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2008 Bavarian state election

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The 2008 Bavarian state election was held on 28 September 2008 to elect the members of the Landtag of Bavaria. The result was a historic defeat for the Christian Social Union (CSU), which had governed with a majority uninterrupted since 1962, and had won over 60% of the vote in the 2003 election. Despite polling suggesting that the party would retain its majority with losses, it suffered a 17% swing and came up two seats short of a majority, its worst result since 1954. Minister-President and CSU leader Günther Beckstein subsequently resigned from both posts, and the Landtag elected Horst Seehofer as his successor after the CSU and Free Democratic Party (FDP) came to a coalition agreement.

2008 Bavarian state election
← 2003 28 September 2008 2013 →
All 187 seats in the Landtag of Bavaria
94 seats needed for a majority
Turnout10,612,275 (58.1%)
Increase 1.0%
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Günther Beckstein Franz Maget [de] Hubert Aiwanger
Party CSU SPD FW
Last election 124 seats, 60.7% 41 seats, 19.6% 0 seats, 4.0%
Seats won 92 39 21
Seat change Decrease 32 Decrease 2 Increase 21
Popular vote 4,603,960 1,972,437 1,085,896
Percentage 43.4% 18.6% 10.2%
Swing Decrease 17.3% Decrease 1.0% Increase 6.2%
  Fourth party Fifth party
 
Leader Sepp Daxenberger Martin Zeil
Party Greens FDP
Last election 15 seats, 7.7% 0 seats, 2.6%
Seats won 19 16
Seat change Increase 4 Increase 16
Popular vote 999,111 847,227
Percentage 9.4% 8.0%
Swing Increase 1.7% Increase 5.4%
Results for the single-member constituencies.
Minister-President before election

Günther Beckstein
CSU

Elected Minister-President

Horst Seehofer
CSU

The Free Voters of Bavaria entered the Landtag for the first time with 10% of the vote; the FDP also won seats for the first time in 14 years. The Left competed in its first Bavarian election, recording a modest result of 4.3%, but failing to win any seats.

Parties

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The table below lists parties represented in the 15th Landtag of Bavaria.

Name Ideology Leader(s) 2003 result
Votes (%) Seats
CSU Christian Social Union in Bavaria
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 		Christian democracy Günther Beckstein 60.7%
124 / 180
SPD Social Democratic Party of Germany
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 		Social democracy Franz Maget 19.6%
41 / 180
Grüne Alliance 90/The Greens
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 		Green politics Sepp Daxenberger 7.7%
15 / 180

Opinion polling

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Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size 		CSU SPD Grüne FW FDP Linke ÖDP Others Lead
2008 state election 28 Sep 2008 – 43.4 18.6 9.4 10.2 8.0 4.3 2.0 4.1[a] 24.8
GMS 20–21 Sep 2008 1,010 48 19 10 7 7 4 1 4[b] 29
Emnid 10–18 Sep 2008 1,010 49 20 8 7 8 5 – 3 29
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 16–18 Sep 2008 1,105 47 20 8 8 9 4 – 4 27
Infratest dimap 15–17 Sep 2008 1,000 47 21 9 7 8 4 – 4 26
Forsa 8–12 Sep 2008 1,101 50 19 9 8 6 4 – 4 31
GMS 6–8 Sep 2008 1,006 49 19 11 5 7 4 2 3[c] 30
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 28–30 Jul 2008 1,038 50 20 9 7 6 4 – 4 30
Infratest dimap 24–28 Jul 2008 1,000 48 22 9 5 8 4 – 4 26
Emnid 23 Jun–17 Jul 2008 ~500 51 19 9 – 7 5 – 9[d] 32
TNS Infratest 3–8 Jul 2008 1,000 48 21 11 5 8 4 – 3 27
GMS 8–9 Jul 2008 1,006 50 20 8 4 5 5 2 6[e] 30
GMS 2–6 Jun 2008 1,009 49 20 9 5 5 5 2 5[f] 29
Infratest dimap 28–30 Apr 2008 1,000 48 23 10 5 6 4 – 4 25
mifm München 21–23 Apr 2008 1,000 44 20 11 9 9 3 – 4 24
mifm München 4–14 Apr 2008 1,001 40 19 12 11 11 4 – 3 21
GMS 8–14 Apr 2008 1,010 51 20 10 4 6 4 1 4 31
GMS 31 Mar–6 Apr 2008 1,512 50 21 10 4 5 4 – 6 29
Emnid 13–27 Feb 2008 ~500 51 19 11 3 6 4 – 6 32
mifm München 31 Jan–7 Feb 2008 1,000 50 20 11 4 7 3 – 5 30
Infratest dimap 3–7 Jan 2008 1,000 52 21 10 2 6 3 – 6 31
Emnid 10 Dec 2007–2 Jan 2008 800 54 20 10 – 6 4 – 6 34
GMS 2–3 Jan 2008 1,004 56 21 9 3 4 3 1 3[g] 34
GMS 12–17 Dec 2007 1,010 55 20 9 4 5 3 – 4 35
Forsa 5–27 Nov 2007 1,002 56 17 9 3 4 4 – 7 39
mifm München 29 Oct–7 Nov 2007 1,000 53.8 19.1 9.9 1.7 7 3.2 – 5.3 34.7
GMS 21–22 Oct 2007 1,001 54 23 10 3 4 3 1 2[h] 31
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 24–26 Sep 2007 1,143 56 22 9 4 4 3 – 2 34
mifm München 7–15 Sep 2007 1,003 53 17 10 3 7 3 1.7 4.9[i] 36
Forsa 29 Aug–17 Sep 2007 1,003 57 19 9 2 4 3 – 6 38
Forsa 28–30 Jul 2007 1,002 58 17 9 3 4 3 – 6 41
TNS Infratest 17–19 Jul 2007 1,000 54 22 11 – 5 3 – 5 32
dimap 13–19 Jul 2007 1,000 58 18 11 – 4 4 – 5 40
GMS 13–18 Jun 2007 1,010 54 18 9 4 8 3 – 4 36
Forsa 4–14 Jun 2007 1,001 56 16 9 3 6 3 – 7 40
Forsa 25 Apr–8 May 2007 1,036 56 17 9 3 6 3 – 6 39
Forsa 19 Mar–2 Apr 2007 1,012 54 20 9 3 4 3 – 7 34
Infratest dimap 22–25 Mar 2007 1,002 53 23 10 2 6 2 – 4 30
GMS 5–8 Mar 2007 1,012 53 20 9 4 7 2 1 4[j] 33
Forsa 15–26 Feb 2007 1,002 53 19 9 3 6 3 – 7 34
GMS 22–25 Jan 2007 1,011 52 22 9 4 7 2 2 2[k] 30
Infratest dimap 19–20 Jan 2007 1,000 52 24 9 – 7 – – 8 28
Infratest dimap 15 Jan 2007 1,000 50 24 11 – 8 – – 7 26
Forsa 10–12 Jan 2007 1,007 49 22 9 3 6 4 – 7 27
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 12–13 Jan 2007 1,142 45 27 10 – 9 – – 9 18
Infratest dimap 3–4 Jan 2007 1,000 54 22 9 – 7 – – 8 32
Forsa 27–29 Dec 2006 1,009 54 18 9 3 5 4 – 7 36
GMS 18–23 Dec 2006 1,006 54 20 10 2 8 2 2 2[l] 34
Forsa 24 Nov–5 Dec 2006 1,026 56 17 10 2 5 4 – 6 39
Forsa 23 Oct–7 Nov 2006 1,004 54 19 9 2 7 3 – 6 35
GMS 6–8 Oct 2006 1,002 53 22 8 3 8 3 1 2[m] 31
Forsa 18 Sep–4 Oct 2006 1,006 54 18 9 2 8 3 – 6 36
Infratest dimap 28 Sep–1 Oct 2006 1,000 49 24 10 2 8 1 – 6 25
Forsa 20 Aug–5 Sep 2006 1,005 58 16 10 – 6 3 – 7 42
Forsa 3–12 Jul 2006 1,004 56 16 10 3 6 4 – 5 40
GMS 9–14 Jun 2006 1,002 54 18 11 2.0 8 2.5 – 4.5 36
Forsa 12–17 May 2006 1,002 52 18 9 3 10 3 – 5 34
Emnid 20 Apr–9 May 2006 1,000 53 23 9 – 5 – – 10 30
Forsa 22–24 Feb 2006 1,003 52 21 9 4 6 3 – 5 31
Infratest dimap 12–15 Jan 2006 1,000 53 22 10 2 7 2[n] – 4 31
Forsa 4–11 Jan 2006 1,114 49 24 10 – 6 3[o] – 8[p] 25
Peinelt 17 Nov–9 Dec 2005 1,067 45.9 21.5 8.6 4.2 11.8 – – 8.0[q] 24.4
GMS 17–21 Dec 2005 1,001 56 22 7 4 4 2 1 4[r] 34
Infratest dimap 15–16 Nov 2005 1,000 45 24 10 – 11 3 – 7 21
Forsa 4–7 Nov 2005 1,001 49 21 9 – 9 4 – 8[s] 28
Infratest dimap 21–24 Jul 2005 1,000 59 18 9 – 4 4 – 6 41
Infratest dimap 5–9 Jan 2005 1,000 56 22 10 – 5 – – 7 34
Infratest dimap 21–25 Jul 2004 1,000 58 17 12 – 5 – – 8 41
GMS 17–20 Mar 2004 1,009 61.0 19.0 10.0 1.5 3.0 0.5 2.0 3.0[t] 42
Infratest dimap 2–5 Jan 2004 1,000 62 19 9 – 3 – – 7 43
2003 state election 21 Sep 2003 – 60.7 19.6 7.7 4.0 2.6 – 2.0 3.4[u] 41.1

Election result

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PartyVotes% /–Seats /–
Christian Social Union (CSU)4,603,96043.38-17.392-32
Social Democratic Party (SPD)1,972,43718.59-1.039-2
Free Voters of Bavaria (FW)1,085,89610.23 6.221 21
Alliance 90/The Greens (Grüne)999,1119.41 1.719 4
Free Democratic Party (FDP)847,2277.98 5.416 16
The Left (Linke)461,7554.35New0New
Ecological Democratic Party (ÖDP)212,2002.00–0±0
The Republicans (REP)146,0731.38-0.90±0
National Democratic Party (NPD)123,3991.16 1.20±0
Bavaria Party (BP)116,4641.10 0.30±0
Pensioners' Party (RRP)19,7600.19New0New
The Violets (Violetten)15,4650.15New0New
Citizens' Bloc (BB)7,3060.07–0±0
Civil Rights Movement Solidarity (BüSo)1,2220.01-0.10±0
Total10,612,275100.00–187–
Popular vote
CSU
 
 43.38%
SPD
 
 18.59%
FW
 
 10.23%
B'90/GRÜNE
 
 9.41%
FDP
 
 7.98%
DIE LINKE
 
 4.35%
Other
 
 6.06%
Landtag seats
CSU
 
 49.19%
SPD
 
 20.86%
FW
 
 11.23%
B'90/GRÜNE
 
 10.16%
FDP
 
 8.56%

See also

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Notes

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  1. ^ 1.4% REP, 2.7% Other
  2. ^ 1% Right-wing parties, 3% Other
  3. ^ 1% Right-wing parties, 2% Other
  4. ^ 2% Right-wing parties, 7% Other
  5. ^ 2% Right-wing parties, 4% Other
  6. ^ 2% Right-wing parties, 3% Other
  7. ^ 1% Right-wing parties, 2% Other
  8. ^ 1% Right-wing parties, 1% Other
  9. ^ 2.3% REP, 1.1% BP, 1.5% Other
  10. ^ 1% Right-wing parties, 3% Other
  11. ^ 1% Right-wing parties, 1% Other
  12. ^ 1% Right-wing parties, 1% Other
  13. ^ 1% Right-wing parties, 1% Other
  14. ^ WASG
  15. ^ WASG
  16. ^ 3% Right-wing parties, 5% Other
  17. ^ 4.3% REP, 3.7% Other
  18. ^ 2% Right-wing parties, 2% Other
  19. ^ 3% Right-wing parties, 5% Other
  20. ^ 1.0% REP, 2.0% Other
  21. ^ 2.2% REP, 1.2% Other

References

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