
Butler 2,557 66.61% 1,190 31.00% 92 2.39% 1,367 35.61% 3,839
Cass 7,120 58.74% 4,753 39.21% 249 2.05% 2,367 19.53% 12,122
Cedar 2,912 69.77% 1,190 28.51% 72 1.72% 1,722 41.26% 4,174
Chase 1,477 80.10% 341 18.49% 26 1.41% 1,136 61.61% 1,844
Cherry 2,360 77.15% 599 19.58% 100 3.27% 1,761 57.57% 3,059
Cheyenne 3,572 73.82% 1,173 24.24% 94 1.94% 2,399 49.58% 4,839
Clay 2,177 71.78% 780 25.72% 76 2.50% 1,397 46.06% 3,033
Colfax 2,018 63.00% 1,125 35.12% 60 1.88% 893 27.88% 3,203
Cuming 2,732 66.85% 1,274 31.17% 81 1.98% 1,458 35.68% 4,087
Custer 4,301 77.11% 1,192 21.37% 85 1.52% 3,109 55.74% 5,578
Dakota 3,292 51.47% 2,994 46.81% 110 1.72% 298 4.66% 6,396
Dawes 2,376 62.94% 1,285 34.04% 114 3.02% 1,091 28.90% 3,775
Dawson 5,460 68.37% 2,399 30.04% 127 1.59% 3,061 38.33% 7,986
Deuel 732 73.72% 243 24.47% 18 1.81% 489 49.25% 993
Dixon 1,785 63.89% 946 33.86% 63 2.25% 839 30.03% 2,794
Dodge 8,557 55.03% 6,689 43.02% 304 1.95% 1,868 12.01% 15,550
Douglas 106,291 46.89% 116,810 51.53% 3,600 1.58% -10,519 -4.64% 226,701
Dundy 783 76.84% 218 21.39% 18 1.77% 565 55.45% 1,019
Fillmore 1,913 64.91% 962 32.64% 72 2.45% 951 32.27% 2,947
Franklin 1,079 69.52% 442 28.48% 31 2.00% 637 41.04% 1,552
Frontier 1,034 73.65% 349 24.86% 21 1.49% 685 48.79% 1,404
Furnas 1,725 74.10% 556 23.88% 47 2.02% 1,169 50.22% 2,328
Gage 5,435 53.49% 4,473 44.03% 252 2.48% 962 9.46% 10,160
Garden 844 74.17% 283 24.87% 11 0.96% 561 49.30% 1,138
Garfield 800 77.67% 212 20.58% 18 1.75% 588 57.09% 1,030
Gosper 776 74.05% 260 24.81% 12 1.14% 516 49.24% 1,048
Grant 318 86.65% 41 11.17% 8 2.18% 277 75.48% 367
Greeley 715 59.63% 458 38.20% 26 2.17% 257 21.43% 1,199
Hall 12,977 61.01% 7,855 36.93% 439 2.06% 5,122 24.08% 21,271
Hamilton 3,389 70.62% 1,332 27.76% 78 1.62% 2,057 42.86% 4,799
Harlan 1,329 75.25% 402 22.76% 35 1.99% 927 52.49% 1,766
Hayes 461 83.36% 85 15.37% 7 1.27% 376 67.99% 553
Hitchcock 1,001 72.59% 346 25.09% 32 2.32% 655 47.50% 1,379
Holt 3,746 75.31% 1,089 21.89% 139 2.80% 2,657 53.42% 4,974
Hooker 355 81.05% 75 17.12% 8 1.83% 280 63.93% 438
Howard 1,847 61.65% 1,083 36.15% 66 2.20% 764 25.50% 2,996
Jefferson 2,103 56.88% 1,520 41.11% 74 2.01% 583 15.77% 3,697
Johnson 1,142 54.12% 914 43.32% 54 2.56% 228 10.80% 2,110
Kearney 2,224 70.60% 876 27.81% 50 1.59% 1,348 42.79% 3,150
Keith 2,942 74.14% 974 24.55% 52 1.31% 1,968 49.59% 3,968
Keya Paha 409 76.74% 115 21.58% 9 1.68% 294 55.16% 533
Kimball 1,346 74.32% 439 24.24% 26 1.44% 907 50.08% 1,811
Knox 2,728 66.80% 1,255 30.73% 101 2.47% 1,473 36.07% 4,084
Lancaster 59,398 46.59% 65,734 51.56% 2,358 1.85% -6,336 -4.97% 127,490
Lincoln 10,817 66.46% 5,046 31.00% 414 2.54% 5,771 35.46% 16,277
Logan 327 78.61% 81 19.47% 8 1.92% 246 59.14% 416
Loup 302 76.84% 86 21.88% 5 1.28% 216 54.96% 393
Madison 9,655 68.74% 4,142 29.49% 248 1.77% 5,513 39.25% 14,045
McPherson 240 81.91% 45 15.36% 8 2.73% 195 66.55% 293
Merrick 2,375 69.22% 986 28.74% 70 2.04% 1,389 40.48% 3,431
Morrill 1,725 73.37% 557 23.69% 69 2.94% 1,168 49.68% 2,351
Nance 1,116 65.38% 549 32.16% 42 2.46% 567 33.22% 1,707
Nemaha 2,134 61.43% 1,240 35.69% 100 2.88% 894 25.74% 3,474
Nuckolls 1,498 67.45% 657 29.58% 66 2.97% 841 37.87% 2,221
Otoe 4,033 56.87% 2,915 41.10% 144 2.03% 1,118 15.77% 7,092
Pawnee 859 62.07% 483 34.90% 42 3.03% 376 27.17% 1,384
Perkins 1,092 76.90% 310 21.83% 18 1.27% 782 55.07% 1,420
Phelps 3,360 75.12% 1,050 23.47% 63 1.41% 2,310 51.65% 4,473
Pierce 2,385 73.93% 783 24.27% 58 1.80% 1,602 49.66% 3,226
Platte 9,373 69.84% 3,796 28.29% 251 1.87% 5,577 41.55% 13,420
Polk 1,822 71.65% 668 26.27% 53 2.08% 1,154 45.38% 2,543
Red Willow 3,735 74.05% 1,216 24.11% 93 1.84% 2,519 49.94% 5,044
Richardson 2,342 59.02% 1,513 38.13% 113 2.85% 829 20.89% 3,968
Rock 640 79.90% 139 17.35% 22 2.75% 501 62.55% 801
Saline 2,434 46.35% 2,674 50.92% 143 2.73% -240 -4.57% 5,251
Sarpy 38,816 57.06% 28,010 41.18% 1,196 1.76% 10,806 15.88% 68,022
Saunders 6,188 60.60% 3,767 36.89% 257 2.51% 2,421 23.71% 10,212
Scotts Bluff 9,708 65.91% 4,745 32.21% 277 1.88% 4,963 33.70% 14,730
Seward 4,647 61.72% 2,703 35.90% 179 2.38% 1,944 25.82% 7,529
Sheridan 1,941 78.84% 454 18.44% 67 2.72% 1,487 60.40% 2,462
Sherman 950 60.43% 585 37.21% 37 2.36% 365 23.22% 1,572
Sioux 603 82.38% 117 15.98% 12 1.64% 486 66.40% 732
Stanton 1,781 71.38% 664 26.61% 50 2.01% 1,117 44.77% 2,495
Thayer 1,749 65.78% 860 32.34% 50 1.88% 889 33.44% 2,659
Thomas 331 84.87% 51 13.08% 8 2.05% 280 71.79% 390
Thurston 972 45.72% 1,120 52.68% 34 1.60% -148 -6.96% 2,126
Valley 1,657 68.39% 706 29.14% 60 2.47% 951 39.25% 2,423
Washington 6,425 62.26% 3,711 35.96% 184 1.78% 2,714 26.30% 10,320
Wayne 2,503 65.73% 1,249 32.80% 56 1.47% 1,254 32.93% 3,808
Webster 1,233 67.86% 552 30.38% 32 1.76% 681 37.48% 1,817
Wheeler 334 75.91% 96 21.82% 10 2.27% 238 54.09% 440
York 4,848 73.81% 1,607 24.47% 113 1.72% 3,241 49.34% 6,568
Totals 452,979 56.53% 333,319 41.60% 14,983 1.87% 119,660 14.93% 801,281
 
County Flips:

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

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Congressional district

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John McCain carried two of the state's three congressional districts, while Barack Obama carried one congressional district held by a Republican.

District McCain Obama Representative
1st 54.10% 44.33% Jeff Fortenberry
2nd 48.75% 49.97% Lee Terry
3rd 68.64% 29.63% Adrian Smith

Electors

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Main article: List of 2008 United States presidential electors

Technically the voters of Nebraska cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Nebraska is allocated 5 electors because it has 3 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 5 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded 2 electoral votes, and the other 3 are allocated via the individual results of the congressional districts. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.[27] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the 5 members of the Electoral College from the state. 4 of the electors were pledged to John McCain and Sarah Palin; 2 at large, 1 for each of the 1st and 3rd Congressional districts. 1 was pledged to Barack Obama and Joe Biden:

See also

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References

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  1. ^ "D.C.'s Political Report: The complete source for campaign summaries". January 1, 2009. Archived from the original on January 1, 2009. Retrieved October 23, 2022.
  2. ^ "Presidential". May 5, 2015. Archived from the original on May 5, 2015. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
  3. ^ "Vote 2008 - The Takeaway - Track the Electoral College vote predictions". April 22, 2009. Archived from the original on April 22, 2009. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
  4. ^ "Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily". electoral-vote.com. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
  5. ^ a b c d Based on Takeaway
  6. ^ "POLITICO's 2008 Swing State Map - POLITICO.com". www.politico.com. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
  7. ^ "RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map". Archived from the original on June 5, 2008.
  8. ^ "CQ Presidential Election Maps, 2008". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on June 14, 2009. Retrieved December 20, 2009.
  9. ^ Nagourney, Adam; Zeleny, Jeff; Carter, Shan (November 4, 2008). "The Electoral Map: Key States". The New York Times. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  10. ^ "October – 2008 – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs". CNN. October 31, 2008. Archived from the original on June 19, 2010. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  11. ^ "Winning The Electoral College". Fox News. April 27, 2010.
  12. ^ "roadto270". hosted.ap.org. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
  13. ^ "Election 2008: Electoral College Update - Rasmussen Reports". www.rasmussenreports.com. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
  14. ^ Election 2008 Polls – Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections
  15. ^ "Presidential Campaign Finance". Archived from the original on March 24, 2009. Retrieved August 19, 2009.
  16. ^ "Map: Campaign Ad Spending - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  17. ^ YouTube – Barack Obama Omaha Rally
  18. ^ "Map: Campaign Candidate Visits - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  19. ^ "Obama Camp Targets Omaha: Obama Makes A Play In Nebraska, One Of Only Two States That Can Split It's Electoral Votes", CBS. Retrieved 9/27/08.
  20. ^ Bratton, A.J. "Hundreds visit Obama's Omaha headquarters", Associated Press. September 10, 2008. Retrieved 9/27/08.
  21. ^ "Senators To Campaign In Omaha For Obama" Archived September 27, 2011, at the Wayback Machine, KETV. September 12, 2008. Retrieved 9/27/08.
  22. ^ Leip, David. "Presidential General Election Map Comparison Nebraska". Retrieved April 19, 2009.
  23. ^ "CNN Election Center 2008 – Nebraska Results". Retrieved November 23, 2008.
  24. ^ "Omaha.com Elections Section". Archived from the original on November 10, 2008. Retrieved November 23, 2008.
  25. ^ "Obama wins electoral votes in Omaha", Omaha World-Herald. November 8, 2008. Retrieved 11/11/08.
  26. ^ "Election Results 2008". New York Times. Archived from the original on November 3, 2004. Retrieved April 19, 2009.
  27. ^ "Electoral College". California Secretary of State. Archived from the original on October 30, 2008. Retrieved November 1, 2008.
  28. ^ a b c d e Nebraska Certificate of Ascertainment, page 1 of 3.. National Archives and Records Administration.
  29. ^ Elector casts first Nebraska Democratic vote in 44 years, Omaha World-Herald.
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